Welcome back, champions! The NFL regular season is officially in the books, which means the fantasy football championships are complete! Congratulations on your championship.
But the fun doesn’t have to end with all the ways we can play fantasy football into the real-life NFL playoffs.
As we head into Wild Card Weekend, my focus is playoff outlooks for players. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays and player props. I will address the remaining non-playoff teams, and bye-week teams will be featured in upcoming articles throughout January.
Regardless, my goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
PrizePicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly!
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Wild Card Weekend. Roll those season-long winnings into even more cash with playoff football on the horizon. And can’t forget it’s prime contract incentive season.
- More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Forecast
Baltimore Ravens
Stock Up Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely & Rashod Bateman | Stock Down Zay Flowers
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 8 | 4 | 54 | 126 | 0 | 1 | 45% | 28% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | 8 | 5 | 76 | 95 | 0 | 1 | 34% | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | BAL | 5 | 3 | 38 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 3 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 10% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | WR | BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 2 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | RB | BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 | -2% | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
On the ground, Derrick Henry was the star of the show, carrying the ball 20 times for 138 yards, averaging 6.9 yards per carry, and scoring two touchdowns. His longest run went for 43 yards, which helped set the tone for the Ravens’ offense. Henry only rushed for 8 yards on six carries in the first half but then exploded in the second half. He also played 70% of the snaps with Justice Hill out again.
Lamar Jackson also contributed significantly in the rushing game, adding 63 yards on nine carries with a 7.0-yard average, although he did not score a touchdown. Keaton Mitchell ran for 10 yards on four carries (2.5 yards per carry), while Zay Flowers gained 9 yards on a single carry. Mark Andrews added a carry but did not gain any yards.
Through the air, Lamar Jackson completed 16 of his 32 passes for 217 yards, tossing two touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 92.8. The passing game saw key contributions from Rashod Bateman, who was targeted 8 times and caught five passes for 76 yards and a touchdown while leading the Ravens in total routes run. Mark Andrews, who also saw eight targets (five in the first half), caught four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. He played 73% of the snaps and was targeted on 32% of his routes run.
Isaiah Likely added 38 yards on three catches from 5 targets but did not score despite a 61% snap share.
Derrick Henry got involved in the passing game as well, catching two passes for 23 yards.
Other receivers contributing included Patrick Ricard, who caught one pass for 14 yards, and Zay Flowers, who had 12 yards on one reception from 2 targets. Flowers left Saturday’s game with a knee injury, although the injury was initially not considered major. Expect him to be limited as the Ravens ramp up to host the Steelers in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. He has been listed as day-to-day so I think he’s a longshot to play.
Tylan Wallace and Rasheen Ali were also involved but did not record any catches. Wallace led the WRs in total snaps played (73%).
Week 19 will be the third time the Ravens will face the Steelers this season. Notable numbers to review based on the previous two matchups this season:
Jackson has thrown for exactly 207 passing yards in both of his matchups versus the Steelers this season.
The Ravens QB has thrown for fewer than 214.5 passing yards in three straight games and five of his last seven contests. LESS THAN on Prizepicks for Week 19, especially if he misses Flowers.
Derrick Henry led the ground attack with 13 carries for 65 yards in the first matchup. In the second game, Henry led the way with 24 carries for 162 yards.
In the first matchup, Isaiah Likely led all pass-catchers with four receptions on five targets for 75 yards. In the second game, Likely caught all 3 of his targets for 29 yards.
Mark Andrews contributed two receptions on three targets for 22 yards. In the second matchup, Andrews caught four passes for 37 yards and one touchdown,
Zay Flowers hauled in 2 of his six targets for 39 yards. In the second game, Flowers had eight targets and caught five passes for 100 yards.
Rashod Bateman caught 2 of his five targets for 30 yards. In the second game, Bateman caught one pass for 14 yards.
Justice Hill recorded four catches on seven targets for 28 yards in the first matchup and got hurt in the second matchup versus Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Stock Up Pat Freiermuth | Stock Down Jaylen Warren
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| George Pickens | WR | PIT | 6 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 43% | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 11 | 8 | 85 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 38% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | WR | PIT | 1 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | WR | PIT | 4 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin | WR | PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | RB | PIT | 5 | 4 | 20 | -4 | 0 | 0 | -2% | 17% | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | -2% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
On the ground, Najee Harris led the team with 12 carries for 36 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown. His longest run was for 11 yards. Jaylen Warren also contributed with six carries for 21 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and had a long run of 9 yards. Russell Wilson ran for 16 yards on four attempts (4.0 yards per carry), while Cordarrelle Patterson had one carry for 1 yard.
Very bizarre usage for the backfield, given the recent trends heavily favoring Warren. In Week 18, Harris out-snapped Warren 49% to 38%. He out-carried him nine to five in the first half.
Harris also got banged up in the fourth quarter, although he returned to the game. I liked Warren a lot in this game, so I was shocked to see him used so little, especially as a receiver (one target). First time in a month that Harris out-snapped Warren.
Warren has at least 25 receiving yards in six of his last nine games.
Harris handled 18 carries for 63 yards in his first matchup versus Baltimore (nine for 42 in the second).
Jaylen Warren contributed 41 yards on nine carries in his first matchup against the Ravens and 48 yards in the second.
Warren also caught all 4 of his targets for 27 yards in the first game and five for 44 in the second game. Going right back to the over on his receiving yards prop this week at 19.5 yards.
In the passing game, Russell Wilson completed 17 of his 31 attempts for 148 yards, tossing one touchdown and no interceptions, which resulted in a passer rating of 78.4.
Wilson has now tossed for at least 228 passing yards in four of his eight games played with George Pickens healthy this season.
In the last two games versus Baltimore, Wilson threw for 205 yards and 217 yards.
Pat Freiermuth was the standout target for Wilson, catching eight passes for 85 yards and scoring a touchdown—12 targets when you include penalties. The Steelers’ tight end was targeted on 39% of his routes run.
I’d expect him to continue to produce in another plus-matchup for TEs in Week 19. However, the Ravens have had his number this season.
Freiermuth added 14 yards on two receptions from 2 targets in the first matchup versus the Ravens. The second game, he recorded three receptions for 16 yards.
It might be wise to take the LESS THAN 45.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks.
Mike Williams caught one pass for 25 yards. Najee Harris added four catches for 20 yards, while Van Jefferson caught three passes for 18 yards.
George Pickens had six targets but caught only one pass for 0 yards, and Calvin Austin, as well as Jaylen Warren, did not record any catches despite being targeted.
Pickens had a terrible game, seeing a boatload of air yards/targets that he could not haul in.
Austin was the most targeted and productive receiver, boasting a Target share of 19%, with 100-plus air yards, accounting for 51% of the team’s total air yards in the second game versus Baltimore.
Pickens led the passing attack with eight receptions on 12 targets for 89 yards in his first (and only) matchup versus the Ravens.
The Ravens’ defense has also improved dramatically in their last seven games, allowing an average of sub-200 passing yards.
Houston Texans
Stock Down Joe Mixon | Stock Up Nico Collins & Diontae Johnson
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | HOU | 4 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 21% | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | WR | HOU | 3 | 2 | 39 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 19% | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| John Metchie | WR | HOU | 4 | 2 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 18% | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 3 | 3 | 29 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 14% | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 5 | 5 | 38 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 12% | 18% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cade Stover | TE | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | RB | HOU | 3 | 2 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1% | 4% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | RB | HOU | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1% | 7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The Texans’ offensive unit had a strong showing, particularly from their running game, which saw Dameon Pierce rush for 176 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, averaging an impressive 9.3 yards per carry. His longest run was a 92-yard sprint for a touchdown, providing a major highlight of the game.
Joe Mixon also contributed with 23 yards on five carries, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. However, Davis Mills and Dare Ogunbowale struggled on the ground, with Mills gaining 11 yards on three attempts and Ogunbowale losing 3 yards on two carries.
Mixon has rushed for under 69.5 yards in five of his last seven games with a full allotment of snaps.
Davis Mills completed 12 of 22 attempts for 128 yards and no touchdowns in the passing game.
C.J. Stroud started and completed all 6 passes for 50 yards and one touchdown, posting a passer rating of 141.0. Stroud’s perfect completion percentage showed his efficiency in a limited role, and it was much needed for the Texans to build some momentum heading into the postseason.
Receiving for the Texans, Robert Woods led the team in receiving yards with 39 yards on two catches, followed by Nico Collins, who caught five passes for 38 yards and one touchdown. He went over 1,000 yards on the year as a result. He is the fifth player in Texans franchise history to record 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons.
Collins is the WR1 and WR2 on this offense. 63% target rate per route run in Week 18 on limited snaps.
Dalton Schultz also had a solid game with three catches for 29 yards.
Schultz has 29-plus receiving yards in five of his last eight games. I like bringing his receiving yards prop down to 29.5 yards and taking the MORE THAN on Prizepicks in Week 19.
Dare Ogunbowale added two catches for 26 yards, while John Metchie recorded two catches for 24 yards. Pierce was not involved in the passing game, while Mixon and Xavier Hutchinson each caught one pass for 5 yards.
Collins, Woods, and Metchie started the game with Stroud. Johnson was targeted on the second drive by Mills twice, catching both his targets for 12 yards (27% target rate). I would expect him to mix in WR rotation Woods/Metchie in the Texans’ game against the Chargers.
Furthermore, John Metchie suffered what looked like a concussion in this game, likely increasing DJ’s role. However, he seems to have cleared. Just monitor his injury report status this week leading up to Saturday’s late afternoon game.
Los Angeles Chargers
Stock Up J.K. Dobbins & Quentin Johnston
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | 14 | 13 | 186 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 8 | 5 | 95 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 26% | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | LAC | 3 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 1 | 18% | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | TE | LAC | 6 | 5 | 42 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 7% | 17% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | WR | LAC | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | RB | LAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | LAC | 3 | 3 | 12 | -6 | 0 | 0 | -2% | 9% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The running game was spearheaded by J.K. Dobbins, who carried the ball 18 times for 63 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry but failing to reach the end zone. Dobbins led with nine carries in the first half. But more importantly, he hit his contract incentive of 900-plus rushing yards to earn an extra $150K.
Justin Herbert was also active on the ground, adding 42 yards on four carries, averaging a stellar 10.5 yards per attempt, with his longest rush being 41 yards.
Hassan Haskins provided solid support, rushing for 33 yards on 12 carries, including a touchdown. He had two carries in the first half.
Derius Davis was the only other running back to get involved, but he lost 1 yard on his lone carry.
Through the air, Justin Herbert put on an impressive display, completing 28 of 36 passes for 346 yards, throwing for two touchdowns and no interceptions, which earned him a passer rating of 125.2. The passing game was led by wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who had a standout performance, recording 13 catches for 186 yards, though he could not find the end zone despite three red-zone targets. He caught all nine targets in the first half for 118 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Johnston hauled in 13 of his 14 targets for 186 yards in Week 18, recording career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and target rate (41.2%).
Johnston was most productive on open targets (3+ yards of separation), catching 10 of his 11 such targets for 121 yards. Johnston finished the regular season with 495 receiving yards and five touchdowns on open targets.
Another key contributor in the passing game was Ladd McConkey, who hauled in 5 receptions for 95 yards.
Tight end Will Dissly also made an impact, catching five passes for 42 yards and scoring a touchdown. Dissly played the majority of TE snaps at 57%.
J.K. Dobbins added a few more yards through the air, catching three passes for 12 yards, while D.J. Chark had one reception for 6 yards and a touchdown. Chark filled in for Joshua Palmer as the WR3.
Davis also had a catch, gaining 5 yards. He also caught a touchdown, but it was called back on a penalty.
Washington Commanders
Stock Up Terry McLaurin & Zach Ertz | Stock Down Brian Robinson
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 12 | 8 | 62 | 116 | 0 | 1 | 38% | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | WAS | 5 | 2 | 51 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 37% | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Bates | TE | WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | WAS | 5 | 5 | 44 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 10% | 17% | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | WAS | 4 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | WAS | 2 | 2 | 20 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | RB | WAS | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 0 | -2% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Washington Commanders’ offense was led by Marcus Mariota, who had an efficient game with 161 yards on 15 completions from 18 attempts. Mariota threw for two touchdowns and posted a perfect passer rating of 141.0. He was also effective on the ground, rushing for 56 yards on five carries, averaging an impressive 11.2 yards per attempt, including a 33-yard touchdown.
Jayden Daniels also contributed to the passing game with 38 yards on six completions from 12 attempts, although he did not find the end zone.
Daniels was pressured on 41.2% of his dropbacks on the day, the 2nd-highest rate he has faced this season (Next Gen Stats).
According to head coach Dan Quinn, Daniels only played 45% of the snaps after being held out in the second half due to ‘leg soreness’. The injury is not considered serious, and he is expected to play against Tampa Bay next week.
The rookie quarterback has exceeded his passing yards projection in three straight games this season (when healthy), and that streak should continue against Tampa Bay. Take the MORE THAN 229.5 passing yards on Prizepicks in Week 18.
In the backfield, Austin Ekeler contributed 12 yards on three carries (4.0 yards per carry), while Brian Robinson was limited to just 10 yards on five attempts (2.0 yards per carry).
Ekeler returned from IR and immediately stepped into a sizeable role. Led the backfield with a 60% snap share to Robinson’s 40%.
Unfortunately, the former Alabama running back didn’t score for the third straight week. And it won’t get easier against a run-stuffing Buccaneers defense in the Wildcard Round.
The Buccaneers defense contacted Saints ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on 14 of 18 designed runs (77.8%), the 6th-highest rate by a defense in a game this season.
Overall, the Buccaneers allowed a season-low -16 rushing yards before contact against designed runs on the day via Next Gen Stats.
Dyami Brown had an 8-yard gain on a single attempt, and Daniels had 27 yards on four carries (6.8 yards per carry).
Receiving-wise, Terry McLaurin had a strong performance with 62 yards on eight catches, including a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter.
McLaurin has a juicy matchup on deck versus the Buccaneers’ pass-funnel defense in the first round of the postseason. Take the MORE THAN on his 61.5 receiving yards in Week 19.
Olamide Zaccheaus added 51 yards on two catches, and Zach Ertz caught five passes for 44 yards, also scoring a touchdown (three red-zone targets).
Ertz fell short of his lofty contract incentives as he needed nine catches for 90 yards and two TDs in Week 18.
Regardless, TB is a great spot for him to continue his hot streak. He has MORE THAN 34.5 receiving yards in his last two games. Eight of the last 10 TEs TB has faced have gone OVER their receiving yards projection.
Austin Ekeler chipped in with 20 yards on two catches, while Brown made three catches for 16 yards. After missing last week, Brown resumed his role as the W3 in the offense. Brown led the Commanders with four targets while Daniels was in at QB1.
Brian Robinson added a reception for 6 yards, and John Bates was targeted once but did not record any receptions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stock Down Rachaad White | Stock Up Bucky Irving & Mike Evans & Jalen McMillan
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | 14 | 9 | 89 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 59% | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | TB | 6 | 5 | 74 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 29% | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Culp | TE | TB | 2 | 2 | 36 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | TE | TB | 2 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | TB | 2 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 5 | 2 | -5 | -23 | 0 | 0 | -9% | 16% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers displayed a solid offensive game with an effective rushing attack and a precise passing game led by Baker Mayfield.
On the ground, running back Bucky Irving was the standout performer, rushing 19 times for 89 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and scoring a touchdown with a long of 25 yards. Irving played 72% of the snaps to Rachaad White’s 27% snap rate.
Baker Mayfield also contributed to the rushing game, adding 68 yards on nine attempts for an impressive 7.6-yard average, though he did not reach the end zone.
According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield had more scramble runs (7) and rushing yards on scrambles (75) than any other game in his career, converting three first downs on the ground.
During the season, Mayfield recorded career highs in scrambles (46) and scramble yards (379), while scrambling for 21 first downs, which tied for the fourth-most among quarterbacks.
Sean Tucker chipped in 16 yards on two carries, and McMillan added 6 yards on a single attempt.
White had zero touches in the season finale (although his lone carry was negated by a penalty in the second quarter).
Mayfield’s passing performance was efficient as he completed 21 of 32 passes for 221 yards, throwing for two touchdowns while taking one interception. His passer rating was 93.4.
Mayfield has gone OVER his passing yards in five of the last seven games.
In the receiving game, Mike Evans led the team with 14 targets, catching 9 of them for 89 yards.
Evans hit the 1,000 receiving yards mark and his reception incentives. He tied Jerry Rice’s record of 11 consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards. Alas, he didn’t hit the over on any of his super-bloated receiving props in Week 18. Boo.
Big Mike has 68-plus in seven straight games.
Jalen McMillan was another key contributor, hauling in 5 receptions for 74 yards and scoring one touchdown with a long reception of 33 yards.
It’s been five straight strong games for Jalen McMillan–19% Target share, 7 TDs, and 63 receiving yards per game with 24 catches for 316 yards and 7 TDS.
Five straight overs with at least 51 receiving yards. More than 50.5 receiving yards on Wildcard Weekend? Yes, please.
Tight end Devin Culp caught two passes for 36 yards, while Payne Durham caught two passes for 16 yards and scored one touchdown in a full-time role (filling in for Cade Otton).
Sterling Shepard had one catch for 11 yards, and Irving added two catches, though he gained just -5 yards.
Green Bay Packers
Stock Down Jordan Love & Jayden Reed & Christian Watson & Josh Jacobs | Stock Up Tucker Kraft & Dontayvion Wicks
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | GB | 6 | 5 | 49 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 26% | 24% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | WR | GB | 5 | 3 | 53 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 24% | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | 2 | 2 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 23% | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 7 | 4 | 36 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 18% | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 1 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 4% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | WR | GB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christopher Brooks | RB | GB | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | GB | 1 | 1 | -2 | -7 | 0 | 0 | -3% | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Packers amassed 136 total rushing yards, with Emanuel Wilson leading the charge. Wilson ran the ball 14 times for 73 yards, averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown, with his longest rush being 21 yards.
Chris Brooks also had a solid outing, carrying the ball 8 times for 59 yards (7.4 yards per carry), though he could not find the end zone. Josh Jacobs contributed 44 yards on six carries, scoring a touchdown on a 12-yard run. Jacobs told reporters he would have a reduced role, and he only played 31% of the snaps in Week 18.
Even so, Jacobs has rushed for fewer than 72.5 rushing yards and under his rushing yards projection in four of his last five games with a full allotment of snaps.
Against a tough Eagles defense on the road, it’s best to fade the Packers offense.
Jayden Reed and Malik Willis each had a smaller role in the rushing game, combining for four total rushing yards.
Through the air, the Packers’ passing game was efficient but lacked counting stats. Willis completed 10 of 13 passes for 136 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 109.8. Jordan Love had seven completions on 12 attempts for 69 yards, but also did not throw a touchdown or interception, with a passer rating of 74.7. He left the game early after suffering a hand injury.
Love has now passed for under 227.5 passing yards in three straight games and five of his last seven games. All but two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly’s defense since their bye week. Love is also 3-7 toward his passing prop without Christian Watson over the last two seasons (1-6) on the road.
The efforts of several key contributors highlighted the receiving game. Malik Heath led the way with 53 yards on three catches, while Dontayvion Wicks added 49 yards on five receptions. Wicks was targeted on 29% of his routes run.
Jayden Reed contributed 48 yards on two catches, with his longest reception being 31 yards.
Tight end Tucker Kraft had a solid performance with four catches for 36 yards (six first-half targets), while Luke Musgrave, Jacobs, and Christian Watson also made small contributions. Wilson, despite a solid rushing performance, had one catch for a negative 2 yards.
Romeo Doubs did not play in this game, and Watson will miss the playoffs after suffering a torn ACL injury. Terrible run-out for the third-year WR who has battled injuries since entering the NFL.
Presuming Doubs returns for the playoffs, he will spearhead 3WR sets with Wicks/Reed. Heath and Melton will round out the WR rotation. Before Love left the game, Wicks/Kraft were his most-targeted WRs.
Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Up Dallas Goedert
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | PHI | 11 | 7 | 94 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 41% | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 6 | 4 | 55 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ainias Smith | WR | PHI | 6 | 4 | 35 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 15% | 15% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Johnny Wilson | WR | PHI | 5 | 3 | 24 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 14% | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 10% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | PHI | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | RB | PHI | 4 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 10% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles displayed a strong offensive performance as they amassed 269 yards through the air and 86 yards on the ground despite resting the majority of their starting offense versus the Giants. The team’s rushing game was led by rookie Will Shipley, who rushed for 32 yards on 10 attempts, averaging 3.2 yards per carry.
Kenneth Gainwell added 14 yards on 11 attempts, while Ainias Smith contributed 4 yards on one attempt. Tanner McKee, the quarterback, had three rushing attempts for 1 yard, averaging 0.3 yards per carry.
Passing the ball, McKee completed 27 of his 41 pass attempts for 269 yards and two touchdowns, maintaining a passer rating of 100.6. The Eagles’ receiving corps was headlined by Jahan Dotson, who caught seven passes on 11 targets for 94 yards, though he failed to score.
No. 1 tight end Dallas Goedert also had a productive day, catching four passes for 55 yards on six targets. It was a strong showing for DG, given he only played 13 snaps (19% snap share). The Eagles TE was targeted on 67% of his routes run.
Seven of the last nine TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards.
Presuming Goedert is now fully back to health, he is in a sneaky production spot.
Rookie WR Ainias Smith added 35 yards on four receptions, including a touchdown. Shipley, Johnny Wilson, Grant Calcaterra, and Gainwell each contributed, with Eli Jenkins also catching a touchdown pass on his sole reception for 7 yards.
The team also showed good balance across its passing and receiving targets. Dotson had a Target share of 28%, while Goedert and Smith contributed 15%, respectively.
The Eagles will be well-rested ahead of their home playoff game against the Green Bay Packers.
Denver Broncos
Stock Up Courtland Sutton & Marvin Mims & Jaleel McLaughlin
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 7 | 5 | 98 | 116 | 0 | 1 | 71% | 24% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | DEN | 4 | 4 | 50 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 29% | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | WR | DEN | 2 | 2 | 26 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 13% | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | 4 | 3 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | TE | DEN | 3 | 3 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Audric Estime | RB | DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | WR | DEN | 2 | 2 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 0 | -4% | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | DEN | 2 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 0 | 0 | -7% | 7% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims | WR | DEN | 5 | 5 | 51 | -18 | 0 | 2 | -11% | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bo Nix led the charge with seven carries for 47 yards, averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. Jaleel McLaughlin started and contributed with 16 carries, totaling 39 yards, at an average of 2.4 yards per carry. Rookie Audric Estime had 12 carries for 34 yards and one touchdown. Javonte Williams added five carries for 28 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt, while Jarrett Stidham rushed 2 times for 7 yards. Michael Burton had a single carry for 3 yards.
McLaughlin saw his snaps increase to 41% despite the blow-out victory. Estime finished third in snaps at 24%. He also saw six of his 12 total carries on the Broncos’ final drive in the fourth quarter.
Through the first three quarters, McLaughlin led with 14 carries, to Estime’s two and Williams’s three.
McLaughlin is the current RB1 for the Broncos.
Williams is still the preferred pass-catching back, so we could see him get worked more with Denver as an underdog on the road in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs.
Therefore, I like the LESS THANs on Estime. Less than 6.5 attempts and 24.5 rushing yards. Before the fourth quarter against the Chiefs, in the favorable game script, he was sitting on two carries for four yards.
Bo Nix was exceptional in the passing game, completing 26 of his 29 attempts for 321 yards and four touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 152.4. Nix’s 18 straight completions to start the game were the most by any rookie to open a game in NFL history (Next Gen Stats). Needless to say, the Chiefs didn’t care too much about stopping the Broncos as they were resting all their key guys.
Courtland Sutton was his top target, catching five passes for 98 yards and one touchdown, including a long reception of 47 yards.
Based on his contract, Sutton got the 82 yards he needed to earn an additional $500k.
The Broncos WR1 has at least 70 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games (70%).
Marvin Mims also had a strong performance, hauling in 5 catches for 51 yards and two touchdowns, with his longest reception being 32 yards. Mims earned four first-half targets and was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes run. There were a lot of schemed looks behind the line of scrimmage for Mims as he totaled -18 air yards.
The routes are finally there for Mims, and he is shining. He also has had five-plus touches in six of his last eight games, averaging nearly 59 yards per game.
Devaughn Vele caught four passes for 50 yards and one touchdown. Javonte Williams made three receptions for 50 yards (three targets in the first half), while Lil’Jordan Humphrey caught two passes for 26 yards.
Nate Adkins added three catches for 25 yards, and Troy Franklin made two catches for 12 yards. Jaleel McLaughlin had two receptions for 9 yards.
Buffalo Bills
Stock Up Keon Coleman & Khalil Shakir
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 10 | 2 | 31 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 81% | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | BUF | 4 | 3 | 25 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 13% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | BUF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | TE | BUF | 4 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | BUF | 8 | 7 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | RB | BUF | 3 | 2 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 1 | -3% | 10% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The Buffalo Bills offense was led by quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who completed 15 of 21 passes for 101 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 97.5. Backup quarterback Mike White also had some playing time, throwing for 28 yards on three completions out of 11 attempts, but did not record a touchdown.
Josh Allen started to continue his streak of starts but immediately was taken out of the game after one snap.
In the rushing game, running back Ray Davis led the way with 64 yards on 15 carries, averaging 4.3 yards per rush, though he did not score. James Cook contributed 28 yards on 10 carries with a touchdown. I was surprised by how much Cook played, but it was for him to get over 1,000 rushing yards on the season. He only needed 19 yards entering Week 18 to his 1K for the second consecutive season.
Ty Johnson had a solid 6.5-yard average on two carries for 13 yards. Trubisky also added 12 yards on four rushes, while Keon Coleman contributed 9 yards on one carry, and Reggie Gilliam added 4 yards on his single rush.
The receiving core was highlighted by wide receiver Curtis Samuel, who caught seven passes for 52 yards, while Coleman caught two passes for 31 yards. There was a big emphasis on getting Coleman involved with 50/50 balls, but the rookie fell short, catching just two of his 10 targets (188 air yards) on a 33% target rate per route run. Part of that is on the backup QB play, as only three of his targets were deemed catchable per the FantasyPoints data suite.
Mack Hollins contributed 25 yards on three receptions (needed two for a 50K bonus), and Quintin Morris had 20 yards on three catches.
Running back Davis caught two passes for just 1 yard but added a touchdown.
Coleman and Hollins played the full game, with Khalil Shakir/Amari Cooper getting the day off.
Khalil Shakir contributed 25 yards on three receptions back in Week 17. Shakir led the way with six targets in the first half and was hyper-targeted on 33% of his routes run.
The Bills slot WR’s production has fallen off the last few games, where Buffalo has played in weird game scripts. Even so, Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in nine of 15 games this season.
I like his receiving prop OVERs at 52.5 receiving yards, given he won’t be catching coverage from Broncos CB1 Patrick Surtain as the team’s No. 1 slot WR.
Ty Johnson added 0 yards on his single catch.
Los Angeles Rams
Stock Down Cooper Kupp & Blake Corum | Stock Up Tyler Higbee and Jordan Whittington
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR | LA | 6 | 3 | 72 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 39% | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | WR | LA | 8 | 5 | 37 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 38% | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | WR | LA | 7 | 4 | 35 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 18% | 18% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Whittington | WR | LA | 4 | 3 | 86 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LA | 7 | 5 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 18% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | LA | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Schrader | RB | LA | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | WR | LA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | RB | LA | 5 | 4 | 34 | -19 | 0 | 0 | -9% | 13% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Los Angeles Rams’ offense was led by backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who completed 27 of 41 passes for 334 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, giving him a passer rating of 97.0. He spread the ball across various receiving options, and the Rams’ passing game was highly productive.
At wide receiver, Jordan Whittington was the standout, with three receptions for 86 yards and a long gain of 50 yards. He also was targeted on 27% of his routes. The Texas rookie wide receiver started and didn’t play a ton. His lack of playing time in a meaningless game is likely a testament to Sean McVay’s feelings about him as a strong future asset.
Demarcus Robinson added three catches for 72 yards, and tight end Tyler Higbee contributed five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown (three red-zone targets). It’s good to see the Rams TE healthy, and he should be in line for the TE1 role in the first round of the playoffs. It’s still a rotation among the LA tight ends, but Higbee is clearly at the top. The Rams TE was targeted on 37% of his routes run.
The Rams also featured Tutu Atwell, who caught five passes for 37 yards (five first-half targets), and Tyler Johnson, who had four catches for 35 yards and a touchdown.
On the ground, the Rams relied on running back Ronnie Rivers, who led the backfield with 12 carries for 48 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He played 79% of the snaps.
Whittington also briefly appeared in the backfield, rushing twice for 12 yards. Backup running backs Blake Corum and Xavier Smith contributed as well, with Corum rushing for 10 yards on two carries and Smith adding six yards on two carries. Garoppolo also had two rushes for five yards.
Corum broke his forearm and will miss the remainder of the postseason for the Rams. Rivers will be Kyren Williams’ backup.
There were not too many takeaways from a game where the Rams deployed all backups. But Whittington showing out again suggests he might be in for a bigger role come 2025 if Cooper Kupp is really cooked.
In his last five games, Kupp has had more than three catches once, with 12 catches for 161 yards and just 1 TD over that span.
This has had a negative impact on Matthew Stafford. He is under 240.5 passing yards in four of his last five games.
Five of the last eight quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +92 passing yards.
The only ones who have failed to hit the passing yards markers? Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff in their rematches against the Vikings. Rams-Vikings is a rematch from Week 8.
Here’s what happened in that game from the Week 9 fantasy football forecast:
Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a great game, completing 25 of 34 passes for 279 yards, throwing four touchdowns and one interception. His 73.5% completion rate, 124.5 passer rating, and 8.2 yards per attempt demonstrated his effectiveness in leading the Rams’ offense.
Per Next Gen Stats, entering Week 8, Stafford was the only qualified quarterback without a touchdown pass over 10 air yards. The last time Stafford threw three touchdown passes over 10 air yards was Week 1, 2021, against the Bears. Stafford was pressured on just 4 of 34 dropbacks, with all four pressures coming when the Vikings rushed four or fewer pass rushers. He was not sacked on the night.
In the backfield, Kyren Williams carried the ball 23 times, accumulating 97 yards at an average of 4.2 yards per carry, with a longest run of 17 yards. Blake Corum contributed with four carries for 9 yards, and Stafford had three carries but lost 4 yards. Williams recorded six red-zone carries with no rushing touchdowns and one target that he converted into a receiving touchdown.
Snap counts: Kyren Williams: 89%, Blake Corum: 11.00%
Wide receiver Puka Nacua led the receiving corps, catching seven of his nine targets for 106 yards, averaging 15.1 yards per reception, with a longest gain of 21 yards and an impressive 55 yards after the catch. Nacua ran a route on just 65% of the dropbacks but didn’t see him hampered by his injury, which has sidelined him since Week 1.
Nacua led the Rams with a 26.47% Target share and amassed 105 air yards, accounting for 40.54% of the air yards. According to Nex Gen Stats, Nacua was able to get open often against the Vikings, recording five of his seven receptions and 88 of his 106 yards on open targets (3+ yards of separation).
Cooper Kupp made an impact with five catches on eight targets, totaling 51 yards and a touchdown, with a long reception of 27 yards. Kupp ran a route on 82.35% of dropbacks. Kupp was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one touchdown. Kupp was targeted 23.53% of the time, contributing 38 air yards (14.67%).
Nacua looked like the clear alpha in the Rams’ passing attack over Kupp. If some managers in your league think otherwise, sell high on Kupp. We know his injury history.
Demarcus Robinson caught two passes on three targets for 35 yards, scoring two touchdowns, including a 25-yard catch. Robinson ran a route on 85% of dropbacks and was targeted once in the red zone and scored.
Kyren Williams contributed in the passing game as well, catching 5 of 7 targets for 19 yards and a touchdown. Other contributors included Tutu Atwell, Hunter Long, and Colby Parkinson, each making key catches to support the offense. Parkinson ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. It was an increase compared to last week, but not many Rams players will have value outside the Big Three.
Minnesota Vikings
Stock Down Everyone
| Name | Pos | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | YAC | TD | Air % | Tar % | RZ ATT | RZ RUSH TD | RZ REC | RZ TGT | RZ REC TD |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 6 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 34% | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 8 | 2 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 27% | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 9 | 3 | 54 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 20% | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | MIN | 4 | 3 | 53 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 18% | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | TE | MIN | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 6 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | RB | MIN | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 0 | 0 | -4% | 5% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Vikings saw some success on the ground, with Cam Akers leading the way, rushing for 65 yards on six carries, averaging a strong 10.8 yards per attempt, including a long rush of 58 yards. Aaron Jones added 45 yards on 10 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but was unable to find the end zone.
Jones led the backfield with a 62% snap share to Akers’ 31%. He also led the backfield with seven carries in the first half.
Sam Darnold contributed with 10 yards on three carries, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt.
Sam Darnold completed just 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards in the passing game. Despite not throwing an interception, he was unable to secure a touchdown pass and posted a passer rating of 55.5. His longest completion of the game went for 31 yards.
In terms of receiving, Justin Jefferson was the most targeted player, catching 3 of his nine targets for 54 yards, though he did not score. Jalen Nailor was productive, hauling in 3 catches for 53 yards on four targets. Aaron Jones contributed with five receptions for 30 yards on six targets, while Josh Oliver had two catches for 16 yards on three targets.
T.J. Hockenson had a quiet game, catching only two passes for 9 yards on eight targets.
He should rebound with a similar volume next week. All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2. I like the MORE THAN on his 43.5 receiving yards in Week 19.
Cam Akers added 4 yards on two catches, and Jordan Addison was targeted 6 times but caught just one pass for no yards.
I think this was an outlier performance from Darnold. This game is hardly reflective of how his play has been all season. It’s the first game Darnold failed to recorded 231+ passing yards in 12 games.
I expect the Vikings to bounce back against the Rams.
Here’s what happened in their first matchup from the Week 9 fantasy football forecast:
Quarterback Sam Darnold delivered a strong performance, completing 18 of 25 passes for 240 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Darnold’s completion rate of 72%, a passer rating of 128.8, and 9.6 yards per attempt underscored his efficiency. He also added 6 rushing yards on three carries.
In the ground game, Aaron Jones was the primary back, carrying the ball 19 times for 58 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with a longest run of 9 yards. Darnold’s six rushing yards complemented Jones’ contribution.
Snap counts: Aaron Jones: 92%, Ty Chandler: 4%
In the receiving corps, star wide receiver Justin Jefferson was Darnold’s go-to target, hauling in eight of nine targets for 115 yards, averaging 14.4 yards per catch with a long of 27 yards. Jefferson had two red zone targets and did not score. The Vikings No.1 WR led with a 39.13% Target share, recording 103 air yards (43.64% of the team’s air yards).
Aaron Jones added value through the air as well, catching both of his targets for 37 yards with an impressive 18.5 yards per reception. Josh Oliver, the tight end, made two catches on two targets for 30 yards, scoring a touchdown with a longest reception of 25 yards. Trent Sherfield contributed with a 10-yard touchdown catch, while Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, and Johnny Mundt each made timely catches to keep the chains moving. Sherfield Sr. saw one red zone target and caught a touchdown.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
