Welcome back, champions! The NFL regular season is officially in the books, which means the fantasy football championships are complete! Congratulations on your championship.
But the fun doesn’t have to end with all the ways we can play fantasy football into the real-life NFL playoffs.
As we head into Divisonal Round Weekend, my focus is playoff outlooks for players. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays and player props. I will address the remaining non-playoff teams, and bye-week teams will be featured in upcoming articles throughout January and the NFL offseason.
Regardless, my goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
PrizePicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly!
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Divisional Round Weekend. Roll those season-long winnings into even more cash with playoff football on the horizon. And can’t forget it’s prime contract incentive season.
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Divisional Round Weekend Fantasy Football Forecast
Houston Texans
Sell Joe Mixon | Stock Up Nico Collins & John Metchie | Stock Down Dalton Schultz
The Houston Texans had a solid offensive outing, led by running back Joe Mixon, who carried the ball 25 times for 106 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt and scoring a touchdown with a long run of 17 yards. He totaled four red zone carries.
Mixon has rushed for under 69.5 yards in five of his last eight games with a full allotment of snaps. He was held to 57 rushing yards the last time he faced KC. Take the LESS THAN on rushing prop on Prizepicks (60.5 rushing yards) this week for the divisional round.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud contributed in the rushing game as well, rushing for 42 yards on six attempts, averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
Dameon Pierce added 15 yards on two attempts, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Dare Ogunbowale chipped in with 5 yards on a single attempt. Pierce had zero carries in the first half.
In the passing game, Stroud completed 22 of his 33 attempts for 282 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception.
Nico Collins was the standout receiver, hauling in 7 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown, with his longest reception going for 41 yards. Collins earned nine targets, and his Target share was 24% to go with 115 air yards (39% air yards share).
Stroud had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeting Collins in the game (Next Gen Stats).
Collins is the WR1 and WR2 on this Texans offense.
Xavier Hutchinson added 34 yards on a 1-catch performance, receiving two targets.
John Metchie registered four catches for 28 yards, tying a team-high eight targets (not including penalties). All eight of Metchie’s targets came in the first half of the game. The former Alabama WR was targeted on 35% of his routes run. Probably an easy prop to take the MORE THAN with his receiving prop listed at 2.5 receptions against the Chiefs.
Metchie has at least two receptions in seven of his last eight games. Note that he did not play in the first matchup against the Chiefs earlier this season.
Tight end Cade Stover also contributed, catching four passes for 28 yards with four targets (36% target rate per route run).
Dalton Schultz added 23 yards on two receptions, receiving four targets (one end-zone target). Schultz still played the most tight end snaps at 73% and ran the second-most routes on the team, but he was not involved. Even so, Schultz has just 29-plus receiving yards in five of his last nine games.
Robert Woods caught two passes for 22 yards on four targets, while Mixon contributed 13 yards on a catch from 2 targets.
Diontae Johnson rounded out the receiving corps with 12 yards on one reception, also earning one target. Johnson only played 22% of the snaps, but he ran more routes than Hutchinson and just one fewer than Woods. I expected his role to grow from last week, and that’s exactly what happened with him carving out a role in the No. 3 WR rotation. However, this expanded role was shortly-lived. Johnson was released by the Texans on Tuesday. Woof.
Houston pulled off a big upset home win over the Los Angeles Chargers to advance in the NFL playoffs.
They pressured Justin Herbert on 19 of 36 dropbacks (52.8%), according to Next Gen Stats.
The Texans’ defense stood out in their Wild Card win, allowing -0.58 EPA per play, the fourth-fewest by any defense in a game this season (including the playoffs) and the fewest by any defense in a playoff game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
The Chiefs will host the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, a rematch of the Week 16 contest played in Kansas City.
Here’s what happened in the first matchup per the Week 17 fantasy football forecast:
The Texans utilized a balanced rushing attack in Week 16. Joe Mixon led the team with 14 carries for 57 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, although he did not reach the end zone. Mixon played 66% of the snaps.
Mixon has rushed for under 60.5 yards in four of his last six games. His opening rushing yards prop opened at 66.5 rushing yards on Prizepicks. One RB this season has surpassed that number this season (Saquon Barkley) against the Ravens. Slam the LESS THAN.
C.J. Stroud, the team’s quarterback, contributed on the ground with two carries for 23 yards, boasting an 11.5 yards per carry average. Dameon Pierce also added a carry for 4 yards, with a 4.0-yard average.
Stroud had a productive day through the air, completing 23 of 39 attempts for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 73.0.
According to Next Gen Stats, Stroud threw both interceptions, targeting Collins against split-safety shells. He also struggled against pressure, completing 5 of 15 for 82 yards, a touchdown, and an interception (-6.8% CPOE).
He orchestrated an efficient passing offense led by Tank Dell, who caught six passes for 98 yards, including a touchdown. Dell was targeted 7 times, contributing to 40% of the team’s Target share, and he made a significant impact with an air yardage of 132 yards, showcasing his downfield ability with a 19 average depth of target (aDOT). Unfortunately, on his TD reception, he suffered a gruesome knee injury.
Nico Collins was also heavily involved, receiving 10 targets and recording seven catches for 60 yards. Collins was key in maintaining possession and moving the chains, earning 93 air yards and a 9.30 aDOT. Collins’ consistent involvement resulted in a 28% Target share.
Tight end Dalton Schultz continued to be a safety valve for Stroud, grabbing five receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown (22% Target share, two red-zone targets). Schultz, who was targeted 8 times, posted a solid 5.5-yard average per reception and was used effectively in the red zone. Robert Woods, another trusted target, caught three passes for 19 yards.
Xavier Hutchinson caught one pass for 8 yards, while Dameon Pierce and Joe Mixon were minimally involved in the passing game, with Mixon contributing a 14-yard reception despite negative air yards. Dare Ogunbowale did not register any catches, finishing with zero yards.
Woods posted a solid 22% Target share. He and Hutchinson will likely take on a larger role in Week 17 with Dell out the rest of the season. However, Woods’s role will likely be reduced if John Metchie returns in Week 17 (he was inactive in Week 16).
The biggest winner for Week 17 will be Schultz, given the plus matchup versus the Ravens. He can be a TE1 in the fantasy football championship round.
He plays a near-every-down role and ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks against Kansas City (27% target rate per route run). Schultz has 33-plus receiving yards in four of his last six games. Eight of the last 12 TEs to play Baltimore have exceeded their receiving yards prop. Take the MORE than on his 36.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks for Christmas Day.
Baltimore Ravens
Stock Up Derrick Henry | Stock Down Ravens Passing Game
The Ravens had an impressive offensive performance, especially in the running game, led by running back Derrick Henry in the Wild Card round against the Steelers. Henry carried the ball 26 times for 186 yards, averaging an impressive 7.2 yards per carry, and scored two touchdowns, including a long run of 44 yards. Henry has 100 rushing yards in the first half.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson was also a key contributor on the ground, rushing 15 times for 81 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Jackson did not score a rushing touchdown but was heavily involved in the offense.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for 267 rushing yards in Baltimore’s Wild Card win over the Steelers.
That is the second-most rushing yards by a QB-RB duo in a playoff game in NFL history, trailing only Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore‘s 300 combined rush yards in the 2012 Divisional Round.
Given how much success they had rushing the ball versus Pittsburgh and against Buffalo in the Week 4 matchup, I’d expect offensive coordinator Todd Monken to call a similar gameplan against the Bills in the Divisional Round.
In the passing game, Jackson completed 16 of 21 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 132.0. Jackson spread the ball across multiple receivers, with tight end Isaiah Likely leading the team in receiving with three catches for 53 yards on four targets, including a long reception of 25 yards. The Ravens No. 2 TE led all skill players with an 80% snap rate.
The Ravens QB has thrown for fewer than 223.5 passing yards in five of his last eight contests. His Prizepicks passing yards line opened at 232.5 passing yards.
Mark Andrews caught two passes for 27 yards on four targets, while Nelson Agholor added a reception for 25 yards. Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace both contributed with one touchdown reception, each seeing two targets apiece. Bateman caught two passes for 24 yards, while Wallace added a 21-yard reception. Bateman led the Ravens in routes run with Zay Flowers out.
Justice Hill, a running back, also caught all four of his targets for 13 yards, including a touchdown.
In terms of Target share, Likely led the team with four targets, followed by Andrews and Hill with three targets each. Bateman and Wallace had two targets each, while Agholor received one target. Anthony Miller had three targets on just five routes run.
Without Flowers in the lineup, the Ravens offense utilized 2-TE sets on a season-high 69.4% of plays, their second-straight game over the 60% mark (68.7% in Week 18 vs CLE) – Next Gen Stats.
Across 50 plays with two tight ends on the field, the Ravens posted a 58.0% offensive success rate and 6.0 yards per play. During the regular season, the Ravens’ offense averaged 7.1 yards per play with 2+ tight ends on the field, the most in the NFL and the only team over 6.0.
With the home win over the Steelers, the Ravens will face the Bills on the road in a rematch of Week 4.
Here’s how that game shook out (excerpt from the Week 5 fantasy football forecast) from the Ravens’ perspective as they won 35-10 at home.
Lamar Jackson completed 13 of 18 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns, with a passer rating of 135.4.
Derrick Henry dominated with 24 carries for 199 yards, averaging 8.3 YPC, including a long run of 87 yards that was the game’s opening play. Henry had one catch on one target for 10 yards.
Lamar Jackson rushed six times for 54 yards, with a long run of 19 yards and one rushing touchdown.
Justice Hill added four carries for 18 yards, with a long run of 11. Hill also caught all six of his targets for 78 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 19 yards and 67 yards after the catch.
Isaiah Likely caught one of two targets for 26 yards.
Rashod Bateman caught one of two targets for 23 yards. He had another target in the end zone that fell short of a score.
Nelson Agholor caught two of three targets for 10 yards.
Zay Flowers had one reception on two targets for 10 yards.
Mark Andrews was targeted once but dropped the pass. Woof.
Jackson completed just four passes to WRs in Week 4.
The sheer dominance of Henry and Jackson in the ground game has nuked the Ravens’ pass-catchers the last two weeks.
Last week, I cited that the Ravens receivers had suppressed betting prop lines because of Lamar Jackson‘s severe lack of passes in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his entire career where he played the full game.
Week 4 was the fifth-lowest of his career.
The lack of passing volume will eventually regress to the mean in games where Baltimore isn’t so fortunate to play from ahead. They are facing two top offenses in the next two weeks, so you could see the passing game seeing more volume.
Flowers is an easy trade target as a result. He had a team-high 26% Target share while leading the team in receptions.
As for Mark Andrews. Well, you can’t start him anytime soon. That’s pretty self-explanatory. Should you drop him outright? In shallow leagues where you might only roster one tight end, he’s a drop. But I still think Andrews has a place in deeper formats where you are streaming the position. Given his usage, playing time, and overwhelming lack of production, he’s at his rock-bottom floor at the moment. The game scripts haven’t helped. But Andrews dropping wide open passes isn’t helping either.
I want to be clear that you shouldn’t just cut Andrews because you’re tilting. He’s still a tight end (bad position) attached to an elite quarterback with a long track record of success. It cannot get worse for Andrews. But if you need to make a move for a starting tight end in Week 5, then Andrews is on the chopping block.
Note that at this point, Likely should be viewed ahead of Andrews. He’s already flashed a ceiling this season and has seen superior usage to Andrews.
Andrews ran a route on just 41% of the dropbacks. Identical to Agholor and fewer than Justice Hill. It was more than less week, but nowhere near where we want our fantasy tight ends. Even “if” the Ravens throw more, there’s no guarantee that Andrews is the main benefactor between Likely and Flowers based on how few routes he is running. His role is different from last season, so he’s not usable in fantasy until we see something otherwise.
Buffalo Bills
Stock Up Khalil Shakir | Sell James Cook
The Bills had a solid ground game, with James Cook leading the charge. Cook carried the ball 23 times for 120 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown with a long rush of 19 yards.
Two RBs this season have surpassed 55.5 rushing yards this season (Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris) against the Ravens’ stout run defense. Take the LESS THAN 54.5 rushing yards for Cook on Prizepicks (opened at 53.5 rushing yards).
Quarterback Josh Allen also contributed to the running game, rushing 8 times for 46 yards (5.8 avg), but he did not score. Ty Johnson rushed 9 times for 44 yards (thrice in the red zone), averaging 4.9 yards per carry, while Ray Davis added minimal yardage. The rookie RB suffered a concussion in the third quarter.
Allen had an efficient game through the air, completing 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns, with a passer rating of 135.4. He orchestrated the offense with accuracy and precision, throwing no interceptions and leading the team down the field effectively.
Curtis Samuel had three targets, catching all 3 for 68 yards, including a touchdown with a long gain of 55 yards. Samuel played a lot more than he usually does (39% snap share), and he scored on a big play.
Khalil Shakir contributed six catches for 61 yards. Shakir led the team with a 23% Target share (6 targets). He was the only Bills player to see more than three targets.
Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in 10 of 16 games this season. Take the MORE THAN 49.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks (opened at 47.5 yards).
Shakir caught four of five targets for 62 yards, with a long reception of 52 yards and 26 yards after the catch (18% Target share) the last time he faced the Ravens.
Dalton Kincaid added 47 yards on three receptions but did not score (three targets). He led the team in targets the last time he faced the Ravens: He caught five of a team-leading seven targets for 47 yards, with a long reception of 25 yards and 33 yards after the catch, a 24% Target share and 33% target rate.
Take the MORE THAN 30.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks (opened at 27.5 receiving yards). It’s just too low a bar to pass, given the matchup against the Ravens, who have struggled against TEs this season (not-named Pat Freiermuth).
Dawson Knox caught two passes for 38 yards (three targets), but he didn’t score on his lone end-zone target. Knox out-snapped Kincaid (61% to 38%), although the former ran more routes.
Ty Johnson had two catches for 26 yards and a beautiful sliding touchdown, showcasing his versatility as a receiver out of the backfield.
Johnson led the Bills RBs in routes run, and he split snaps with Cook 45% apiece in the Wild Card Round.
Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper, and Keon Coleman also made minor contributions, with Hollins catching one pass for 19 yards (two targets), Cooper 2 for 8 yards (three targets), and Coleman 1 for 5 yards (three targets).
Coleman remained the No.1 WR ahead of both Hollins/Cooper in routes run. Cooper had an end-zone target but did not score.
Hollins almost scored in his single reception near the end zone, but drew a taunting penalty that cost Buffalo red-zone yardage instead.
Here’s how that game shook out (excerpt from the Week 5 fantasy football forecast) from the Bills’ perspective.
Josh Allen completed 16 of 29 passes for 180 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, posting a passer rating of 73.9. Allen rushed five times for 21 yards, averaging 4.2 YPC.
James Cook had nine carries for 39 yards, averaging 4.3 YPC with a long run of 7 yards. Cook caught his only target for 9 yards.
Ray Davis carried the ball seven times for 11 yards.
Curtis Samuel had one carry for 7 yards.
Ty Johnson rushed once for 3 yards and scored a rushing touchdown from inside the red zone.
Khalil Shakir caught four of five targets for 62 yards, with a long reception of 52 yards and 26 yards after the catch (18% Target share).
Rookie Keon Coleman caught three of four targets for 51 yards, with a long catch of 24 yards. He made a couple of nice sideline catches.
Dalton Kincaid caught five of a team-leading seven targets for 47 yards, with a long reception of 25 yards and 33 yards after the catch. 24% Target share and 33% target rate. Encouraging usage for the second-year tight end, who scored back in Week 3.
Curtis Samuel caught one of two targets for 8 yards.
Mack Hollins caught one of six targets for 5 yards (21% Target share).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had no receptions on 1 target.
Dawson Knox had no receptions on one target.
The Bills ran into a buzzsaw (Derrick Henry) on Sunday Night Football, and they just couldn’t match the Ravens’ production. But that hardly means the sky is falling on this offense. After a prime-time dud, all Bills should be at the top of your trade target lists.
Shakir leads the Bills through four games with a 19.4% Target share. Coleman leads the Bills with a 22.3% air yards share (166).
Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Up Dallas Goedert | Buy Low A.J. Brown
The Philadelphia Eagles had a lackluster offensive performance during Wild Card Weekend, led by Saquon Barkley, who carried the ball 25 times for 119 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He was also the focal point of their rushing attack, with his longest run being 17 yards. He had a house call rush at the end of the game that could have been a 76-yard TD run, but the Eagles RB slid instead so the offense could ice the game. He did not score on his four red-zone rushes.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts contributed significantly on the ground, rushing for 36 yards on six attempts with a 6.0-yard average while also completing 13 of his 21 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Kenneth Gainwell added 14 yards on 3 carries for a 4.7-yard average.
In the passing game, Hurts struggled to find consistency, but he was efficient to help Philly win.
According to Next Gen Stats, Hurts was efficient passing from a clean pocket in the Eagles’ win over the Packers, completing 10 of his 12 passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns without pressure.
When under duress, Hurts finished 3 of 9 for 23 yards, including two sacks. During the regular season, Hurts completed just 45.3% of his passes under pressure (10th-lowest in NFL) while taking a sack on 25.9% of such dropbacks (3rd-highest), though he did complete 77.1% of his passes from a clean pocket (4th-highest).
Wide receiver DeVonta Smith led the team with four receptions for 55 yards on four targets but did not score.
Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone over 5.5 receptions.
Over the past two seasons, Smith has gone under 5.5 catches with his two teammates healthy in 78% of his games (14/18).
Tight end Dallas Goedert was another key target, finishing with four receptions for 47 yards and one touchdown on a team-high six targets. He was targeted on 35% of his routes run in a favorable matchup versus the Packers linebackers.
All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2. Goedert played a key role with a 26% Target share, catching 4 of 5 targets for 19 yards the last time he played the Rams (although DeVonta Smith was hurt). He also saw two red zone targets but couldn’t find the end zone.
Jahan Dotson also caught the game’s first touchdown after a special teams fumble by Green Bay, hauling in 1 catch for 11 yards (two targets).
A.J. Brown was held to just one reception for 10 yards on just three targets and was caught on the sideline reading a book. Apparently, he has been doing this all season. Worth noting that three targets is the fewest he has had in a game all season,
Barkley also caught two passes for 4 yards. Finally, backup tight end Grant Calcaterra had one reception for 4 yards on his lone target.
The Eagles lost linebacker Nakobe Dean, but their defense still showed out.
They limited Jordan Love to 3-of-11 passing for 58 yards & 3 interceptions on passes of 10+ air yards (-14.6% CPOE).
Rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell was targeted 6 times as the nearest defender, allowing only two receptions for 10 yards and an interception with an average target separation of 1.6 yards.
All but two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly’s defense since their bye week.
With the win, Philly will host the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
This is a rematch of Week 12. Here’s the summary from the Week 13 Fantasy Football Forecast:
Jalen Hurts completed 15 of 22 passes for 179 yards, throwing one touchdown and no interceptions. He maintained an efficient 68.2% completion rate with a passer rating of 108.0, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
Saquon Barkley was unstoppable on the ground, racking up 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per attempt. He had a long run of 72 yards and handled eight red zone touches.
Fantasy football’s RB1. There’s no debate.
Jalen Hurts chipped in 39 rushing yards on 12 attempts, often keeping the chains moving with his legs.
Kenneth Gainwell carried five times for 22 yards and a touchdown, scoring on his lone red zone carry. He cashed the anytime TD bet. Follow me on BettingPros.
A.J. Brown dominated the passing attack, catching 6 of 7 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. He commanded a 37% Target share and accounted for a massive 62% of the team’s air yards. His longest reception went for 28 yards.
Saquon Barkley was equally productive as a receiver, hauling in all 4 of his targets for 47 yards, including an 11.8-yard average per catch and a long of 31.
Dallas Goedert played a key role with a 26% Target share, catching 4 of 5 targets for 19 yards. He also saw two red zone targets but couldn’t find the end zone.
Goedert might see some suppressed prices across the board in Week 13, given his lack of yardage. But against the Baltimore Ravens defense, which has been horrible versus tight ends, I’d fully expect him to bounce back. No. 3 for the rest of the season schedule for TEs.
Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson each played small roles in the passing game. Dotson caught his lone target for 4 yards, while Wilson, stepping in for the injured DeVonta Smith, played 70% of the snaps and tied Dotson for third on the team in routes run. Wilson also saw a red zone target but failed to record a catch. He had another target wiped by penalty.
Grant Calcaterra and Johnny Wilson failed to make an impact, each going without a reception on their respective targets.
Barkley continued his stellar play, shouldering the load with eight red zone touches and dominating both the rushing and receiving games.
Brown maintained his role as the clear focal point of the Eagles’ aerial attack, leading in both target and air yard shares.
Wilson stepped up in the absence of DeVonta Smith, running a significant number of routes and earning a red zone opportunity. However, his production was limited.
Washington Commanders
Stock Up Terry McLaurin & Dyami Brown | Stock Down Brian Robinson Jr.
In the rushing game, quarterback Jayden Daniels led the Commanders with 13 carries for 36 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry.
He has 60-plus rushing yards in his three of his last four full starts.
He was followed by running back Austin Ekeler, who had eight carries for 27 yards (3.4 yards per carry), and running back Brian Robinson Jr., who carried the ball 10 times for 16 yards, averaging just 1.6 yards per carry. He carried the ball thrice in the red zone for -3 yards. Stuffed like a Thanksgiving Turkey.
B-Rob has been held under 37.5 rushing yards and in three of his last five games.
Ekeler also contributed to the passing game with three catches for 26 yards. Robinson had four receptions for 22 yards on five targets. Robinson started and played 51% of the snaps, while Ekeler settled at 47%. The RB duo combined for nine targets.
Unfortunately, Robinson didn’t score for the fourth straight week while ceding touches to Ekeler.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Commanders used pony personnel (two true RBs) on nine plays in their Wild Card victory, their 3rd-most in a game this season.
They gained 99 yards across those nine plays, recording a 77.8% success rate and generating +7.5 EPA out of the grouping. During the regular season, the Commanders led the NFL in pony personnel usage (89 plays), production (687 yards), and EPA per play (+0.40).
Backup QB Marcus Mariota added a small contribution with one carry for 2 yards while running back Jeremy McNichols gained 1 yard on his only carry.
In the passing game, Daniels completed 24 of 35 attempts for 268 yards and two touchdowns, maintaining a strong passer rating of 110.2.
The rookie quarterback has exceeded his passing yards projection in four straight games this season (when healthy). With them playing in a projected shootout, it’s best to go right back to MORE THAN on Daniels’ 234.5 passing yards on Prizepicks.
The receiving corps was led by Terry McLaurin, who caught seven passes for 89 yards and one touchdown, with a long of 35 yards on ten targets. The No. 1 WR commanded 124 air yards (59% air yards share) with two end-zone targets and three total in the red zone.
Alongside him, wide receiver Dyami Brown matched his receptions total, also catching all five of his targets for 89 yards and one touchdown, with a long of 30 yards. Brown was the first-half target leader in Week 18 with Daniels, and he showed up big in the playoff win, running the second most routes among the Commanders WRs.
Tight end Zach Ertz recorded two catches for 23 yards. Olamide Zaccheaus caught three passes for 19 yards on three targets, while tight end John Bates did not record any receptions on his one target.
Daniels spread the wealth in the red zone as seven different Commanders WRs earned a red-zone target.
The Commanders will face the Lions at Ford Field in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams
Stock Down Cooper Kupp
The Rams’ rushing attack was spearheaded by running back Kyren Williams, who carried the ball 16 times for 76 yards, averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry. Williams also contributed in the passing game. No. 3 running back Ronnie Rivers had three carries for 8 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry, while Puka Nacua gained 7 yards on his only rush, averaging a strong 7.0 yards per attempt. Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a negative rushing total, losing 1 yard on two carries.
In the passing game, Stafford completed 19 of 27 attempts for 209 yards and two touchdowns, earning a passer rating of 117.7.
Stafford is under 240.5 passing yards in five of his last six games. The last time Stafford played the Eagles, he completed 24 of 36 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
Tight end Tyler Higbee was the top target, catching five passes for 58 yards (45% target rate per route run).
However, Higbee left the game in the first half with a chest injury and did not return. Despite the limited playing time, he led the Rams in receiving yards.
Nacua also had a solid game, recording five catches for 44 yards on a team-high nine targets (33% Target share). Cooper Kupp was a reliable target, with one catch for 29 yards on his single target. More notably, Kupp played just 55% of the snaps, with the Rams using a lot of heavy personnel.
In his last six games, Kupp has had more than three catches once, with 13 catches for 190 yards and just 1 TD over that span. 2.1 catches and 31.6 receiving yards per game.
Note that Kupp had a strong outing in the previous matchup versus Philly, catching 8 of 11 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown, earning a 32% Target share. His longest reception spanned 27 yards. But had it not been for the 27-yard TD catch by Kupp late in the fourth quarter in that contest, he would have been a major bust in Week 12 with just seven catches for 33 yards.
Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson caught one pass for 23 yards (two targets), and running back Kyren Williams added three receptions for 16 yards, including a touchdown on three targets. Other notable contributors in the passing game included tight end Colby Parkinson, with two receptions for 13 yards, and TEs Davis Allen and Hunter Long, both with one reception for 13 yards. Long missed a deep pass from Stafford in the second half, leading the team in air yards. Allen scored on his catch, but he played just 36% of the snaps.
Parkinson played the most snaps among Rams TEs at 62%, followed by Long at 42%. It is unknown at this time whether Higbee will be available for the Divisional Round.
CB Ahkello Witherspoon also was injured.
The Rams’ defense was the story of their upset over the Minnesota Vikings, as the pass rush was relentless.
According to Next Gen Stats, Sam Darnold was sacked on a season-high 9 of 50 dropbacks against the Rams (18.0%), resulting in his fewest total EPA generated in a game this season (-27.4).
Six of the nine sacks occurred at least 4.4 seconds after the snap. Darnold struggled under pressure, completing 9-of-17 attempts for 84 yards with one interception (-5.0% CPOE). Twelve different Rams defenders generated pressure on Sam Darnold in the Rams’ wild-card Monday night win, their most in a single game since Week 6, 2021.
The defense will need to play well if they stand a chance against the Eagles on the road.
This is a rematch of Week 12. Here’s the summary from the Week 13 Fantasy Football Forecast:
Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 36 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He posted a 66.7% completion rate with a passer rating of 104.3, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.
Kyren Williams carried the ball 16 times for 72 yards (4.5 YPC) and a touchdown, including a long run of 27 yards. Despite fumbling twice, he maintained a heavy workload, playing 91% of the snaps and handling four red zone touches. He also broke his TD drought and finished with under 20 touches for the third straight week.
Still, the schedule is too good to fully fade him. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have a top-10 most favorable schedule for RBs.
Stafford contributed 15 rushing yards on a single scramble, while Blake Corum chipped in with a 5-yard carry. Keep Corum stashed.
Puka Nacua dominated the passing game, hauling in 9 of 13 targets for 117 yards. He commanded a massive 38% Target share and just under 100 air yards. When factoring in penalties and 2-point conversion attempts, he had a total of 17 targets. His longest reception was 29 yards, showcasing his role as a deep and reliable threat.
Cooper Kupp had a strong outing, catching 8 of 11 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown, earning a 32% Target share. His longest reception spanned 27 yards. Had it not been for the 27-yard TD catch by Kupp late in the fourth quarter, he would have been a major bust in Week 12 with just seven catches for 33 yards.
A reminder that the Eagles’ secondary is legit, especially against slot receivers. According to Next Gen Stats, Cooper DeJean aligned across from Kupp on 9 of his 37 routes (24.3%), the most of any Eagle, allowing three receptions for 11 yards across five targets.
Tutu Atwell made the most of his opportunities, catching all 3 of his targets for 30 yards, averaging 10 yards per catch.
Demarcus Robinson caught 2 of 3 targets for 15 yards, including a touchdown on his lone red zone target.
Tyler Johnson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen contributed minimally, with Johnson recording an 11-yard catch, Parkinson adding 10 yards, and Allen being held without a reception despite leading the tight ends with a 48% snap share over Parkinson’s 30%.
Williams’ heavy usage remained unaffected by his two fumbles as he dominated the backfield snaps and touches.
Robinson capitalized on his red zone opportunity with a touchdown catch. Among tight ends, Davis Allen out-snapped Colby Parkinson, but neither played a significant role in the passing game.
First-round bye week teams
Kansas City Chiefs
Week 18 box score:
Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
Nikko Remigio | WR | KC | 6 | 2 | 48 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 56% | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Justin Watson | WR | KC | 3 | 1 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Peyton Hendershot | TE | KC | 2 | 2 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Samaje Perine | RB | KC | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Noah Gray | TE | KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Carson Steele | RB | KC | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 0 | -5% | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Chiefs rested all their starters back in Week 18
Rookie Carson Steele led the Chiefs’ ground game, rushing 8 times for 25 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with a long rush of 5 yards. Samaje Perine contributed just 1 yard on one carry, and Noah Gray lost 4 yards on his only carry.
In the passing game, Carson Wentz completed 10 of 17 passes for 98 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions and a passer rating of 75.1. He was unable to generate any significant yardage or scoring through the air.
Chiefs WR Nikko Remigio was the top receiver, catching 2 of 6 targets for 48 yards, though he did not score. No. 3 tight end Peyton Hendershot was also productive, hauling in 2 receptions for 25 yards. Samaje Perine caught one pass for 13 yards, while Justin Watson added 5 yards on one reception. JuJu Smith-Schuster had one catch for 4 yards, and Steele and Gray each caught two passes for 2 and 1 yard, respectively.
Watson and Smith-Schuster eat up snaps, but do not contribute much for the Chiefs offensively in the box score.
There are not many takeaways from the Chiefs’ Week 18 game that we can use moving forward because they rested all their starters. If anything, it shows how KC feels about certain players, such as Marquise Brown, who could have easily played given all his time missed this season with injuries.
In just Brown’s second game with the Chiefs on Christmas Day in Week 17, Hollywood recorded four catches for 46 yards and helped keep the chains moving. He had an 18% Target share (7 total targets while being targeted on 37% of his routes), totaling 67 air yards (9.6 aDOT). Brown only played 40% of the snaps, but this is going to increase moving forward in the playoffs.
Brown has 45-plus receiving yards in both games played this season. Take the MORE THAN on his 39.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks (opened at 36.5).
The backfield is still a two-man committee between Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, with Perine sprinkled in.
In Week 17, Hunt led the way with nine carries for 20 yards, including a touchdown. Pacheco added 18 yards on six attempts. Hunt led the snaps with a 48% rate with two red zone carries.
Pacheco has LESS THAN 33 rushing yards in three straight games and was held to 26 yards in the first matchup versus Houston.
Hunt carried the ball 11 times for 55 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown with a long of 20 yards as the lead back for KC in Week 16 versus the Texans.
Although I wouldn’t be surprised if we see this backfield favor Pacheco more out of the extended layoff. Therefore, I like the LESS THAN on Hunt’s 30.5 rushing yards on Prizepicks this week.
Kelce had a throwback performance, as he had a 29% Target share (11 total targets), accounting for 51 air yards and contributing to 24% of the team’s air yards. He caught eight passes for 84 yards.
Xavier Worthy, with 24% of the Target share (9 total targets), caught eight passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Worthy posted a 0.7 aDOT and accumulated just 6 air yards as we used primarily as an underneath YAC option.
According to Next Gen Stats, Worthy hauled in a season-high eight receptions on eight targets for 79 yards and a touchdown, with most of his production coming on open (3+ yards of separation) targets (7 receptions, 58 yards, one touchdown).
Worthy recorded 72 of his yards after the catch (season-high), for +21 yards after the catch over expected, his most in a game in 2024.
The rookie has been coming on in the second half of the season, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11.
He has four catches or more in seven straight games, with 40-plus yards in all contests.
I like the MORE THAN on Worthy’s 48.5 receiving yards this week on PrizePicks.
Worthy was the top receiver for the Chiefs the last time they faced KC, hauling in 7 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown.
DeAndre Hopkins added 7 yards on two receptions on four targets in Week 17, posting a 13% Target share (4 total targets) and 27 air yards. He also played his standard sub-50% snap share.
Hopkins has gone his receiving yards projection in six of his last seven games played with the Chiefs this season.
Patrick Mahomes had tossed for 250-plus passing yards in seven of his last 10 games and in eight of his last 10 home games dating back to last year’s postseason. Take the MORE THAN on 249.5 passing yards this week on PrizePicks (opened 245.5).
The Chiefs will host the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, which is a rematch of the Week 16 contest that was also played in Kansas City.
Houston is coming off a big upset home win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s what happened in the first matchup per the Week 17 fantasy football forecast:
The Chiefs’ running game was led by Kareem Hunt, who carried the ball 11 times for 55 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown with a long of 20 yards. Patrick Mahomes also contributed on the ground, rushing for 33 yards on five attempts (6.6 yards per carry), including an opening touchdown and a long of 15 yards. Isiah Pacheco had nine carries for 26 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy also contributed on the ground with three carries for 10 yards (3.3 yards per carry).
Hunt was used as a receiving option as well, recording two catches for 24 yards, while Samaje Perine contributed three catches for 50 yards. Isiah Pacheco had one catch but gained just -1 yard on the play. He had another catch removed by an offensive holding penalty.
Hunt out-snapped Pacheco 43% to 35%. However, Pacheco did have more carries in the first half (4 vs 2). Hunt ran more routes, which helped push his snaps over Pacheco. Hunt also earned all the carries in the red zone (three) for the Chiefs.
I was afraid this backfield might get messy. KC is reluctant to turn it over fully to Pacheco, and Perine chipping in doesn’t help anyone. Pacheco might also not be healthy.
KC will play @ PIT on Christmas. Sell the backfield.
Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs’ air attack, completing 28 of his 41 attempts for 260 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 93.5.
Mahomes was most efficient in the quick passing game in the Chiefs’ win over the Texans, finishing 17 of 19 for 155 yards and a touchdown on passes under 2.5 seconds (+4.5% CPOE)
Mahomes’ average time to throw of 2.50 seconds was his fastest in a game since Week 4, 2021. Only one of his 41 pass attempts had a time to throw over four seconds, for a 2.4% rate, his lowest mark in a game since Week 1, 2020 (Next Gen Stats).
Worthy was the top receiver for the Chiefs, hauling in 7 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown, with 67 air yards and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.09. Worthy also had a solid Target share of 27% and 29% air yards share. The former Texas product was targeted on 32% of his route run and earned six red-zone opportunities.
According to Next Gen Stats, of Worthy’s 65 receiving yards, 61 came after the catch, the most YAC in a game of Worthy’s rookie season. Worthy caught all seven receptions on short passes (under 10 air yards), recording the shortest average route depth (9.6) of his career.
The rookie has been coming on in the second half of the season, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11. He has four catches or more in six straight games, with 40-plus yards in all contests. I like the MORE THAN on his 44.5 receiving yards in Week 17 and the alternate over on his 3.5 receptions on Prizepicks.
Marquise Brown followed with five receptions for 45 yards, averaging 7 yards per target with 56 air yards. Brown’s Target share was 20% on a total of eight targets. He only played 27% of the snaps in his first NFL game of the season. But he was hyper-targeted, earning a target on 57% of his routes run.
Travis Kelce caught five passes for 30 yards on seven targets (17% Target share, one red-zone target), contributing to the offense without finding the end zone. His aDOT was 4.71, with 33 air yards. This season, Kelce has finished UNDER 45.5 receiving yards in more than half of his games.
DeAndre Hopkins also added four receptions for 37 yards on all four of his targets (had another target removed by a penalty, with an aDOT of 7.75, showing he was used for more intermediate routes, though he didn’t find the end zone. He also played his standard sub-50% snap share, settling at 49% (62% route run rate).
Detroit Lions
Week 18 box score:
Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 8 | 6 | 34 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 42% | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 7 | 6 | 77 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 7 | 7 | 63 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 23% | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Tim Patrick | WR | DET | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kalif Raymond | WR | DET | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 5 | 5 | 31 | -2 | 0 | 1 | -1% | 16% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Craig Reynolds | RB | DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 0 | -5% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jahmyr Gibbs had an outstanding game in Week 18, carrying the ball 23 times for 139 yards, averaging a solid 6.0 yards per carry, and scoring three rushing touchdowns (four total), with a long run of 47 yards. Craig Reynolds contributed 39 yards on eight carries, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, though he did not find the end zone.
David Montgomery did not play, but the reports during the game suggested he would make a return in the postseason. Lions HC Dan Campbell says he expects Montgomery (knee) to be ready for the Divisional Round.
Even so, Montgomery’s knee injury and Gibbs’ stellar play in recent weeks suggests this won’t go back to a full-fledged committee. The Lions can’t afford to be conservative with Gibbs’ touches in the playoffs.
Jared Goff completed 27 of 33 passes for 231 yards. He threw one touchdown and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 80.7. Despite the turnovers, he was able to help the Lions stay efficient through the air.
Goff has recorded 269+ passing yards in six of the Lions’ last eight games. His opening line on Prizepicks for the Divisional round is 267.5 yards. MORE THAN.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the top target, catching 6 of 7 passes for 77 yards, although he was unable to score on a 22% Target share.
Sam LaPorta was also a key contributor, catching all 7 of his targets for 63 yards.
LaPorta has 3.5-plus receptions in five straight games and 4.5 or more in four of his last five.
Jameson Williams added 34 yards on six receptions on a team-high 25% Target share and eight targets, but he did not score. The Lions did right by the third-year WR, throwing him two passes in the fourth quarter up 31-9 to ensure he went over 1,000 receiving yards on the season.
Williams has at least five receptions in six of his last seven games, with 7-plus targets in each contest. Take the MORE THAN on Williams’ 52.5 receiving yards number on PrizePicks and take the over on his 4.5 receptions prop over. It’s plus money on DraftKings Sportsbook (+130).
You can take the MORE THAN on his receptions number on PrizePicks as well. Listed at four receptions. MORE THAN.
Gibbs contributed as a receiver, catching five passes for 31 yards and a touchdown, with his longest reception going for 14 yards.
Gibbs has 30-plus receiving yards in five straight games.
Tim Patrick had two catches for 15 yards, while Kalif Raymond added 11 yards on one reception.
Craig Reynolds was targeted twice but did not record a reception.
The Lions will welcome the Commanders in the Divisional Round.
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