The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

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Welcome. Welcome. Welcome.

“We are in the end game now.”

The Fantasy Football playoffs. There is no tomorrow. Win or go home. The entire season has been one long pregaming session in preparation for this party. I won’t bore you with some motivation, brouhaha. We have lineups to set. Leagues to sweat. Trophies to win.

Welcome to the Week 15 Primer. Enjoy.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

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Fantasy Football Primer

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 8, the Rams have ranked 21st in neutral pace with the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • With Brock Purdy back, the 49ers have had the slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Matthew Stafford QB QB1/2
Kyren Williams RB RB1
Blake Corum RB RB4
Puka Nacua WR WR1
Cooper Kupp WR WR1/2
Demarcus Robinson WR WR4
Tutu Atwell WR WR6
Davis Allen TE TE3

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Brock Purdy QB QB1
Patrick Taylor Jr. RB RB3
Isaac Guerendo RB RB2
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR WR3
Jauan Jennings WR WR1/2
Ricky Pearsall WR WR6
George Kittle TE TE1

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

After last week’s massive game, Purdy is now the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt, tenth in passing yards per game, and 12th in passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. He should have another nice stat line this week. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the ninth-most passing yards per game, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Stafford has been rejuvenated since Week 8, and his top receivers are healthy and rocking. Since Week Week 8, Stafford has been the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford has ranked tenth in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns (tied), sixth in passer rating, and fourth in hero throw rate. He has been on a tear. If Stafford can carve up the Bills’ pass defense, he should be able to have a strong outing against the 49ers. Since Week 9, San Francisco has allowed the ninth-highest passer rating and CPOE and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback.

Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB)

If Isaac Guerendo is active, expect Taylor Jr. to help carry the load some. If Guerendo is out, Taylor Jr. should be the team’s workhorse. In the fourth quarter of last week’s game, Taylor Jr. took the lead with a 58% snap rate and an 80% snap rate in the red zone. Taylor Jr. finished with seven touches and 25 total yards. In limited action (only 14 carries), Taylor Jr. has had a 21% missed tackle rate with a mediocre 1.93 yards after contact per attempt. If Guerendo is out, he should still see 15-20 touches this week with a lock on the goal line work. That’s good enough for RB2 status. If Guerendo is active, Taylor Jr. is only a deep league (low-end) flex play. Since Week 9, Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Isaac Guerendo (RB)

Guerendo has been listed as questionable for Week 15. He is dealing with a foot injury that held him out of practice until Wednesday, when he practiced on a limited basis. If you have Guerendo, I hope you picked up Patrick Taylor Jr. as a backup plan. Last week, before leaving with the foot injury, Guerendo rolled up 17 touches and 128 total yards (one score) as the RB2 for the week. In the first half of the game, he played 70% of the snaps while seeing an 88% snap rate in the red zone. Guerendo has been impressive on a per-touch basis, with an 8.8% explosive run rate and a 21% missed tackle rate. If he does play, I do expect him to share the load more with Taylor Jr. Since Week 9, Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 10, Jennings has been the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 10, he has five red zone targets and has eclipsed 16 fantasy points in three games. This should be another strong game from Jennings. The Rams have utilized single high with 55.3% of their defensive snaps this season. Against single-high, since Week 10, Jennings has had a 30% target share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 33.9% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Since Week 8, Robinson has been the WR49 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 10.8% target share with 1.26 YPRR (33.6 receiving yards per game) and an 11.3% first-read share. During these seven games, he is tied for the team lead with seven end-zone targets. He has three WR3 or higher weekly finishes in this span. Robinson is a low-end flex (touchdown or bust) this week. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Samuel has struggled this season, and I don’t know if that will change in Week 15. He hasn’t managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 10. He hasn’t surpassed 80 receiving yards in a game since Week 6. His last red zone target came in Week 11. The Rams have utilized single high with 55.3% of their defensive snaps this season. Against single-high, since Week 10, Samuel has had a 21.3% target share, only 1.35 YPRR, and a 23.7% first-read share. The Rams’ secondary has been in shambles, but in a similar fashion to last week. I don’t know if Samuel can take advantage of it. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Last week, he even saw an uptick in his rushing usage with five attempts, but he only managed 13 yards on the ground. If you’re desperate and have to flex him, I get it, but in most instances, I’m sitting Samuel.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans

Pace and playcalling notes

  • With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, Miami has had the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking sixth in neutral passing rate.
  • Since Week 11, Houston has ranked 22nd in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral passing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa QB QB1/2
De’Von Achane RB RB1
Jaylen Wright RB RB3
Raheem Mostert RB RB4
Tyreek Hill WR WR1
Jaylen Waddle WR WR3
Jonnu Smith TE TE1

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

C.J. Stroud QB QB2
Joe Mixon RB RB1
Dameon Pierce RB RB4
Nico Collins WR WR1
Tank Dell WR WR4
John Metchie WR WR6
Dalton Schultz TE TE2

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tagovailoa has been dealing. Since his return in Week 8, he has been the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked fourth in passing touchdowns, second in passer rating, seventh in CPOE, and second in highly accurate throw rate. Tagovailoa should have another nice day in Week 15. Since Week 9, Houston’s pass defense has had some issues, allowing the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-most passing yards per game.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

Stroud has had a challenging year. He has only three QB1 outings this season. Even in the three games since Nico Collins‘ return, Stroud has finished outside the top 24 quarterbacks in weekly fantasy scoring twice (QB26, QB25). Since Week 11, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 28th in CPOE, and he’s had the second-highest off-target rate. We’ll see if Stroud can break out of the funk this week. Miami has been fielding a strong pass defense, but it has faltered in recent weeks. Since Week 9, they have allowed the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, the seventh-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the fourth-most passing yards per game. The best thing for Stroud behind his Swiss cheese offensive line is that during this span, Miami has ranked 16th in pressure rate and 15th in pressure rate over expectation.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, Hill has been the WR17 in fantasy, drawing a 20.5% target share with 2.13 YPRR and a 23.4% first-read share. Hill has nine red zone targets in this stretch. He finally had a classic “Tyreek Hill” performance last week, and he could stack another one this week. Houston has two massive outlier games this season (Weeks 1 & 11) where they utilized two high with at least 82.3% of their defensive snaps. I can’t rule out that they deploy this approach in Week 15, but if they don’t and stick to the formula they have used in their 11 other games, Hill should cook this week. In the other 11 games they have had this season, they have utilized single-high with 60.9% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Hill has had a 27.8% target share with 3.15 YPRR and a 30.6% first-read share. Hill will have to contend with a secondary that, since Week 9, has held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Smith has been on fire. He has pulled his season-long status up to TE6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game, seeing an 18.6% target share with 2.35 YPRR and a 22.8% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets across his last seven games played. This week, Smith faces a Houston defense that ranks 15th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends while giving up the tenth-most receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Since Week 8, Waddles has had only two games where he’s had at least 12 fantasy points and 60 receiving yards (Weeks 12 & 14). It has been a rough season for Waddle, and really not because he has been bad, but because Miami hasn’t featured him in the passing game. That distinction has gone to Jonnu Smith. Across his last seven games, he has only two red zone targets. That’s blasphemous for a player with Waddle’s talent. Houston has two massive outlier games this season (Weeks 1 & 11) where they utilized two high with at least 82.3% of their defensive snaps. I can’t rule out that they deploy this approach in Week 15, but I lean that they will stick to the formula they have used in their 11 other games. In the other 11 games they have had this season, they have utilized single-high with 60.9% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Waddle has had a 13% target share and 15.3% first-read share despite still producing 2.02 YPRR and 0.126 FD/RR. Waddle remains a volatile WR3/flex play for Week 15. Since Week 9, Houston has held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target.

Tank Dell (WR)

C.J. Stroud‘s decline in play has hurt all of the options in this offense this season outside of Nico Collins and Joe Mixon. Yes, the offensive line has played a role in the decline, but Stroud has also had his misfires that can’t be blamed on the line. Since Nico Collins‘ return, Dell hasn’t surpassed 72 receiving yards or 10.2 fantasy points in any game. He hasn’t seen a single red zone target or finished higher than WR33 in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 11, Dell has had a 14.9% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 16.2% first-read share. Sit Dell this week. Since Week 9, Miami ranks 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while holding the position to 14th-fewest PPR points per target.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Since Week 11, Schultz has had a 15.8% target share, 1.46 YPRR, and a 17.6% first-read share. He has also seen a red zone in each of his last three games. Schultz has only two TE1 finishes this season (TE11, TE7), but they have come in the last four games. That hot streak will likely get snapped this week. Miami has allowed the 12th-fewest receiving touchdowns per game and the 11th-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns

Pace and playcalling notes

  • With Jameis Winston under center, Cleveland has ranked third in neutral pace and neutral passing rate. During the same stretch of games, the Chiefs have been ninth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Patrick Mahomes II QB QB1
Isiah Pacheco RB RB2/3
Kareem Hunt RB RB4
DeAndre Hopkins WR WR2
Xavier Worthy WR WR3
Justin Watson WR WR6
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR WR6
Travis Kelce TE TE1

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Jameis Winston QB QB1/2
Nick Chubb RB RB3
Jerome Ford RB RB4
Cedric Tillman WR TBD
Jerry Jeudy WR WR2
Elijah Moore WR WR3
David Njoku TE TE1

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Mahomes is the QB14 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 performances in three of his last six games. Since Week 9, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes ranks ninth in passing yards per game, fourth in passing touchdowns, 13th in passer rating, and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. He should flirt with low-end QB1 value again this week. Since Week 9, Cleveland has been a shell of their former selves as a pass defense with the second-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the 13th-highest CPOE allowed.

Jameis Winston (QB)

Winston could put up another juicy stat line this week against what has become a mediocre Chiefs’ pass defense. Winston has been a QB1 in four of his six starts this season (QB10, QB7, QB1, QB12). Since Week 8, among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Winston ranks second in passing yards per game, eighth in passing touchdowns, sixth in aDOT, and fourth in passing attempts. He should carve up the Chiefs’ secondary like Kansas City barbeque this week. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

The ramp-up for Pacheco has begun. Last week, he played 46% of the snaps, finishing with 16 touches and 61 total yards. He had 70% of the running back rushing attempts while splitting the route share nearly evenly with the other backs (26.2%). He had 50% of the running back red zone rushing attempts (one). On a per-touch basis, Pacheco still looks like a player working his way back to form. Last week, he didn’t have an explosive run, managing a disappointing 7% missed tackle rate and 2.21 yards after contact per attempt. He has a wonderful matchup this week that could help boost those efficiency numbers. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Since Week 9, Hopkins has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 57.8% route share, a 17.6% target share, and 22.4% first-read share while producing 54.7 receiving yards per game and 2.06 YPRR. Hopkins has six red-zone targets in his last six games played. The Browns have reverted to their single-high ways. They have the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL (63.9%). Since Week 9, against single-high, Hopkins has had a 21.5% target share, 2.73 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. I won’t be surprised if Hopkins blows up this week. Since Week 9, Hopkins has led the team in deep targets. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the most deep passing yards per game and the ninth-highest CPOE to deep passing.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since Week 9, Worthy has only one game as a top 36 fantasy wide receiver (WR20). He does have three red zone targets in his last six games. There’s an avenue for Worthy to walk away from Week 15 with a nice game. The Browns have the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL (63.9%). Since Week 9, against single-high, Worthy has had a 14.6% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 13.6% first-read share. While none of those numbers jump off the page, during that stretch of games, Worthy has ranked second on the team in deep targets. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the most deep passing yards per game and the ninth-highest CPOE to deep passing. If you need some upside at the flex position this week, Worthy could be your guy. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Since Week 8, Jeudy has been the WR2 in fantasy points per game. Let that soak in for a second. Since Week 8, Jeudy has had a 20.8% target share, 2.64 YPRR (113 receiving yards per game), and a 23.5% first-read share. The only hope in his usage has been his two red zone targets since Week 8. The Chiefs have the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.6%). Since Week 8, against two high, Jeudy has seen his target share dip slightly to 19.1% with 2.15 YPRR and a 21.6% first-read share (first on the team). These are still strong numbers despite the dip compared to his overall usage. Jeudy should take advantage of a Chiefs secondary that has faltered recently. Since Week 9, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Elijah Moore (WR)

Since Week 8, Moore has been the WR43 in fantasy points per game, but he has had three outings as a top 24 wide receiver in weekly scoring (WR22, WR14, WR15). Across his last six games, he’s had a 19.2% target share, 1.58 YPRR, and a 21.9% first-read share. Since Week 8, he’s had two red zone targets. The Chiefs have the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.6%). Since Week 8, against two high, Moore has seen his target share drop to 16.8% with 1.26 YPRR and a 20.5% first-read share. These numbers aren’t encouraging, but the Chiefs have been unable to stop slot receivers. Since Week 9, Kansas City has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

David Njoku (TE)

Since Week 8, Njoku has been the TE6 in fantasy points per game. He has five red zone targets in his last three games. With Winston tossing him the rock, he’s had a 21.2% target share (leads the team), 1.17 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Since Week 8, he has also led the team with seven end-zone targets. Njoku should smash this week. Across the last five weeks, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Nick Chubb (RB)

Chubb is a touchdown-dependent RB3. In five of his seven games played, he has played only 30-36% of the snaps. Chubb has averaged 14 touches and 46 total yards. He’s had three games as an RB3 or higher in weekly scoring (RB26, RB20, RB8). That RB8 performance came against the Steelers when he managed two scores, which pushed him up the weekly leaderboard. Chubbs still looks like a shell of his former self, with only a 10% missed tackle rate and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 9, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Hunt has fallen into handcuff status only. Last week, he played only 29% of the snaps with six touches and 29 total yards. Without the overwhelming volume he was seeing without Pacheco in the lineup, his fantasy value has plummeted.

Cedric Tillman (WR)

Tillman managed a limited practice on Wednesday (concussion). I’ll update his status on Friday. Hopefully, he will be back this week.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 12, Dallas has ranked 11th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.
  • In their last three games, Carolina has been sixth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Cooper Rush QB QB2
Rico Dowdle RB RB2
Ezekiel Elliott RB RB4
CeeDee Lamb WR WR1
Jalen Tolbert WR WR5
Brandin Cooks WR WR5
Jonathan Mingo WR WR6
Jake Ferguson TE TE2

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bryce Young QB QB2
Chuba Hubbard RB RB2
Xavier Legette WR WR4
David Moore WR WR5
Adam Thielen WR WR2/3
Jalen Coker WR WR6
Ja’Tavion Sanders TE TE2

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bryce Young (QB)

Young has flashed a pulse in recent weeks. It resulted in a QB8 finish in Week 13, but outside of that, he’s still living in QB2 land for fantasy. Since Week 12, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 27th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 16th in CPOE, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, and third in hero throw rate. He has put some impressive throws on tape. The consistency still needs to improve, but it has been nice to see. Young could have another nice game this week. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest CPOE.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in snap share, opportunity share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and 12th in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.2 touches and 88.6 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 15th in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard should have another nice game this week as Carolina’s bellcow. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the ninth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 66% zone).

Rico Dowdle (RB)

I just don’t get it. Where the hell was this type of usage for Dowdle earlier this year? Really? Did we really need to see slow-as-molasses Ezekiel Elliott for most of the season gumming up the works for this Dallas run game? Ok, rant over. Since Week 12, Dowdle has played at least 61% of the snaps, averaging 22 touches and 120.7 total yards. Since Week 12, Dowdle has been the RB11 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 9, among 50 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle should run wild again in Week 15. Since Week 9, Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Since Week 12, Legette has had an 18.3% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share. Legette has had three red zone targets during this stretch, but sadly, he hasn’t had more than 56 receiving yards in any game and hasn’t finished higher than WR38 in weekly fantasy scoring. Legette has a nice matchup this week, but it’s worth questioning whether he can take advantage of it. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Over the last two weeks, Thielen has had a 26.3% target share, a 32.1% air-yard share, 2.72 YPRR, and a 31.5% first-read share. He has two end zone targets in his last two games as he has finished as the WR6 and WR17 in weekly fantasy scoring. Thielen should have another prosperous game in Week 15. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Last week, Ferguson had a 74.3% route share with a 19.4% target share, 1.23 YPRR (32 receiving yards), and a 27.8% first-read share. In Ferguson’s two starts with Rush under center, he hasn’t finished higher than TE21 in weekly scoring or seen a red zone target. The matchup this week is nice for Ferguson, but Rush could easily weigh him down again in Week 15. Cincy has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Cooper Rush (QB)

Since Week 11, Rush has finished higher than QB15 in weekly fantasy scoring only once (QB10). Since Week 11, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Rush has ranked 18th in passing yards per game, 31st in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Carolina pass defense that has been on the rise. Since Week 9, Carolina has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE.

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Over the last two games with Cooper Rush, Cooks has had a 14.9% target share, 0.44 YPRR, and a 13.3% first-read share. Touchdowns have saved his day in each game, as Rush hasn’t been looking his way. He has led the team in this two-game sample with three end-zone targets. Cooks’ touchdown luck likely ends this week. Since Week 9, Carolina has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV