All of the blood, sweat, and tears have led to this moment. As we stand on the precipice of the fantasy football playoffs, I salute you. I commend you for the late-night waiver wire bids. The constant trade messages to your league. The anxiety fueled lineup decisions that paid off. This is your time to shine. Your time to get the SPF 50 ready because basking in the warm glow of a freshly minted fantasy football trophy is in your future.
Now, let’s set those lineups and get one step closer to fantasy football immortality.
Welcome to the Week 14 Primer. Enjoy.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 14
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
- MIA -6, O/U 44.5
- New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 8, New York has ranked 11th and ninth in neutral pace and neutral passing rate. Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Miami has had the fourth-slowest neural pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate.
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | QB2 |
| Breece Hall | RB | Doubtful |
| Braelon Allen | RB | RB2 |
| Davante Adams | WR | WR2/3 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | WR2 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | TE2/3 |
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | QB1/2 |
| De’Von Achane | RB | RB1 |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | RB4 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | RB4 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | WR2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since his Week 8 return, Tagovailoa has played good football. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, fourth in passing touchdowns, first in passer rating, and eighth in CPOE. Among that sample, he has ranked 15th in fantasy points per dropback and eighth in fantasy points per game. Tagovailoa will be tested this week against a Jets’ pass defense that has bounced back in recent weeks. Since Week 8, they have given up the 12th-lowest passer rating and CPOE and the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback.
Since Week 8, for the most part, Rodgers has looked lost. He hasn’t passed for more than 233 yards in any game and finished with more than 18 fantasy points only once. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, he has the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, the second-lowest yards per attempt, and the second-lowest CPOE. It hasn’t been pretty. He faces a Miami pass defense that hasn’t been a scary matchup lately. Since Week 8, they have allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns, the sixth-most passing yards per game and ranked 16th in EPA per dropback. I don’t know if Rodgers can take advantage of a good matchup these days, much less excel against a middle-of-the-road one.
Allen is expected to draw the start at running back this week, with Breece Hall listed as doubtful. Allen has only a 67-carry sample to work with this season, so take the efficiency numbers with a small grain of salt. Allen hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis with this small sample, though. He has only a 1.5% explosive run rate, a 13% missed tackle rate, and 2.55 yards after contact per attempt. It’s unknown how much Isaiah Davis will be involved this week, which adds some uncertainty to Allen’s projection, but I still expect him to lead the backfield in touches and flirt with 15-20 opportunities this week. Since Week 8, the Dolphins’ run defense has fallen off considerably, allowing the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Since Week 8, Hill has surpassed 14 PPR fantasy points only twice while seeing eight red zone targets (three scores). Across his last six games, he has had an 18.5% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share while averaging 14.4 PPR points per game. The Jets have the seventh-highest single-high rate (56.6%). Since Week 8, against single high, Hill has seen his target share increase to 24.7% with 2.99 YPRR and a 27.3% first-read share. Hill will have a tough matchup this week despite the coverage shell being in his favor. Since Week 8, New York has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Wilson is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking second among wide receivers in red zone targets. Since Week 7, he has only four red zone targets and two scores. During the same span, he has had a 25.2% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 32.4% first-read share while averaging 13.9 PPR points per game. He’s a solid play this week against a Miami secondary that, since Week 8, has ranked 16th in fantasy points per game and 15th in PRR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 7, Adams has had a 26.7% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 31.7% first-read share while averaging 12.9 PPR points per game. Across his last six games, he has had seven red zone targets and two scores. Adams should continue to soak up volume this week. Since Week 8, Miami has ranked 16th in fantasy points per game and 15th in PRR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 20.8% target share with 2.53 YPRR and a 25.7% first-read share. He has had three end zone targets in this span and scored three times. Since Week 8, Smith has run 46.6% of his routes from the slot. Since Week 8, the Jets have held slot receivers to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in PPR points per target allowed. Smith should continue to get volume this week while keeping him in the TE1 good graces, but don’t expect a smash game.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Waddle has eclipsed 60 receiving yards and 12 fantasy points only twice this season. It’s been a tough season for an immensely talented player who seems to be on the outside looking in for the weekly game plan. Since Week 8, Jeudy has only two red zone targets and one touchdown. The Jets have the seventh-highest single-high rate (56.6%). Since Week 8, against single high, Waddle has had a 13.6% target share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 14.5% first-read share. Sit Waddle this week. Since Week 8, New York has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
- MIN -5.5, O/U 45.5
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Atlanta has slowed things down and moved toward a run-heavy approach. Since Week 8, they have ranked 18th in neutral pace with the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate. Across their last six games, Minnesota has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 20th in neutral passing rate.
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kirk Cousins | QB | QB2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | RB1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | RB4 |
| Drake London | WR | WR1/2 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | WR2/3 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | WR | WR5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | TE2 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2 |
| Cam Akers | RB | RB3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Darnold is the QB10 in fantasy points per game as he continues to defy logic with Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback magic. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, second in CPOE, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. He should shred Atlanta’s wretched pass defense. Since Week 8, Atlanta has allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest passer rating, and the tenth-highest CPOE.
Addison has raised his stock in recent weeks to the WR36 in fantasy points per game, with top 24 receiver showings in three of his last five games. He has five red zone targets and three scores across his last five games. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the sixth-highest rate (54.4%). Against two high, Addison has had a 16.4% target share with 1.82 YPRR and a 19.6% first-read share. He should crush this week against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Mooney is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets among wideouts. Sadly, he hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 7, though. This could be a good week for him to break the cold streak. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (65.2%). Against two high, Mooney has had a 22.1% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Hockenson has been the TE22 in fantasy points per game since his return and hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 10. This week’s matchup is a good bounce-back opportunity. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the sixth-highest rate (54.4%). Against two high, Hockenson ranks second in TPRR (22%), third in first-read share (18.5%), and has 1.54 YPRR. Atlanta ranks 17th in yards per reception and 12th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Cousins has been playing terribly. The team has stated that he remains the starter, but it’s in play that if he comes out and stinks it up in any game moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta yanks him and puts in Michael Penix. Outside of his games against the Bucs, Cousins hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 2 of the season. He hasn’t thrown for a touchdown since Week 9. I’m not plugging Cousins into any lineup this week. Especially not if your fantasy playoffs have already started. The risk is too great that he might not finish the game.
Last week, Jones saw his snaps cut some, with only 53% of the snaps having eight touches and 28 total yards. While the snap rate cut isn’t new, as he played 52-53% of the snaps in Weeks 10-11, it’s not something I’m overly concerned about moving forward. Jones is still clearly the best back on this roster. Jones is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.2 touches and 92.6 total yards per game. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones does look like he’s headed for another down week, though. Since Week 8, Atlanta has improved as a run defense, holding backs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 56% zone).
Pitts is coming off a week where he played a season-low 41% of the snaps and saw only two targets. The sad thing is I don’t know if his usage gets any better this week. It’s another terrible schematic matchup for him. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (65.2%). Against two high, Pitts has disappeared with a 13.3% target share, 0.95 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. The Vikings have limited tight ends to the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest yards per reception.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Bryce Young reclaimed his starting job, Carolina has ranked 12th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate. Since Week 8, Philly has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bryce Young | QB | QB2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | RB2 |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB | RB3 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | WR4 |
| David Moore | WR | WR5 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | WR4 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | Doubtful |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | TE2 |
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB4 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR2/3 |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Hubbard retained a stranglehold on the snaps last week while Jonathon Brooks was worked in more. He played 80% of the snaps, finishing with 12 touches and 43 total yards. Hubbard also had a 64% red zone snap rate last week. Hubbard is the RB15 in fantasy points per game this season, averaging 18.4 touches and 87.1 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 12th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard should find success this week if his offensive line can continue to open up holes. Since Week 8, Philly has been more pliable on the ground, allowing the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest zone rushing success (Hubbard 67.7% zone).
With Dallas Goedert back on the shelf, Calcaterra reenters the streaming tight-end conversation for Week 14. During his four-game run earlier this season as the team’s starter, he had one TE1 weekly finish and one red zone target. During that span, he had an 82.5% route share, a 15.5% target share, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 12.7% first-read share. Calcaterra couldn’t ask for a better matchup this week. Carolina has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Young has looked like a serviceable NFL quarterback since Week 8 despite still only performing as the QB25 in fantasy points per game during that time. He did finish as the QB7 in fantasy last week, but he can thank a rushing score and the Bucs’ pitiful pass defense for that. Since Week 8, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Young will have a tough time this week against an elite Philly pass defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the third-fewest passer rating, and the fourth-fewest CPOE and success rate per dropback.
Last week, Brooks played 21% of the snaps and had a 43% snap rate in the red zone. He finished with six touches and 41 total yards. Brooks has looked good so far with a 25% missed tackle rate, although his 1.63 yards after contact per attempt is passable, considering he’s only had eight carries. Brooks isn’t getting enough volume yet to be considered a weekly flex play, but he’s worth a hold. His role could continue to grow down the stretch as Carolina is in full eval mode to conclude the 2024 season.
Smith will be back this week. He has practiced in full all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation this week. Smith has fallen to WR32 in fantasy points per game as Philly has moved toward a lower-volume passing offense. With the decreased passing volume, Smith has been incredibly volatile for fantasy football. Across his last five games played, Smith has finished as a top 24 wide receiver in weekly scoring twice (WR7, WR13), but he has also finished outside the top 50 fantasy wideouts three times (WR102, WR71, WR54). Since Week 7, Smith has had a 21.1% target share (4.6 targets per game), 1.70 YPRR (42.6 receiving yards per game), and a 30.4% first-read share. During that span, he has only two red zone targets. Since Week 8, Carolina has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the fifth-fewest PPR points per target. Smith could return decent numbers this week, but the range of outcomes for his Week 14 performance is wide.
Since Week 8, with Bryce Young under center, Legette has had a 17.6% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. He has been the WR48 in fantasy points per game during this stretch, eclipsing 13 PPR fantasy points twice. Since Week 7, Philly has held perimeter wide receivers to the lowest fantasy points per game and PPR points per target. Legette will be flex-worthy in the upcoming weeks, but Week 14 isn’t one of them.
Since his return to the huddle, Thielen has had a 17.3% target share, 2.33 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share. He has one red zone target over the last two games. He crushed as the WR5 in PPR scoring last week, but he unfortunately doesn’t get to face the Bucs’ pitiful secondary weekly. Sit Thielen this week against a tough Philly secondary that, since Week 7, has held slot receivers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL