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The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Pace and play calling notes

  • In the last two weeks, Jacksonville has ranked eighth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
  • In Aidan O’Connell‘s last two starts, the Raiders were 18th in neutral pace and 15th in neutral rushing rate.

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football) | FantasyPros
Mac Jones QB QB2
Tank Bigsby RB RB3/4
Travis Etienne Jr. RB RB2/3
Brian Thomas Jr. WR WR2
Parker Washington WR WR5
Brenton Strange TE TE1

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aidan O’Connell (QB)

O’Connell is hopefully back this week. He has been a run-of-the-mill QB2 outside of his spike week against the Chiefs. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 40th in CPOE, and 41st in highly accurate throw rate. This could be another Chiefs’ situation this week, though, as a bad pass defense could help to elevate O’Connell’s production. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-most yards per attempt, and the ninth-most fantasy points via passing.

Mac Jones (QB)

Jones has posted QB1 finishes in two of his last three games (QB12, QB8). That doesn’t mean that he has played well, but much like O’Connell on the other side, Jones’ fantasy production could be elevated this week because of the quality of the opponent he is squaring off against. Among 43 qualifying passers, Jones ranks 36th in yards per attempt, 41st in passer rating, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, and 38th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

It’s a one-game sample, but last week, Etienne took over again as the team’s workhorse, handling a 73% snap share with 18 touches and 85 total yards. Etienne also had a 75% snap share once the team was in the red zone. Over the last two weeks, Etienne has still looked like a hampered version of himself, with zero explosive runs and only a 6% missed tackle rate. Since Week 10, the Raiders have ranked 15th in explosive run rate and 18th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Etienne is a volume-fueled RB2/3 this week.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Last week, Bigsby saw his role decline, with only a 26% snap share overall and a 25% snap share in the red zone. He finished with 11 carries and 42 rushing yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Bigsby is still crushing it in per-touch efficiency, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackle rate, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby is a worrisome flex play this week after seeing his role cut last week, but if the Jags stomp the Raiders this week, he could get some more work late salting the clock away. Since Week 10, the Raiders have ranked 15th in explosive run rate and 18th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Alexander Mattison (RB)

With Sincere McCormick headed to the IR, it looks like the Raiders will divide up the backfield work this week between Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. Last week, in the second half of the game, Mattison handled 80% of the rushing play snaps, 41.9% of the passing down snaps, and none of the red zone snaps. The team only had one snap in the red zone in the second half, so I wouldn’t go nuts with that fact. I expect Mattison to handle the early down work this week and get some red zone snaps, but the game script will likely dictate how much red zone usage he sees. Among 61 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt. Mattison is a solid flex play this week.

Ameer Abdullah (RB)

Abdullah will be the passing down back this week. Last week, in the second half, he handled 20% of the rushing play snaps, 58.1% of the passing down snaps, and the only red zone snap. Abdullah has had a 17% TPRR and 0.88 YPRR this season. In PPR leagues, if you’re in a pinch, Abdullah makes some sense as a flex play this week. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-highest yards per reception and the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs this year. The Jaguars need to jump out to an early lead and stay ahead for Abdullah to see a lot of work this week.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Thomas Jr. is the WR16 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 10, Thomas Jr. has had a 26.5% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 32.8% first-read share. Thomas Jr. has six red-zone targets in his last three games. He should destroy a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Since Week 4, Meyers has been the WR25 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 25.4% target share with 1.91 YPRR and a 33% first-read share. He has averaged 72.2 receiving yards per game while only seeing three red zone targets in his last six games. Meyers is a volume-fueled flex play again this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Brenton Strange (TE)

Last week, Strange had a 26.1% target share, 1.83 YPRR, and a 35.3% first-read share as he finished as the TE2 for the week. Strange finished with one red-zone target, 12 targets, 11 receptions, and 73 scoreless receiving yards. Strange is a TE1 again this week. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

N/A

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

Pace and play calling notes

  • In the last two weeks, the 49ers have ranked 16th in neutral pace while leading on Brock Purdy‘s arm (ninth in neutral passing rate).
  • Since Week 11, Miami has had the third-slowest neutral pace and the second-best neutral passing rate.

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa QB QB2
De’Von Achane RB RB1/2
Jaylen Wright RB RB4
Raheem Mostert RB RB4
Tyreek Hill WR WR2
Jaylen Waddle WR Doubtful
Malik Washington WR WR4/5
Jonnu Smith TE TE1

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy stunk it up last week. There’s no denying it, but let’s not act like Purdy has been disappointing or is a stay-away player this week. Purdy has finished as a QB1 in weekly fantasy scoring in five of his last eight starts. Since Week 8, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, 19th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Miami pass defense that has shown some weakness in the last few weeks. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 12th-highest CPOE.

Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB)

Taylor Jr. should lead the San Francisco backfield in touches this week. In Week 14, with Guerendo banged up, in the fourth quarter, Taylor Jr. played 58% of the snaps while logging an 80% snap rate in the red zone. I’m not worried about Ke’Shawn Vaughn and company eating into Taylor Jr.’s workload this week. Taylor Jr.’s yards after contact per attempt (2.14) this season doesn’t inspire a ton of hope for upside, but his career mark in that category (2.70) with 82 career carries does help to ease some fears of two yards and a cloud of dust all day when he gets handed the ball. Taylor Jr. should have 15-17 opportunities this week with a lock on the red zone opportunities. He has a nice rushing matchup to chew on this week. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. With that type of volume, and if he adds a touchdown to the boxscore this week, he’ll likely hover around RB2 status for Week 16.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Well, Jennings got the volume last week (nine targets), but he didn’t put up the production we were hoping for. Since Week 10, he has been the WR23 in fantasy points per game while seeing seven red zone targets. Since Week 10, Miami has utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate (57.3%). Since Week 10, against two high, Jennings has had a 27% target share, 2.52 YPRR, and a 37% first-read share as the clear leader of the 49ers passing attack. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Well, Houston decided to defend Miami last week with a nearly 50/50 split of single high and two high. The Miami passing attack struggled. This week, we could get what I was hoping for last week, which is Hill matched up against a single high defense. Since Week 8, Hill has been the WR23 in fantasy points per game while seeing ten red zone targets. Since Week 10, the 49ers have utilized single high at the third-highest rate (66.9%). Since Week 8, against single high, Hill has had a 27.1% target share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Hill will have to overcome a tough matchup, though, so it’s not all smooth sailing toward a nice Week 16 box score. Since Week 10, the 49ers have held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE4 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished lower than TE7 in weekly scoring since Week 11. Since Week 10, the 49ers have utilized single high at the third-highest rate (66.9%). Since Week 8, against single high, Smith has had a 17.8% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a 19.3% first-read share. Smith will get fed volume again this week, but this is a rough matchup for him. San Francisco has held tight ends to the fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Last week was a rare wretched performance for Tagovailoa. He had only 4.9 yards per attempt while struggling with three picks and only 6.8 fantasy points against Houston. Prior to last week, Tagovailoa had been money in the back with four consecutive QB1 finishes. Since Week 8, he has ranked fifth in passing yards per game, fourth in passing touchdowns, fifth in passer rating, and third in highly accurate throw rate. It looks like Tagovailoa is headed toward another down week. Since Week 10, the 49ers have remained a top-tier pass defense, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt, the fewest passing yards per game, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Isaac Guerendo (RB)

Guerendo has been ruled out for Week 16 (foot/hamstring).

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Samuel has become a must-sit player weekly. He hasn’t finished with double-digit fantasy points or more than 22 receiving yards since Week 10 and has only one red zone target since Week 12. Since Week 10, Miami has utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate (57.3%). Since Week 10, against two high, Samuel has had a 17.6% target share with only 0.82 YPRR and an 18.5% first-read share. The Dolphins’ secondary has been vulnerable, but I don’t think that Samuel can take advantage of it at this juncture. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Waddle has been listed as doubtful, and it’s only a matter of time before he is ruled out.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Pace and play calling notes

  • Since Mike Evans‘ return, Tampa Bay has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the tenth-best neutral rushing rate.
  • Since Week 12, Dallas has been 12th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Baker Mayfield QB QB1
Rachaad White RB RB2
Bucky Irving RB RB1
Sean Tucker RB RB4
Mike Evans WR WR1
Sterling Shepard WR WR4
Jalen McMillan WR WR3
Cade Otton TE Doubtful

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 12, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked third in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game, 11th in passer rating, and 8th in CPOE. Mayfield should post another QB1 week against Dallas. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest CPOE, the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 13th-most passing yards per game. Since Week 10, Dallas has had the fourth-highest pressure rate. Mayfield should be able to navigate pressure without a problem, as he ranks first in yards per attempt and 13th in passer rating when pressured.

Rachaad White (RB)

Last week, White played 51% of the snaps, handling 17 touches and producing 81 total yards (one score) as the RB19 for the week. Since Week 8, White has averaged 13.5 touches and 69.5 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. During this stretch, among 36 qualifying backs, White has ranked 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. White should return RB2 value this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-highest success rate to gap runs (since Week 10, White 51.5% gap).

Bucky Irving (RB)

Well, I was wrong about Irving’s workload last week. I thought he would be more limited than he was. Irving played 44% of the snaps and rattled off 17 touches and 113 total yards. It was his second 100-yard rushing day of the season. Since Week 8, Irving has averaged 15.7 touches and 96.2 total yards as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. During those seven games, among 36 qualifying backs, Irving has ranked 12th in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Irving is in the RB1/2 mix again in Week 16. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-highest success rate to gap runs (since Week 10, Irving 58.8% gap).

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Since Week 12, Shepard has only managed double-digit fantasy points against the wondrous slot matchup that is the Raiders. That is also the only game where he has surpassed 50 receiving yards in the season. Since Week 12, Shepard has had a 17.5% target share, 1.57 YPRR (34.3 receiving yards per game), and a 20% first-read share. Shepard is a viable flex play again this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Since Cooks’ return, he hasn’t surpassed 40 receiving yards in any game. He has had touchdowns in two of his last three games, which have saved his fantasy days. Since Week 13, Cooks has had a 15.6% target share, 0.83 YPRR, a 13.6% first-read share, and three end-zone targets. Cooks has a glorious matchup that puts him on the radar as a deep flex play this week. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

McMillan has flashed the upside over the last two weeks, which many hoped we would have seen after Chris Godwin was sidelined. Since Week 14, McMillan has had a 21.4% target share, 2.68 YPRR (67 receiving yards per game), three touchdowns (one red-zone target), and a 24.3% first-read share. Since Week 10, Dallas has been a neutral matchup for perimeter wide receivers (16th in fantasy points per game allowed) that McMillan can take advantage of.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson has fallen into streamer status only. Last week, his route share dipped to 56.7% while he drew a 13.8% target share and 14.3% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Ferguson has averaged only 2.5 receptions and 27.5 receiving yards per game while drawing zero red-zone targets. Ferguson will need a touchdown to pay off for fantasy with stat lines like that. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Cooper Rush (QB)

Since Week 11, Rush has been the QB20 in fantasy points per game. Across his last five games, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Rush has ranked 16th in passing yards per game, 21st in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. He’s at least been serviceable as a QB2, which is about all we can ask from Rush. Unfortunately, he faces an improving Bucs pass defense. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Since Week 12, Dowdle has been the RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22.8 touches and 127.8 total yards. Since Week 12, among 41 qualifying backs, he has ranked 13th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle runs into a buzzsaw this week, which might break his hot streak of three consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest stuff rate.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton has a knee injury. He didn’t practice until Friday and only had a limited practice. He has been listed as doubtful and will eventually be ruled out for Week 16.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers

Pace and play calling notes

  • Since Week 11, Green Bay has had the slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
  • In Spencer Rattler‘s previous starting stint, New Orleans ranked first in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate. We’ll see if they go back to that approach with the lack of weapons surrounding Rattler now.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Jordan Love QB QB1/2
Josh Jacobs RB RB1
Jayden Reed WR WR4
Romeo Doubs WR WR3/4
Christian Watson WR WR3/4
Dontayvion Wicks WR WR5
Tucker Kraft TE TE1

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jordan Love (QB)

Since Week 11, Green Bay has been more run-heavy, and it has limited Love’s production. In that span, he hasn’t had more than 28 passing attempts in any game and has only two QB1 weekly finishes. On a per-dropback basis, Love has been stellar during this stretch. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Love has ranked 20th in passing yards per game and 28th in passing attempts, but he has also ranked first in yards per attempt and passer rating, ninth in CPOE, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. This could be a good spot for Green Bay to let Love chuck it. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game while ranking 17th in CPOE and 16th in success rate per dropback. During this same span, the Saints have allowed the seventh-most deep passing yards per game and the 12th-highest passer rating to deep passing.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with four outings this season as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Doubs is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Seahawks. It was his second two-score game of the year, which, unfortunately, accounts for all of his receiving scores this season. Doubs could lead the way again this week for Green Bay. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fourth-highest two high rate in the NFL (55%). Since Week 7, against two-high, Doubs has led the team with a 26% TPRR and ranked second with a 25% first-read share while posting 1.96 YPRR. The Packers receivers have all been extremely efficient against two high, so it continues to be a roulette wheel. However, I expect Doubs to be heavily involved this week. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Christian Watson (WR)

Watson has three top-36 weekly finishes this season and has been relegated to mostly downfield work. Since Week 7, 37.8% of his target volume has come via deep targets. Fortunately for Watson, the Saints have been struggling against deep passing, which could lead to a big day for the talented Packer. Since Week 10, the Saints have allowed the seventh-most deep passing yards per game and the 12th-highest passer rating to deep passing. During the same timeframe, New Orleans has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Watson’s range of outcomes is wide, but he could be a home run swing from the flex this week.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Since Week 14, Johnson has had a 12.7% target share, 1.17 YPRR (31 receiving yards per game), and a 17.9% first-read share (second on the team). Across his last four games, he’s had four red zone targets (two scores) and two TE1 performances (TE8, TE3). Johnson is a strong streaming option at tight end this week. Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Kraft is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in red zone targets among tight ends. He has a 12.9% target share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 12% first-read share. Kraft should be a TE1 again this week. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most missed tackles and the most yards after the catch this season. Kraft is a broken tackle and YAC cheat code. Among 43 qualifying tight ends, he ranks first in YAC per reception and missed tackles forced per reception. Kraft should “Juggernaut” this defense. New Orleans has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Spencer Rattler (QB)

In his two full starts this season, Rattler finished as the QB20 and QB25 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Rattler has barely been a replacement-level quarterback, ranking 39th in yards per attempt, 40th in passer rating, and 31st in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. This is a decent spot for Rattler, but I don’t think he’ll play well enough, and he doesn’t have the weapons to take advantage of it. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

Kamara has been ruled out for Week 16.

Kendre Miller (RB)

With Alvin Kamara out, Miller should be the team’s workhorse this week. Last week, in the fourth quarter, with Kamara out, Miller played 88% of the snaps while seeing all the team’s red zone snaps. Jamaal Williams should work in some, but overall, this should be Miller’s backfield this week. Miller only has 28 carries this season, but he has been impressive with his touches, logging a 7.1% explosive run rate, a 36% missed tackle rate, and 2.96 yards after contact per attempt. Mille faces what has been an improved Packer’s run defense. He should see enough volume this week to put him in the RB2 conversation, but with the bad matchup and concerning quarterback play and offensive environment, Miller could be an RB3 this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Jayden Reed (WR)

After a hot start to the season, Reed has cooled off as the WR34 in fantasy points per game. He does have five red zone targets in his last five games, along with three scores, so it’s not like Reed has been a ghost. The touchdowns have had to sustain him, though, because he hasn’t had more than 34 receiving yards in a game since Week 9. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fourth-highest two high rate in the NFL (55%). Since Week 7, against two-high, Reed has ranked second in TPRR (24%), fifth in YPRR (1.32), and first in first-read share (25.4%). Reed could get shut down this week. Since Week 10, New Orleans has managed to keep slot receivers quiet, allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position and the fewest PPR points per target. Reed is just a low-end flex this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR)

Over the last two games, Valdes-Scantling has been the only Saints wide receiver to have more than a 58% route share while drawing a 19% target share with 2.02 YPRR and a 25.6% first-read share. During this span, he has retained an 18.0 aDOT, so it’s not like the Saints have turned him into an intermediate higher-volume weapon. He has still been seeing plenty of volume deeper downfield. Since Week 10, he has still only seen one red zone target, so his chances to score this week are slim unless he breaks off a big play. Valdes-Scantling is a viable flex, though this week, he’s just not a priority. Since Week 10, Green Bay has ranked 17th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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