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Fantasy Baseball Busts: Triston Casas, Ceddanne Rafaela, Francisco Alvarez, Alex Bregman

Every year leagues are lost because players bust, get injured or underperform expectations. Sometimes these issues are unavoidable, but sometimes there are red flags we ignore when it come to potential fantasy baseball busts. Here are fantasy baseball busts you should not draft based on average draft position data (ADP) from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

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Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters to Avoid

Avoid these fantasy baseball busts in 2025 drafts.

Triston Casas (1B – BOS) | NFBC ADP: 114.29

Triston Casas was great when he was on the field last year, hitting 13 home runs in just 243 plate appearances, but he missed most of the season with an injury.

Casas is a former top prospect with a lot of power, but his issue is contact. He made just 76.7% zone contact and had a 31.7% strikeout rate last season. He does walk but the scary contact numbers could lead to a crating in average, which is backed up by a .219 expected batting average (xBA).

Alex Bregman (3B – FA) | NFBC ADP: 143.88

This has nothing to do with the fact Alex Bregman hasn’t signed yet because he will land somewhere. The main issue is it won’t be in Houston with that fantastic lineup and the Crawford Boxes, which were perfect for his pull-happy approach.

Unless he lands in a similarly good park, he is going to take a big hit in power and counting categories in 2025.

Ceddanne Rafaela (2B, SS, OF – BOS) | NFBC ADP: 173.24

Ceddanne Rafaela has loud tools with good power and a lot of speed. However, he struggles with his approach and contact skills. His 49.5% O-Swing was the worst of any qualified hitter in baseball and his 79.7% z-contact was eighth-worst in baseball.

The Red Sox loves his defense, so he likely will keep a roll, but he could crush your average and hit at the bottom of the order unless he fixes these issues.

Francisco Alvarez (C – NYM) | NFBC ADP: 154.77

Francisco Alvarez is a former top prospect who has flashed power at the position. The problem is his hype outweighs the production.

The contact skills aren’t great and while he hits the ball hard, a lot of it is on the ground, which limits the homer upside. There are just too many issues for him to be going this high.

FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Draft Wizard


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