New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

• NO -4.5, O/U 41
• New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 10, New Orleans has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Last week, with Drew Lock starting, New York ranked third in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Alvin Kamara

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Derek Carr (QB)

Since Week 10, Carr has been the QB18 in fantasy points per game. It’s honestly impressive, considering the crumbling skill position depth chart for New Orleans. Since Week 10, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Carr has ranked seventh in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, 16th in passing yards per game, and 12th in passing touchdowns. Since Week 8, the Giants have remained a pitiful pass defense, allowing the eighth-most yards per attempt and passer rating while also ranking 15th in CPOE. They have been dreadful at defending deep passing all year, giving up the fifth-most deep passing yards per game and the highest passer rating to targets 20 or more yards downfield. Carr should remain a strong QB2 for Week 14.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Last week, Tracy Jr. reclaimed his workhorse status in the Giants offense with 75% of the snaps, 81% of the passing down snaps, and 100% of the red zone snaps. He finished with 11 touches and 65 total yards. Since Week 5, Tracy Jr. has averaged 16.6 touches and 90.9 total yards. Tracy has been awesome on a per-touch basis this season. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 11th in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. New Orleans still can’t stop anyone on the ground. If the Giants can keep the game somewhat close or stay committed to the run, Tracy Jr. should have a nice day. Since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-highest rushing success rate, the 13th-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Malik Nabers (WR)

Without Daniel Jones under center, Nabers has still had a 32.8% target share, 66.5 receiving yards per game, 1.77 YPRR, and a 39.6% first-read share. Sadly, all of the volume in this broken offense has only equated to 13.9 fantasy points per game. Nabers has one red zone target over the last two games. The feather in his cap that can help him this week is the Saints’ secondary, which has been dreadful. Since Week 8, they have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Nabers popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a hip issue. He has been listed as questionable and didn’t practice on Friday.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR)

Since Week 10, Valdes-Scantling has been running hotter than the sun with 18.1 fantasy points per game, as he’s been converting with all of his deep target opportunities. Since Week 10, he has scored four times, two of which came via deep targets. 60% of his target volume has been deep targets. Overall, during this span, he’s had a 74% route share, an 11% target share (25.7 aDOT), 3.27 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Valdes-Scantling has seen three end zone targets across his last three games. He should be able to keep up the magical run this week. The Giants have been dreadful at defending deep passing all year, giving up the fifth-most deep passing yards per game and the highest passer rating to targets 20 or more yards downfield.

With Drew Lock tossing passes, the entire Giants passing attack has cratered. The only fantasy viable option at this juncture we can consider weekly from that aerial attack is Malik Nabers.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Drew Lock (QB)

Last week, Lock finished as the QB21 in fantasy purely based on his 57 rushing yards (one rushing score). As a passer, he was absolutely terrible, with only 5.6 yards per attempt and zero passing touchdowns. I know the matchup with the Saints is fantastic, but there’s no way I’m trusting Lock in my fantasy lineup this week. Not when we are standing at the precipice of the fantasy playoffs. Even in Superflex, I’ll play a skilled player in that lineup spot over Lock.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

With Taysom Hill lost for the rest of the season, Johnson should assume a huge role in the passing game. Last week, he tied for the team lead with a 16.2% target share with a 76.9% route share, 1.20 YPRR (36 receiving yards), and a 26.3% first-read share (led the team). Johnson is a volume-based streaming option because the matchup isn’t glorious. New York has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per reception and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

• TEN -3.5, O/U 39.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Mac Jones starting, Jacksonville has ranked sixth in neutral pace and 22nd in neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 10, with Will Levis under center, Tennessee has had the third-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Will Levis (QB)

Since Week 10, Levis has been the QB19 in fantasy points per game. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in this span, he has ranked fourth in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and 14th in passing yards per game. Before we get out over our skis, he’s still had plenty of “Will Levis” moments, ranking 26th in catchable target rate and logging the fifth-highest off-target rate. If Levis can channel his best inner “Jameis Winston” this week, I won’t be surprised if he flirts with low-end QB1 value. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the most passing yards per game and yards per attempt while also giving up the eighth-highest passer rating and third-highest CPOE.

Mac Jones (QB)

Last week, in relief of Trevor Lawrence, Jones finished as the QB12 for the week, but he was absolutely dreadful in his two previous starts, finishing as the QB25 and QB29 in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 10, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 26th in catchable throw rate. With that said, Jones should post solid numbers this week against Tennessee’s porous pass defense. Since Week 8, the Titans have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-most CPOE, and the ninth-most success rate per dropback.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Last week, with Tyjae Spears returning, Tennessee remained committed to Pollard as their clear workhorse. He played 73% of the snaps, finishing with 12 touches and 68 total yards. Pollard has played well this year as the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranks ninth in carries, fifth in weighted opportunities, and sixth in opportunity share. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rates and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard should have another nice day this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the eighth-highest success rate to gap runs (Pollard 58.9% gap).

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Thomas Jr. is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in deep targets among wideouts. Since Week 10, he has only seen one red zone target. Overall, he has seen a 19.1% target share and 22.8% first-read share, producing 2.36 YPRR and 63.8 receiving yards per game. Since Week 9, Tennessee has utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate (55.8%). Against two high, Thomas Jr. has seen his target share fall to 17.2% with 1.87 YPRR and a 21.2% first-read share. The reduction in volume and efficiency is notable, but this secondary has been dreadful against perimeter wide receivers over the last few weeks. I don’t know if it matters that much. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Ridley is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with five WR3 or higher outings this season. Four of those performances have occurred since Week 8. He is third in deep targets among wide receivers and has seen two red zone targets in his last four games. Since Levis has returned, he has had a 23.3% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, and a 28.9% first-read share with 2.24 YPRR. Over the last two games, Jacksonville has moved back to featuring single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (65.8%). This is fantastic news for Ridley. Since Week 10, against single-high, Ridley has seen his target share rise to 25.5% with 2.80 YPRR and a 29.7% first-read share. He should torch his former team this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)

Good lawd…he can’t keep doing this…can he? Across his last eight games, he has eight receiving touchdowns. 40% of his receptions in that span have been converted into touchdowns. That is absolutely insane. He has four weekly finishes as a top-24 wide receiver. Since Week 10, Westbrook-Ikhine has had a 17.2% target share with 2.04 YPRR and a 22.9% first-read share with only one red zone target. Over the last two games, Jacksonville has moved back to featuring single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (65.8%). This is fantastic news for Ridley. Since Week 10, against single-high, Westbrook-Ikhine has had a 17.6% target share with 0.98 YPRR and a 21.6% first-read share. The efficiency drop-off is notable, but against this dumpster fire secondary in Jacksonville, it might not matter this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Parker Washington (WR)

I don’t want to chase last week’s big game for Washington. Last week, he had an 87% route share, a 28.6% target share, 103 receiving yards (2.64 YPRR), and a 31.4% first-read share. That all looks amazing. In his two previous games, he had a 58.6% route share, a 5.9% target share, five receiving yards per game, and a 7.5% first-read share. Gabriel Davis was a factor in Weeks 10 & 11 that also needs to be mentioned, but I won’t be surprised if Washington doesn’t see last week’s usage moving forward. If you’re in desperation mode for a flex play, I understand embracing the risk with Washington. I just want to acknowledge the risk that last week’s performance was an outlier. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Evan Engram (TE)

Since Week 10, Engram has had a 24.7% target share, 1.28 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. Since Week 9, Tennessee has utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate (55.8%). Since Week 10, against two high, Engram has had a 29.3% target share with 1.87 YPRR and a 28.1% first-read share. It’s a perfect schematic matchup for Engram. The big question is if Mac Jones can play well enough to support any high-end fantasy options this week. Across their last five games, Tennessee has ranked 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Last week, Bigsby returned to the lineup, playing 46% of the snaps but only 33% of the snaps in the red zone. He finished with eight touches and 35 total yards. It’s tough to get excited about playing Bigsby right now, considering the state of this offense. There hasn’t been a ton of passing volume directed to the running back position (Jags have the fifth-lowest target share to the running back position, 14.4%), a consistent commitment to running the football, and the overall offensive environment has been downgraded considerably with Mac Jones under center. Bigsby is a touchdown-dependent RB3 who is likely better off on your bench this week. Since Week 8, Tennessee has ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in missed tackle rate while allowing the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Last week, with Tank Bigsby back, Etienne played 52% of the snaps, 64% of the rushing play snaps, and had a 67% red zone snap rate. Etienne finished with 16 touches and 58 total yards. He has been immensely disappointing this season on a per-touch basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Etienne is a volume-based RB3/flex play. Since Week 8, Tennessee has ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in missed tackle rate while allowing the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears lost any standalone fantasy appeal he had last week. In his return, he played only 25% of the snaps and had one carry for three yards. The team looks committed to Pollard as their near-everydown workhorse.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -6.5, O/U 46.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 12, Tampa Bay has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Last week, the Raiders ranked 11th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Mike Evans
• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield is the QB5 in fantasy points per game, but he has only one QB1 finish across his last four games, as most of the touchdown production has gone to the running backs over the last month. Mayfield hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 9. Overall, among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in passing yards per game, 16th in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and 18th in CPOE. Mayfield should turn in QB1 numbers this week against Las Vegas. Since Week 8, the Raiders secondary has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.

Aidan O’Connell (QB)

Ok, I’ll own the L here. I was very dismissive of O’Connell last week in the Primer. I have to give credit where credit is due. O’Connell was dealing last week as the QB13 in fantasy. He finished with 340 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and 9.7 yards per attempt. Among quarterbacks with at least ten dropbacks last week, he ranked third in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, and second in hero throw rate. He could post a similar stat line this week against what has been a hapless Bucs pass defense. Since Week 8, they have given up the 11th-most yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest CPOE, and the third-highest success rate per dropback.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Last week, Irving went full legend mode with 28 touches and 185 total yards. He logged a touch or target on 65% of his snaps played. Irving has been balling out this season. The rookie has offered a huge spark to the Bucs offense. Since Week 7, he has averaged 16.7 touches and 103.1 total yards per game as the RB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 57 qualifying backs, Irving ranks eighth in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. This week, Irving will be tested against an improved Raiders run defense. Since Week 8, the Raiders have allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Since Week 4, Meyers has been the WR18 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 25.1% target share with 2.02 YPRR (74.9 receiving yards per game) and a 32.9% first-read share. I know everyone loves Brock Bowers. I get it, but Meyers deserves your admiration and respect, too. Across his last seven games, he has seven red zone targets (only one score). Meyers should crush again this week. Since Week 8, the Bucs have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Since Mike Evans‘ return, Shepard has had a 21.9% target share, 1.26 YPRR (29 receiving yards per game), and a 27.1% first-read share. He has finished as the WR54 in weekly fantasy scoring in each game. I know I’ll sound crazy here, but he is primed for a strong game this week. He has four red zone targets over the last two weeks and hasn’t scored a touchdown, so there’s some baked-in touchdown regression that’s due to hit here. Also, the Raiders have been dreadful at defending the slot. Since Week 8, Las Vegas has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game, the most fantasy points per game, and the fourth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton is the TE7 in fantasy points per game, ranking third at the position in red zone targets. Since Mike Evans‘ return, though, it hasn’t been pretty with back-to-back TE28 weekly finishes. He has had two red zone targets over the last two games. Since Week 12, he’s had a 15.6% target share, 25 receiving yards per game (1.02 YPRR), and a 10.4% first-read share. The good thing for Otton is that he has a wonderful matchup this week and could be headed for a bounce-back game. The Raiders have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rachaad White (RB)

Since Week 8, White has been the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 11.6 touches and 59.4 total yards per game. Among 57 qualifying backs, he has ranked 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. White is an RB2/3 this week against an improved Raiders run defense. Since Week 8, the Raiders have allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Ameer Abdullah (RB)

Last week, Abdullah retained the lead back role, playing 62% of the snaps with 12 touches and 53 total yards. He played 44% of the rushing play snaps, 74% of the passing down snaps, and 100% of the red zone snaps. This week, this entire backfield is up in the air, with the return of Alexander Mattison and the possible continued ascension of Sincere McCormick. The work could be split up in three directions this week, or one of these backs could emerge to lead the way. There’s no way to project their workloads accurately. This week’s matchup isn’t great, as the Bucs have massively improved as a run defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Abdullah is an uneasy flex this week.

Sincere McCormick (RB)

Antonio Pierce has talked up McCormick this week and mentioned getting him more work this week. We’ll see if that happens, but the talented young back has earned it. Last week, he played 38% of the snaps overall, 56% of the rushing play snaps, and 26% of the passing down snaps. McCormick finished with 14 touches and 65 total yards. He’s only had 17 carries this season, but posting an 11.8% explosive run rate, a 24% missed tackle rate and 2.59 yards after contact per attempt is pretty, pretty good. This week, this entire backfield is up in the air, with the return of Alexander Mattison and the possible continued ascension of Sincere McCormick. The work could be split up in three directions this week, or one of these backs could emerge to lead the way. There’s no way to project their workloads accurately.This week’s matchup isn’t great, as the Bucs have massively improved as a run defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Abdullah is an uneasy flex this week.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -6.5, O/U 43.5
• Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Russell Wilson starting, Pittsburgh has had the 13th-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Jameis Winston has been at the helm, Cleveland has ranked sixth in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Wilson has defied the odds and my expectations for him this season as the QB13 in fantasy points per game. He had a monster game last week, which absolutely embarrassed the Bengals’ pass defense. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks second in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, sixth in CPOE, and third in hero throw rate. This week, he faces a downgraded Brown’s secondary that he should be able to take advantage of, assuming there’s no blizzard on the way. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest CPOE.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris is the RB25 in fantasy points per game, ranking 28th in snap share, tenth in weighted opportunities, fifth in carries, and tenth in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.7 touches and 89.5 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should run wild this week. Cleveland’s run defense has taken a step back. Since Week 8, they have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Harris 69.6% zone).

