Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 12, Carolina has ranked 14th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral rushing rate. During the same span, Tampa Bay has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 11th in neutral rushing rate.
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bryce Young | QB | QB2 |
| Raheem Blackshear | RB | RB2/3 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | WR4 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | WR3 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | WR4 |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | TE3 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB1 |
| Mike Evans | WR | WR1 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | Out |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | WR2/3 |
| Cade Otton | TE | Out |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 12, Young has been the QB11 in fantasy points per game while averaging 4.2 carries and 29.2 rushing yards per game. During this stretch, among 30 qualifying passers, Young has ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 12th in CPOE, and first in hero throw rate. Young destroyed this secondary as the QB8 for the week during their last meeting. This week, he faces a pass defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game and the 13th-highest adjusted completion rate while ranking 17th in passer rating and CPOE. Young is a QB2 that could be a QB1 this week.
Since Week 7, White has been the RB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.4 touches and 73.1 total yards. Overall, among 65 qualifying backs, White ranks 44th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. White is a strong RB2 this week. Carolina is still a dumpster fire run defense. Since Week 11, they have allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest explosive run rate.
Since Week 14, McMillan has been the WR12 in fantasy points per game, seeing two red zone targets and spiking four touchdowns. Across his last three games, he has had a 19.2% target, 2.15 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. McMillan should ball out again this week against a secondary that, since Week 11, has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 12, Thielen has been WR22 in fantasy points per game, seeing five red zone targets. In these five games, he has had a 22.5% target share, 2.19 YPRR (70.4 receiving yards per game), and a 29.6% first-read share. Thielen is a strong WR3/flex facing a Bucs secondary that, since Week 11, has ranked 15th in fantasy points per game and PPR points per target allowed to slot receivers.
Over the last two games, Coker has had an 18.5% target share, a 29.2% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. He has seen two red zone targets while running 51% of his routes from the perimeter. Coker is a nice flex play this week. Since Week 11, the Bucs have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
In Weeks 12-14, Legette had an 18.3% target share, a 29.9% air-yard share, 1.24 YPRR (49.3 receiving yards per game), and a 21.5% first-read share. He had three red zone targets during this span without scoring a touchdown. He hasn’t gotten into the endzone since Week 9. Legette is a deep-league flex only, as he’ll likely be third in the target pecking order this week behind Thielen and Coker. Since Week 11, the Bucs have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Durham finished as the TE20 in weekly scoring while having a 76% route share, a 16.3% target share, 0.76 YPRR (29 receiving yards), and a 12.1% first-read share. Durham is on the streaming radar for Week 17. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Blackshear will lead the Carolina backfield this week with Chuba Hubbard on the IR. Blackshear has only three carries this year, so there’s not much to pick apart there. In Blackshear’s career, he has had only 2.48 yards after contact per attempt and an 11.8% breakaway rate. The best part of his profile is his career 1.62 YPRR (19 career targets). With only Velus Jones Jr. on the roster, Blackshear should see substantial volume this week. Mike Boone could factor in, but he has been primarily a special teams player this season. He’ll need the volume with a tough matchup incoming. Since Week 11, Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Blackshear is a volume-based flex with RB2 upside if he gets into the end zone.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
- IND -7.5, O/U 40.5
- Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 11, Indy has ranked seventh in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate.
- Since Week 15, the Giants have had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral passing rate.
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Anthony Richardson | QB | Out |
| Joe Flacco | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Sermon | RB | RB4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR3/4 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR3 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR6 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | WR6 |
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drew Lock | QB | QB2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | RB2 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | RB4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | WR3 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | WR5 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | WR6 |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
In Flacco’s four starts this season, he has finished as the QB4, QB18, QB32, and QB14 in weekly scoring. Among 43 qualifying passers, Flacco ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 19th in passer rating, 35th in CPOE, and 42nd in highly accurate throw rate. Outside of one blowup performance this season, he has been a mediocre QB2. Flacco has a wonderful matchup again this week, but Indy should be able to stomp the Giants without having to air it out a ton. Flacco should post solid QB2 numbers this week, but I doubt he will have a monster stat line. Since Week 11, New York has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest CPOE.
Since Week 13, Tracy Jr. has been the RB22 in fantasy points per game while averaging 13.5 touches and 63 total yards. He has played 63-83% of the snaps weekly while having a 19% missed tackle rate and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. Tracy Jr. is in a good spot to return RB2 numbers again this week. Since Week 11, Indy has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
In Lock’s last three starts, Nabers has been a consistent WR3 with WR26, WR25, and WR29 weekly scoring finishes. In those three games, Nabers has had a 28.3% target share, 1.74 YPRR (72 receiving yards per game), and a 39% first-read share with four red zone targets. Nabers is a volume-based WR3/flex this week. Since Week 11, Indy has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also ranking 15th in PPR points per target given up to the position.
In Pittman Jr.’s three games with Flacco under center, he finished as the WR22, WR28, and WR82 in weekly scoring while seeing three red zone targets. In those three games, he has had a 14.5% target share, a 15.7% air-yard share, 0.91 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. Pittman’s target floor is slightly elevated with Flacco chucking passes, but his floor is still low, as the Colts shouldn’t be forced to throw a ton this week. Pittman could be pretty efficient with limited opportunities, though, against the Giants’ putrid secondary. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
In Downs’ four games with Flacco starting, he finished as the WR17, WR14, WR31, and WR20 in weekly scoring while seeing seven red zone targets (one touchdown). He had a 27.6% target share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 33% first-read share. Downs averaged 7.25 receptions and 66.8 receiving yards per game. Downs gets a bump from Flacco taking over this week, but Indy’s passing volume could still limit him. Indy likely doesn’t have to throw much this week to beat the Giants. That impacts both his ceiling and floor this week. New York has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers this season.
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Lock is a QB2 that is best left on the bench. In two of his last three starts, he has finished as the QB20 or lower in weekly scoring. In those three starts, he hasn’t managed more than 5.6 yards per attempt in any start while throwing for only one score. Lock could easily fail even to provide double-digit fantasy points this week. He’s a must-sit in all formats.
Richardson has been ruled out.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
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Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
- MIA -6.5, O/U 37.5
- Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and play calling notes
- Over the last two weeks, Cleveland has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 12th in neutral rushing rate.
- Since Week 9, Miami has had the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking fifth in neutral passing rate.
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Doubtful |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | QB2 |
| De’Von Achane | RB | RB1 |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | RB4 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | RB4 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | WR3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR4 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | TE1 |
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | QB | QB2 |
| Jerome Ford | RB | RB2 |
| Cedric Tillman | WR | Out |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | WR3 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | WR5 |
| David Njoku | TE | Out |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, Ford was the RB9 in fantasy points per game, playing 80% of the snaps and finishing with 16 touches and 131 total yards. Ford has been explosive this year. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 13th in explosive run rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Ford should have another wonderful week. Miami’s run defense has been putrid this season. Since Week 11, they have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt.
*With Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting again, the entire Cleveland offense is immensely downgraded and Jerry Jeudy is the only fantasy-viable receiving option.*
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week, Thompson-Robinson had a wonderful matchup and he still face-planted. He was the QB28 in fantasy, completing 58.8% of his passes with only 4.6 yards per attempt and a 0:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Thompson-Robinson should not be played in any format.
Tagovailoa has been downgraded to doubtful for Week 17 and will miss the game.
With Tagovailoa out, Huntley will draw the start for Miami. In his three starts this season, he has finished as QB20, QB25, and QB21 in weekly scoring. He has had only 5.7 yards per attempt, averaged 125.7 passing yards per game, and had 0.6% CPOE. Huntley has been a mediocre starting NFL quarterback while contributing only 5.3 rushing attempts and 22.3 rushing yards per game. Huntley has a great matchup this week, but I doubt he will be able to capitalize upon it. Since Week 11, they have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the 15th-highest CPOE, and the tenth-most EPA per dropback. Bench him.
In Hill’s three games with Huntley starting, Hill finished as the WR51, WR31, and WR89 in weekly scoring. He had a 21.5% target share, 1.37 YPRR (33.3 receiving yards per game), and a 28.6% first-read share. It’s tough to envision Hill having a decent ceiling this week with Huntley tossing him passes. This offense cratered earlier this season without Tagovailoa under center. Miami will lean on their rushing attack and underneath targets to Jonnu Smith. Hill is a shaky WR3 this week. Since Week 11, Cleveland has ranked 15th in receiving yards per game and 16th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
In Huntley’s three starts this season, Waddle has had two red zone targets (zero touchdowns) and hasn’t had more than 46 receiving yards in a game. He finished as the WR57, WR47, and WR91 in weekly scoring. Waddle has been a tough player to plug into lineups all year. This week with Huntley under center, he’s an easy must-sit.
Last week, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm, Jeudy had only an 8.8% target share, 0.57 YPRR (20 receiving yards), and a 13.6% first-read share. He was the WR82 in Fantasy last week. I don’t have any reason to believe that Jeudy’s outlook will improve this week as he deals with bottom-five quarterback play. If Thompson-Robinson wasn’t able to fuel Jeudy to a volume-filled successful day against Cincy, I don’t see it happening against Miami.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- PHI -7.5, O/U 38.5
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 13, Dallas has ranked second in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
- Last week, Philly ranked eighth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral rushing rate.
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
| Cooper Rush | QB | QB2 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | RB4 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | WR4 |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | WR4/5 |
| KaVontae Turpin | WR | WR6 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | TE2 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | TE | TE3 |
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kenny Pickett | QB | QB2 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB4 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR3 |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
N/A
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Since Week 11, Rush has been the QB22 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings. I don’t think he’ll be adding to the top-12 ledger this week. During that stretch, among 43 qualifying passers, he has ranked 38th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 11, Philly has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the second-lowest yards per attempt, and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback. Rush is a low-end QB2.
With Jalen Hurts still in the concussion protocol, Pickett will get the start this week. He was horrendous in relief of Hurts last week as the QB27 in fantasy. Last week, he ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 11, Dallas has allowed the 13th-most yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the eighth-most passing yards per game. Philly will look to limit Pickett this week, and hopefully, he can just play the role of game manager well enough for the team to squeeze out a victory.
Since Week 12, Dowdle has been the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 21.4 touches and 112.4 total yards. Since Week 12, among 45 qualifying backs, he has ranked 15th in explosive run rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle is a volume-based RB2 this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 11, Philly has allowed the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest EPA per rush.
Overall, Smith is the WR21 in fantasy points per game with top-24 outings in 50% of his games this season. Last week, with Pickett playing for most of the game, he finished as the WR39 for the week. He had a 25% target share, a 22.2% air-yard share, 1.5 YPRR (51 receiving yards), and a 27.8% first-read share. Pickett likely isn’t supporting multiple weapons this week, with A.J. Brown being the only receiving option assured to “get his” this week. Smith could return WR3 value this week, but I wouldn’t hope for much more this week. Since Week 11, Dallas has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
If anyone in the Dallas passing game assumes CeeDee Lamb‘s high-volume role this week, it could be Cooks, but the likely answer is no one does. Cooks could struggle this week even if he is peppered with targets. Since Week 14, Cooks has had a 10.5% target share, 1.16 YPRR (28.3 receiving yards per game), and an 8.1% first-read share. Since Week 11, Philly has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Even with CeeDee Lamb sidelined, I don’t see Tolbert’s role changing much this week. Cooks and Ferguson will likely lead the passing game against Philly. Since Week 14, Tolbert has had a 7.4% target share, averaged 10.3 receiving yards per game (0.70 YPRR), and had an 8.1% first-read share. Tolbert is best left on waiver wires. Since Week 11, Philly has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week was Ferguson’s first TE1 finish (TE12) since Week 9. Since Week 14, he has had an 18.9% target share, 1.48 YPRR (31.7 receiving yards per game), zero red-zone targets, and a 24.2% first-read share. He’s a middling TE2 again this week. Philly has held tight ends to the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game.
Calcaterra hasn’t had more than three receptions or 22 receiving yards in any of his last three starts. He didn’t even draw a target against the Commanders last week. With Pickett under center this week, Calcaterra is a must-sit and isn’t on the streaming radar.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
