Maybe it is just me, but this offseason has come around quickly. We are into the New Year. Early drafts are taking place and prep is underway. Based on early National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) data, here are five potential fantasy football busts at their current cost.
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Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid
ADP is from 12/1/24 through 1/6/25.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B/OF – NYY) | ADP: 25
I like to make a case for an early-round fade. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a stud in roto formats on a per/plate appearance basis. That, right there, is the main argument to be out on him. His health track record has been rough, to say the least. Before playing 147 games last year, Chisholm only managed to start 100 games just once at the MLB level — 124 games in 2021 (three years prior, for those keeping score at home).
This is not a full fade though. Where you have multiple injured list (IL) slots or in shallow formats where replacement value off the waiver wire can bridge gaps in playing time, that is where I would take my shots. However, in deeper formats (like 15 teams or more) he carries far too much risk banking on his health with a second-round price tag in those formats. There is far more safety in the health and various profiles of players going around him.
Gerrit Cole (SP – NYY) | ADP: 61
We saw Gerrit Cole ramp up the velocity in the postseason and show he was healthy enough to finish 2024. Even so, there are reasons to be concerned about him as he enters 2025. The former workhorse entered 2024 pitching at least 180 innings in three straight seasons. He managed to eclipse 200 innings in back-to-back seasons in 2022 and 2023. Then he entered 2025 with an injury that limited him to just 95 innings in the regular season.
Cole proved to be human and with age not on his side, could we start seeing the innings be a concern? You do not need to look too far to see former aces struggle to complete seasons as they age (Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, etc). But beyond the concerns in health, there is also just a decline in the stuff overall.
Cole’s K:BB% has declined for four consecutive seasons now. Last season’s 17.9% mark last was his lowest since 2017. The stuff+ has declined each of the previous two seasons. At just 111 last season, it was the lowest it has ever been (since 2020). I think he will still be a good pitcher. But the reason for the “bust” tag is more about where he is going and who is going around him. There are pitchers on the rise or other options who feel safer in their production without these warts in the profile over the last couple of seasons.
Robert Suarez (RP – SD) | ADP: 79
First, ADP for relievers over at NFBC will be different than any other format. However, Robert Suarez is the 10th relief pitcher off the board. That is where I view him as a bust. It is hard to see him as a top-10 relief pitcher in 2025. If he is traded, he has a chance to salvage his draft cost, but the way the second-half production fell way off paired with the plethora of options in the bullpen has me concerned about his job security if he struggles early on.
Suarez’s second-half stats:
- 14 saves
- 4 blown saves
- 14% K:BB%
- 4.28 ERA
- 3.72 FIP
- 3.67 xFIP
- 3.62 SIERA
The second-half performance was lackluster. And you have strong options in Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada ready to take over. There’s even Yuki Matsui, who they signed just last offseason and showed notable improvements in the second half after what was likely an adjustment period in the first half.
Marcus Semien (2B – TEX) | ADP: 88
This feels like one of those foolish fades but entering 2025, I am out on Marcus Semien. Yes, he has been as bankable for his numbers as anyone over these last handful of years, but entering his age-34 season and coming off his worst season since 2018 (excluding 2020), this could be the beginning of the end.
Semien has never been one to have flashy peripherals. His approach has been the reason for the power production. He pulls a ton of balls in the air. This helps the power play up but it will also lead to a lower Bbatting average on balls in play (ABIP) output and, in turn, a lower batting average as well. Even with Semien putting up his usual 700+ plate appearances, he managed to hit just 23 home runs and steal just eight bases last year. That was his lowest home run output since 2018 and the first time he stole fewer than 10 bases since 2014.
Semien is a player who requires the volume to produce the numbers you need from him, but he showed that even with the volume he can fall short of expectations. He is now another year older and although he has been able to stay healthy, there is always more potential for injury as you age on top of the usual dip in production we get from aging players.
Lane Thomas (OF – CLE) | ADP: 170
Lane Thomas is a player who has shown flashes in the past, but he has some notable red flags in his profile. Last year, he did his usual thing against left-handed pitchers (.878 OPS/.378 wOBA/ 146 wRC+). Against right-handed pitchers, though, he flat-out struggled, hitting .214 with a .646 OPS, .283 wOBA and an 82 wRC+.
Unfortunately for Thomas, the splits have been more than a single-season issue. His career numbers against righties are right in line with last year’s output. Pair that concern in production against righties with him being on a team we have seen willing to platoon their hitters and you have a recipe for disaster. His playing time, even in Cleveland, is no sure thing if he starts out struggling against right-handed pitchers right out of the gate.
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