The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -8.5, O/U 42.5
• New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 11, New York has ranked first in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate. Does that make any sense with their putrid quarterback play? Nope, but not much in New York makes sense right now.
• With Atlanta starting Michael Penix Jr. this week, toss out all of the previous weeks for pace and passing rate. Atlanta has leaned on its ground game and slowed things down in the previous few weeks, which is likely what it does to ease the rookie in, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if Penix Jr. comes out firing and Atlanta lets the rookie cook.

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

The most substantial sample we have for Penix Jr. in the NFL has been his 16 preseason dropbacks, where he had a 6.3% big-time throw rate, an 8.6 aDOT, and a 56.3% adjusted completion rate. Even that is too small to really pull anything substantial from. During his final collegiate season, among 144 qualifying FBS passers, Penix Jr. was impressive, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, tenth in big-time throw rate, 27th in aDOT, and 39th in adjusted completion rate. The strong-armed rookie isn’t afraid of chucking it deep, as he led all FBS quarterbacks last year in deep passing attempts. This is a great matchup to ease Penix Jr. into the starting role. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE. Across their last five games, this secondary has continually been gutted by deep passing, allowing the third-highest passer rating and CPOE to deep passing.

Drake London (WR)

London is the WR19 in fantasy points per game, ranking third among wideouts in red zone targets. He has been limited in recent weeks by the quarterback play of Kirk Cousins. He’s only surpassed 75 receiving yards once since Week 11, and Atlanta’s run-heavy approach to hide Cousins has drained his volume. Last week’s game was a perfect example, as Atlanta took all the air out of the offense and sat on their slim lead, praying to squeak out a victory. Since Week 7, New York has had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against single-high, London has had a 24.9% target share, 2.20 YPRR, and a 33.1% first-read share. New York has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers this season. Here’s to hoping the move to Penix Jr. can unlock London’s upside.

Malik Nabers (WR)

I was not high on Nabers’ outlook last week because of the putrid quarterback play he was about to receive. It seemingly didn’t matter as Nabers soaked up 14 targets with ten receptions, 82 receiving yards, and a score. It was Nabers’ first touchdown since Week 3. Nabers has a 32.2% target share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 42.3% first-read share. If New York can feed him catchable targets again this week, I won’t be surprised if he posts a similar stat line. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney has been the WR36 in fantasy points per game while ranking sixth among wide receivers in deep targets. If Penix Jr. is looking to challenge this secondary deep this week, Mooney should be involved. Since Week 7, New York has had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against single-high, Mooney has had a 19.3% target share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 27.2% first-read share. Mooney’s stock has suffered in recent weeks with this offense becoming more conservative, but Penix Jr. could change that. New York has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers this season.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Pitts has become an afterthought in this offense. He has played less than 42% of the snaps in two of his last three games. Since Week 9, he has seen five red zone targets and hasn’t scored while sadly only surpassing 30 receiving yards in a game once. The Giants haven’t been tested by tight ends much this season, facing the fewest targets per game to the position while ranking 15th in yards per reception to the position. The coverage shell matchup is in Pitts’ favor this week. Since Week 7, New York has had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against single-high, Pitts has had only a 12.4% target share and 9.9% first-read share, but he has posted 2.30 YPRR. I’m not telling people to all of a sudden have faith in Pitts, but if he flashed a pulse this week and posted fringe TE1 numbers, I wouldn’t be shocked.

No one in the Giants offense is startable in fantasy outside of Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Malik Nabers.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

NYG QB

I don’t care who New York starts at quarterback this week. None of these basement-level NFL passers should be in your fantasy lineups. Even in Superflex leagues, I won’t do it. My fantasy playoff hopes will not rest on the shoulders of a Giants quarterback.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Since Week 5, Tracy Jr. has been the RB21 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.5 touches and 84.5 total yards per game. Among 61 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. ranks 22nd in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, he has another nasty matchup this week on the ground. Since Week 10, Atlanta has kept backs running into brick walls, allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -14, O/U 46.5
• New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 11, Buffalo has ranked 18th in neutral pace and had the ninth-best neutral rushing rate. During the same timeframe, New England has had the fourth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• James Cook

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Drake Maye (QB)

Maye has been a QB1 in each of his last two starts (QB10, QB11). Since Week 9, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 19th in passing yards per game, 11th in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Maye could make it three consecutive QB1 weeks as he faces off with a Bills pass defense that isn’t scary at all anymore. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, the third-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson is the RB25 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in snap share, 19th in opportunity share, and ninth in red zone touches. Since Week 10, Stevenson has averaged 17.6 touches and 71.6 total yards. Across his last five games, among 51 qualifying backs, Stevenson has been incredibly inefficient, ranking 46th in missed tackle forced per attempt and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. Buffalo could help with those numbers this week. Since Week 10, this run defense has been pitiful, allowing the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Since Week 7, Shakir has been the WR25 in fantasy points per game, drawing eight red zone targets (two scores). During the same time frame, Shakir has had a 23.9% target share, 2.40 YPRR, and a 29.7% first-read share. Since Week 9, New England has had the fifth-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Since Week 7, against single-high, Shakir has had a 22.5% target share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 27.9% first-read share. His metrics have remained stable when compared against his overall numbers. Shakir should have another strong week. Since Week 10, New England has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Last week, Coleman had only a 45.9% route share while drawing a 5.9% target share (two targets) and zero first reads. It’s difficult to trust Coleman this week after looking at that usage, but if you are in a bind this week, there’s an avenue for him to be a solid play. It comes down to how much risk you are willing to absorb this week because Coleman carries a lot. Since Week 9, New England has had the fifth-highest single-high rate (61.8%). This season against single high, Coleman has had an 18% TPRR and a team-leading 2.94 YPRR while also ranking second in FD/RR (0.110). I don’t see Coleman seeing Christian Gonzalez much this week. If Cooper is out there, I expect Gonzalez to follow him. Every corner on New England’s roster without the last name of Gonzalez has been league-average or worse this season. That’s why, despite how good Gonzalez has been, New England has still allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. This is a good opportunity for Buffalo to feature Coleman. The talented rookie will be needed if Buffalo wants to make a deep postseason run. This game could be a confidence builder for him.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Since Week 9, Douglas has only one top 36 weekly finish among wide receivers (WR31). He has seen more red zone usage with three targets inside the 20-yard line over the last two games. Since Week 9, he has had a 16.3% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and an 18.3% first-read share. Douglas is a low-end flex play this week. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Last week, Kincaid returned to the lineup and had a 54.1% route share with a 20.6% target share (seven targets), 2.65 YPRR (53 receiving yards), and a 25% first-read share. Kincaid hasn’t finished as a TE1 since Week 6. He has five red zone targets across his last five games played. Kincaid is a fringe TE1 this week, facing a pass defense that has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Cooper tossed a shutout last week. If you had to depend on him last week in fantasy, I’m sorry. He played only 46% of the snaps and didn’t even draw a target. If I told you that the Bills would post 48 points against the Lions, I don’t know if anyone would have guessed that Cooper would do absolutely nothing, especially coming off his Week 14 performance. Since Week 9, New England has had the fifth-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Since Week 7, against single-high, Cooper has had a 29% TPRR, 1.55 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share (second on the team). Since Week 10, New England has limited boundary receivers to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game. Cooper may get shadowed this week as well by Christian Gonzalez. Last week, Gonzalez followed Marvin Harrison Jr. on 73.3% of his routes, holding him to one catch and 23 receiving yards in his primary coverage.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Since Week 9, Henry has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 finishes. Across his last six games, he has eight red zone targets. Since Week 9, Henry has had a 19.9% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 22.5% first-read share. Last week, Henry’s route share dipped to 60.7%, while Austin Hooper had a 57.1% route share. This is concerning, as well as the matchup this week. If you have other streaming options available and can sit Henry, I’d do it. Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

• DET -6.5, O/U 48
• Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 11, the Lions have had the 13th-slowest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral rushing rate. During the same span, Chicago has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate.

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jared Goff
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams (QB)

The last time Williams faced the Lions, he finished as the QB5 for the week with 256 passing yards, three passing scores, and 39 rushing yards. The Lions’ defense has been gutted since that game by injuries. We’ll see if Williams can bounce back after back-to-back horrible outings. Since Week 11, Williams has been the QB14 in fantasy points per game while ranking 26th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks, 30 qualifying quarterbacks). Since Week 13, Detroit has ranked 11th-best in pressure rate, but they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the most yards per attempt, and the fourth-highest passer rating.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Since Week 11, Swift has been the RB31 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16 touches and 70.4 total yards. Among 44 qualifying backs since Week 11, Swift has ranked 24th in explosive run rate, 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift could enjoy a nice day this week against an injured Detroit defense. Since Week 13, Detroit has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, with top-36 weekly finishes in four of his last five games. Williams has also seen his red zone usage trending upward, with three red zone targets in his last three games. Since Week 4, Chicago has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (60.8%). Against single-high, Williams has seen his target share drop to 15.9% while his YPRR (2.08) and first-read share (19.6%) have remained solid. Williams could pop off this week against a Chicago secondary that has been flawed in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

DJ Moore (WR)

Since Week 11, Moore has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game while seeing six red zone targets. Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single-high at the ninth-highest rate (58.8%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Moore has had a 33.3% target share, 2.32 YPRR, and a 37.9% first-read share. Moore should crush this week. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Since Week 11, Allen has been the WR21 in fantasy points per game with six red zone targets and three top-15 weekly fantasy finishes (WR5, WR4, WR14). Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single-high at the ninth-highest rate (58.8%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Allen has had a 24.7% target share, 1.45 YPRR, and a 31% first-read share. Detroit has had issues defending the slot all season, and I don’t see that changing this week. Allen had 73 receiving yards and two scores the last time he tangled with this secondary. Detroit has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers this season.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rome Odunze (WR)

It’s tough to trust Odunze at this point in the fantasy playoffs. Since Week 11, Odunze has finished as a top 30 wide receiver in weekly scoring only once while seeing a bevy of red zone work (ten red zone targets). Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single-high at the ninth-highest rate (58.8%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Odunze has had an 18.5% target share, 1.13 YPRR, and a 17.2% first-read share. The Lions’ secondary is exploitable at this point, but Moore and Allen also have nice matchups, so it really comes down to the question of “Can Caleb Williams support three pass catchers this week for fantasy?” I’m not sure that he can. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet has been a ghost since Week 11, surpassing 45 receiving yards in a game only once. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 12. Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single-high at the ninth-highest rate (58.8%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Kmet has had a 9.9% target share, 1.14 YPRR, and an 8.6% first-read share. Detroit has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

• ARI -4.5, O/U 47
• Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and play calling notes

• Since Week 12, Arizona has sped things up and moved to more passing, ranking 13th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate. Across the last four weeks, Carolina has ranked tenth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• James Conner
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray is the QB14 in fantasy points per game, and he only has two QB1 finishes across his last six games. Murray’s biggest issue is that he has seen a ton of two-high coverage while his rushing floor has also bottomed out. Since Week 6, Arizona has faced the tenth-most two high coverage in the NFL (50%). Since Week 8, Murray has surpassed 22 rushing yards in a game only once. I don’t know if the rushing will return this week, but Murray finally gets a single high matchup that he can take advantage of. Since Week 12, Carolina has featured single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.7%). Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, against single high, Murray ranks 15th in passer rating, seventh in hero throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest CPOE, and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback.

Bryce Young (QB)

Since Week 12, Young has been the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 27th in passer rating, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Young should post mid-range QB2 numbers again this week against an Arizona secondary that has regressed in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the 11th-highest passer rating, the seventh-highest CPOE, and ranked 15th in yards per attempt.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and sixth in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.9 touches and 85.8 total yards per game. Among 61 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard has managed more than 60 rushing yards in a game only once in his last four games. This could be the bounce-back matchup for Hubbard. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison Jr. has been on a cold streak with all of the recent two high matchups. Since Week 8, he has had three weeks as a WR21 or higher in weekly scoring (WR4, WR14, WR21). The bad thing is in his four other games, he hasn’t finished higher than WR41 in any week. Harrison Jr. has seen solid red zone usage recently with four targets inside the 20-yard line in his last five games. Since Week 12, Carolina has featured single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.7%). Against single high, Harrison Jr. has had a 22.9% target share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 28.2% first-read share. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Thielen’s hot streak came to an end last week despite still leading the team with a 25% target share and 38.9% first-read share. Last week, Thielen played a little more out wide (28.1%) while he still was mostly in the slot (71.9%). Since Week 13, he has had a 25.9% target share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Thielen has three red zone targets in this last three games played. Thielen is a solid flex play again in Week 16. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Last week, Coker returned to the lineup and popped off with a 21.4% target share, 3.67 YPRR (110 receiving yards), and a 22.2% first-read share. He played 50/50 on the perimeter and in the slot. Coker has three red zone targets in his last four games played. Coker is a viable flex play this week, but he’ll have to overcome a rough matchup to post a nice stat line this week, which is possible. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Legette opened this week with a DNP (groin). I’ll update his status on Friday, but he may miss Week 16.

DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB