The fantasy football season has ended and it’s time to turn our attention again to fantasy baseball. Before we put fantasy football completely on the back burner, let’s explore a fantasy football draft strategy: Value-based drafting (VBD).
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Fantasy Baseball Value-Based Drafting Primer
What is Value-Based Drafting (VBD)?
Value-based drafting is a strategy in which players are selected based on their relative value to other players at the same position. In fantasy football, consider how quarterbacks are generally drafted after running backs and wide receivers, even though they usually outscore them. We use the same strategy in baseball to make sure we aren’t missing out on value later in the draft. Here are the three terms to familiarize yourself with regarding VBD strategy: VONA, VOLS and VORP.
VONA, VOLS & VORP
- VONA (Value Over Next Available) — What is the value of Player A compared to Player B at the same position for your next pick?
- VOLS (Value Over Last Starter) — What is the value of Player A compared to the last player drafted, at this position, as a starter?
- VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) — What is the value of Player A compared to the next best player, at this position, on waivers?
Let’s use a 12-team standard points league roster, FantasyPros’ average draft position (ADP) and CBS’ projected fantasy points in 2025 to find the VONA, VOLS and VORP for Bobby Witt Jr. We’ll use a roster of: 1-C, 1-1B, 1-2B, 1-3B, 1-SS, 3-OF, 1-UTIL, 5-SP, 2-RP and 5 bench spots.
VONA
Bobby Witt Jr. is the first shortstop off the board (ADP of 2.0) with a projection of 598 fantasy points. The next available shortstop at this pick could be Trea Turner (ADP of 22.0) or Corey Seager (ADP of 38.5). They are projected for 465 fantasy points and 432 fantasy points, respectively. Witt has a VONA of +133 fantasy points compared to Turner and +166 compared to Seager.
VOLS
We’ll find the last started drafted to calculate VOLS. The 12th starting shortstop by ADP is Nico Hoerner (118.8). He has a fantasy points projection of 376. Witt’s VOLS is +222 fantasy points compared to Hoerner.
VORP
The first shortstop not drafted (outside of 250 ADP) is Trevor Story. Story’s ADP is 251.0 and his fantasy points projection for this year is 344. Witt has a VORP of +254 fantasy points compared to Story.
VBD During the Draft
One of the best ways to visualize value-based drafting is to create tiers for each position. During the draft, your strategy can and will change multiple times depending on how the draft unfolds. Knowing which players at each position you are comfortable with drafting will help you tremendously in knowing when the value is running low at a position.
Using FantasyPros’ tools, you can create your custom cheat sheet and adjust your positional tiers for your league. Your drafting experience can be greatly altered by a little preparation and knowing where the values can be had.
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