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Fantasy Football Forecast: Draft Outlook & Advice (AFC South)

Welcome back, champions! The 2024 NFL regular season is officially in the books, which means the fantasy football championships are complete! Congratulations on your championship.

But the work doesn’t stop now. It has only just begun as we begin the early preparations for the 2025 fantasy football season. And that means the fantasy football forecast is BACK.

As such, I will address the outlooks for all 32 NFL teams throughout January and the remainder of the NFL offseason.

I’ll break down last year’s hits and misses division by division, with the goal of pursuing the right process into 2025.

Let’s kick things off with AFC South and the “winner” of this year’s No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

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2025 Fantasy Football Forecast (AFC South)

Tennessee Titans

Week 18 recap:

Will Levis completed 9 of 17 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 108.7. Mason Rudolph came off the bench, completing all but two of his nine pass attempts for 70 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, earning a passer rating of 99.1.

The Titans rotated their two QBs in the regular season finale. They will almost certainly look to upgrade the position this offseason through free agency and the 2025 NFL Draft. Rudolph will be a free agent.

Tony Pollard led the ground game with 22 carries for 62 yards (2.8 YPC), but he couldn’t find the end zone. Tyjae Spears didn’t play because of an injury.

Pollard fell 21 rushing yards shy of 1,100 ($250K bonus) and two TDs away from another $200K. Pollard is under contract until the end of the 2026 season, but he has an out in his contract after 2025. Pollard was one of my RB targets during the 2024 draft season, as I cited his strong finish in the second half of the 2023 season.

FWIW, PFF’s highest-graded RBs from Weeks 10-18: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, James Conner and Bucky Irving. If you filter by just PFF rushing grade, both Seahawks RBs enter the conversation.

Back to Pollard. It’s the classic case of buying the dip on a player two years away from a major injury.

Now, he wasn’t a major hit by any means, as will usually be the case when you play for the worst team in the NFL. Pollard was a backend fantasy RB2, but he definitely fell off toward the second half of the season.

Remember how good he was in the second half of 2023? Well, he was the third-worst-graded running back per PFF in the second half of the 2024 season. He was definitely playing through injuries – notoriously, he would never practice but play on Sunday – as the Titans were forced to feed him due to Tyjae Spears’ inability to stay healthy.

Tennessee never wanted to ride Pollard like a bell cow, but the injuries forced Brian Callahan’s hand.

On the weekly trade shows this season, I felt both Chris Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) and I were on point about selling Pollard around the halfway mark, which definitely was the best way to approach his front-loaded 2024 campaign.

All in all, Pollard was a good pick outside the top 24 RBs, but the injuries to Spears really helped catapult into a lot of volume.

Spears also showed out in his solo start in Week 17, rushing 20 times for 95 yards. He is definitely more than capable of being a starting NFL running back and will be likely overlooked as a handcuff-plus in the Titans’ 2025 backfield. Spears scored more red-zone TDs (5) than Pollard (3) despite fewer than half the touches in the red zone (15 versus 33).

Something to remember for next year if Pollard’s ADP rises inside the top-24 RBs.

Not to mention, the Titans will likely be trotting out a rookie QB, which guarantees nothing from an offensive environment perspective.

Calvin Ridley was the top target in the regular season finale, hauling in 3 of 5 targets for 76 yards, including a long reception of 39 yards. Ridley was 59 receiving yards away from 1,000 receiving yards and he did enough to get over the season-long milestone.

Ridley accounted for 48% of the Titans’ air yards this season, the highest team share of any player in the NFL.

I liked Ridley a decent amount during draft season because of his price. He was cheap as the WR35 in ADP. He beat his ADP in total points and fell just shy in points per game (WR40).

However, it was the first time Ridley finished worse than WR25 in a healthy season.

All in all, it’s a fine pick at cost. However, he was worse than the year prior, which is to be expected with his horrible quarterback play.

That was always the “risk” with Ridley – that the bad QB play would bring him down. And that was true, but it was very much factored into his super cheap 2024 ADP.

Had Levis taken a step forward in Year 2, we could have seen Ridley be a huge success in fantasy football, given his finish as the WR29 in expected points per game and WR17 in total expected fantasy points. Usage was great, but QB play was notsomuch.

However, Ridley did have one thing work in his favor, as DeAndre Hopkins‘ time in Tennessee was very short-lived. Ridley averaged almost twice as many points (11.6 versus 6.5) after Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. He had 11.6 points per game and was WR26 on the year, 14.5 expected points per game (WR19).

Had Hopkins not been traded, Ridley would have definitely been a huge bust. Banking on in-season trades isn’t something that I want to bet on happening, but nobody would have been surprised if Hopkins missed time at age 32 nursing an off-season knee injury.

I think my main takeaway with Ridley is that if you have a clear-cut target leader in a bad offense, they are usually worth the bet if the price is really cheap.

With Callahan back as the head coach, I’d expect Ridley to remain the centerpiece of the passing game at a very cheap price in 2025. Chances are he will run better in TDs as well, given one of his teammates is primed for negative TD regression…

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine contributed four catches on seven targets for 50 yards in Week 18. NWI finished the season with one of his highest yardage totals of the season, but didn’t score. Finding the end zone was the 28-year-old’s calling card in 2024, scoring nine times on just 32 receptions. He will be a free agent in 2025.

Tyler Boyd did not play in Week 18 and was an utter disappointment in his first year with the Titans. He will be a free agent next season.

Tay Martin made the most of his lone catch (and first career reception), scoring a 49-yard touchdown.

Josh Whyle caught 5 of 7 targets for 29 yards. Chig Okonkwo got hurt, which led to an expanded role for Whyle.

Okonkwo finished the season strong in his last three games. He is entering the final deal of his rookie contract.

Nick Vannett (two targets) and Bryce Oliver (three targets) rounded out the passing attack with 26 and 15 receiving yards, respectively.

After the loss in Week 18, the Titans secured the No.1 overall pick in the draft. Head coach Brian Callahan’s job is safe even though he posted the worst record ATS since 1978.

The team was bad all over and couldn’t stop the run toward the end of the year. Texans RB Dameon Pierce was a ghost all season for Houston and ripped off 176 rushing yards in Week 18.

The Titans’ defense ended the season, allowing 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last seven of eight games played.

However, the terrible season did not ensure everyone’s jobs were safe. General manager Ran Carthon got canned shortly after.

A big part of the new GM’s job will be to find the Titans’ future at QB. They are top-10 in available salary cap space.

On January 17, the Titans hired Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi as their new general manager. Borgonzi has spent 16 years in Kansas City serving a number of roles, from director of player personnel to assistant GM, dating back to 2021. I’d be curious to see if he would bring in a veteran QB like Carson WentzJimmy Garoppolo has ties to Titans QB coach Bo Hardegree from time spent with the Raiders.

In his opening press conference, he stated the importance of the quarterback.

“We’re keeping an open mind on this,” Borgonzi said on Wednesday, “but the quarterback is the most important position arguably in sports, so you have to solidify the quarterback position. So, we’re going to turn over every rock. Whether that’s free agency, draft or we have quarterbacks on the roster here. Will, we’re going to give him every opportunity to play and to compete. But we’re going to attack this thing. We’re going to be relentlessly attacking this until we find the answer.

“Well, you have to have the physical arm talent, obviously, to make every throw in the league,” he said. “Accuracy, decision making are big parts of it. The way you process coverages, the game’s changed a little bit, too. So having mobility, not just a pocket passer. And of course, the leadership part is a big part.

He also mentioned the offensive line being an area of need. Chiefs guard Trey Smith is a free agent. The Titans also have impending free agents in the safety position, among other needs.

Note that KC doesn’t have a third-round pick after they traded for cornerback L’Jarius Sneed last season. They will have an extra fifth round pick after the DeAndre Hopkins trade.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 18 recap:

Mac Jones completed 20 of 32 passes for 225 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception in Week 18. Jones will be a free agent in 2025.

Tank Bigsby carried the ball 14 times for 39 yards (2.8 YPC) and scored the team’s lone rushing touchdown. Travis Etienne added 31 yards on 13 carries. Etienne started and played the majority of snaps (43%) to Bigsby’s 36% snap rate. Etienne contributed three catches on five targets for 29 yards out of the backfield.

D’Ernest Johnson broke off a 26-yard run on just two carries, while Jones scrambled five times for 17 yards.

Brian Thomas Jr. led the aerial attack with seven receptions on 11 targets for 103 yards, including a long gain of 41. According to Next Gen Stats, Thomas pushed his total of games with 75-plus receiving yards to 11, the most such games by a rookie in the Super Bowl era.

It was an absolutely historic season for the former LSU product, who did the majority of his damage with a backup QB.

In the last seven games, BTJ averaged over 18 half-PPR points per game, 19.5 expected fantasy points per game, a 31% target share, a 48% air yards share, and 96-plus receiving yards per game. BTJ WR1 szn.

Thomas was one of my top targets in fantasy football this season, and I couldn’t have been happier about the result. Besides the talent, I always felt that Thomas’ landing spot was being undersold in Jacksonville, as there was a boatload of vacated air yards and targets after Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley left the team. And I felt confident that Gabe Davis wouldn’t command those targets (he never does).

From the 2024 draft season:

“Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones combined for 200 targets last season. Considering Gabe Davis has never commanded 100 targets in a single season, rookie Brian Thomas is looking at close to at least 100-plus targets in the Jaguars offense. That’s a very encouraging benchmark for a rookie WR – given every rookie in the last few years to hit that threshold has drastically exceeded expectations and finished at least top-4 in receiving yards among rookie WRs. I fully expected BTJ to take over the Calvin Ridley role, who was miscast as a field stretcher last season. That role was salivating for fantasy purposes: 1800-plus air yards, 23% target share, 36% air yards share, NFL leader in end zone targets, and WR10 expected points per game.”

However, I wasn’t right about all my Jaguars preseason predictions. I thought Trevor Lawrence could lead the NFL in passing yards. Before his injury, T-Law was ninth in passing yards.

Even if he had played the full season, I don’t think Lawrence was going to finish inside the top 5.

It’s possible that Lawrence would have benefitted greatly from having BTJ down the stretch, so that’s something that I don’t want to completely forget about as we rank QBs in 2025. Lawrence will likely be in the late-round QB consideration, but that might look odd, given Thomas seems like a lock for Round 1.

Regardless, the Jaguars were much more run-heavy under Doug Pederson than I thought they would be.

And that leads me to the biggest whiff when it comes to the Jaguars.

Tank Bigsby. Woof.

I faded him into oblivion as a rookie to great success. And we got preseason hype for the second straight year. I thought it was nonsense. And I couldn’t have been more wrong.

Bigsby carved out a legitimate role in the Jaguars offense and flashed big-time rushing at the start of the season. The second-year rusher averaged the eighth-highest rushing yards above expectation per attempt (+0.7). He also smashed in the two games that Etienne missed, rushing for 118 and 78 yards on 26 and 18 carries, respectively.

But it fizzled out as the season progressed.

Once Lawrence went down, Bigsby was a non-factor. He topped out at 55 rushing yards in the entire second half of the season.

The backfield turned into a full-blown 50/50 committee where neither Etienne nor Bigsby could have been useful for fantasy.

So, where did I go wrong? Well, victory lapping the Etienne/Bigsby discrepancy into 2024 was not wise. Every year, things are going to change. And you either have to evolve and grow or fail to evolve and fall into traps.

Process-wise, I was wrong about Etienne and Bigsby for two reasons. No. 1. Etienne had a TON of touches in 2023. Third among all RBs at 325. No.2. Second-year RBs tend to be the biggest risers in dynasty. I should have been more wary of Bigsby closing the gap on Etienne in his second season.

And that’s exactly what happened. Bigsby even tried to tell me.

No.3. I didn’t weigh Etienne’s second-half fall-off enough in 2023. After Week 9, the Jags RB was RB16, averaging 11.4 points per game. Snap rate fell to 67%, as did his route participation (47%).

Etienne had shown wear and tear after all the touches to start the year in 2023, and then did their best to lighten his load in 2024.

Obviously, losing Lawrence hurt the entire offense in the second half, but anybody who drafted Etienne was already dead on arrival by Week 9. He was a flat-out bust in 2024 after being a star in 2023.

Lawrence will be back and healthy for 2024, and the Jaguars have hired former Buccaneers OC Liam Coen as their head coach behind the hope he can bring this offense back to expectations. Coen initially seemed poised to return to the Buccaneers’ on a pay increase, but he quickly pivoted back to Jacksonville after they fired general manager Trent Baalke.

In Coen’s first year as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator, Mayfield finished third in the NFL in passing yards (4,500).

There will be no allegiance to either Etienne or Bigsby as the team’s starting RB and the new coaching staff could easily deploy a committee in a similar fashion to last season. I dove dip into advanced rushing metrics to see if there really was a better “fit” between Etienne and Bigbsy in the Buccaneers’ new-look offense.

But my findings were inconclusive. I couldn’t find substantial evidence to put one clearer ahead of the other. It is also hard to credit Irving’s success last year based on the scheme when he hit the hole fast and broke tackles at an extremely high rate.

Therefore, I like Coen for both of them in 2025. His rushing attacks have been prolific at each stop coming from the Sean McVay-style run game. This guy got Rachaad White over 4 yards per carry. Wizardry.

I also think many will look back on the Jaguars backfield in 2024 and blatantly state that Bigsby was better.

I won’t argue against that, as he scored more rushing TDs and had a ton of big runs to start the season. But on a down-to-down basis, Etienne was more consistent.

Etienne had a higher rushing success rate than Bigsby in 2024. Etienne also battled through several different injuries.

The Jaguars RB conversation is probably less about how much Bigsby was better than Etienne, but rather that they were both very serviceable rushing the ball in 2024.

With the Coen hire in Jacksonville, I could very much see a two-man deployment of the RBs. I’m just not sold that we will see as large a gap between Bigsby and Etienne compared to Rachaad White/Bucky Irving.

Etienne will play on the fifth-year club option for Jacksonville in 2025, so there’s a logical incentive for the new staff to run him into the ground if they so choose.

Bigsby versus Etienne will be a highly discussed topic this offseason. Buckle up. An elite fantasy RB is going to come out of the woodwork in DUVAL County.

No. 2 tight end Brenton Strange was efficient in Week 18, catching all 4 of his targets for 60 yards. Strange stepped up in the absence of veteran Evan Engram, who will be entering the last year of his contract in 2025. Strange likely won’t see much action as long as Engram is healthy, but he has struggled to stay active during his NFL career.

Engram played in nine games in 2024 but finished TE16 in points per game. He went over his receiving yards prop one time all season (Week 8 versus the Bears). The Jaguars tight end was much more of a PPR-merchant, logging over five receptions per game.

It’s possible that Engram could take on a Chris Godwin-type role in the slot for the Jags in 2025, suggesting more high-target volume in his future.

Parker Washington added 15 yards on two catches, including a 9-yard touchdown on four targets.

Like Strange, Washington showed promise, filling in for an injured Christian Kirk. Kirk is in the final year of his deal and can be released for nearly $10.5 million toward the salary cap. I think the Jags will move on from the veteran and keep Washington as their primary slot WR in 2025 and beyond.

I wrote this about Kirk in my pre-draft analysis and why he was far from a must-have in my WR portfolio in 2024.

“He’s the No. 1 receiver on his team by ADP, his YAC was bad in 2023 (along with the red-zone usage), and he doesn’t run a ton of routes as a slot WR. He checks the boxes of an ultimate floor play unless the red-zone usage flips in his favor. I don’t view him as an alpha and think there’s an outside chance Brian Thomas Jr. fills the alpha role in the offense at the expense of Kirk.”

Josh Reynolds, Luke Farrell, Tank Bigsby, and D’Ernest Johnson each made smaller contributions in the passing game.

Gabe Davis will be back for the Jaguars in 2025, although he is returning from a season-ending torn meniscus injury.

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Indianapolis Colts

Week 18 recap:

Joe Flacco completed 23 of 40 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions in the Colts’ regular-season finale.

Quarterback Anthony Richardson missed his second consecutive game to close out the season, tying a bow on a disappointing sophomore campaign. He played in just 11 games out of 17, missing time due to injuries and other issues. After not playing much at the college level, A-Rich has missed more than half his games two years into the NFL (15/34).

But even when he has played, it’s been a roller coaster. The Colts QB completion percentage has been abysmal, but he has definitely flashed when using his legs. He was a QB1 in 36% of his starts but outside the top 18 at the position in all his other games. Long story short, if he didn’t score a rushing TD, he was a bust.

Richardson has 10 career rushing TDs, 11 passing TDs ,and 13 interceptions on his NFL resume.

According to Next Gen Stats, Richardson’s 61.6 passer rating is the 3rd-worst by a quarterback with at least 250 pass attempts since 2010, ahead of only Jimmy Clausen in 2010 and DeShone Kizer in 2017.

Year 3 will potentially represent a make-or-break year as Richardson’s last chance to show he can be the Colts franchise QB. Colts GM Chris Ballard has preached patience with his inexperienced quarterback, but he has acknowledged that the injuries have taken a serious shot at his development because he is still a super young (22 years old) and inexperienced quarterback who needs repetition.

Even so, they are going to bring in more QB competition while they continue to prep Richardson. Joe Flacco is a free agent. Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen’s jobs are safe, but they know they can’t just hope Richardson knocks the injury bug. They need to win games, or else their jobs will be on the chopping block.

I liked Richardson in 2024 fantasy football drafts (incorrectly) and drafted him plenty. Luckily, I also drafted a lot of Jayden Daniels as well to save my fantasy quarterback position.

Where did I go wrong?

Well, I rubbed off the injury stuff. Maybe the process behind this was bad, but it was just one season where he got hurt. I’m not entirely convinced you should just fully fade injured players one year into the next (even considering their play style), but there wasn’t an injury discount with the Colts QB. You really want the discount with an injury.

I definitely feel like the critical error was just overblowing a small four-game sample size and spinning it into a positive.

Richardson did fall a bit after a lackluster preseason (maybe another red flag), but he was still a bust whichever way you slice it. I think my lesson here with a QB like Richardson is to make the price match the player’s outlook. Richardson’s profile was that of a late-round QB. He gets points with his legs but is very shaky as a passer. A perfectly acceptable late-round QB. But not one that you can hitch your wagon to in the single-digit rounds.

Especially in non-best ball formats. You can stomach the bad games in best ball with other QBs. But starting Richardson one week, and he fails to score a rushing TD, will have you going immediately to find alternatives.

If Richardson falls into the late-round QB conversation, he will definitely be a target of mine in 2025. I’ve just seen too much promise from Shane Steichen’s offense littered with weapons to completely jump ship.

There will be competition for Richardson in Year 3. Some notable QB names that have ties to Steichen: Geno Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew. However, they are all under contract with their respective teams in 2025.

Jonathan Taylor dominated the ground game with 34 carries for 177 yards (5.2 YPC) and scored the Colts’ lone rushing touchdown in Week 18. His longest run went for 17 yards. Taylor also caught one pass for 3 yards.

Taylor’s missed time with early-season injuries and inconsistent quarterback play put fantasy football managers behind the eight ball in 2024, especially with JT going in the same draft range as Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.

But he was still the RB5 in points per game, and he ended the year on an extremely high note, scoring the fourth-most points among all non-QBs despite a bye week in Week 14.

When healthy, Taylor is clearly still a top 5 fantasy RB and the engine to the Colts offense. He ended the season with 29-plus carries and 125-plus rushing yards in three straight games. He might end up being a value in 2025 drafts at 26 years old.

Josh Downs was Flacco’s primary target, hauling in 10 of 13 passes (30% target share) for 94 yards in Week 18.

Downs was such a fun player in 2024 because he seemed to always rise to the occasion, whether it was Richardson or Flacco under center. But when it was the more capable passer in Flacco, Downs’ production skyrocketed.

When Flacco was the QB (eight starts), he went over his receiving yards prop in 88% of his games. 60-plus receiving yards in seven of the eight games.

Technically, the Houston game was a Richardson start – the infamous tap-out game, another red flag – but Downs balled out in that game with his first and only 100-yard receiving game of the season.

All in all, in the seven true games Flacco started, Downs earned a 26% target share, 9.3 targets per game, and 66.4 receiving yards per game. And the fact that Downs missed the first three weeks of the season with an ankle sprain and was still uber-productive is a testament to his talent.

Downs’ production – like every other Colts WR – dipped in Richardson starts, which will unfortunately be the scary floor to prepare for in 2025. Downs wasn’t even the No. 1 target earner with Richardson under center (Michael Pittman Jr. led with a 23% target share).

Even so, I didn’t draft nearly enough of Downs. I was definitely spooked by the preseason high ankle sprain injury that forced him to miss the first three weeks of the season especially after injuries in the second half derailed his rookie year.

But I should have paid attention to his abilities more when healthy as a rookie (35th in targets as a rookie with 97, first-half-year efficiency, etc.), not even as a reason to draft him but to avoid one of the biggest busts (and misses for me) in 2024 fantasy football.

In Week 18, Michael Pittman Jr. caught 6 of 10 targets for 72 yards, with a 26-yard long. 10 targets tied for a season-high (he also had 10 in Week 17, both Flacco starts).

Where to begin with MPJ. First off, the process of targeting him at his expensive cost was bad. I’m not even upset about the result as much as I am irritated by my rationale for being “in” on Pittman in 2024.

Basically, Pittman was penalized in 2023 drafts for the same reason he actually failed in 2024. He had major question marks at quarterback but was saved when Richardson got hurt as a rookie. Gardner Minshew wasn’t great in 2023, but he created passing volume in an offense that didn’t have its starting RB for the majority of the season.

And Pittman almost had another hot run out for a second straight year with Richardson and Downs missing games. After the Downs injury in the preseason, I felt even better about drafting Pittman Jr.

However, I completely overlooked the concerns surrounding Richardson’s passing in 2024 despite being very concerned about them in 2023. Pittman wasn’t cheap enough or worthy of reaching on with his unproven quarterback. I also overlooked the impact on the offense with Taylor returning.

I think the lesson here is not just to assume you were completely off base with a fade on a certain player if your arguments for the specific fade became irrelevant because of other factors like injuries. I was blinded too much by Pittman’s body of work within the context of those past Colts’ offenses compared to his 2024 projection that was objectively much shakier.

As for what to expect from Pittman in 2025, there won’t be any need to pay up for him.

He finished as the WR43 overall and WR52 in points per game. However, he was still the target leader with Richardson under center (23% target share).

And he was playing hurt for the majority of the season. There was a point halfway through the season when it was reported that he would be placed on IR, but he ended up missing just one game. Pittman was playing through a fractured back injury, although it will not require offseason surgery.

Pittman wasn’t as productive as Downs was with Flacco, but he was at least playable and finished the season on a high note with two 100-yard receiving games. But as he has failed to do throughout his NFL career thus far, was to score TDs. Just three TDs on 12 red-zone targets. He caught zero TDs from Richardson.

Even so, he’s an above-average NFL wide receiver, but a highly competitive Colts WR room and question marks at QB demand his ADP to fall substantially to be worth drafting next season.

Alec Pierce made the most of his opportunities in Week 18, catching both of his targets for 57 yards and a 40-yard touchdown.

Adonai Mitchell had one target on five routes.

Pierce was one of the lone bright spots for the Colts in 2024, seemingly coming out of nowhere in his third season. The former second-round pick from the 2022 NFL Draft fended off Mitchell to keep his starting role on the offense, and he delivered the big splash plays Indianapolis was hoping for when they drafted him so highly.

Nobody was happier than Colts general manager Chris Ballard to see Pierce excel in Year 3, and I would expect him to remain firmly in their plans entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2025.

Pierce was left for dead during the draft season after the Colts drafted another WR in the second round of the 2024 NFL draft.

But Pierce put in a career-year, despite catching fewer passes (37) than in his rookie campaign (41). The yardage was 824 in 16 games to go with seven receiving TDs.

Piece constantly made play after play as a downfield weapon, taking advantage of both Colts QBs’ big arms. He led the NFL in average depth of target (22.2) and finished 12th in overall air yards (1,485).

His target share (13%) paled in comparison to Downs/Pittman, but the big plays were how he separated himself from the pack. Hate to label him as a “better in best ball” player, but that seems accurate based on a lack of consistent targets. He averaged just 4.2 targets per game.

That’s the major concern for Pierce in 2025: whether he will be reliable enough to trust in the lineup without an injury elsewhere on the Colts’ depth chart.

Because I fully expect we will see Mitchell take a step forward in Year 2. His target rate per route run was virtually off the charts in Year 1 at 28%. That would have ranked inside the top-20 WRs had he qualified with more routes.

This Colts offense has all the ingredients to be a fantasy-friendly environment in 2025, but it’s going to come down to the QB situation to whether it can deliver.

Jameis Winston with the Colts would be fun.

Andrew Ogletree added 21 yards on his lone reception, while Kylen Granson, Tyler Goodson, and Trey Sermon each contributed modest yardage.

Ballard didn’t sugarcoat the need for a massive upgrade at tight end in 2025 in his post-season presser. They are going to add a receiving threat. Meanwhile, Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson are impending free agents. Jelani Woods can’t ever stay healthy.

I fully anticipate them adding another TE of consequence either in the NFL Draft or free agency.


Houston Texans

Divisional Round recap:

The Houston Texans had a solid rushing game led by running back Joe Mixon, who carried the ball 18 times for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in the divisional round. C.J. Stroud also contributed on the ground, rushing for 42 yards on six attempts. Stroud used his legs more in the postseason, which tends to be the case with a lot of quarterbacks.

Dameon Pierce added 10 yards on four carries, while Dare Ogunbowale had a brief but efficient 9-yard rush on a single attempt.

Mixon ended the season on a high note with back-to-back postseason games with 88-plus rushing yards.

Through the air, Stroud went 19 of 28, passing for 245 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The receiving corps was led by Nico Collins, who caught five passes for 81 yards on eight targets. Tight end Dalton Schultz was another key contributor with 63 yards going a perfect 4-for-4 on his targets.

However, Schultz was a massive disappointment for the entire 2024 season.

He was an avoid for me in 2024 drafts, as he was going in the exact range (late TE1) where the most tight-end busts come from.

And despite a strong run out with all three top Texans WRs getting hurt, he couldn’t deliver. He was a complete afterthought in the red zone, resulting in a TE22 finish (TE29 in points per game). He had one red-zone TD during the entire regular season.

Schultz is the classic situational-based tight end that can only thrive if the offense is cooking. He doesn’t add value after the catch, and he doesn’t command targets at a high level.

Avoid drafting tight ends with this profile, especially when they get boosted up into the backend TE1 range.

Schultz’s poor 2024 outing makes me more bullish on rookie Cade Stover as a buy in dynasty. He might be one year away from fully taking over the TE1 role (Schultz has an out in his contract after the 2025 season).

Xavier Hutchinson added 52 yards on four receptions (six targets), while John Metchie caught two passes for 35 yards (two targets).

Metchie finished the season with at least two receptions in eight of his last nine games.

The Texans’ last game was also Hutchinson’s best game of the season and of his two-year NFL career. It was the first time Hutchinson had more than four catches, more than five targets, and 50-plus receiving yards in a game.

Mixon had a couple of short receptions on three targets, and Irv Smith caught one pass for 2 yards.

Ogunbowale, Jared Wayne, and Pierce were also targeted but did not record significant yardage.

After the team released Diontae Johnson due to a post-game locker room incident, they were forced to play (and start) Wayne in his first NFL game. It is not ideal to make your professional debut on the road in the playoffs against the reigning Super Bowl champions…

The 2024 Texans offense was underwhelming, to say the least. The trio of Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell never got to fully flourish, with all three suffering injuries. Diggs and Dell both suffered season-long injuries.

It’s particularly tough for Diggs, who was playing in a contract year at age 31. He played eight games before tearing his ACL.

Dell never seemed to be right, dating back to his 2023 season-ending injury. And he faces another long road of recovery after suffering a brutal knee injury in Week 16.

And amid all the injuries, nobody else stepped up in the offense besides Collins.

This Texans offense might look very different in 2025 behind Collins on the depth chart because last year’s group was not getting it done, although they might need to do more through the NFL Draft than NFL Free Agency, given their bottom-10 status in available salary cap space.

And that brings me to one of my biggest misses this past season. Fading Collins. And this was something I came to grips with very quickly.

Because it was one of these arguments that I don’t like dying on. Fading a player because he was too good.

Now, that’s not to say fading players who perform above expectations the following year never works. Case in point, the only WR who scored more points above expectation in 2023 than Collins was Deebo Samuel, who was a mega bust in 2024.

Guys don’t post nearly 1,500 receiving yards by accident. And that’s the mistake I made with Collins.

The other issue was the target competition. Diggs and Dell entered the fold, and that figured to eat into Collins’ target share.

Law of the conservation of targets, right? Well, no.

In the four games the trio played together, Collins had 78-plus receiving yards. Nearly 10 targets per game in the three games he played in full.

In my projection of Collins in 2024, I even admitted to the fact that the other WRs would help him maintain efficient play in the face of fewer targets.

If Player X looks and smells like an alpha, they probably are one.

I was so concerned about the floor bottoming out with Collins that I was blind to the extremely high ceiling that he showed in 2023.

And the fact that I opted for “safer” guys such as Jaylen Waddle and Brandon Aiyuk in a similar draft range was the absolute kick in the nuts.

Collins averaged 2.86 yards per route run in 2024, second among all WRs. He picked up right where he left off in 2023, finishing the season as the WR6 in points per game (14.9).

Nico is here to stay atop the WR rankings. I should have gone for the home run.

As for Diggs and Dell, there’s a lot to unpack here. Grab a chair.

I talked about all the Texans’ WRs in my WRs to avoid articles last season, but they were a hot-button topic.

I started very low on Stefon Diggs, labeling him as the player that was No. 1 on my 10 Players We Are NEVER Drafting Again (2024 Fantasy Football).”

He had a major second-half fall-off in 2023, but it was coaching-related.

Before Digg’s injury in Week 8, he was WR10 overall and WR18 in points per game. Most of his efficiency stats were back to baseline as he took over the slot role in the Texans’ offense.

And even when Collins was healthy, Diggs was still producing. In the first five games, over 13 points per game

Although it was clear that he was no longer the alpha in the passing game, and even in the three games he played as the No. 1, it was more solid production rather than fantasy WR1 status.

It remains to be seen how things would have finished if Diggs hadn’t gotten hurt (or the other Texans WRs), but I’m glad I came around on him. He was solid for the first half of the season and more than met his WR23 ADP when healthy.

I think there are a few lessons to learn with Diggs.

No. 1: Targeting discounted WR2s has been a tried-and-true approach that has and continues to pay dividends year after year.

No. 2: Route-running savants like Diggs, who don’t rely on pure speed or contested catch-ability to win, tend to age well.

No.3: Context matters. Diggs’ second-half downfall seemed much more related to a coaching systematic change rather than a skill problem. Diggs’ tenure in Buffalo timed out, and it started during the second half of the 2023 season.

No. 4: Just because a veteran WR is no longer the alpha doesn’t mean he can’t be serviceable elsewhere in a lesser “beta” role.

Now, onto Tank Dell.

I think this one is pretty simple. We – as in the royal we – just completely overlooked Dell’s season-ending 2023 injury. Because I’m not sure the rookie breakout sensation that we were drafting played a single down in 2024. At least not until the end of the year.

I noted that last season, saying, ” I think the injury is the bigger concern at play for Dell and would be the reason he fails to produce in 2024. We saw Tony Pollard struggle with a broken leg and not feel himself till halfway through the year. Given that could be attributed to a slow start (along with the target competition from Diggs/Collins), Dell might be much more of a second-half play that you trade for and not draft as a top-30 WR. However, given his active status in the preseason and off-season activities, I am optimistic the injury won’t hold him back.”

Injury optimism tends to get you in big trouble with higher-priced players.

We have to remember that a lot of these guys coming off serious injuries don’t return to form until the year after they come back to playing.

Dell’s detractors in the NFL draft always cited his size as a reason why he might not succeed at the next level. I don’t necessarily agree with that, as his injuries haven’t necessarily been the reason he has gotten hurt. But back-to-back season-ending injuries for a player who is already undersized aren’t great.

I’m not sure if I can touch Dell in 2025 fantasy football drafts.

But I wasn’t all wrong about Houston’s offense.

I faded Stroud to success. I argued last season that he was avoidable based on his price as the most expensive QB to add little value as a rusher. He was the QB5 in ADP after finishing his rookie season with under 19 points per game. Again, we need that 20-point threshold to get a difference-making QB in fantasy.

He was a top 12 finisher in fewer than half of his games (43%) in 2023. Stroud was QB9 in points per game last season and 15th in expected points per game.

Stroud’s backers last season highlighted the fact that Bobby Slowik was returning as the OC, but there wasn’t enough discussion about Houston losing senior offensive assistant Shane Day to the Chargers in 2024.

I wrote this last season on the Texans offense:

“Now, I will preface this by reiterating that I still want exposure to the Texans’ offense. The fact that they should be much healthier, they added WR Stefon Diggs and kept their OC Bobby Slowik suggesting this offense shouldn’t take any step back. But they might not take a huge step forward.”

All in all, Stroud was a sound process fade in 2024 solely based on fading fantasy football’s most expensive pocket passer.

It’s been two years in a row where the reigning QB in passing yards per game and TD-to-interception ratio has been a bust the following season. Burrow led the NFL in passing yards per game, and Jackson posted the highest TD-INT ratio (41-4).

Something else to pay attention to is a jump in competition. No team has a harder 2024 schedule compared to the 2023 season than the Houston Texans.

But I’ll be the first to admit that Stroud finished with his lowest range of outcomes. All his WRs got hurt. Stroud played in four games all season with the top trio of WRs.

In those games, he averaged 15.9 points per game. In only games with Collins playing (14), he averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game.

Even if his WRs had stayed healthy, Stroud likely would have been underwhelming.

The offensive line was a huge issue, despite the fact they were hit worse by the injury bug back in 2023.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Texans shuffled around their offensive line frequently this season, using 11 different offensive line combinations for at least 10 snaps this season (T-10th-most). Despite the high number of unique combinations, they only had eight different linemen play at least 50 snaps for them, tied for the 5th-fewest. In part due to the shuffling, the Texans offensive line allowed an unblocked pressure rate of 8.3%, the 7th-highest rate in the league.

My main argument against Stroud’s price was that if you wanted an elite pocket passer, just wait to draft Joe Burrow several rounds later.

That worked out massively.

With Stroud’s sophomore slump over, I think 2025 will be a prime time to buy the dip. The cost won’t be nearly as high, and his upside as a prolific passer is still intact.

I also was very much into drafting Mixon at his ADP in 20234 drafts.

Mixon was the reason I didn’t find myself drafting Derrick Henry in Round 2 of drafts last season (it helps me justify the bad take).

I thought it was a great landing spot for a three-down RB in a high-powered offense.

And he was so cheap and available in Rounds 4-5.

He will turn 29 in July. Mixon signed a three-year, $27-million contract extension that includes $13 million guaranteed after being traded for next to nothing last offseason.

However, I am hesitant to be as bullish on Mixon again, given I like him because of his situation, workload, etc. His price will increase compared to last season.

We’re going to see changes in the Texans’ offense in 2025, which could negatively influence Mixon’s fantasy output.

Dameon Pierce may get more offseason hype entering the final year of his rookie contract. But I’ll wait to see this first because the current coaching staff loves Mixon. And Pierce has never seemed to be favored under this current regime.

More likely he gets traded than featured in the 2025 Texans offense.

I try to be very price-sensitive to RBs landing in new spots, which is why Mixon was my favorite among the veteran RBs on new teams last season.

My simple evaluation of Mixon was, “The dude scores fantasy points because he scores TDs and catches passes.”

He missed several games to start the season but still finished as the RB13 overall and RB5 in points per game (16.9).

We’ll see where the market settles on Mixon, but I didn’t see any signs of running back hitting the cliff, especially after a strong postseason. He was also able to overcome hellish run-blocking, as Texans running backs were stuffed for no gain or a loss on 23.2% of their carries in 2024, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).

If Houston is unable to make any splash additions at the skill positions, this team is going to lean into a concentrated workload between Collins and Mixon in 2025.

It is very possible that we will see another FA WR, such as Keenan Allen, sign with the Texans this offseason. Allen was rumored to be a trade target for the Texans before they landed Diggs from Buffalo.

After the season ended, it seemed like Bobby Slowik would return as the offensive coordinator, but his seat was going to be extremely hot.

Well, the chair burned QUICK because less than a week after the Texans were eliminated from the playoffs, Slowik was let go. Seems like the Texans were just getting ahead of a potential sinking ship. Earlier in the week, they fired the offensive line coach after a disastrous season.

There are just zero excuses for a team led by Stroud to post a regular-season success rate in the same stratosphere as the Browns…

Texans QB coach Jerrod Johnson is viewed as the favorite internal hire to become the team’s new offensive coordinator. He has been with the Texans since 2023 and has ties to DeMeco Ryans, Kevin O’Connell, and Frank Reich after starting his coaching career in 2017 with the 49ers.

The Texans eventually hired Nick Caley as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He spent time with the Rams over the last two seasons. He was LA’s pass game coordinator in 2024.

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