Jaylen Warren (RB)

What did Warren do to Arthur Smith or Mike Tomlin? I ask this because after seeing a season-high snap share in Week 12, his workload diminished last week. He played only 36% of the snaps, with seven touches and 64 total yards. He still led the backs with a 57% red zone snap rate, but Cordarrelle Patterson ate into his rushing and passing down snaps. We’ll see if this trend continues, but last week’s showing makes Warren a more volatile flex play. Warren has looked like himself since Week 8, though, with a 6.5% explosive run rate, a 26% missed tackle rate, and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt. The matchup is nice for Warren this week, so if his workload bounces back, he should resume his solid flex play status. Cleveland’s run defense has taken a step back. Since Week 8, they have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Harris 69.6% zone).

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens is the WR33 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Pickens has a 25.1% target share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 34.4% first-read share. Since Week 6, Cleveland has moved back to more single high (54.1%). Against single-high, Pickens has gobbled up volume with a 32% target share, 3.40 YPRR, and a 42.1% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Browns have been vulnerable to perimeter wide receivers, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most PPR points per target. Pickens popped up on the injury report on Friday with a hamstring issue and has been listed as questionable.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

The last time the Browns played the Steelers, Jeudy only saw Joey Porter Jr. on 36% of his routes, so I’m not projecting him to shadow Jeudy this week. I could easily be wrong here, so factor the possibility of Porter Jr. following him into his range of outcomes this week. Since Week 8, Jeudy has been on fire as the WR3 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 21.9% target share with 2.84 YPRR and a 24.1% first-read share. Pittsburgh utilizes single high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.8%). Against single high, since Week 8, Jeudy has had a 24.5% target share with 3.33 YPRR and a 27.5% first-read share. Jeudy should slay again this week. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

With Russell Wilson starting, Freiermuth has been the TE19 in fantasy points per game with a 10.6% target share, 1.58 YPRR, and an 11.8% first-read share. He has only three red zone targets over his last six games. Freiermuth is a low-end streaming option this week. The Browns rank 18th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends while also giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per game.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jameis Winston (QB)

Winston has been “Winstoning” with three QB1 finishes in his five starts (QB10, QB7, QB1) and finishing outside the top 15 weekly fantasy quarterbacks in the two other games (QB22, QB18). Since Week 8, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in passing yards per game, 14th in yards per attempt, 16th in hero throw rate, and 20th in catchable target rate. During that span, he has led that group of qualifying quarterbacks in turnover-worthy throw rate. While Joe Burrow had a strong game last week, the Steelers remain a strong pass defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, the 14th-fewest yards per attempt, and ranked 19th in CPOE.

Nick Chubb (RB)

Chubb saw his snaps drop back into the 30% range last week as he finished with 34% of the snaps played with 11 touches and 45 total yards. In four of his six games played this season, he has played 30-36% of the snaps. Overall, he has averaged 14.5 touches and 45.7 total yards per game. He has continued to look like a shell of his former self on a per-touch basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 54th in explosive run rate, 50th in missed tackle rate, and 52nd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has ranked 19th in rushing yards per game allowed while also giving up the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. Chubb needs to get into the end zone this week to pay off in fantasy.

Elijah Moore (WR)

Since Week 8, Moore has been the WR35 in fantasy points per game and has seen two red zone targets. During this stretch, he has had a 21.5% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share. Pittsburgh utilizes single high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.8%). Against single high, since Week 8, Moore has had a 24.5% target share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. The Steelers have toughened up against slot receivers since Week 8, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest PPR points per target. Moore should still see a healthy amount of volume this week despite the tough matchup, which keeps him on the flex radar.

Cedric Tillman (WR)

Tillman has been ruled out (concussion).

David Njoku (TE)

With Jameis Winston under center, Njoku has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 20.1% target share with 1.18 YPRR and a 19% first-read share. Across his last five games, he has five red zone targets and three scores. Pittsburgh utilizes single high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.8%). Against single high, since Week 8, Njoku has seen his target share fall to 18.9% while his YPRR has increased to 1.44, and his first-read share has bumped up to 22.5%. Njoku had a tough outing last time against the Steelers, securing only one of his five targets for nine scoreless yards. I’m not projecting a huge game this week from Njoku against a pass defense that shut him down last time and has held tight ends to the ninth-lowest yards per reception and 14th-fewest fantasy points per game.

GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL