Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
- BAL -16, O/U 42.5
- Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- In Tommy DeVito‘s only start this season, New York had the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
- Since Week 10, Baltimore has ranked seventh in neutral pace and 19th in neutral passing rate.
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
| Justice Hill | RB | RB3 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR2 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR3/4 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | WR6 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE2 |
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tommy DeVito | QB | QB2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | RB2 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | RB4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | WR3 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | WR5 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | WR5 |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE | TE3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Flowers is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets among wide receivers. That role will come in handy this week. He has also seen his red zone usage increase recently, with four red zone targets in his last five games. Flowers has a 24.5% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a 28.9% first-read share. Flowers should shred the Giants’ coverage this week. Since Week 7, they have utilized single high with 66.5% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Flowers has seen his target share increase to 27.7% with 3.01 YPRR and a 31.1% first-read share. In addition to the single-high bump Flowers gets this week, he should be the preferred target for Lamar Jackson when he does deep, and the Giants have struggled to defend deep passing. Since Week 9, New York has allowed the 11th-most deep passing yards per game and the seventh-highest CPOE to deep passing. New York has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target this season to perimeter wide receivers.
With Lock under center the last two games, Nabers has finished as the WR25 and WR26 in weekly fantasy scoring. With Lock, Nabers has had a 25.9% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 36.7% first-read share. Nabers doesn’t have any end zone or red zone targets over the last two games, which is more an indictment for the offense than Nabers’ role or talent. Nabers has another nice matchup through the air this week, but with Lock and this offensive ecosystem weighing him down, it might not matter. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Bateman is the WR52 in fantasy points per game with five weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring this season. Bateman is a flex play with plenty of upside this week. Bateman has a 13.4% target share with 1.75 YPRR and a 14.7% first-read share. If Jackson is looking to exploit this secondary deep this week, he will be looking for Bateman as his second option behind Zay Flowers. Bateman ranks second on the team in deep targets, behind only Zay Flowers. Since Week 9, New York has allowed the 11th-most deep passing yards per game and the seventh-highest CPOE to deep passing. New York has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target this season to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 5, Andrews has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game. Across his last nine games, Andrews has had a 15.5% target share with 2.35 YPRR and a 16% first-read share. During that time frame, Andrews has had ten red zone targets. Since Week 7, New York has utilized single high with 66.5% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 5, against single high, Andrews ranks third on the team with a 20% TPRR, second in YPRR (2.14), and third in first-read share (15.7%). Andrews should return TE1 numbers again in Week 15.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers are the only Giants that have remained fantasy-viable with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. This offense has cratered.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
I’ll keep this short and sweet. The answer is no. No, even in Superflex leagues, you shouldn’t be playing Tommy DeVito this week. In his only start this season, he had zero passing touchdowns, 6.1 yards per attempt, and scored only 10.8 fantasy points (QB24). A large chunk of that fantasy scoring was thanks to his 32 rushing yards. I won’t pin my fantasy playoff hopes on DeVito.
Over the last two games with Drew Lock under center, Tracy Jr. has averaged 16 touches and 74 total yards with RB17 and RB11 weekly scoring finishes. Last week, he saw a huge uptick in his passing game usage, with a 16.3% target share. That will come in handy this week if it continues. Among 61 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. ranks 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Tracy Jr. will have a tough time running the ball this week. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. Tracy Jr. could get it done through the air if Lock continues checking it down to him this week, which he’ll need, considering the hit his rushing stats will likely take. Baltimore has allowed the third-highest yards per reception and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Johnson passed droppable status a while ago. He should be back this week, but it doesn’t really matter. If he isn’t even playing half of the snaps weekly, he can’t make an impact on the game or in your fantasy lineups.
LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- NYJ -3.5, O/U 40.5
- New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 10, the Jets have ranked 12th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate. During the same span, Jacksonville has sat at tenth in neutral pace and 20th in neutral passing rate.
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | QB1/2 |
| Breece Hall | RB | TBD |
| Isaiah Davis | RB | RB2/3 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | RB3 |
| Davante Adams | WR | WR2 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | WR2 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | TE3 |
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Mac Jones | QB | QB2 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB2/3 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR2/3 |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR5 |
| Evan Engram | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week was Rodgers’ first 300-yard passing day since Week 14 of the 2021 season. It was also only his second QB1 performance since Week 7. Since Week 7, among 35 qualifying passers, Rodgers has ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 13th in passing touchdowns, 20th in passer rating, and 31st in CPOE. He could stack another QB1 finish this week, though, against Jacksonville’s bottom-of-the-barrel pass defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the seventh-highest passing yards per game, the third-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
In Jones’ three full starts, he hasn’t finished higher than QB25 in weekly scoring. Since Week 10, among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones has ranked 27th in fantasy points per dropback and passer rating, 26th in yards per attempt, and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Jones faces a New York pass defense that has softened in recent weeks, but I doubt he will take advantage of their recent weakness. Since Week 9, New York has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-most passing yards per game, and the 13th-highest passer rating. Jones will likely return snooze-worthy QB2 numbers in Week 15.
Last week, Davis played 52% of the snaps overall, 50% of the passing down snaps, and had a 75% red zone snap rate. He finished with 13 touches and 67 total yards as the RB15 for the week. It’s a small sample, but he’s posted solid per-touch numbers with a 6.7% explosive run rate and a 20% missed tackle rate. This week, he’ll be in the RB2/3 area code again. Jacksonville continues to be a rushing defense that we can take advantage of. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the second-most rushing yards per game, and the fourth-highest rushing success rate.
Last week, many were shocked that Allen didn’t get the bell-cow workload as he split almost evenly with Isaiah Davis. I expect that split to continue in Week 15. Last week, Allen played 55.6% of the snaps overall, 52.4% of the snaps on passing downs, and had only a 33% snap rate inside the red zone. He finished with 15 touches and 81 total yards. He still looked underwhelming on a per-touch basis last week, with zero explosive runs and 1.55 yards after contact per attempt. Allen will be in the flex conversation this week, and another nice matchup is incoming. Jacksonville continues to be a rushing defense that we can take advantage of. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the second-most rushing yards per game, and the fourth-highest rushing success rate.
Since Week 7, Wilson has been the WR22 in fantasy points per game with seven red zone targets and four top 24 weekly finishes. Since Week 7, Wilson has had a 25.3% target share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has had the seventh-highest single high rate (59.6%). Since Week 7, Wilson has led the way against single-high with a 29.8% target share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 37.9% first-read share. Wilson should rip the Jaguars’ secondary apart this week. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 7, Adams has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with 11 red zone targets and three top 24 weekly fantasy finishes. Since Week 7, Adams has had a 26.6% target share, 1.94 YPRR, and a 31.4% first-read share. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has had the seventh-highest single high rate (59.6%). Since Week 7, against single high, Adams has had a 24% target share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read share. He has led the way recently with the Jets facing more two high coverage, but this week, he will likely take a backseat to Wilson. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
In Mac Jones‘ three full starts, Thomas Jr. has had a 25.6% target share, a 33.6% air-yard share, 2.12 YPRR, and a 30.5% first-read share. He’s had two top-36 finishes with Jones (WR30, WR20) and two red zone targets. Since Week 10, New York has utilized single high at the 12th-highest rate (57.1%). With Jones under center against single-high, Thomas Jr. has had a 28.3% target share, 2.87 YPRR, and a 32.4% first-read share. Thomas Jr. should have a rock-solid week if Jones can deliver him catchable targets. Since Week 9, New York has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and ranked 17th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Right now, we’ll approach this backfield like Hall misses at least another week. None of the news that has come out sounds like he will be trending toward playing in Week 15.
Last week, Bigsby played 53% of the snaps and finished with 19 touches and 62 total yards as the RB20 for the week. He handled 83% of the rushing play snaps, only 29% of the passing down snaps, and 40% of the red zone snaps. Among 61 qualifying backs, Bigsby ranks eighth in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby faces a tough rushing matchup this week. Since Week 9, New York has ranked 16th in rushing yards per game while also holding backs to the lowest explosive run rate and the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Last week, Etienne played 47% of the snaps, finishing with eight touches and 70 total scoreless yards. He was Jacksonville’s passing down back, playing only 17% of the rushing play snaps but 71% of the passing down snaps. He also saw 60% of the red zone snaps. Etienne is an uninspiring flex play that faces an uphill battle on early downs and doesn’t have a great matchup when he’ll be running routes from the backfield. Since Week 9, New York has ranked 16th in rushing yards per game while also holding backs to the lowest explosive run rate and the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate. This season, they have limited backs through the air with the tenth-fewest receptions allowed per game while ranking 15th in yards per reception.
In Mac Jones‘ three full starts, Engram has finished as a TE1 in weekly scoring once (TE10). He has had a 24.4% target share, 1.33 YPRR (33.7 receiving yards per game), and a 23.7% first-read share. In those three games, Engram hasn’t seen a red zone or end-zone target. Engram will likely disappoint this week. The Jets have allowed the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV
Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 10, Washington has had the second-fastest neutral pace while ranking 12th in neutral rushing rate. During the same timeframe, New Orleans has ranked 19th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral rushing rate.
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jayden Daniels | QB | QB1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | RB2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | RB3 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WR1 |
| Noah Brown | WR | Out |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | WR5 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | WR5 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | TE1 |
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jake Haener | QB | QB2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | RB2 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | RB3 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | RB5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | WR4 |
| Kevin Austin | WR | WR6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
It looks like Haener will get the start for New Orleans this week with Derek Carr out with a broken hand. In the preseason, which is the largest sample we have of Haener playing, among 61 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 28th in yards per attempt, 35th in big-time throw rate, and 51st in adjusted completion rate. None of those numbers are super encouraging, but in that sample, Haener did rank fourth in aDOT, so it is encouraging that he has been willing to push the ball some. Expecting anything more than low-end QB2 numbers for Haener this week is expecting too much. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the 12th-highest passer rating, the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the seventh-highest CPOE.
Robinson Jr. is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 25th in fantasy points per opportunity and 21st in red zone touches. In the last two games he has played in full, he has played between 47-53% of the snaps while averaging 17 touches and 90.5 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Robinson Jr. ranks 11th in explosive run rate and 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 9, New Orleans has remained a nice rushing matchup, allowing the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Miller played 26% of the snaps alongside Alvin Kamara. Miller logged ten rushing attempts and 32 rushing yards with his 18 snaps. Miller had a 33% snap rate. Miller only has 19 rushing attempts to look at this season, but his per-touch numbers have been strong, with a 5.3% explosive run rate, a 47% missed tackle rate, and 3.79 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-lowest stuff rate.
McLaurin is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in five games this season and already set a career-high with nine receiving touchdowns. McLaurin has a 20.9% target share with 2.47 YPRR and a 26.3% first-read share. McLaurin should have another strong week. Since Week 9, New Orleans has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Since Week 10, Valdes-Scantling has had a 13.9% target share, 2.86 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share. He has averaged 15.8 PPR points per game while also seeing three end-zone targets. He’s a viable flex option again this week, but I’m not projecting a smash game from him. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Brown has been ruled out for Week 15.
Over the last two weeks, Johnson has finished as the TE24 and TE3 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seen a 16.2% target share with 1.54 YPRR and a 24.4% first-read share. Johnson has two red zone targets in those two games. This week’s matchup isn’t great, but Johnson should see plenty of volume and high equity usage to give him a shot at finishing as a TE1 again this week. Across the last five weeks, Washington has allowed the 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Ertz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. Ertz has an 18.6% target share, 1.47 YPRR, and an 18.7% first-read share. The matchup isn’t great this week for Ertz, but he should see enough volume to put him in the conversation as a fringe TE1 for Week 15. Across the last five weeks, New Orleans has given up the 14th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 10, Cincy has ranked 11th in neutral pace and led the NFL in neutral passing rate. During the same span, Tennessee has had the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Burrow | QB | QB1 |
| Chase Brown | RB | RB1 |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | RB5 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | WR1 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | WR1/2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | WR4 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | TE3 |
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Will Levis | QB | TBD |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB4 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | WR3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | WR4/5 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | WR6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
This has remained Pollard’s backfield over the last two weeks with Tyjae Spears back. He has played at least 62% of the snaps each game while averaging 17.5 touches and 96 total yards. Pollard has had a 63% red zone snap rate in these two games. Overall, Pollard is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and 23rd in red zone touches. Among 61 qualifying running backs, he ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt.
Since Week 7, Ridley has been the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 27.4% target share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 35.7% first-read share. Ridley has seven red zone targets across his last eight games. Last week, Levis was dealing with a shoulder issue again, and Ridley saw his aDOT crater fall to 6.1. If Levis is under center this week, Ridley’s ceiling outcomes could be capped as Levis won’t be able to push the ball downfield. Since Week 10, Cincy has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (57.8%). Since Week 7, against two high, Ridley has had a 23.2% target share with 1.58 YPRR and a 32.9% first-read share. Since Week 9, Cincy has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, the NWI train was derailed. He finished with only one reception and 19 receiving yards. This week, if Levis is under center, his prospects will be tough to get excited about. Since Week 10, Cincy has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (57.8%). Since Week 7, against two high, Westbrook-Ikhine has had a 16% target share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 20.7% first-read share. Since Week 7, he has had six red zone targets. He’s a touchdown-dependent flex play with a banged-up quarterback. Since Week 9, Cincy has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Levis is dealing with the same shoulder issue again. We’ll have to see how he feels this week and watch his practice reports before determining his status for Week 15. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
With Tee Higgins active, Gesicki has had a 6.5% target share, 0.88 YPRR, and a 6.3% first-read share. He has had zero end-zone targets in these games and averaged 18.5 receiving yards per game. Drop Gesicki.
LAR vs. SF | MIA vs. HOU | KC vs. CLE | DAL vs. CAR | BAL vs. NYG | NYJ vs. JAC | WAS vs. NO | CIN vs. TEN | NE vs. ARI | BUF vs. DET | IND vs. DEN | TB vs. LAC | PIT vs. PHI | GB vs. SEA | CHI vs. MIN | ATL vs. LV
