The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
As we approach the holidays, DraftKings has gifted us with an 11-game slate and FanDuel has hooked us with a 12-game slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NFL Week 16 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix Jr. (QB – ATL) vs. Giants | $4,500 (DraftKings)
At first glance, it feels a little crazy to recommend a rookie quarterback getting his first start as a DFS value. To date, Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 38 scoreless yards on 3-of-5 passing. However, he is in a good matchup to shake the jitters and play some ball.
The Giants allow the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Over their last eight games, only one quarterback has failed to throw at least one touchdown against them. For the curious, it was Baker Mayfield in Week 12, but he scored a rushing touchdown in that game.
Penix is a low-cost GPP play, best used for multiple lineup entries. He offers a basement salary that allows for a more robust roster around him. For ranking purposes, he would be a mid-to-late QB2 with upside.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) vs. Rams | $7,300 (FanDuel)
It was a rocky and disappointing start to the season for the future Hall of Fame quarterback. However, Aaron Rodgers has quietly become (cheaply) fantasy-viable. In 14 games this season, he has finished as a QB2 or better in 12 of them and a QB1 in five of them. In his last three games, he has thrown for six touchdowns to only one interception and is averaging 271 passing yards per game. Strangely enough, he has also tallied 51 uncharacteristic rushing yards during that span.
The Rams allow the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. On average, they surrender 235.8 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per contest.
Rodgers is playing for his future, even if it is not with the Jets. In a good matchup with the weapons at his disposal, his potential ceiling exceeds his salary. Still, he is best used in GPP contests and better suited to those who roll out multiple entries.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) @ Seahawks | $6,400 (DraftKings)
Since contracting a rare mid-season case of fumble-itis, Aaron Jones appears to be on the mend. After laying the egg on the carpet four times over a three-game span, he appears to be applying more ball security. He has now gone two straight games without a fumble and is averaging 17.4 fantasy points over his last four games. Hopefully, he got that all out of his system.
The Seahawks allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. They have allowed an average of 81.3 rushing yards per contest over their last three games. Jones is less likely to lose touches if the game script goes negative, due to his involvement as a pass-catcher.
Jones has a projected roster percentage of sub-10%, making him viable in GPP contests and usable in cash games as well. For the salary, there is not a lot in the way of risk based on matchup, expected production and projected game script.
Alexander Mattison (RB – LV) vs. Jaguars | $5,600 (FanDuel)
This play is better suited to FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring format. Sincere McCormick landed on injured reserve (IR). Alexander Mattison immediately saw 80% of the rushing plays once McCormick left last week’s contest. Ameer Abdullah still holds value as the pass-catcher and on third-down plays. Mattison is expected to handle the early-down work and potentially goal-line duties as well.
The Jaguars allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs. They allow an average of 101.8 rushing yards and 0.9 rushing touchdowns per contest. Mattison can catch the football and is averaging 2.4 targets on a per-game basis, which does raise his floor slightly. Still, the bulk of the targets should be funneled to Abdullah.
Mattison is a Flex play for GPP contests who offers a decent floor in a plus-matchup.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) – vs. Vikings | $6,000 (DraftKings)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently the WR16 in PPR points per game. Over his last five games, he is averaging 85.2 receiving yards and has two scores. The sophomore receiver has solidified himself as the most reliable pass-catcher on his team, which is saying a lot when part of a trio that includes DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Vikings are the most friendly defense against opposing wide receivers. They allow the most fantasy points and the most receiving yards to the position. They also happen to have a very good offense, meaning these two teams could trade blows. The current over/under is 42.5 points with Minnesota favored by three.
Geno Smith has been cleared to play after leaving the game with an injury last week. Some light rain is currently forecasted, so players should monitor weather reports. Smith-Njigba represents the kind of high floor based on volume with some ceiling still present. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR) vs. Cardinals | $6,200 (FanDuel)
Xavier Leggete has already been ruled out for this week’s tilt versus the Cardinals. While that does create some target distribution elsewhere, the immediate beneficiary is 34-year-old journeyman Adam Thielen. Thielen’s target share since returning is over 25%, which leads the team. He is averaging 78.5 receiving yards and has scored once since his return to action.
The Cardinals allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points to receivers but are not immune to allowing some production to slot receivers that also line up outside from time to time. While not a great matchup on paper, the targets will be there for Thielen.
Thielen is a GPP play for multiple-entry players for this slate.
Tight Ends
Brenton Strange (TE – JAX) @ Raiders | $3,500 (DraftKings)
Brenton Strange has filled in admirably in the absence of Evan Engram. Last week, Strange reeled in 11 of his 12 targets for 73 receiving yards while playing on more than 80% of the offensive snaps. Mac Jones is no stranger to having a security blanket to target over the middle of the field. This resulted in a 26% target share for the solid backup tight end.
The Raiders allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. On average, they allow 64.9 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns on a per-game basis.
This is a plus-matchup paired with a rock-bottom salary. There is volatility with this play, though, so Strange is best utilized in GPP contests.
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) vs. Buccaneers | $5,300 (FanDuel)
Though far from the fantasy stalwart he operated as with Dak Prescott under center, Jake Ferguson still has DFS value in the right matchups. He has drawn 10 targets over his last two games.
The Buccanneers allow the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. On a per-game basis, they allow 69.6 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns to the position.
Ferguson is a touchdown-dependant tight end pick for this slate. He should be avoided in cash contests and utilized in GPPs for multi-entry players.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
