New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -6, O/U 46
• New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, New England has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the 14th-best neutral passing rate. Across their last five games, Arizona has had the 13th-slowest neutral pace and the tenth-best neutral passing rate.

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

James Conner (RB)

Conner is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and 12th in red zone touches. He ranks 13th in rushing yards, sixth in receiving yards, and 20th in yards per touch among running backs. Conner has averaged 18.3 touches and 92 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Conner ranks 17th in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and second in missed tackles forced per attempt. At first glance, the Patriots have fielded a strong defense over the last few weeks, but if we look deeper, there’s a nice lane for Conner to produce in Week 15. 45.2% of Conner’s runs have come via duo, counter, and draw rushing plays. The Patriots against these run concepts have had the third-lowest stuff rate while ranking 17th in yards per carry and giving up the second-highest success rate. Conner also benefits from running behind an offensive line that, since Week 9, has ranked second behind only Philly in adjusted yards before contact per attempt.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

In his last game before the bye, Stevenson resumed his workhorse role with 78% of the snaps, 21 touches, and 94 total yards. Overall, he has averaged 17.6 touches and 67.5 total yards per game. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the 12th-most yards before contact per attempt, the second-most yards per carry to gap runs, and the fifth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Stevenson 57.2% gap).

DeMario Douglas (WR)

In the six full games Douglas has played with Maye, he has finished as a top 36 wide receiver in weekly scoring twice (WR8, WR31). In those games, Douglas has had an 18% target share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 21.4% first-read share while seeing three red zone targets. Douglas hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6. Since Week 10, Arizona has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (63.9%). In those six games, against two high, Douglas has seen his target share increase to 20% while his first-read share has increased to 23.7%, and his YPRR has remained stable at 1.85. This is quietly a good spot for Douglas. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Hunter Henry (TE)

In Maye’s seven full starts, Henry has finished as a TE1 five times. In those games, he has drawn nine red zone targets. Since Week 10, Arizona has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (63.9%). In those seven games, against two high, Henry has had an 18.2% target share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. Henry should see plenty of volume and red zone usage this week, which could help him overcome a tough matchup. Across their last five games, Arizona has allowed the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

In the fantasy playoffs, I’m not messing around with the New England wide receiver roulette wheel behind DeMario Douglas. None of those receivers should be trusted in fantasy lineups this week.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray’s outlook this week is murky at best. This comes down to what I think New England will do with their coverage structure and how the Patriots’ pass defense will hold up outside of Christian Gonzalez. New England has utilized two high with at least 50% of their defensive snaps six times this season and in two of their last four games. If you’ve been reading the Primer all season, you already know that Murray has been a mediocre quarterback against two high this season. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray has ranked 15th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, 31st in hero throw rate, and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback against two high. If Murray finishes as a QB1 this week, he’ll need his rushing to bail him out, which is hard to trust. Since Week 8, he has surpassed 21 rushing yards in a game only once. Those are all of the reasons to worry about Murray. The glass-half-full vision for his Week 15 outlook leans heavily upon the fact that New England has been a putrid pass defense all year outside of Christian Gonzalez. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns while also giving up the 12th-highest CPOE and success rate per dropback. Murray’s range of outcomes is wide this week.

Drake Maye (QB)

In his seven full starts this season, Maye has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring three times (QB10, QB7, QB10). Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 19th in CPOE, and 14th in highly accurate throw rate. In his full starts, Maye has averaged 4.7 rushing attempts and 41 rushing yards. He takes on a much improved Arizona pass defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passer rating, and the 14th-lowest CPOE.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

I’m not sure if Christian Gonzalez will shadow Harrison Jr. this week. He should, but New England hasn’t been letting Gonzalez follow the opposing top receiver. Since Week 10, Gonzalez has only followed Tyreek Hill on at least 50% of his routes (54.5%). Harrison might still have another down week even if he only sees Gonzalez during 30-40% of his routes. New England has utilized two high with at least 50% of their defensive snaps six times this season and in two of their last four games. Not only has Kyler Murray struggled against two high, but Harrison Jr. has as well. Against two high, Harrison Jr. has had an 18.8% target share with 1.46 YPRR and a 26.5% first-read share. Since Week 9, New England has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -2.5, O/U 54.5
• Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 11, Buffalo has ranked 21st in neutral pace and 15th in neutral rushing rate. Across their last four games, Detroit has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• David Montogmery
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff continues to hum along as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt, fifth in passing touchdowns, ninth in CPOE, and eighth in highly accurate throw rate. Goff should post another strong QB1 game this week against a faltering Buffalo Bills’ pass defense. The Bills’ pass defense has taken a step back over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, they have allowed the highest success rate per dropback while also giving up the ninth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest passer rating.

James Cook (RB)

Cook is the RB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 25th in weighted opportunities, 16th in red zone touches, and 24th in opportunity share. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. He has averaged 15.3 touches and 77.3 total yards. Unfortunately, Cook could have another down game this week against what has remained a strong Lions’ run defense. Since Week 9, they have held backs in check, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Since Week 7, Shakir has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 24.4% target share and 29.7% first-read share, producing 69.4 receiving yards per game and 2.49 YPRR. He has six red zone targets across his last seven games. Since Week 6, Detroit has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (57.3%). Since Week 7, against single high, Shakir has had a 22.3% target share, 2.42 YPRR, and a 27.5% first-read share. His market share and efficiency haven’t really changed, as he has retained strong numbers across the board. Shakir should crush this week. This season, Detroit has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams is the WR37 in fantasy points per game. He has 11 deep targets and seven red zone targets in 11 games played. Williams has four top-24 wide receiver weeks this season. Overall, Williams has had a 17.9% target share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. The Bills have had a radical shift in their coverage structure over the last two weeks. We’ll see if it holds this week, but since Week 13, Buffalo has had the sixth-highest single-high rate (65.4%). Against single high, Williams has had a 15.8% target share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. He has maintained his efficiency, but he has seen a decent drop in his volume market share. Williams can still walk away with a nice game this week, but I’m not predicting a smash game. The Bills have been giving to perimeter wide receivers in recent weeks, so maybe I’ll be wrong. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Last week, Cooper only had a 58.5% route share, but his usage exploded. He had a 37.8% target share, a 56% air-yard share, 3.96 YPRR, and a 44% first-read share. He finished with six receptions and 95 receiving yards as the WR24 for the week. Cooper didn’t see any red-zone targets or end-zone targets last week. This week’s matchup will be tougher. If this game ends up in a shootout or the Bills struggle to run the (highly likely), Cooper should see plenty of volume, which could offset the rough matchup. Since Week 9, Detroit has ranked 16th in receiving yards allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also holding the position to the fifth-fewest PPR points per target.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman opened this week with a full practice (wrist). I’ll update his status on Friday. Hopefully, he will return this week.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Kincaid has missed the last three games with a knee injury. He opened this week with a full practice. I’ll update his status on Friday. Hopefully, he will return this week.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

LaPorta has helped his season-long stats recently and is now the TE14 in fantasy points per game. Across the last nine games, LaPorta has finished as a TE1 six times. In that nine-game stretch, he has ten red zone targets. Since Week 4, LaPorta has had a 15.4% target share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 16.6% first-read share. This will be a tough week for LaPota, though. Buffalo has been a brutal matchup for tight ends for the last few seasons. Buffalo has allowed the lowest yards per reception, the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -4, O/U 44
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Richardson has been back under center, the Colts have ranked eighth in neutral pace and had the fourth-best neutral rushing rate. In their last three games, Bo Nix has directed an offense that has ranked seventh in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Nix is the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 15th in yards per attempt, eighth-best in passing touchdowns and fantasy points per dropback, tenth in passer rating, and 20th in highly accurate throw rate. Nix should have another decent QB1 outing in Week 15. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the tenth-most passing yards per game, and the tenth-highest CPOE.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Since his return to the starting lineup in Week 11, Richardson has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in two of those three games (QB5, QB9). Since Week 11, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Richardson has still had his warts, ranking 24th in yards per attempt, 33rd in passer rating, ninth-highest in turnover-worthy throw rate, and tenth-highest in off-target rate. He has averaged 9.7 rushing attempts and 47 rushing yards. That doesn’t tell the entire story, though. He also ranks 11th in CPOE, seventh in hero throw rate, and second in fantasy points per dropback. He has also had the lowest pressure-to-sack rate while dealing with the highest drop rate and the most passing yards lost to drops (138). This week, he faces a Denver pass defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, and the eighth-most passing touchdowns. Denver has also struggled to defend deep passing, so expect Indy to dial up some shots downfield this week. Since Week 9, Denver has been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the deep ball, allowing the sixth-most deep passing yards per game, the highest passer rating to deep passing, and the second-highest CPOE to deep passing.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)

I’ll start this off by saying that it’s difficult (impossible) to trust any Denver running back in fantasy at this point. With that said, if you are in desperate need of a flex play this week and you’re out of options, McLaughlin makes some sense. Over the last two games, he has played 29-36% of the snaps while averaging 11 touches and 64 rushing yards. In that small sample, he has proven why he has had the “hot hand” with a 14.3% explosive run rate and 24% missed tackle rate. Since Week 7, among 39 qualifying backs, he has ranked second in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 9, Indy has still bled out production to backs, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the ninth-highest missed tackle rate.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Since Week 8, Sutton has been the WR5 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 26.8% target share, a 44.4% air-yard share, and a 32% first-read share, producing 3.09 YPRR and 94.8 receiving yards per game. He has nine red zone targets across his last six games and hasn’t finished lower than WR26 in weekly scoring in that span. Since Week 12, Indy has reverted to featuring single high coverage at the fifth-highest rate (67.1%). Since Week 8, against single high, Sutton’s target share has ballooned to 30% with a staggering 4.30 YPRR and a 38.4% first-read share. Sutton should go off again this week. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also ranking 15th in fantasy points per game given up to the position.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Since Richardson’s return to the starting job, Pierce has still seen 50% of his target volume on downfield targets (20-plus yards downfield), so the correlation still exists. Consider Pierce as a flex against teams that struggle to defend deep passing. Since Week 9, Denver has been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the deep ball, allowing the sixth-most deep passing yards per game, the highest passer rating to deep passing, and the second-highest CPOE to deep passing. Overall, Pierce, among wide receivers, ranks second in deep targets and third in deep receiving yards. Pierce could easily pay off this week if he and Richardson can hook up for 1-2 explosive plays downfield.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jonathan Taylor (RB)

Taylor is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in snap share, 24th in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. Taylor has averaged 20 touches and 92.2 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Taylor ranks 18th in explosive run rate and 54th in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor will be to claw for every single yard this week. Since Week 9, Denver has held backs to the fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest yards per carry to zone runs, and the lowest rushing success rate with zone runs (Taylor 56.5% zone).

Javonte Williams (RB)

There’s no way to play Williams with any shred of confidence this week. In his last four games, he had less than six touches in two games while never seeing more than 13 touches in any game. He has only eclipsed double-digit fantasy points twice in his last six games. I know the matchup is great this week, but if he scores less than three fantasy points, as he has done in two of his last four games, you’ll be kicking yourself as you’re bounced from the fantasy playoffs.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

I expect Patrick Surtain to erase Pittman Jr. this week. Since Week 11, Pittman Jr. has had a 25.6% target share, 2.63 YPRR, and a 29.2% first-read share. Since Week 11, he has been the WR38 in fantasy points per game while seeing three red zone targets. Pittman has run 74% of his routes on the perimeter during this span, which should make it easy for Surtain to follow him on 70% or more of his routes this week. Surtain has followed receivers on at least 60% of their routes six times this season, and he has yet to allow more than 53 receiving yards or a touchdown in his primary coverage.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs had a limited practice on Wednesday (shoulder). I’ll update his outlook on Friday. I hope he will be back this week, but it’s far from a sure thing.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -3, O/U 45.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Mike Evans back, Tampa Bay has had the 13th-slowest neutral pace and the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 12, Los Angeles has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the 11th-best neutral passing rate.

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Mike Evans

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert has finished as a QB1 in five of his last seven games. Since Week 8, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked 21st in passing yards per game, 11th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing touchdowns, and 12th in passer rating. He has had at least 29 rushing yards in four games. Herbert faces a Bucs pass defense that has given up some monster days to quarterbacks this season but has recently played better. Since Week 9, the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback while also ranking 15th in passer rating and yielding the 13th-lowest CPOE and the tenth-fewest yards per attempt. Herbert could be a QB1 this week, but he really needs Ladd McConkey to suit up to help his floor and ceiling projections.

Rachaad White (RB)

Last week, White resumed his workhorse role, playing 76% of the snaps and finishing with 19 touches and 109 total yards as the RB3 for the week. White could easily do that again in Week 15. Even if Bucky Irving plays, he could be limited. Among 61 qualifying backs, White ranks 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. White should have a monster day against a Bolts’ run defense that has fallen off in recent weeks. Since Week 9, Los Angeles has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, the sixth-highest zone rushing success rate, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 53.3% zone).

Quentin Johnston (WR)

I’ll update Johnston’s status on Friday when we hopefully have a better idea about Ladd McConkey‘s availability for Week 15. His outlook could vary widely depending on the availability of the Bolts’ star rookie. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

I’ll update Palmer’s status on Friday when we hopefully have a better idea about Ladd McConkey‘s availability for Week 15. His outlook could vary widely depending on the availability of the Bolts’ star rookie. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Since Mike Evans‘ return, Shepard has had a 21.5% target share, 1.78 YPRR (40.3 receiving yards per game), and a 25.4% first-read share. Last week was just the second time this season he has finished with double-digit PPR points (10.3). He has a season-high 63 receiving yards against the Raiders, who have been crushed by slot receivers all year. This week, he has another nice matchup, and he’s a decent flex option. Shepard has four red zone targets in his last three games. Since Week 9, Los Angeles has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Stone Smartt (TE)

With Will Dissly sidelined, Smart should take over as the team’s primary tight end. Last week in the second half, he had a 73.3% route share, a 25% target share, 4.91 YPRR (54 receiving yards), and a 30% first-read share. He’s a fantastic streaming option against a Bucs pass defense that has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield is the QB5 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a QB1 in two of his last three games. He ranks fifth in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, ninth in passer rating, and 17th in CPOE. He could return low-end QB1 numbers this week, but he has a tough matchup to overcome. Since Week 9, the Bolts have kept quarterbacks in check, giving up the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, and the seventh-lowest passer rating.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Irving opened this week with a DNP (back). I’ll update his status on Friday. I won’t be surprised if he sits this week.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Last week, Vidal led the Chargers’ backfield with a 53% snap rate, as he had eight rushing attempts and 34 rushing yards (zero receptions). He has a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.57 yards after contact per attempt. Neither of those numbers is overwhelmingly impressive, but they are more inspiring than anything Gus Edwards can conjure up at this point. Vidal could lead the backfield again this week, but he’s also a touchdown-dependent flex with a bad matchup. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Over the last two weeks, Edwards has averaged 8.5 touches and 34.5 total yards. He has played 43-52% of the snaps overall while handing 42% of the red zone snaps. Edwards is the most uninspiring touchdown-dependent RB3/flex. He has zero explosive runs this season, a 13% missed tackle rate, and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt. If he doesn’t score this week, you’ll hate that you played him. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey opened the week with a limited practice session (knee/shoulder). His status remains up in the air for Week 15. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Cade Otton (TE)

Since Mike Evans‘ return, Otton has had a 15.1% target share, 1.62 YPRR (40 receiving yards per game), and a 12.7% first-read share. Last week was his first time back in the TE1 good graces with Evans back (TE11). In his previous two games, he had finished as the TE28 in fantasy each week. This week will be another rough outing for Otton. Over the last five weeks, the Chargers have allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Sit Otton and stream a tight end.

LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV