15 Fantasy Football Expert Hits & Misses

15 Fantasy Football Expert Hits & Misses

With the 2024 season behind us, there will be plenty of time for retrospectives ahead of us. Eight months of looking forward while referencing the things that shaped fantasy football in 2024 are underway, and there’s no better place to start than looking at FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) hits and misses.

We collate the rankings of hundreds of industry experts to form the ECR, but now is the time to look at what they got right and also what they got wrong.

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Fantasy Football Hits & Misses

Fantasy Football Misses

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)

According to ECR, Marvin Harrison Jr. was the 13th-ranked player across all positions. This lined up very similarly to his average draft position (ADP) across all platforms, where he went at the top of the second round. There are no two ways about it, though, this was a horrendous pick.

While rookie receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. thrived at later picks, Harrison ended up as the WR43 in points per game (PPG). Harrison had his moments and scoring seven touchdowns is certainly something to build upon, but he rarely looked like the ‘can’t-miss’ prospect many hoped he would be, failing to draw volume at a rate required of top draft picks, ranking 53rd among receivers in receptions per game (3.6).

Perhaps Harrison and Kyler Murray can find the same page in 2025, but it’s fair to say we’ll be drafting Harrison much cheaper this year.

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) & Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

Much of Miami’s disappointing 2024 season could be put down to Tua Tagovailoa playing only 11 games, but even in those 11 games it still didn’t matter for both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins shifted away from their elite wide receiver duo to focus the offense on De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith instead, and it’s hard to argue against the fact it worked with Miami almost making the playoffs despite losing their QB1 for a large chunk of the season.

In games with Tagovailoa, Hill averaged 7.8 targets and 63 yards per game — a vast drop from the 10.7 and 112 per game he averaged in 2023. Waddle saw his production drop from 7.4 targets and 72 yards per game in 2023 to 5.3 and 58.1, respectively, per game in 2024. Hill finished as the WR30 and Waddle finished as the WR55, significant failures compared to their fantasy ADPs as the third and 26th players.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

Sticking with the wide receiver position, Michael Pittman Jr. always looked like a fragile bet for 2025 despite coming off a WR14 finish in 2023. Pittman had succeeded with Gardner Minshew while Anthony Richardson was out with an injury and earned himself a place in the top 36 of fantasy football rankings and ADP because of it (35th overall).

However, there were always question marks surrounding Richardson’s ability to produce along with the emergence of Josh Downs, who had flashed in 2023. Richardson completed a shockingly poor 47% of his pass attempts while Downs outproduced Pittman, finishing as the WR39 in half-PPR in points per game while Pittman finished as the WR59 with Alec Pierce also outproducing him on a per-game basis.

The quarterback situation will be the biggest issue for the Colts in 2025, but seeing how these wide receivers are drafted will also be fascinating.

Travis Etienne (RB – JAX)

If you drafted Travis Etienne in 2024 as the RB10 you had to accept the element of risk involved in doing so. Etienne had failed to put together a consistent season the previous two years, typically fading across the back half of the year and looking like he needed fewer touches. This was a sentiment shared by the coaching staff, who before the 2023 NFL Draft had talked about needing someone else to mix into that room and eventually drafting Tank Bigsby.

While Bigsby was an utter failure in his rookie season, he turned things around to an OK level in 2025, or at least enough to take touches away from Etienne, with him seeing 70 fewer rush attempts than his previous career-low of 220 as well as managing a career-low 254 receiving yards.

With another Jacksonville rebuild on the horizon, we’ve potentially seen the last of Etienne in Duval County. Maybe he turns it around elsewhere, but right now, it would be hard to draft him within the top 100 picks of fantasy drafts, coming off an RB42 finish.

Bo Nix (QB – DEN)

It wasn’t just the fantasy football community that was wrong about Bo Nix, the vast consensus of football fans and the draft community were shocked when Sean Payton selected Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick. What was clear from the get-go was Nix had little competition. If he could execute Payton’s system we were looking at a 17-game starter.

Nix, however, was far more than a low-end quarterback in his rookie season, which is where he was ranked — 192 overall ADP (QB29). He had eight top-12 finishes, buoyed by 385 rushing yards, helping make up for the lack of perceived weapons. Nix finished as the QB9 in points per game. Nix will be viewed as a low-end QB1 in 2025. With some better pass-catchers, even that might be too low.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC)

Look how little the Chargers paid him, the detractors cried, as J.K. Dobbins took a deal with only $50,000 in guarantees. The doubters pointed towards a better contract for Gus Edwards, who was “sure to be the No. 1 RB.” Unfortunately for those haters, Edwards continued to look as bad as he had in the second half of 2023 while Dobbins made an impressive recovery from his torn Achilles.

While the explosivity didn’t last after the first couple of games, Dobbins still set career highs in rushing attempts (195), rushing yards (905), yards per game (69.6), targets (38) and receptions (32). Dobbins was ranked as the RB52 (167 overall), but he finished as the RB17, giving a fairly solid floor for teams who waited on running back. Dobbins is back to being a free agent once again, but with the right landing spot, he’ll be ranked around pick 100 once.

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)

Landing a late-round quarterback with week-winning potential is a proven way to help your fantasy team excel, and while even the most arduous supporters of Baker Mayfield might have been surprised by his QB5 finish, the signs were there in 2023. Mayfield finished that year with 10 finishes as QB14 or higher, gelling with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and finishing as the QB9 in total points.

That wasn’t enough to get Mayfield ranked inside the top 100, though, settling in around the 150 mark. He shoved it in everyone’s faces and finished as the QB5, averaging more points than Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray, to name a few.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)

2023 was the first fully healthy season of Rashod Bateman’s career. While his career had been undoubtedly disappointing for a first-round pick, there were reasons to believe Bateman had dealt with different injuries all while dealing with losing two close relatives in a short period. The Ravens believed in Bateman, signing him to a modest contract extension while letting Odell Beckham Jr. leave and outwardly supporting Bateman at every opportunity.

Still, fantasy managers didn’t like the idea of getting burned again and Bateman was ranked as the WR71 (pick 170 in ECR). Bateman might not have won leagues single-handily, but he had a career year in the best offense in football, putting up 756 yards, which was more than Deebo Samuel or Jaylen Waddle, and scoring eight touchdowns, more than A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson and Drake London.

Touchdown production can be flukey from year to year, but Bateman will be worth a top-120 pick in 2025 — if the Ravens don’t add another receiver of talent.

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

You could see this one coming, but that didn’t stop the hype. Fresh off an incredibly good rookie season, where C.J. Stroud turned the Texans’ fortunes around, he rocketed up the fantasy football rankings to 60th overall, with even the detractors having to admit a wide receiver room of Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Nico Collins should make life easy for Stroud. Yet, for several reasons, it wasn’t meant to be.

Stroud had only two top-five weekly finishes in 2023, a number beaten by 11 different quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, Sam Howell and Justin Herbert were among the eight quarterbacks who had more top-12 weekly finishes than Stroud’s seven. Stroud had the highest single weekly score of any quarterback in 2023, when he scored 40.8 fantasy points in Week 9, but he was responsible for only one more of the top-100 fantasy quarterback performances last year.

That form continued into 2024, with only two top-12 quarterback finishes for a player drafted as the QB5 or QB6. The injuries to Collins and Diggs made life harder for Stroud, as did the woeful offensive line play. The fact remains, however, that through two years, Stroud has never been a reliable fantasy asset. Being drafted with a top-60 pick to finish as the QB19 after 17 healthy games is embarrassing, to say the least.

Fantasy Football Hits

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

With the losses of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, as well as the run-focused Greg Roman taking over the Chargers’ offense, the sentiment was one of negativity toward Justin Herbert in 2024. Ladd McConkey turned out to be a revelation, but it wasn’t enough for Herbert to have the kind of year he needed to be a good fantasy quarterback, consistently throwing for a career-low 227.6 yards per game and taking a career-high 41 sacks.

Herbert was ranked 124th in ECR as the QB15, and that’s exactly where he finished in points per game. Seven top-12 weekly finishes were nice but nine as QB16 or worse were not.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

It’s a little victory, but the ECR had De’Von Achane ranked as the RB7. Achane finished as the RB6 in half-PPR points per game. Achane’s efficiency took a massive step back this year and he only managed 100+ rushing yards in a game through the first 17 weeks of the season just once, despite playing six more games and seeing 100 more attempts. He sustained fantasy viability by becoming the focal point of the Miami offense.

Achane tied Tyreek Hill and Jonnu Smith with 4.9 receptions per game and was the only player to score over seven touchdowns (11). He also led all running backs in receptions (78).

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS)

The RB30 was ranked 94th coming into the season, as the RB29, while ECR was ahead of ADP by eight spots on Brian Robinson Jr. and his perfectly fine season. Robinson finished as a top-24 back in nine of his 13 games and only scored single-digit PPR points in just four games.

Robinson had a career-high 799 rushing yards along with career highs in touchdowns (eight) and yards per carry (4.3). Robinson was rarely spectacular with only one 20-point game, but consistent reliability isn’t a bad thing in managed formats.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)

Sean Payton has always loved a running back by committee approach, and Javonte Williams was a long way away from the days when he looked like one of the most explosive and fun running backs in the league. Sadly, those days look to have been taken away from us due to the torn ACL and other damage Williams suffered in 2022.

While most fans and analysts were happy to see Williams healthy, nobody wanted to rank him much higher than 97th overall (RB31), which is exactly where Williams ended up in total points. Williams is now a pending free agent after failing to average above 3.7 yards per carry in his last two games and combining for a total of seven touchdowns in his last 33 games. It’s hard to imagine we rank Williams much higher in 2025.

Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN)

Another player with talent but who burned fantasy managers previously is Calvin Ridley. He was ranked as WR35 in 2024, sitting around the 67th overall spot in the rankings. Trepidation was felt over the new coaching staff in Tennessee along with Will Levis‘ volatility.

Ridley went on to have a reasonable season with his second consecutive 1,000-yard season and 120 targets, but only 64 of those found their way safely into his hands. He finished as the WR38. With the right quarterback upgrade in Tennessee, Ridley may become a value fantasy football pick in 2025 drafts.