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We are almost there. I can see it off in the distance. The finish line. Championship week. One more push to get to fantasy football title time. Once we get into the fantasy playoffs, all bets are off. Injuries and wildness happen weekly. Find a four-leaf clover, rub a lucky rabbit’s foot, take a stroll to the nearest wishing well, and make sound lineup decisions with the help of the Primer.
That’s all we can do in Week 16 to try to make it into next week’s title game.
Good luck & welcome to the Week 16 Primer. Enjoy.
DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB
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Fantasy Football Primer
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 9, Denver has ranked sixth in neutral pace and passing rate. Across their last seven games, Los Angeles has been similarly pass-heavy (11th-best in neutral passing rate), but they have moved slowly (sixth-slowest neutral pace).
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Bo Nix (QB)
Nix has been turnover-prone over the last two games, with five interceptions. Hopefully, he can limit the “Ferris Bueller” moments this week. He has had QB1 outings in four of his last seven games as the overall QB10 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in passing yards per game, eighth in passing touchdowns, and 17th in passer rating and CPOE. Nix should sneak in this week with another top-15 fantasy quarterback performance with some upside to reenter the QB1 conversation. The Bolts’ pass defense has hit the skids recently. Since Week 10, they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-highest passer rating.
Audric Estime (RB)
With Jaleel McLaughlin out and Javonte Wiliams looking like a shell of his former self, Sean Payton should lean on Estime this week. I don’t know if it actually happens because we haven’t seen it to this point. Since Week 11, Estime has played 7-23% of the snaps weekly while averaging only 5.3 touches and 17.5 total yards. With his 46 carries, Estime has put up decent per-touch numbers with a 15% missed tackle rate and 3.00 yards after contact per attempt. This is an easy avenue to feature the rookie and jump-start the running game. Let’s hope Payton actually does it, which is a coin flip. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt. I’m not advocating for anyone to plug Estime into a lineup unless you are out of all reasonable options or in a deep league. This is a break glass in case of emergency flex that could pay off in Week 16.
Ladd McConkey (WR)
Since Week 8, McConkey has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game, while he has only seen two red zone targets during this stretch. Since Week 11, Denver has moved toward more two high usage (51.5%). Since Week 8, against two high, McConkey has had a 22.0% target share, 1,83 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. He faces a Denver pass defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers while still holding the position to the third-fewest PPR points per target. With Denver being so nasty against the run, teams have had no choice but to take to the air against them, and they have faced the third-most slot targets since Week 10. I expect Los Angeles will have to do the same this week, which helps McConkey’s ceiling and floor in a tough matchup.
Courtland Sutton (WR)
Sutton is the WR26 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wideouts. He is also 14th in receiving yards and 16th in total touchdowns. The Bolts have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (59%). Since Week 8, against two high, Sutton has had a 21.5% target share, 1.31 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. The volume should still be there for Sutton this week, but it might not be the most efficient outing. The Chargers secondary has been giving recently, so that could help boost Sutton’s numbers this week. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Justin Herbert (QB)
The Bolts offense has been stuck in the mud for the last three games, which has affected Herbert’s production. He hasn’t had more than 14.8 fantasy points in a game since Week 12. Since Week 13, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked 30th in passing yards per game, 24th in yards per attempt, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. It’s difficult to see him as anything more than a mid-range QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Denver has kept quarterbacks in check, giving up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE.
Gus Edwards (RB)
Edwards remains a touchdown-dependent flex play. Since Week 10, he has averaged only 8.4 touches and 30.9 total yards per game. Since Week 10, among 36 qualifying backs, Edwards has ranked 34th in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards is a truly desperate flex play this week. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and logged the highest stuff rate.
Kimani Vidal (RB)
Over the last two weeks, Vidal has taken over as the lead back for Los Angeles, but it hasn’t led to a ton of volume. He has averaged a 60% snap share with 6.5 touches and 29 total yards. Vidal hasn’t posted an explosive run in either game and only had 2.18 yards after contact per attempt, but in this small sample, he has delivered an impressive 27% missed tackle rate. The Bolts need to recommit to running the ball. This isn’t exactly the best matchup to do so, but this offense has been floundering as of late as they don’t have the aerial weapons to truly lean into being a pass-first team. Vidal is a low-end flex play again this week. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and logged the highest stuff rate.
Javonte Williams (RB)
Since Week 11, Williams has played 45-56% of the snaps weekly while averaging 9.1 touches and 29.6 total yards. He has played terribly, with zero explosive runs, zero missed tackles, and only 1.78 yards after contact per attempt. The matchup is glorious this week, but Williams doesn’t have the juice or the volume to capitalize on it. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.
Quentin Johnston (WR)
Since Week 8, Johnston has been the WR43 in fantasy points per game with four outings with at least 12.8 PPR points. He has four red zone targets across his last seven games and five scores. Since Week 11, Denver has moved toward more two high usage (51.5%). Since Week 8, against two high, Johnston has had an 11.7% target share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Johnston is a low-end flex play again for Week 16. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Stone Smartt (TE)
Last week, Smartt assumed the starting role with Will Dissly out, and he’s likely to do so again in Week 16. Against the Bucs, he had a 56.8% route share, a 17.6% target share (six targets), 2.38 YPRR (50 receiving yards), and a 16.7% first-read share. Smartt hasn’t recorded a red zone target this season. Smartt is on the streaming radar again this week, but he’s only on the fringe this week. Denver has been stout against tight ends, giving up the fewest yards per reception and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game.
DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pace and play calling notes
- This game will feature plenty of passing volume. Since Week 11, Kansas City has ranked fifth in neutral pace while Houston has been slower at 21st, but one thing they do agree on is passing the football. During that span, Houston has been fourth in neutral passing rate, and Kansas City has been third.
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Schultz makes the streaming tight-end list this week. Since Week 11, Schultz has had a 15.7% target share, 1.23 YPRR (31.8 receiving yards per game), three red zone targets, and an 18.3% first-read share (second on the team). He has had two TE1 weeks in the last five games (TE11 and TE7), which happen to be his only top-12 finishes of the season. Kansas City has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB)
Mahomes is working through an ankle injury, but so far this week, he has practiced in full. I’m projecting him to play this week. Since Week 9, Mahomes has been the QB10 in fantasy points per game, ranking (among 38 qualifying quarterbacks) ninth in passing yards per game, sixth in passing touchdowns, 17th in passer rating, and 24th in CPOE. Mahome is better viewed as a fringe QB1 or strong QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Since Week 11, Stroud has still struggled as the QB27 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying passers, Stroud has ranked 21st in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. This continues to be a disappointing sophomore season for Stroud. He has been unable to snap out of the funk. I would love to say Stroud has a ceiling performance this week against a pedestrian Chiefs pass defense, but I think we are past the point of hoping for that for Stroud this year. Since Week 10, Kansas City has ranked 16th in passing yards per game and yards per attempt allowed while also giving up the 13th-highest CPOE and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Last week, Pacheco’s snap rate dipped back to 37% as he had 14 touches and 47 total yards. Pacheco’s usage and stat lines look eerily similar to Nick Chubb‘s in the last few weeks. Pacheco’s per-touch efficiency is still in the toilet, with a 9% missed tackle rate and 1.74 yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco looks ready for another snooze-worthy stat line in Week 16. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the second-lowest missed tackle rate, the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Since Week 9, Hopkins has been the WR32 in fantasy points per game while seeing eight red zone targets. During that stretch, Hopkins has had two top-24 fantasy weeks (WR4, WR18). Since Week 9, Hopkins has had a 17.5% target share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. He has a tough matchup this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has managed to hold perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-fewest PPR points per target. Hopkins is a WR3/flex this week.
Xavier Worthy (WR)
Since Week 9, Worthy has had a 14.3% target share with only 1.12 YPRR and a 16.9% first-read share. Since Week 9, Worthy has had two top-24 fantasy scoring weeks (WR20, WR16). He has six red zone targets across his last six games. Worthy is a low-end flex play this week. Since Week 10, Houston has managed to hold perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-fewest PPR points per target.
Tank Dell (WR)
Since Week 11, Dell has only one game with double-digit fantasy points. He has zero red zone targets and has had more than 72 receiving yards in any game. He has finished higher than WR40 in weekly scoring only once in this stretch (WR33). There’s no way anyone should be plugging him into a fantasy lineup this week.
DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pace and play calling notes
- Since Week 11, Baltimore has ranked 11th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral rushing rate. In their last five games, the Steelers have been 15th in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.
Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Zay Flowers (WR)
The last time Flowers faced this secondary, the Steelers didn’t shadow him with Joey Porter Jr., and I don’t see it happening this week. Flowers finished with two receptions and 39 receiving yards (one score) as the WR35 for the week. Flowers is the WR29 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in deep targets among wide receivers. He has four red zone targets in his last six games. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in single-high usage this season (67.4%). Against single high, Flowers has had a 27.5% target share, 2.85 YPRR, and a 31.5% first-read share. Flowers could be headed toward a ceiling game this week. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Mark Andrews (TE)
Andrews is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in touchdowns, eighth in deep targets, and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in single-high usage this season (67.4%). Since Week 5, against single-high, Andrews has had an 11.8% target share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 14.7% first-read share. Pittsburgh ranks 16th in receiving yards per game and 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Andrews remains a TE1 this week.
Pat Freiermuth (TE)
Over the last two games, Freiermuth has finished as the TE5 and TE8 in weekly scoring while spiking two touchdowns and seeing four red zone targets. Since Week 14, he has had a 16.7% target share, 1.79 YPRR (35 receiving yards per game), and a 20% first-read share. Freiermuth should lead the way for Pittsburgh’s passing attack this week. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Russell Wilson (QB)
The loss of George Pickens in the last two games has crushed Wilson’s ceiling, as he has finished as the QB13 and QB25 in weekly scoring, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. I don’t see that changing this week, with Pickens likely out again. Wilson didn’t even succeed against this defense in their last meeting with a QB27 (7.3 fantasy points) finish. Since Week 14, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson has ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 30th in passing yards per game, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Baltimore has also been improving their pass defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE. I expect mid-to-low-end QB2 numbers from Wilson this week.
Najee Harris (RB)
Harris is the RB27 in fantasy points per game, ranking 25th in opportunity share, 14th in weighted opportunities, and eighth in red zone touches. Since Week 7, he has averaged 19 touches and 79.6 total yards. Since Week 7, among 41 qualifying backs, Harris has ranked 26th in explosive run rate and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. It looks like Harris is headed for another quiet week. Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Jaylen Warren (RB)
Since Week 7, Warren has been the RB34 in fantasy points per game, averaging 11.4 touches and 62.1 total yards per game. During the same timeframe, among 41 qualifying backs, Warren looked like his explosive self, ranking ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Warren should be leading the backfield in touches weekly, but Pittsburgh has shown they won’t move away from Harris. Warren is a low-end flex again this week. Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate.
George Pickens (WR)
Pickens hasn’t practiced this week so far (hamstring). He is likely out again this week, but I’ll update his status on Friday.
Rashod Bateman (WR)
Bateman popped up on the injury report on Wednesday with a foot issue. He was limited in practice. Mid-week injuries always scare me, especially of the foot variety with a player like Bateman, who has a long history of foot ailments. I’ll update his status on Friday.
Calvin Austin (WR)
Over the last two games, Austin has had a 70.9% route share, a 16.7% target share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 23.3% first-read share. He has one red zone target during that span while finishing as the WR33 last week. Austin is a deep league flex only this week. Since Week 10, Baltimore has held slot receivers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game.
DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pace and play calling notes
- With a brand new quarterback starting in Cleveland, toss the previous few weeks with Jameis Winston in the trash. I doubt the Browns will be pace-up and pass-happy with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, but I could be wrong.
- Since Week 11, Cincy has ranked 14th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jerome Ford (RB)
Last week, Ford turned his nine touches in 104 total yards as the RB9 for the week. Among 61 qualifying backs this season, Ford ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Ford should operate as a strong RB2/3 this week. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-most rushing yards per game, and the 12th-most rushing touchdowns.
Jerry Jeudy (WR)
Since Week 8, Jeudy has been the WR3 in fantasy points per game, crushing souls along the way. The downgrade from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week is gut-wrenching in the fantasy playoffs. Temper your expectations, obviously, as Jeudy becomes a bet on volume. Since Week 10, Cincy has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (59.8%). Since Week 8, against two high, Jeudy has had a 23.2% target share, 2.24 YPRR, and a 26.9% first-read share. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB)
Last year, in his three starts, Thompson-Robinson never finished higher than QB22 in weekly scoring. Last year, among 48 qualifying passers, he ranked dead last in yards per attempt and passer rating and 45th in CPOE. There’s not much hope for Thompson-Robinson this week outside of Cincy’s wretched defense, which may possibly elevate his level of play. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the third-most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest passer rating.
Elijah Moore (WR)
With Thompson-Robinson starting this week, Moore has dropped into low-end flex territory. It’s tough to get excited to play anyone in this passing attack. Since Week 8, Moore has had three top-24 weekly scoring outings (WR22, WR15, WR14). During that stretch, he has only two red zone targets (none since Week 13). Since Week 10, Cincy has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (59.8%). Since Week 8, against two high, Moore has had a 16.8% target share, 1.06 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. Cincy has been giving up production to slot receivers, but I don’t know if Moore has the necessary quarterback play to do anything about it this week. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Cedric Tillman (WR)
Tillman remains a limited participant in practice and in the concussion protocol. He isn’t a lock to return this week. I’ll update his status on Friday.
David Njoku (TE)
Njoku opened this week (hamstring) with a DNP. I’ll update his status on Friday, but he could easily be out again this week.
DEN vs. LAC | HOU vs. KC | PIT vs. BAL | CLE vs. CIN | NYG vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | ARI vs. CAR | TEN vs. IND | LAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. WAS | MIN vs. SEA | JAC vs. LV | SF vs. MIA | TB vs. DAL | NO vs. GB
