Fantasy Football Forecast: NFL Player Props & Predictions (Super Bowl LIX)

Fantasy Football Forecast: NFL Player Props & Predictions (Super Bowl LIX)

Welcome back, champions! The NFL regular season and playoffs have led us to this moment: Super Bowl LIX, where the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will face off in an epic showdown. Congratulations to all fantasy managers who crushed their seasons-your hard work has paid off!

But the fun doesn’t have to stop just because fantasy football is over. With the Super Bowl ahead, there are still plenty of ways to stay engaged, whether through player props, PrizePicks plays, or analyzing playoff performances for future fantasy insights.

My focus for this Super Bowl matchup is to provide actionable insights into key players, highlighting stock up/stock down performances, snap shares, high-value opportunities, and routes run. Whether you’re preparing for offseason dynasty decisions or just looking for one last shot at prop-betting glory, I’m here to simplify the analysis and help you capitalize on the season’s final game.

As always, my goal is to do the heavy lifting for you by breaking down the critical data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter most. And don’t forget, it’s player prop bet season-expect some players to bring their best on the biggest stage.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Super Bowl Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush one last game day. Let’s roll those winnings into even more success as we close out an incredible NFL season.

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Fantasy Football Forecast: Player Props & Predictions (Super Bowl LIX)

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts completed 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards, throwing one touchdown with no interceptions, and finished with an impressive passer rating of 110.1.

According to Next Gen Stats, Hurts was most effective passing from the pocket in the NFC Championship, completing 18 of 20 such passes for 216 yards and his only passing touchdown.

When he left the pocket, Hurts completed just 2 of 8 passes for 30 yards, including four throwaways. Missing his starting center Cam Jurgens, Hurts faced significantly more free rushers and quick pressures than normal. The Commanders generated five unblocked pressures and eight quick pressures, each of which was the 2nd-most that Hurts has faced in a game this season (including the playoffs).

Hurts has more than 24.5 pass attempts thrice in his last 11 games (27%).

Saquon Barkley powered the ground game with 15 carries for 118 yards (7.9 YPC) and three touchdowns (five red-zone carries), including a 60-yard burst on the Eagles’ opening drive. Rookie Will Shipley was explosive, tallying 77 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, highlighted by a 57-yard run in the fourth quarter.

Jalen Hurts contributed 10 carries for 16 yards and three short rushing touchdowns. He had another 17-yard rushing TD that was wiped away on a holding penalty.

Kenneth Gainwell added 8 yards on three carries, while Dallas Goedert and Kenny Pickett had minor contributions. Goedert had a red-zone carry for four yards.

Gainwell got hurt on a third-quarter kickoff return and was ruled out with a concussion. With two weeks to get ready for the Super Bowl, Gainwell should clear the protocol in time to play.

A.J. Brown led the receiving corps with six catches on eight targets for 96 yards, including a 4-yard red-zone touchdown grab and a 31-yard long. AJB WR1 szn had six targets in the first half.

Dallas Goedert was equally reliable, hauling in seven of nine targets for 85 yards with a long of 26. He was targeted on 31% of his routes run.

He has 47 yards in three straight favorable matchups, and the Chiefs have allowed 8 of their last 10 opposing tight ends to go OVER their projected receiving props number. His yards are definitely the market to attack in the Super Bowl, not the receptions. Take the LESS than 4.5 receptions on Prizepicks for Goedert.

There’s not enough passing volume to go around for him to catch five balls. He is under 4.5 catches in five straight games. Under in all but one game this season alongside a healthy AJB and Smith (against the Commanders in Week 11). Dating back to 2023, Goedert is under 4.5 receptions in 9 of his last 13 games (69%) with his two teammates.

DeVonta Smith caught all 4 of his targets for 45 yards, while Kenneth Gainwell (two receptions) and Saquon Barkley (one catch) chipped in with short gains through the air. Smith did pick up a defensive pass interference call in the end zone that would result in a Hurts rushing TD.

Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone over 5.5 receptions.

Over the past two seasons, Smith has gone under 5.5 catches with his two teammates healthy in 80% of his games (16/20).

But similar to the Goedert prop, the Slim Reaper should be able to get there with yards.

DeVonta Smith has 70+ yards in his last five games with the Eagles as underdogs (79-plus in two games this season). Take the MORE than 49.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks for Smith.

Offensive Snap Counts:

Wide Receivers:

Tight Ends:

Running Backs:

  • Saquon Barkley: 52 snaps (73%)
  • Kenneth Gainwell: 12 snaps (17%)
  • Will Shipley: 7 snaps (10%)

The Eagles won the turnover battle on the day (four takeaways and zero giveaways) against the Washington Commanders and will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes delivered another strong performance, completing 18 of 26 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown. He avoided turnovers and finished with an impressive passer rating of 111.9.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes set season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5) in the Chiefs’ AFC Championship game win over the Bills. His top three games by dropback EPA this season have all come over his last four games. Over that time frame, Mahomes has also had four of his five quickest times to throws recorded in a game this season (2.59 seconds against the Bills).

Patrick Mahomes has tossed for 250-plus passing yards in seven of his last 12 games and in eight of his last 12 home games dating back to last year’s postseason.

All but three QBs (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Matthew Stafford) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly’s defense since their bye week.

Kareem Hunt led the ground game with 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 YPC) and a touchdown (three red-zone carries). Mahomes showed his dual-threat ability, rushing 11 times for 43 yards and two scores. The four of the last five RBs Philly has faced have gone OVER their rushing yards projection.

According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes scrambled to run on 6 of his 34 dropbacks against the Bills in the AFC Championship, his 2nd-highest scramble rate in a game in his career (17.4%).

The only other game where Mahomes scrambled more often was in his first career matchup against the Bills in Week 6, 2020 (18.2%). Mahomes converted a first down on 5 of his six scramble runs, tying a career-high, while also scoring his second touchdown on a designed run in his career. Across nine career matchups, Mahomes has scrambled on 8.8% of his dropbacks against the Bills, compared to 6.1% against all other opponents.

Xavier Worthy contributed 16 yards on two carries, while Isiah Pacheco added 12 yards on five attempts (one red-zone carry on a direct snap from the 3-yard line). Hunt doubled Pacheco’s carries four versus eight in the first half while they split routes run out of the backfield.

But his number for the Super Bowl has been boosted way up to 45.5 rushing yards. He has rushed for 45-plus yards once this season with Pacheco in the lineup (six games).

Isiah Pacheco has LESS THAN 31.5 rushing yards in four straight games (under 22.5 in three straight games).

Xavier Worthy shined as Mahomes’ favorite target, hauling in 6 of 7 targets for 85 yards and an 11-yard touchdown. He caught all five of his targets in the first half for 62 yards. He was heavily involved in the red zone.

According to Next Gen Stats, Worthy went in motion on 38.5% of his snaps, the highest single-game motion rate of his career (minimum 10 snaps), logging two carries for 16 yards while catching both of his targets for 33 yards.

Worthy has four catches or more in nine straight games (5-plus in seven straight), with 40-plus yards in all contests. Take over/more than for Worthy’s five receptions and 56.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks.

JuJu Smith-Schuster started and added two catches for 60 yards, including a 31-yard reception. Forty of his yards came after the catch. Marquise Brown caught three passes for 35 yards, and Travis Kelce contributed 19 yards on two catches.

Hollywood Brown saw two more deep targets as he continues to be used downfield in the Chiefs’ offense. And there is a clear effort to get him the ball. On the Chiefs’ first drive, he caught two passes on the first two Mahomes pass attempts. Out of halftime, he received the first passing attempt again from Mahomes.

Brown getting involved from the get-go was true in the divisional round as well (target on the opening drive). Brown has had a target on the Chiefs opening drive in three of his four games played this season.

Kelce snapped his 14 straight games of 70-plus receiving yards in the postseason against the Bills. Even so, Kelce has still averaged just under one TD per playoff game in his last 12 postseason appearances.

Samaje Perine (17 yards), Isiah Pacheco (12 yards), DeAndre Hopkins (11 yards), and Kareem Hunt (6 yards) each made smaller contributions. Hopkins only ran nine routes behind Smith-Schuster. He had an end zone target but was otherwise not involved.

DeAndre Hopkins has gone UNDER his receiving yards projection in eight of his last nine games played with the Chiefs this season, including the last three games with Marquise Brown in the starting lineup.

Perine has at least 6.5 receiving yards in six of his last seven games played (13/15 toward the over this season). He had zero receiving yards until the last play of the game that iced the win for the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Offensive Snap Counts:

Wide Receivers:

    • Xavier Worthy: 54 snaps (82%)
    • Marquise Brown: 43 snaps (65%)
    • JuJu Smith-Schuster: 38 snaps (58%)
    • DeAndre Hopkins: 12 snaps (18%)
    • Justin Watson: 11 snaps (17%)
    • Nikko Remigio: 3 snaps (5%)

Tight Ends:

Running Backs:

    • Kareem Hunt: 38 snaps (58%)
    • Isiah Pacheco: 19 snaps (29%)
    • Samaje Perine: 10 snaps (15%)
    • Carson Steele: 7 snaps (11%)

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