The Primer: Week 17 Thursday Night Football Seahawks vs. Bears (2024 Fantasy Football)

Happy Holidays, everyone. Enjoy all of the football, family, and fun.

Welcome to the Week 17 Primer for Thursday Night Football Seahawks vs. Bears. Enjoy.

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Fantasy Football Primer

Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears

• Watch Live on Fubo
• SEA -3.5, O/U 43
• Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 11, Seattle has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking fourth in neutral passing rate. During the same span, Chicago has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at 16th in neutral passing rate.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

*Assuming that Zach Charbonnet will get the start in Week 17.*

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Geno Smith (QB)

Last week was Smith’s first QB1 outing (QB5) since Week 9. Since Week 11, he has been the QB28 in fantasy points per game. Smith could be a QB1 again this week. Since Week 11, among 38 qualifying passers, he has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. It hasn’t been all doom and gloom, though. During the same period, Smith has also been ranked third in CPOE and eighth in highly accurate throw rate. The Bears pass defense has given up. Since Week 11, they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the most yards per attempt, and the fourth-most passing touchdowns. Since Week 11, they have also been repeatedly burned by downfield passing, giving up the most deep passing yards per game and the second-highest CPOE. Smith has the seventh-most deep passing attempts this season.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Charbonnet will draw the start this week. In his four games as the starter for Seattle, he has averaged 19.5 touches and 108.7 total yards. He has had weekly finishes as Seattle’s lead back of RB8, RB7, RB1, and RB17. Among 64 qualifying rushers, Charbonnet ranks tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet should steamroll the Bears this week. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and the eighth-highest yards before contact per attempt.

DK Metcalf (WR)

Since Week 11, Metcalf has been the WR42 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 19.5% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 30.7% first-read share. Across the last six games, Metcalf has three end-zone targets and two red-zone targets. Metcalf could have a wonderful bounce-back game this week. Since Week 10, Chicago has had the eighth-highest single-high rate (59.7%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Metcalf has had a 26.5% target share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 39.6% first-read share. Metcalf should also lead the charge with downfield passing. Since Week 11, he has led the team with ten deep targets. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Smith-Njigba is the WR13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th among wide receivers in red zone targets. Since Week 11, he has been the WR10 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 25% target share and 29.8% first-read share with 2.67 YPRR. Since Week 10, Chicago has had the eighth-highest single-high rate (59.7%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Smith-Njigba has had a 27.7% target share, 2.89 YPRR, and a 29.2% first-read share. In the last six games, he has ranked second on the team in deep targets, behind only Metcalf. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the most PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen has benefited from some good matchups, improved play from Caleb Wiliams, and the passing game getting leaned on in catch-up mode because of the Bears’ leaky defense. Since Week 11, Allen has been the WR12 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 28% target share with 2.08 YPRR and a 31.5% first-read share. Allen should see another heavy-volume game this week. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fourth-highest two high rate (59.1%). Since Week 11, against two-high, Allen has seen a boost to his numbers with a 31% target share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. This isn’t a pushover matchup for Allen, but he should lead the way for Chicago’s passing attack and has the talent to overcome any difficulties. Since Week 11, Seattle has ranked 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to slot receivers while holding the position to the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game.

Noah Fant (TE)

Since Week 13, Fant has been the TE32 in fantasy points per game while seeing two red zone targets. In his last four games, Fant has had a 15.3% target share and a 15% first-read share with 1.04 YPRR. Fant is a strong streaming option this week against a pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game, the highest yards per reception, and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Since Week 11, Williams has been the QB13 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams has ranked 18th in fantasy points per dropback and CPOE and 21st in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate. Williams is a QB2 again this week. Since Week 11, Seattle has given up the third-lowest CPOE, the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, and the tenth-fewest passing yards per game.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Since Week 11, Swift has been the RB35 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.2 touches and 64.2 total yards per game. Across his last six games, among 50 qualifying backs, he has ranked 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 31st in yards after contact per attempt, and 32nd in explosive run rate. Swift will have a tough time getting going this week against a massively improved run defense for Seattle. Since Week 11, they have held backs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, fourth-fewest explosive run rate, and the 12th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Walker hasn’t practiced this week. I doubt that he will play this week.

DJ Moore (WR)

Since Week 11, Moore has been the WR15 in fantasy points per game, seeing six red zone targets (two scores). During that span, Moore has had a 26.2% target share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 33.6% first-read share. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fourth-highest two high rate (59.1%). Since Week 11, against two-high, Moore has seen his numbers dip with a 21.6% target share, 1.48 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share. This could be a down week for Moore. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Sit Odunze this week. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fourth-highest two high rate (59.1%). Since Week 11, against two-high, Odunze has had a 20.7% target share with 1.28 YPRR and a 24.1% first-read share. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 11, Odunze has managed double-digit fantasy points only twice, and I don’t think he will add a third game to that ledger this week.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet has been a ghost recently. Over the last three games, he has only three receptions, 23 receiving yards, and a score. Even looking back all the way to Week 11, it doesn’t get much better for Kmet when looking at his success against two high. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fourth-highest two high rate (59.1%). Since Week 11, against two-high, Kmet has had a 9.5% target share, 0.79 YPRR, and a 7.6% first-read share. Across the last six games, Kmet has only two red zone targets, both of which come via Week 12. The matchup is decent enough to put Kmet on the fringe of the streaming radar for this week. Seattle has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most receptions per game to tight ends.

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*