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Welcome to the Week 17 Primer for the NFL Saturday Tripleheader.

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Fantasy Football Primer

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots

• Watch Live on Fubo
• LAC -4, O/U 42.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 8, Los Angeles has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 18th in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last eight games, New England has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Since Week 8, Herbert has been the QB14 in fantasy points per game while logging six QB1 outings. Among 35 qualifying passers, he has ranked ninth in yards per attempt, 12th in passer rating, seventh in CPOE, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Herbert should flirt with QB1 production again this week. Since Week 11, New England has remained a nice matchup for quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 15th-highest yards per attempt.

Drake Maye (QB)

Since Week 9, Maye has been the QB17 in fantasy points per game (two QB1 weeks) while averaging five rushing attempts and 39.3 rushing yards per game. Since Week 9, among 33 qualifying passers, Maye ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 12th in CPOE, and eighth in highly accurate throw rate. Maye is a strong QB2 this week that could sneak in as a low-end QB1. Since Week 11, Los Angeles has allowed the 13th-highest passer rating and success rate per dropback, the most passing touchdowns (tied), and the tenth-most passing yards per game.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

Dobbins has practiced on a limited basis this week. He will return to lead the backfield this week with Gus Edwards out. In Weeks 1-11, Dobbins was the RB15 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.7 touches and 84.1 total yards per game. Among 64 qualifying backs, Dobbins ranks 11th in explosive run rate and 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 11, New England has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game while also giving up the second-highest success rate to gap runs while having the third-lowest stuff rate.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 69.1 total yards per game. He ranks 17th in snap share, 21st in opportunity share, and 12th in red zone touches. Among 64 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, his per-touch efficiency could get a boost against the Chargers’ hapless run defense. Since Week 11, Los Angeles has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

Overall, McConkey is the WR22 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he has been the WR14 in fantasy points per game while only seeing three red zone targets. Since Week 8, he has had a 23.1% target share, 2.98 YPRR, and a 30.1% first-read share. Since Week 13, New England has had the third-highest single-high rate (70.5%). McConkey should rip this secondary in half this week. Since Week 8, against single-high, McConkey has had a 26.2% target share, a whopping 4.13 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share. New England has allowed the 15th-most PPR points per target and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Since Week 9, Douglas has been the WR62 in fantasy points per game with only one top-36 wide receiver finish. He has seen his red-zone usage increase with four red-zone targets over his last three games. The Chargers have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (58.3%). Since Week 9, against two high, Douglas has had a 20.8% target share, 1.79 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. Since Week 11, the Bolts have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Douglas is a decent flex in PPR leagues this week.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Since Week 8, Johnston has been the WR48 in fantasy points per game while logging five weeks as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. He has five red-zone targets in the last five games. Since Week 13, New England has had the third-highest single-high rate (70.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Johnston has had strong market share metrics with a 24% target share, a 33.9% air-yard share, and a 26.3% first-read share, but his efficiency has been basement level with only 1.19 YPRR. He remains a boom-bust flex option this week. New England ranks 17th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Since Week 9, Henry has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game with a 19.8% target share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. He has four TE1 finishes and 12 red-zone targets across his last seven games. Henry is a TE2 this week with a tough matchup. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest yards per reception to tight ends.

Will Dissly (TE)

Dissly should be back in the huddle this week. He practiced on a limited basis on Tuesday and Wednesday before upgrading to a full session on Thursday. I worry that Dissly isn’t a full-time player this week, with Hayden Hurst back and Stone Smartt flashing in the last few weeks. New England is only a middle-of-the-road matchup for tight ends, so it’s not worth the risk of rolling out Dissly this week. The Patriots have allowed the 14th-fewest yards per reception and ranked 18th in fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• Watch Live on Fubo
• CIN -3.5, O/U 49.5
• Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 9, Cincy has ranked 13th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last seven games, Denver has ranked eighth in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Since Week 8, Nix has been the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying passers, he has ranked eighth in passing yards per game, fifth in passing touchdowns (tied), 14th in passer rating, and 17th in CPOE. Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and yards per attempt while sitting at 14th in passing touchdowns (tied) allowed. Nix could easily be a QB1 again this week as Denver attempts to keep pace with the Bengals’ potent offense.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Since Week 11, Williams has played 45-56% of the snaps while averaging 9.4 touches and 34.2 total yards as the RB39 in fantasy points per game. Across his last five games, Williams has been abysmal on a per-touch basis, with zero missed tackles forced and only 1.94 yards after contact per attempt. The Bengals’ run defense has been so bad that Williams could see a sizable boost to his efficiency this week. Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. With this workload capped, Williams is only a flex play/RB3 unless touchdowns flow in his direction.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)

McLaughlin will be back this week. In Weeks 12-15, McLaughlin played 24-36% of the snaps weekly while leading the way with 44% of the rushing play snaps but only seeing 24% of the red zone snaps. During these three games, he averaged 10.6 touches and 54 total yards. Since Week 12, he has had a 10.7% explosive run rate and an 18% missed tackle rate, which has been strong numbers for the Denver backfield. McLaughlin is a decent flex play this week, but there’s a low floor and tons of risk that come along with playing him. The Denver backfield is a dice roll weekly that usually doesn’t end up paying off. Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Overall, Sutton is the WR26 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 8, he has been the WR12 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 24.8% target share and 32% first-read share with 2.64 YPRR. Since Week 10, Cincy has had the seventh-highest rate of two high (58.1%). Since Week 8, against two high, Sutton has seen his numbers crater with a 17.8% target share and a 21.4% first-read share with only 1.12 YPRR. Sutton can overcome the efficiency dip with volume, but it definitely lowers his ceiling this week. The Bengals have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game while ranking 15th in fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

*Denver continues to utilize committees at wide receiver and tight end, rendering everyone unplayable in fantasy outside of Courtland Sutton.*

Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

N/A

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Watch Live on Fubo
• LAR -6.5, O/U 47.5
• Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 8, the Rams have had the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-best neutral rushing rate.
• In their last eight games, Arizona has ranked tenth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Stafford was shockingly bad last week as the QB31 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has been up and down since all of his weapons have been back in the lineup. Since Week 8, Stafford has been the QB17 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 outings. Among 35 qualifying passers, he has ranked 13th in passing yards per game, fifth in passing touchdowns (tied), seventh in passer rating, and 19th in CPOE. Stafford should have a bounceback week against the Cardinals. Their pass defense has fallen off terribly recently. Since Week 11, Arizona has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the highest CPOE.

James Conner (RB)

Conner looks like a go this week. He has been limited all week in practice (knee). He is the RB11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in opportunity share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and fourth in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.5 touches and 100 total yards per game. Among 64 qualifying backs, Conner ranks second in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Conner should have another banner day. Since Week 11, the Rams have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Since Week 8, Kupp has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game, as he has seen seven red zone targets. He has faceplanted in three of his last four games as he has failed to surpass 30 receiving yards in those games. Kupp should have a bounceback game against the Cardinals this week. Since Week 10, Arizona has had the highest two high rate in the NFL (61.5%). Since Week 8, against two high, Kupp has had a 23.9% target share, 2.74 YPRR, and a 29.3% first-read share. Arizona has also been giving to slot receivers. Since Week 11, the Cardinals have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray is the QB13 in fantasy points per game. Across his last five games, he has finished as a QB1 only once. Since Week 12, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray has been objectively terrible, ranking 25th in yards per attempt, 29th in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. The Rams pass defense has been improving. Since Week 11, they have held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and CPOE, the 14th-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-fewest passing yards per game.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison Jr. has been incredibly frustrating to roster or consider for fantasy lineups this season. The data has lined up in plenty of weeks for him to be a smash play, but only for him to post a disappointing box score. Harrison Jr. is the WR40 in fantasy points per game who hasn’t had more than 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 8. He’s had six red-zone targets in the last six games, but he only has two scores to show for it. Since Week 9, he has had a 21.5% target share, a 48.8% air-yard share, and a 30.8% first-read share, but he’s only managed 1.40 YPRR and 45 receiving yards per game with the volume. During the same period, among 93 qualifying wide receivers, he’s ranked 70th in separation and 41st in route win rate. With the volume he has seen and the matchup this week, the upside for him to have a nice game is still there, but it’s tough to believe that this will be the week that he pops off with a monster game. Since Week 11, Los Angeles has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also ranking 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*