The fantasy semifinals are here, unless you’re in one of those leagues with the weird two-week playoff matches. Either way, it’s do or die this week. Be sure to stick around after my Week 16 projections for my picks to plan ahead for the fantasy finals.
Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 16)
I count at least 7 teams running quarterbacks who won’t be starters next year, which gives us a decent selection of teams to stream defenses against. Hopefully you’ve already been planning for this week, but if you do need to pick up a defense the odds are good that a decent option is available. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Bluesky.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | GB | NO | Spencer Rattler | 14.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 8.43 | 50% |
| 2 | BUF | NE | Drake Maye | 16.25 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 8.10 | 75% |
| 3 | ATL | NYG | Drew Lock | 16 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 7.38 | 37% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 4 | IND | TEN | Will Levis | 19 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.35 | 21% |
| 5 | KC | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 21 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.61 | 86% |
| 6 | DET | @CHI | Caleb Williams | 20.75 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.58 | 62% |
| 7 | MIN | @SEA | Geno Smith | 20.25 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 6.58 | 95% |
| 8 | ARI | @CAR | Bryce Young | 21.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 6.55 | 39% |
| 9 | HOU | @KC | Carson Wentz | 19 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.51 | 47% |
| 10 | CIN | CLE | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 20.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.50 | 39% |
| 11 | JAC | @LV | Aidan O’Connell | 19.25 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 5.39 | 8% |
| 12 | LV | JAC | Mac Jones | 20.25 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 6.31 | 4% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 13 | BAL | PIT | Russell Wilson | 19.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 5.29 | 94% |
| 14 | PHI | @WAS | Jayden Daniels | 21 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5.91 | 87% |
| 15 | SEA | MIN | Sam Darnold | 23.75 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 5.78 | 22% |
| 16 | LAR | @NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 21.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.67 | 11% |
| 17 | DEN | @LAC | Justin Herbert | 22.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.52 | 83% |
| 18 | NYJ | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 24.75 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5.51 | 62% |
| 19 | MIA | SF | Brock Purdy | 22.25 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.31 | 48% |
| 20 | LAC | DEN | Bo Nix | 19.75 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5.30 | 43% |
| 21 | CLE | @CIN | Joe Burrow | 27.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5.15 | 35% |
| 22 | DAL | TB | Baker Mayfield | 26.75 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5.03 | 40% |
| 23 | SF | @MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 23.75 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.02 | 73% |
| 24 | WAS | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 24.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5.01 | 62% |
| 25 | CAR | ARI | Kyler Murray | 25.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.98 | 2% |
| 26 | TEN | @IND | Anthony Richardson | 23.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4.90 | 26% |
| 27 | NYG | @ATL | Kirk Cousins | 25.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 4.87 | 3% |
| 28 | TB | @DAL | Cooper Rush | 22.75 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4.72 | 44% |
| 29 | PIT | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 25.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.68 | 90% |
| 30 | CHI | DET | Jared Goff | 27.25 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.25 | 36% |
| 31 | NO | @GB | Jordan Love | 27.75 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3.77 | 47% |
| 32 | NE | @BUF | Josh Allen | 30.25 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3.63 | 3% |
Week 16 Matchups
- GB vs NO: Jake Haener got his first start for the Saints last week, with Derek Carr injured. Haener was awful, and got benched for Spencer Rattler at halftime. Rattler is clearly the better quarterback, and almost completed the comeback against the Commanders. Rattler isn’t good, this is just a low bar to clear. In three starts earlier this season Rattler took 14 sacks, and the Saints were held to 10 or fewer points in two of them. Those two games were against a pair of good defenses – the Broncos and Chargers – but the Packers are in that neighborhood too and should be able to dominate this matchup.
- BUF vs NE: The Bills’ defense struggled to contain the Lions last week, but this week’s matchup against the Patriots could not be more different. Last week Drake Maye extended his interception streak to 6 games and failed to reach 20 points against a mid Cardinals defense. The outlook for turnovers and sacks is good here, especially if the Patriots elect to throw often in order to chase the points the Bills’ offense is sure to put up.
- ATL vs NYG: The Falcons’ defense was (tied for the ) #2 defense in fantasy last week with a safety, three turnovers and three blocked kicks against a hapless Raiders offense. The Giants under the leadership of Drew Lock are similarly terrible. Lock was downgraded to emergency third quarterback last week as he recovered from a heel injury, so we saw Tommy DeVito start and Tim Boyle take over following a concussion to DeVito. The Giants are awful, and susceptible to a competent pass rush like the Falcons, with any of these quarterbacks. Lock is probably the best of the three but that’s not saying much, and I expect him to start this week.
- IND vs TEN: Last week, the Titans benched Will Levis after a pick-six was his fourth turnover. Mason Rudolph did play better, throwing a couple of touchdowns, but had another interception of his own. Coach Brian Callahan said he’s going to decide over the next few days who to start in Week 16. Rudolph might not have as much disaster potential as Levis, but this is an awful offense either way.
- KC vs HOU: C.J. Stroud was able to get it done with a 20-point win over the Dolphins last week, but the Chiefs are a very different matchup. The second-year quarterback has failed to reach the highs of his rookie season, and continues to take sacks at a high rate with an average of 3.2 per game. The Chiefs are one of the best defenses in football and should be able to keep the scoring down and the sacks up this week.
- DET @ CHI: The Lions may have a million defensive players on IR, but they’re still equipped to handle a Bears team in free fall. The future still looks bright for Caleb Williams, but the present is pretty bad for a team that hasn’t seen the traditional recently-fired-coach bounce. Williams extended his no interceptions streak to 8 games, but in that same span the Bears are 0-8 and have only crossed the 20 point threshold once. Williams has taken an incredible 4.1 sacks per game so far, which puts him on pace for the third-highest sacks taken total of all time.
- MIN @ SEA: Geno Smith and the Seahawks scored a paltry 13 points against the Packers last week in the absence of star running back Kenneth Walker III, and now they’re facing a similarly good-but-not-great Vikings defense, who are in a tight race for the NFC North title and the #1 seed in the NFC. Smith has recorded good (for the defense) sack totals on an inconsistent basis, last week recording his 9th game with 3 or more. I expect a similar performance this week
- ARI @ CAR: Bryce Young had his worst game in quite a while last week, committing four turnovers (two interceptions and two fumbles) while taking a season-high 6 sacks – his first time over 2 sacks since Week 1. I don’t really expect to see that kind of sack total again, but you could do worse than betting into the 0-4 skid the Panthers are currently on.
- HOU @ KC: Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain last week, and is questionable for Week 16. It should go without saying that you should not start a defense against Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs, but the Texans could be viable if Carson Wentz ends up starting. Wentz was a superstar in his own right back in his days on the Eagles, but has not been that player for several years at this point. He might be better than your average backup quarterback, but he is still a backup on an offense that has not been explosive, even with the second-best quarterback of all time.
- CIN vs CLE: Jameis Winston‘s interception problem boiled over last week. He was benched after throwing a pick-six for his fourth turnover of the game early in the second half, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over. DTR wasn’t great either, throwing an interception of his own and seeing a 62-yard touchdown run by Jerome Ford as the Browns’ only points. The Browns have elected to keep Winston on the bench this week. They drafted Thompson-Robinson out of UCLA in the 5th round in 2023, and he’s seen limited playing time since with 3 starts last year. He hasn’t been good, recording just one touchdown and 7 interceptions in his career so far. The Bengals are a scary defense to use because they’re so bad in a real football sense, but they were able to hold on to 4 interceptions from the Titans last week, and should be a reasonable play against one of the worst offenses in the league led by their third-string quarterback.
Planning Ahead
The fantasy playoffs are the time of year that it’s actually reasonable to spend a bench spot on a defense, in order to lock down a good matchup in future weeks. To help with this I’ve been maintaining a google sheet with my analysis of each offense’s viability as a matchup for defenses, and a schedule grid. Here are some teams that I think are worth stashing (or using this week) with an eye towards the fantasy finals in Week 17.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have looked like the best defense in football lately. They get the Cowboys in Week 17, who are just an OK matchup but certainly viable for a defense this good. The Eagles also get the Giants in Week 18, if you’re in one of those leagues.
- The Los Angeles Chargers are also among the best defenses in the league, and they get a juicy matchup against the Patriots in Week 17, as well as the Raiders in Week 18.
- The New Orleans Saints get to face the Raiders in Week 17, who have been one of the most consistently good matchups this year.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a good matchup against the Jags this week, and will be viable again in Week 17 against the Saints. I don’t expect Derek Carr to return to action for the Saints this season, but if he does they would no longer be a good matchup.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have two good matchups, with the Raiders this week and the Titans in Week 17.
- The Indianapolis Colts have good matchups the rest of the way, with the Titans, Giants and Jags in that order for the last 3 weeks of the season.