Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -2.5, O/U 44.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Arizona has ranked 14th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate. During the same span, Seattle has been 15th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

James Conner (RB)

Conner is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in snap share, 13th in weighted opportunities and red zone touches, and 17th in opportunity share. He has averaged 18 touches and 89.5 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, Conner ranks 18th in explosive run rate, first in missed tackle rate, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. At first glance, this looks like a tough rushing matchup for Conner, but if Arizona stays committed to the run, Conner should have a nice day in Week 14. The last time he faced this defense, Arizona abandoned the run and only gave him seven carries. Since Week 8, Seattle has allowed the lowest explosive run rate and the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game, but in the same sample, they have also given up the 12th-highest yards per carry and the sixth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Conner 71% gap). This isn’t a case of small sample variance either. Seattle has struggled against gap runs all season, logging the third-lowest stuff rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the third-highest success rate allowed.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Smith-Njigba is now the WR16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in deep targets among wide receivers. He has three red zone targets and three scores across his last five games. Overall, he has a 21.5% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 23.9% first-read share. Since Week 10, Arizona has leaned heavily on two high coverage leading the NFL in usage (65.3%). Against two high, Smith-Njigba leads the team with a 20.9% target share while also recording 2.11 YPRR and a 22.2% first-read share. Since Week 8, Arizona has been more vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 16th in PPR points per target given up. The last time Smith-Njigba faced this secondary, he finished as the WR13 for the week (19.7 PPR points).

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith has fallen to the QB16 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring since Week 9. In four of his last five games, he has finished as the QB20 or lower in weekly scoring. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Smith has ranked 11th in passing yards per game, tenth in yards per attempt, 22nd in passing touchdowns, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith is headed for another tough week against a vastly improved Arizona pass defense. Since Week 8, Arizona has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt and passing touchdowns and the eighth-lowest CPOE.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray continued his Jekyll & Hyde performance roller coaster last week as the QB17 in fantasy. The last time he faced this Seattle pass defense (Week 12), he was the QB23 for the week, so I’m not projecting a bounce-back game this week. Seattle will again deploy the Kyler Murray kryptonite this week, which has been two high coverage. Since Week 10, Seattle has seen a turnaround in their pass defense with a move to more two high (56.4% of their defensive snaps, 11th-highest rate). Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks this season, Murray ranks 14th in yards per attempt, 25th in fantasy points per dropback, and 32nd in highly accurate throw rate against two high. Sit Murray if you can this week.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

With Kenneth Walker out this week, Charbonnet is in the RB2 mix for Week 14. Charbonnet has two starts this season. In those games, he averaged a 90% snap rate with 20 touches and 88 total yards with weekly finishes as RB7 and RB8. In limited work this season, Charbonnet has had a 23% missed tackle rate, with 2.53 yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet will have a tough matchup to overcome this week. Since Week 8, Arizona has allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

DK Metcalf (WR)

Metcalf is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets among wideouts. He has six red zone targets across his last five games played. Metcalf has a 22.5% target share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Since Week 10, Arizona has leaned heavily on two high coverage leading the NFL in usage (65.3%). Against two high, Metcalf has seen his target share fall to 18.8% with 2.25 YPRR and a 24.6% first-read share. These aren’t horrible numbers by any stretch of the imagination, but the decrease in target share is notable. Since Week 8, Arizona has held perimeter wide receivers to the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fewest PPR points per target. Metcalf didn’t practice on Thursday (shoulder), but he returned to a full session on Friday and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this week’s game.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Last week, Brian Flores switched up the game and played single-high on 64.7% of his defensive snaps, so Harrison Jr. walked away with a stronger game than I expected. I don’t think that will happen this week. Harrison Jr.’s splits versus single high and two high have been pronounced this season, and I don’t see Seattle moving away from their newfound love of two high. Seattle shut Harrison Jr. down last time while deploying two high on 55.8% of their defensive snaps, and I think we will see that again in Week 14. Against two high, Harrison Jr. has had an 18.6% target share with 1.45 YPRR and a 25.9% first-read share. Harrison Jr. is likely set for another subpar outing in Week 14. Since moving to more two high in Week 10, Seattle has held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game.

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant didn’t play against Arizona in their last meeting. He returned last week with a 68.6% route share, a 12.9% target share, 1.08 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. Since Week 10, Arizona has leaned heavily on two high coverage leading the NFL in usage (65.3%). Against two high, Fant ranks fourth on the team in TPRR (16%), third in YPRR (1.41), and fourth in first-read share (13.8%). Arizona has kept tight ends in check, giving up the tenth-lowest yards per reception and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams

• BUF -4.5, O/U 49.5
• Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Rams have ranked ninth in neutral pace and 19th in neutral passing rate. In the same time frame, Buffalo has operated with the 13th-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral passing rate.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Cooper Kupp

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, seventh in passer rating and hero throw rate, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Stafford could have enough success against Buffalo this week to place him in the fringe QB1 conversation. Since Week 8, Buffalo has held quarterbacks to the 13th-lowest yards per attempt and the 12th-lowest passer rating, but they have also allowed the fourth-highest CPOE and sixth-highest success rate per dropback as well. Buffalo is a strong pass defense, but they aren’t impervious.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Last week, if you look at Cooper’s overall route share (57.9% route share), it would appear that he remained a part-time player, but the weird snow game and blowout nature of the contest obscure things. In the first half, he had a 70% route share, which trailed only Khalil Shakir (80%). Assuming there are no flukey elements to this week’s game, we should see Cooper hit a 70-80% route share. During his time in Buffalo, when he was on the field, his per route numbers were good, with a 19% TPRR and 2.00 YPRR. Cooper could have a breakout game this week against a Rams’ secondary that, since Week 7, has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also surrendering the highest PPR points per target to the position.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman practiced on a limited basis all week (wrist) and has been listed as questionable. Coleman is a shaky flex play this week, as his route share is unpredictable. He could be a full-time player this week, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he only had a 50-60% route share. Coleman is the WR55 in fantasy points per game with three WR3 or higher weekly finishes. He has four red zone targets in his last four games played. Coleman has a 13.6% target share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 19.4% first-read share. He has a favorable matchup this week, so it’s also possible that he smashes if he is a full-time player this week. Since Week 7, the Rams’ secondary has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also surrendering the highest PPR points per target to the position.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Kincaid has been limited all week in practice (knee) and listed as questionable. Kincaid is the TE19 in fantasy points per game this season, with only three TE1 weeks in weekly fantasy scoring. He has an 18.2% target share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 19.4% first-read share. In his ten games played, he has eight deep targets and eight red zone looks. He could flirt with TE1 value this week if he sees a decent route share in his first game back. The Rams have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Since Week 7, Shakir has been the WR32 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 24.9% target share with 2.35 YPRR and a 32.5% first-read share. He has one end-zone target in this stretch while averaging 63.3 receiving yards per game. Shakir has six red zone targets across his last six games. He faces a Rams secondary that has been stout against slot receivers since Week 7, allowing the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest PPR points per target.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Since Week 8, Robinson has been on fire with three top 30 wide receiver weekly finishes (WR18, WR5, WR30) and six touchdowns. He has had an 11.8% target share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. He has led the team in end-zone targets with seven while averaging 39.2 receiving yards per game. The matchup this week isn’t great, but I won’t rule out that Robinson can keep the touchdown magic rolling in Week 14. Since Week 7, Buffalo has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and the 14th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

No Rams tight end is playable in fantasy. No Rams tight end had higher than a 23.1% route share last week.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL

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Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -4, O/U 44
• Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Thomas Brown calling the plays, Chicago has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate. Last week, with Brock Purdy back, the 49ers had the slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy is the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy ranks fourth in yards per attempt, 13th in passing yards per game, 11th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Chicago pass defense that has been in shambles over the last few weeks. Since Week 8, Chicago has allowed the 11th-highest success rate per dropback, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the 12th-highest passer rating. Purdy should have a strong day through the air.

Isaac Guerendo (RB)

With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out, Guerendo will take over as the 49ers’ starting tailback. He’s only had 42 carries in backup duty this season, but when he has gotten work, he’s been pretty good. He has a 9.5% explosive run rate, a 21% missed tackle rate, and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. I liked Guerendo as a prospect coming out, as he tested like a beast with 4.33 speed. He also flashed impressive efficiency numbers during this final collegiate season. Among all FBS rushers with at least 100 carries, he was 14th in yards after contact per attempt and 18th in breakaway percentage. He also flashed in the passing game, ranking tenth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He should see 15-20 touches this week and crush an exposed Chicago run defense. Since Week 8, Chicago has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the seventh-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Guerendo 76.2% zone).

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Swift didn’t practice this week (quad) until logging a limited session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable, and his status for this week is up in the air. It’s possible he could be out this week. If you have Swift, you should be rostering Travis Homer for this week. Since Week 11, he has played 55-69% of the snaps weekly while averaging 15 touches and 74.4 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. If he does play this week, he draws a wonderful matchup. Since Week 8, the 49ers’ run defense has been leaky, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Travis Homer (RB)

If Swift can’t go this week, Homer will draw the start and likely be the team’s workhorse. Homer only has three carries for 16 rushing yards this season, so we don’t really have any sample size to work with regarding his performance. He also didn’t log a carry with Chicago last year. Homer will still be in the RB2/3 bucket if he draws the start because he has been a trusted receiving back during his NFL career, and a practice squad back wouldn’t likely be taking away from his work much, if at all, especially in the red zone. Homer would likely see 12-15 touches if he draws the start in a great matchup. Since Week 8, the 49ers’ run defense has been leaky, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 10, Jennings has been the WR23 in fantasy with a 28.8% target share, a 37.6% air-yard share, 2.48 YPRR, and a 36.3% first-read share. Across his last four games, he has five red zone targets. Chicago has the fifth-highest singe-high rate (60.2%). Since Week 10, against single-high, Jennings has had a 28.3% target share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. He should lead the way for San Francisco through the air this week. Since Week 8, Chicago has ranked 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the fifth-most PPR points per target.

