The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Tennesse Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -3.5, O/U 42.5
• Tennesse Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• In Mason Rudolph‘s three starts earlier this season (Weeks 7-9), Tennessee had the third-slowest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 11, Indy has ranked sixth in neutral pace and fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Richardson has been a QB1 in two of his last four starts (QB5, QB9). This is largely due to his rushing production, as he has averaged nine carries and 46.8 rushing yards while logging four rushing touchdowns. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 30th in yards per attempt, 33rd in passer rating, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and had the third-highest off-target throw rate. All of the improvements in his game that I saw on film against the Jets have seemingly melted away. It has been a rough showing over the last three games for Richardson. He has a wonderful matchup this week, but at this juncture, it’s legitimate to be worried about Richardson, even in good matchups. His rushing production will likely put him somewhere inside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks for the week, but his passing will determine his ceiling for the week. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the highest CPOE.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman opened the week with a DNP (back). I expect him to play this week, but his status needs to be monitored all week. This is just a reminder that he is still clearly not 100% healthy. In the five games Pittman has played with Josh Downs in the lineup and Anthony Richardson under center, he has handled a 22.2% target share and 26.4% first-read share while producing 1.60 YPRR and 43.8 receiving yards per game. In those five games, he has surpassed 60 receiving yards twice and had two red zone targets (zero touchdowns). Pittman could turn in a nice showing this week if his health complies as the Tennessee secondary has been giving to outside receivers in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE)

With Rudolph starting, Okonkwo hasn’t finished higher than TE17 in weekly fantasy scoring. In Weeks 7-9, Okonkwo had an 11.7% target share, 1.28 YPRR (34 receiving yards per game), and a 14.1% first-read share with one red-zone target. Last week, with Rudolph coming in relief of Levis, Okonkwo had a 28.6% target share, 3.08 YPRR, and a 50% first-read share in the second half. If that type of usage and rapport bleeds over to this week, Okonkwo could have a nice game. Indy has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Mason Rudolph (QB)

In Rudolph’s three starts this season, he has finished as the QB20, QB13, and QB15 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 43 qualifying passers, Rudolph ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 32nd in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 30th in highly accurate throw rate. Rudolph is a low-end QB2 facing an improved Colts pass defense. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game and yards per attempt and the sixth-lowest CPOE.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Pollard is banged up right now (ankle). He opened this week with a DNP. I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but he could miss Week 16.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Tony Pollard has an ankle issue and didn’t practice on Wednesday. I’ll update Spears’ outlook on Friday, but he could be the team’s workhorse this week.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

In Rudolph’s three stars this season, Ridley has seen two red zone targets while finishing as the WR47, WR5, and WR30 in weekly scoring. In that sample, he had a 28.8% target share, 86 receiving yards per game (2.41 YPRR), and a 37.2% first-read share. Ridley volume-based fantasy option weekly. By now, we know the quarterback play in Tennessee isn’t great, no matter who is under center. Lower your expectations for Ridley some this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Josh Downs (WR)

In Downs’ five games with Richardson under center this season, he has seen a 20.1% target share and 26.4% first-read share while producing 2.02 YPRR (50 receiving yards per game. Downs has only three red zone targets in this sample and two touchdowns. He faces a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)

With Rudolph starting, Westbrook-Ikhine has had a 12.6% target share, 1.06 YPRR (33 receiving yards per game), and an 11.5% first-read share. In those three games, he saw four red zone targets and scored three touchdowns. Westbrook-Ikhine is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Pierce missed practice on Wednesday (concussion). He might miss Week 16. I’ll update his status on Friday.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets

• LAR -3.5, O/U 46.5
• Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 8, the Rams have had the eighth-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Across their last seven games, the Jets have ranked 11th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Cooper Kupp

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has been the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 14, Rodgers has ranked fourth in passing yards per game, fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. He has been dreadful for most of the season, but this could be the time to ride the hot streak with Rodgers. Since Week 10, the Rams have continued to be a pass defense to not fear, allowing the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, the 11th-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the tenth-most EPA per dropback.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Since Week 8, Stafford has been the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks since Week 8, Stafford ranks 12th in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game and passer rating, and fifth in passing touchdowns. Stafford should carve up what has become an overrated Jets pass defense. Since Week 10, New York has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most yards per attempt, and the second-highest CPOE.

Breece Hall (RB)

Last week, Hall split the backfield work with Isaiah Davis while retaining his lead-back role. He played 48% of the snaps with 11 touches and 51 total yards. The biggest worry for Hall this week is that Davis out-snapped him in the red zone (16.7% vs. 66.7% of the snaps). If Hall is healthier this week, I expect him to reclaim the red zone role in Week 16. Last week, Hall looked like a player operating at less than full strength with zero missed tackles forced and only 0.89 yards after contact per attempt. Overall this season, among 61 qualifying backs, Hall ranks 24th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.

Davante Adams (WR)

Since Week 7, Adams has been the WR7 in fantasy points per game. He has 11 red zone targets across his last eight games as a Jet. Since Week 10, the Rams have utilized two high with 52.3% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 7, against two high, Adams has had a 30.7% target share, 2.33 YPRR, and a 38.5% first-read share. He should lead the way again this week for New York through the air. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

Wilson could get the squeaky wheel treatment this week, but it easily could be another massive Davante Adams game incoming. Since Week 7, Wilson has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing seven red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Rams have utilized two high with 52.3% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 7, against two high, Wilson has taken a backseat to Adams with a 19.7% target share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. The matchup is still conducive to both players posting nice stat lines in Week 16. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Robinson’s hot streak has been extinguished. He hasn’t logged any receiving yards over the last two weeks, and he has seen only two targets. Robinson hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 13 and hasn’t had more than 49 receiving yards in a game since Week 9. This isn’t the type of player you can trust in your flex in the fantasy football playoffs. Sit Robinson.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

• PHI -3.5, O/U 45.5
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 12, Washington has ranked eighth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral rushing rate.
• In their last four games, Philly has been 15th in neutral pace and fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 24th in carries and 22nd in red zone touches. Last week, he played 74% of the snaps (second-highest snap total of the season) while logging 24 touches and 87 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Robinson Jr. ranks 12th in explosive run rate and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 10, Philly has been a middle-of-the-road matchup for backs, ranking 16th in explosive run rate while allowing the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt and the seventh-highest missed tackle rate.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is the WR14 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in receiving yards and second in total touchdowns. I really wanted to put him as a must-start this week, but I know people would ask (queue up the voice of public opinion), “But what about Week 11 when he had only one catch and ten receiving yards?” I don’t think Daniels was anywhere close to healthy in that game, which affected everything Washington did in that game. McLaurin has five 100-yard receiving days and three games with multiple touchdowns. I think he has earned the benefit of the doubt by now. McLaurin has a 21.7% target share, 2.42 YPRR (69.2 receiving yards per game), and a 27.1% first-read share. He ranks 11th in deep targets among wideouts and has five red zone targets in his last six games. The matchup is rough. There’s no doubt about that, but it’s tough to sit a player like McLaurin. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

Smith is the WR23 in fantasy points per game, with three red zone targets in his last three games. Philly unleashed their passing attack last week, and Smith thrived, hauling in 12 targets, 11 receptions, and 109 receiving yards. Smith has had a 24.6% target share, a 32.6% air-yard share, 2.12 YPRR, and a 33.7% first-read share. Since Week 10, Washington has held perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target.

Grant Calcaterra (TE)

In Calcaterra’s five starts, he has had an 11.6% target share, 1.10 YPRR (26.2 receiving yards per game), and an 8.8% first-read share. During those five games, he has only one end-zone target and two red-zone targets. Calcaterra is best left on the bench this week. Washington has allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends, but they have also given up the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game. Calcaterra is a touchdown-or-bust option this week that doesn’t have a huge red zone role in the offense.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz opened this week with a DNP (concussion). I’ll update his status on Friday, but I don’t expect him to play this week.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks

• MIN -3, O/U 43.5
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 11, Minnesota has had the 14th-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-best neutral rushing rate. In their last five games, Seattle has slowed down with the seventh-slowest neutral pace while maintaining a pass-first approach (12th in neutral passing rate).

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

*This is assuming that Charbonnet starts for Seattle again this week.*

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Darnold is the QB8 in fantasy points per game, with four QB1 outings in his last seven games. He ranks fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game and hero throw rate, and fourth in passer rating. Darnold has settled in and is operating well in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He remains a QB1 this week, but he faces an uphill climb against a revitalized Seattle pass defense. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and seventh in red zone touches. Since Week 12, he has averaged 17 touches and 86.8 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Jones ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. This is a sneaky good matchup for Jones. Since Week 10, Seattle has ranked 15th in missed tackle rate, allowing the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt, the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the tenth-highest success rate to gap runs. Jones has a 42.8% gap run rate this season, but I won’t be shocked if Minnesota increases his gap run rate this week. Jones has five games this season where at least 50% of his rushing attempts have come via gap runs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Smith-Njigba is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 11, he has been the WR11 in fantasy points per game with four red zone targets (two scores). Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (65.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Smith-Njigba has had a 19.1% target share, 2.36 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Minnesota has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers this season.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison is the WR20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 9, Addison has been the WR9 in fantasy points per game while seeing 13 red zone targets. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fifth-highest two high rate in the NFL (58.9%). Since Week 9, against two high, Addison has had a 21.4% target share, 1.81 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Since Week 9, Hockenson has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game while logging three TE1 weeks (TE5, TE5, TE10). He has five red zone targets in his last three games and zero scores. Hockenson is due to get into the end zone. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fifth-highest two high rate in the NFL (58.9%). Since Week 9, against two high, Hockenson has had a 14.3% target share, 1.27 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share. Hockenson remains a TE1. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith (knee) participated in the team’s walk-through on Wednesday. I’m hopeful he will play this week, but we need to see his practice reports this week to project his outlook for Week 16 realistically. Check back for my update on Friday.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

In his four starts this season, Charbonnet has averaged 19.5 touches and 108.7 total yards with weekly finishes as the RB8, RB7, RB1, and RB17. Charbonnet ranks tenth in missed tackle rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. He’ll need to lean on his volume and touchdown equity this week, as a horrible matchup is incoming. Since Week 10, Minnesota has held backs in check, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet opened this week with a DNP (oblique). This entire backfield needs to be monitored throughout the week.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Walker (calf) also participated in the team’s walk-through on Wednesday. I currently expect him to sit this week, but there’s some slim hope he plays this week. I’ll update his status on Friday.

DK Metcalf (WR)

Metcalf has hit a cold streak, as he hasn’t finished higher than WR28 in weekly scoring since Week 11. During this five-game stretch, he has only two red zone targets and zero touchdowns. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (65.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Metcalf has had a 12.4% target share, 1.06 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. This is a brutal coverage shell matchup for Metcalf, but the Minnesota secondary has been giving recently to perimeter wide receivers, which could help Metcalf. Since Week 11, Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB