Happy Holidays, everyone. Enjoy all of the football, family, and fun.
Welcome to the Week 17 Primer.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
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Fantasy Football Primer
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
- BUF -10, O/U 46
- New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 11, Buffalo has ranked 14th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral rushing rate. Across their last five games, New York has ranked eighth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | QB1/2 |
| Breece Hall | RB | RB2 |
| Isaiah Davis | RB | RB4 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | RB5 |
| Davante Adams | WR | WR1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | WR2 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | TE3 |
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 |
| James Cook | RB | RB1 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB4 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR3 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | WR4 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR5 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WR6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE2 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | TE3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Rodgers has finished as a QB1 in two of the last three weeks (QB11, QB4). Since Week 14, among 39 qualifying passers, Rodgers has ranked tenth in yards per attempt and passer rating, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. The Bills’ pass defense has been struggling the last few weeks. This could allow Rodgers to turn back the clock some and look fantastic this week. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns (tied), and the fourth-highest passer rating.
Last week, Hall was reinserted into his workhorse role, playing 77% of the snaps with 19 touches and 90 total yards. Overall, he is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Hall should find room to operate this week as a strong RB2. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 17th-highest rushing success rate.
Since Week 9, Wilson has been the WR27 in fantasy points per game while seeing five red-zone targets. The Bills have the fourth-highest two high rate in the NFL (54.1%). Since Week 9, against two high, Wilson has had an 18% target share, 1.39 YPRR, and a 22.7% first-read share. Adams has been leading the way against two high since Week 9. If Adams is out, Wilson could be leaned on heavily this week. If Adams is active, Wilson falls behind him in the pecking order this week. Wilson has a nice matchup this week that he can carve up. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Adams’ status is up in the air for Week 17 as he has been dealing with a hip issue. Overall, he is the WR6 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in deep targets and third in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 9, he has been the WR3 in fantasy points per game, seeing 15 red zone targets. The Bills have the fourth-highest two high rate in the NFL (54.1%). Since Week 9, against two high, Adams has been a volume hog with a 29.7% target share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. If Adams is active, he should eat again this week. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 7, Shakir has been the WR30 in fantasy points per game while logging four outings as a top-24 wideout in weekly fantasy scoring. He has four red-zone targets in his last five games. Since Week 10, the Jets have had the 11th-highest single-high rate (57.1%). Since Week 7, against single-high, Shakir has had a 22.5% target share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 26.3% first-read share. Shakir is a WR2/3 facing a Jets’ secondary that, since Week 11, has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Cooper has been a ghost recently, with less than 60 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He has only one reception and ten receiving yards over his last two games. It’s tough to believe in Cooper this week. Since Week 10, the Jets have had the 11th-highest single-high rate (57.1%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Cooper has had a 27% TPRR and 22.4% first-read share, but he’s only produced 1.29 YPRR. If you’re in desperation mode, then Cooper is flex-worthy, but I don’t want to count on him to take home a fantasy title this week. Since Week 11, New York has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also ranking 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
Over the last two games, Coleman has only had a 6.3% target share, a 21% air-yard share, and a 3.2% first-read share. This isn’t enough volume to be fantasy-viable. In his last three games played, he has had two targets and only one reception per game. Bench Coleman this week.
Over the last two games, Kincaid has had a 22.2% target share (41% TPRR), 2.0 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. All of those numbers are immaculate, but now it’s time to talk about the downside. He has only averaged 39 receiving yards per game while logging a putrid 47.9% route share. He has finished as the TE14 and TE25 in those weeks in weekly scoring while only seeing one red zone target. Kincaid isn’t worth the risk this week. Bench him. The Jets have held tight ends to the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- JAC -0.5, O/U 39.5
- Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and play calling notes
- Over the last two weeks, Tennessee has had the 11th-slowest neutral pace with the ninth-best neutral rushing rate. During the same span, Jacksonville has ranked second in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Mason Rudolph | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | Out |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB2 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | WR2/3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | WR5 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | WR6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE1/2 |
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Mac Jones | QB | QB2 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB3 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR1 |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR5 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
In Rudolph’s four starts this season, he has finished higher than QB15 in weekly scoring only once. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 16th in CPOE, and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. Rudolph should post strong QB2 numbers again this week. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest passer rating.
Since Week 10, Jones has been the QB32 in fantasy points per game while having two QB1 weeks (QB12, QB8). Among 43 qualifying passers this season, Jones ranks 36th in yards per attempt, 39th in passer rating, 28th in CPOE, and 38th in fantasy points per dropback. Jones should turn in a nice QB2 stat line for Week 17. Since Week 11, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the fourth-highest success rate per dropback.
Since Week 10, Etienne has been the RB40 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.3 touches and 54.3 total yards. He hasn’t been exceptionally efficient, with only a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.84 yards after contact per attempt. Etienne saw workhorse usage in Week 15, but last week, his snap rate dropped to 52%. Etienne could be a nice flex this week against Tennessee’s broken run defense. Since Week 11, the Titans have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-most yards before contact per attempt.
Over the last two weeks, Bigsby has averaged 27% of the snaps with 12 touches and 46.5 total yards. Since Week 15, Bigsby has had 71% of the red zone rushing attempts for the backfield. Since Week 13, Bigsby has retained his per-touch efficiency with a 19% missed tackle rate and 2.88 yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby is a decent flex play again this week, as Bigsby has a wonderful early down matchup this week. Since Week 11, the Titans have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-most yards before contact per attempt.
Over the last two games, Spears has played 56-61% of the snaps, averaging 11.5 touches and 79 total yards. He has finished as the RB3 and RB10 in weekly scoring over the last two weeks. Spears has only a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.14 yards after contact per attempt over the last two weeks, but it hasn’t slowed him down for fantasy purposes. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has ranked 15th in rushing yards per game and 16th in yards before contact per attempt while allowing the fourth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Spears 57.1% gap over the last two weeks). With Tony Pollard out, Spears will be the team’s workhorse this week.
In Mason Rudolph‘s four starts, Ridley has finished as the WR47, WR5, WR30, and WR18 in weekly scoring. In those four games, he has averaged 15 fantasy points per game with a 25.5% target share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 35.1% first-read share with two red zone targets. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Over the last two games, Okonkwo has been the TE1 in fantasy points per game with a 26.4% target share, 2.80 YPRR, and a 35.7% first-read share. He has averaged 70 receiving yards per game while not seeing any red-zone targets. Okonkwo is a TE1 this week. Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Pollard has been ruled out.
Last week, Strange’s route share dropped to 48% while seeing a 10.3% target share and 17.4% first-read share while producing 1.16 YPRR (22 receiving yards) and a TE39 finish. Strange is a TE2 this week with a tough matchup. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 11, Green Bay has had the slowest neutral pace and the second-best neutral rushing rate. Across their last six games, Minnesota has had the 14th-slowest neutral pace and ranked ninth in neutral passing rate.
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jordan Love | QB | QB1/2 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | RB1 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | WR3 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | WR3/4 |
| Christian Watson | WR | WR5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | TE1 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2 |
| Cam Akers | RB | RB4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR2 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 8, Love has been the QB28 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 outings. He has been stellar on a per-dropback basis, but passing volume has been a problem. Since Week 8, Love ranks 25th in pass attempts and 24th in passing yards per game, but he’s also first in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback during this span. Love could add to his QB1 tally this week. Since Week 11, Minnesota has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the 12th-highest yards per attempt, and the tenth-highest CPOE.
Reed is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He has seen seven red zone targets in his last six games, but in that span, he has surpassed 40 receiving yards in a game only once. The entire receiving depth chart has been hurt over the last few weeks, with Green Bay leaning on the run so diligently. The last time Reed faced Minnesota, he was the WR2 for the week, rolling up seven receptions and 139 receiving yards (one touchdown). Reed could have another banner day in Week 17. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (65.3%). Since Week 8, against two high, Reed has ranked second on the team with a 25% TPRR and 23.2% first-read share while only managing 1.43 YPRR. The efficiency could be aided this week against a secondary that, since Week 11, has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Since Week 8, Doubs has finished as a top-24 receiver only once in weekly scoring while seeing only two red zone targets. This could be a nice bounceback game for him. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (65.3%). Since Week 8, against two high, Doubs has had a 23% TPRR, 1.96 YPRR, and a 24.4% first-read share. Since Week 11, Minnesota has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 10, Hockenson has been the TE17 in fantasy points per game while logging three TE1 weeks. He has five red-zone targets across his last four games. Since Week 10, Hockenson has had a 16.7% target share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 19.5% first-read share. Hockenson should be a TE1 again this week. Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Kraft is the TE12 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has a 13% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 12.3% first-read share. Kraft should hover around TE1 production again this week. In the last five weeks, Minnesota has given up the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Jones is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in opportunity share, 12th in weighted opportunity, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.3 touches and 92.9 total yards per game. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 38th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones will have a tough time running against his former team this week. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Addison has been on fire over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, Addison has been the WR11 in fantasy points per game, seeing 14 red zone targets (seven touchdowns). Since Week 11, Green Bay has had the eighth-highest two high rate in the NFL (54.5%). Since Week 9, against two high, Addison has had a 21.1% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. Addison is likely looking at a quieter week against Green Bay. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Watson is dealing with a knee issue and hasn’t practiced all week. Even if he plays, he could only have a part-time role. It’s impossible to bet on him as a flex play this week.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
Pace and play calling notes
- Over the last two weeks, Las Vegas has ranked seventh in neutral pace and 15th in neutral passing rate. During the same span, New Orleans has led the NFL in neutral pace while ranking eighth in neutral rushing rate.
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Aidan O’Connell | QB | QB2 |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | RB3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB | RB3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR2/3 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | WR5 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | TE1 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | TE2/3 |
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
| Spencer Rattler | QB | QB2 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | RB3/4 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | RB4 |
| Chris Olave | WR | Out |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | WR5 |
| Dante Pettis | WR | WR6 |
| Kevin Austin | WR | WR6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, Mattison played 57% of the snaps overall, 69% of the rushing play snaps, and had a 67% snap rate in the red zone. He finished last week with 16 touches and 56 total yards (one score) as the RB19 for the week. Mattison hasn’t been an impressive player this year, with only a 12% missed tackle rate and 2.12 yards after contact per attempt. He could survive again this week as a flex play with volume and touchdown equity alone. We know the efficiency won’t be there. Since Week 11, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest rushing success rate.
In Meyers’ two starts with Aidan O’Connell under center, he has had WR25 and WR64 weekly finishes, drawing a 20.5% target share and 26.1% first-read share with 1.92 YPRR. He saw one red zone target (zero scores). Meyers is a strong WR3/flex play this week. Since Week 11, New Orleans has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
*I can’t trust a single pass catcher for New Orleans with Rattler under center. Last week, no New Orleans pass catcher had more than 33 receiving yards. This offense has fallen apart and legitimately might not field a single fantasy-viable player in Week 17.*
Fantasy Football Week 17 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
In his last two full starts, O’Connell has finished as the QB13 and QB26 in weekly scoring. Among 43 qualifying passers, O’Connell has been bad, ranking 30th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 37th in fantasy points per dropback, and 39th in CPOE. O’Connell remains a low-end QB2 this week. Since Week 11, New Orleans’ pass defense has shown some life, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.
Rattler has been objectively terrible this season. In three of his four NFL starts, he has failed to surpass 180 passing yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, and 6.5 fantasy points. He’s not fantasy-viable in any format. It’s simple. Don’t play Rattler.
Miller can’t be trusted for fantasy this week. Last week, he didn’t get the workhorse role that many had hoped or projected. In the first half, he played only 44% of the snaps as the Saints worked in other backs. He finished last week’s game with 39% of the snaps with ten touches and 31 total yards. The Saints have essentially tossed in the towel for 2024. This team can’t be trusted to feed Miller to a point where he can overcome the putrid offensive environment and the lack of scoring opportunities.
Last week, Abdullah finished as the RB15 in fantasy points per game with 12 touches and 85 total yards (one score). He played 31% of the rushing play snaps, 51% of the passing down snaps, and had a 33% snap rate in the red zone. Abdullah really needs the Saints to get a lead so he can see more passing down snaps. I worry that the Raiders could get a lead early on the Saints, and fantasy GMs will see more Alexander Mattison than they want in Week 17. New Orleans has also not been kind to passing down backs, holding them to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-lowest yards per reception. Sit Abdullah in Week 17.
NYJ vs. BUF | TEN vs. JAC | GB vs. MIN | LV vs. NO | CAR vs. TB | IND vs. NYG | MIA vs. CLE | DAL vs. PHI | ATL vs. WAS | DET vs. SF