DJ Moore (WR)

Moore didn’t practice this week until Friday (quad). He only managed a limited session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable, and his status is up in the air. Since Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties, Moore has finished as the WR29, WR4, and WR7 in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 11, Moore has had a 25.4% target share, 1.98 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share. Across the last three games, he has seen five red zone targets. Since Week 9, the 49ers have utilized single-high at the third-highest rate in the NFL (67.5%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Moore has seen his numbers increase across the board with a 36.2% target share, 2.65 YPRR, and a 38.1% first-read share. Since Week 8, San Francisco has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. If Moore plays, he should crush this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Since Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties, Williams has been the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams has continued the roller coaster ride, ranking ninth in passing yards per game, 12th in passer rating, 28th in CPOE, and 21st in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 8, the 49ers haven’t been an easy matchup for quarterbacks, allowing the fewest passing yards per game, the 14th-lowest passer rating, the fifth-fewest fantasy points via passing, and the third-lowest yards per attempt. Williams can offset passing struggles with his rushing equity, but it still probably leaves him as a QB2 this week.

Roschon Johnson (RB)

Johnson has been ruled out for Week 14 (concussion).

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen opened this week with a DNP (ankle). He practiced in full for the rest of the week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Since Week 11, Allen has finished as the WR49, WR5, and WR4 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has had a 26.3% target share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share. Allen has three red zone targets in his last three games. Since Week 9, the 49ers have utilized single-high at the third-highest rate in the NFL (67.5%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Allen has had a 22.4% target share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share. He has a tough matchup this week, aside from the worries about the coverage shell matchup. Since Week 8, the 49ers have held slot receivers to the fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest PPR points per target.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Odunze could get a boost this week if D.J. Moore is out, but if Moore plays, Odunze is a must-sit this week. Since Week 9, the 49ers have utilized single-high at the third-highest rate in the NFL (67.5%). Since Week 11, against single-high, Odunze has had a 19% target share, 0.97 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. I’ll update his status if Moore gets ruled out. He does have a favorable matchup if he gets the target boost with Moore sitting. Since Week 8, San Francisco has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Since Week 10, Samuel has been the WR75 in fantasy points per game. It’s been a tough season for him. Samuel might see a few rushing attempts this week with McCaffrey and Mason out, but it’s also possible that he won’t. Samuel only has one rushing attempt over his last three games. This week’s matchup is a good one, but it’s fair to question whether Samuel can capitalize at this point of the season. Chicago has the fifth-highest singe-high rate (60.2%). Since Week 10, against single-high, Samuel has had a 23.3% target share and a 27.3% first-read share with only 1.39 YPRR and 0.068 FD/RR. Since Week 8, Chicago has ranked 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the fifth-most PPR points per target.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Pearsall is droppable at this point. Unless he makes some noise in Week 14, this will likely be the last time he gets a blurb in the Primer this season. Pearsall hasn’t recorded a reception or logged a receiving yard since Week 10.

Cole Kmet (TE)

I’m not high on Kmet this week. Since Week 11, with Thomas Brown calling the plays, Kmet has had a 13.6% target share, 1.35 YPRR, and an 11.9% first-read share. Kmet has only two red zone targets over his last six games. The 49ers have held tight ends to the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Watch Live on Fubo
• KC -4, O/U 43
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, the Chargers have had the seventh-slowest neutral pace and ranked 18th in neutral passing rate. In their last five games, Kansas City has ranked 15th in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral passing rate.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Since Week 8, Herbert has been the QB12 in fantasy points per game (minimum three starts). During this stretch, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked eighth in yards per attempt, 13th in passer rating and CPOE, and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Herbert should find success this week against a recently leaky Chiefs’ pass defense. Since Week 8, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the ninth-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

Last week, Pacheco played 37% of the snaps and finished with eight touches and 49 total yards. He split the rushing play snaps evenly with Kareem Hunt (46.7%) while only seeing 25% of the red zone snaps. I expect him to get more work this week for the rushing snaps to tilt in his favor and for the red zone usage to also flip in his favor. Pacheco looked like a player returning from injury. Outside of his 14.3% explosive run rate, he didn’t force a missed tackle and had only 1.86 yards after contact per attempt. He could be a low-end RB2 this week if he gets into the end zone with the rushing matchup he is staring at. Since Week 8, the Chargers’ run defense has fallen apart as they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey has been listed as questionable this week as he is dealing with knee and shoulder injuries. Since Week 8, McConkey has been the WR11 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 24.3% target share with 3.25 YPRR and a 31.2% first-read share. He has been awesome, with three 100-yard receiving performances. The only knock with his usage has been only two red zone targets. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 8, against two high (minimum 50 routes), McConkey has ranked second in TPRR (21%), third in YPRR (1.93), and tied for first with a 21.6% first-read share. If he’s good to go, McConkey should have another standout game. Since Week 8, Kansas City has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Last week, Hopkins saw his usage improve with a 63.5% route share, a 19.6% target share, 2.73 YPRR (90 receiving yards), and a 24% first-read share (second behind only Travis Kelce). He also saw an end-zone target. Hopkins has seven red zone targets across his last five games played in a Chiefs uniform. He faces a Chargers’ secondary that has had some issues since Week 8, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Since Week 8, Johnston has had a 17% target share, 1.60 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. He’s had three red zone targets during that span and scored three touchdowns. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 8, against two high (minimum 50 routes), Johnson has ranked fourth in TPRR (12%), first in YPRR (2.23), and third in first-read share (17.9%). Johnston runs into a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson is a weekly flex dice roll. At this point, the boom/bust nature of his game is well known.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

Palmer is a flex play that really only comes into focus if McConkey misses this week or if you’re in a deep league and you’re desperate. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 8, against two high (minimum 50 routes), Palmer ranks third in TPRR (13%), second in YPRR (2.17), and fourth in first-read share (15.7%). Since Week 7, Palmer has seen only one red zone target, so his chances of scoring a touchdown this week are slim unless he breaks a big play. He does have a favorable matchup against a secondary that has been struggling recently. Since Week 8, Kansas City has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Will Dissly (TE)

I understand the goose egg that Dissly laid in the box score last week hurt. I get it, but this isn’t the week to hop off the Dissly train. Before that terrible game last week, Dissly had been money in fantasy. In Weeks 7-12, Dissly had a 19.1% target share, 19.3% first-read share, and 2.01 YPRR. He averaged 48 receiving yards per game and had two TE1 weeks (TE7, TE6). This week, he draws a dream matchup against a Chiefs pass defense that has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Mahomes is the QB12 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a QB1 in three of his last five games. Since Week 9, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked sixth in passing yards per game, fourth in passing touchdowns, tenth in passer rating, and 17th in CPOE. Mahomes faces what has been a surprisingly strong Bolts pass defense. Since Week 8, the Chargers have held quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest CPOE.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Last week, Edwards led the way for the backfield with a 52% snap rate while playing 64% of the rushing play snaps. What’s concerning for Edwards is that he didn’t see a snap inside the red zone. Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins each played 40% of the red zone snaps. Last week, Edwards had seven touches and 33 total yards. Edwards has been stuck in the mud all season, with only a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.16 yards after contact per attempt. I expect him to lead the backfield in touches again this week, but if you told me that Kimani Vidal took over as the lead back this week, I wouldn’t be shocked at all. Edwards is a must-sit this week. Since Week 8, the Chiefs have continued to field an elite run defense, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Last week, Hunt’s grip on this backfield loosened. He played only 38% of the snaps, with nine touches and 15 total yards. He split the rushing down snaps evenly with Isiah Pacheco (46.7% each) while holding a lead in the red zone (50% of the snaps). I expect Pacheco to eat into Hunt’s workload further this week as he reclaims the backfield. That makes Hunt a volatile flex play at best. The entire thesis behind Hunt’s value has been volume and not efficiency. With the volume drying up quickly, his fantasy value could quickly go to zero as soon as this week. At least working in his favor this week is that he has a wonderful matchup on the ground. Since Week 8, the Chargers’ run defense has fallen apart as they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Vidal could take over as the Bolts lead back this week, but it’s difficult to project that. I think we have all seen enough from Gus Edwards to know that the gas tank is empty. I hope the Chargers feel the same way. There’s no way to play Vidal with any confidence this week, especially considering the difficult matchup. Last week, Vidal played 26% of the snaps with four carries and 20 rushing yards. He did play 40% of the red zone snaps. Vidal has looked serviceable when he has gotten opportunities, with a 4.5% explosive run rate and 2.55 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, the Chiefs have continued to field an elite run defense, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since Week 9, Worthy has finished higher than WR41 in weekly fantasy scoring only once. He has drawn three red zone targets in that span, so that’s mildly encouraging. Across his last five games, he has only an 11.9% target share, a 23.4% air-yard share, 1.07 YPRR, and a 13.6% first-read share. He’s a dart throw flex with a good matchup this week. He faces a Chargers’ secondary that has had some issues since Week 8, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL