The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This week offers a 12-game slate (13 on FanDuel) with some unique roster construction options, some value shifts and some enticing matchups.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 15 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix (QB – DEN) vs. Colts | $6,300 (DraftKings)
Bo Nix is the QB10 in fantasy points per game (18) in his rookie season. He has thrown for the 11th-most touchdowns (17) and is ninth in rushing yards (304) among quarterbacks. He has not scored fewer than 14 fantasy points since Week 4. However, a recent detractor is his lack of rushing production, a trait that helped amplify his floor, over the last four games.
Nix and company draw a favorable matchup against the Colts this week. The Colts allow the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including an average of 246.5 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.
Nix has QB1 potential in a game that features a 44-point over/under. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) vs. Buccaneers | $7,500 (FanDuel)
Justin Herbert enters this week as the QB21 in fantasy points per game. Over his last seven games, he has finished as a QB1 five times. He has been plagued by drops over his last two games. It is also worth mentioning early that part of this play this week is dependent on the status of Ladd McConkey, who appears to be trending towards playing. On top of his ability as a typically accurate, strong-armed quarterback, he can also utilize his legs.
The Chargers host the Buccaneers this week. Tampa Bay allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. On average, they surrender 270.2 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns and 26.1 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
This game features a decent 45.5 over/under with the home team being favored by three. There will be scoring. As a result, there will be DFS production to be had. Herbert is a strong cash game play but might work even better in GPPs due to his expected low rostership percentage.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Cowboys | $6,500 (DraftKings)
Chuba Hubbard is the RB15 in fantasy points per game this season. He is the RB6 in rushing yards (1,011) and has eight rushing touchdowns to go with his healthy 4.7 yards per attempt average. Through 13 games, he has finished as an RB1 in seven of them. For redraft leagues, he has been one of the best draft values at the position this season. With Jonathon Brooks unfortunately out for the rest of the season due to injury, Hubbard will continue to maintain a high-volume workload.
The Panthers host the Cowboys this week in a game that is attractive for running backs on both sides. Dallas is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, including 240.5 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing touchdowns on a per-game basis.
Due to volume and cost, Hubbard will be along the chalkier side, so he is best used in cash contests for this slate.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) @ Cardinals | $6,600 (FanDuel)
It has been an up-and-down kind of season for Rhamondre Stevenson from a fantasy-scoring standpoint. He has displayed an RB5 ceiling and an RB81 floor. While the production has varied wildly, the workload has been consistent. He is averaging 17.5 opportunities per game. Over his 12 games played, he has had five QB1 finishes.
The Cardinals’ defense, specifically the pass rush and the secondary have improved throughout the season. However, they are still beatable from the ground attack. They currently allow the ninth-most fantasy points to be running backs. On average, they allow 104.8 rushing yards, 0.7 touchdowns and 39.2 receiving yards to opposing running backs.
This game features a 46.5 over/under with Arizona being favored. Stevenson is a capable pass-catcher but has ceded some of that work to Antonio Gibson. Due to this, it remains difficult to proclaim Stevenson’s skill set marginalizes game script. This play is volatile, but at cost, the volume and the matchup represent payoff potential. Stevenson is better suited to GPP contests as a safe-floor, high-upside play.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) @ Jaguars | $6,500 (DraftKings)
It has taken some time for Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson to mesh. Rodgers has been known to require a certain level of trust before providing the high-value targets (third-down, red zone, etc.) to receivers. Over his last six games played, Wilson has received seven red-zone targets and maintained a 25% target share. During that span, he is operating as a WR2 in fantasy points, has scored twice and has two games over 100 receiving yards.
The Jaguars allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They surrender an average of 175.2 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving touchdowns on a per-game basis.
Yes, Davante Adams is going to command the largest target share, but it also draws the most defensive attention. This is a potential smash spot for Wilson, who is currently only rostered in 7% of large-field entries. For players who use multiple lineups, Adams is $6,900. With a 40.5 over/under, there is no need to force either Wilson or Adams into lineups, but both represent a positive matchup, decent salary and low rostership. They are best utilized in GPPs.
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN) vs. Bengals | $6,000 (FanDuel)
The poster boy for wide receiver roller coaster is Calvin Ridley. With a ceiling of WR2 to a floor of WR102, his production has been erratic. Ridley cannot be blamed entirely as Will Levis/Mason Rudolph are not stalwarts of consistent production themselves.
Since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley has the benefit of being the primary read and is commanding a 27% target share over his last eight games. During that stretch he has managed to score only twice, meaning some positive regression in the department is due and potentially forthcoming.
The Bengals are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to the position and have surrendered seven receiving touchdowns over their last five games.
Between salary and matchup, Ridley is in the 20% range of ownership, making him viable in both cash and GPP contests, but better suited to cash.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) @ Panthers | $3,800 (DraftKings)
Cooper Rush is no Dak Prescott. With Rush under center, Jake Ferguson has struggled. The targets are there, but not every target is a good target. Still, Ferguson is handling a 19% target share and saw six targets last week. They only accounted for 32 scoreless yards, but the volume should not be ignored.
The Panthers allow the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. What they don’t allow in receiving yards, they give up in the end zone. They are allowing 59.4 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns on a per-game basis.
Ferguson is not a lock for a score with Rush under center, hence the volatility. He is better suited for GPP contests for this slate. The lower cost allows for a little extra money to be allocated to other positions.
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) @ Seahawks | $5,200 (FanDuel)
FanDuel’s salary structure occasionally has some anomalies that cause analysts to scratch their heads and mutter under their breath. Tucker Kraft is one such salary for this slate. Kraft is the TE10 in fantasy points per game. His salary is TE16 behind guys like Juwan Johnson and Noah Gray. Kraft has the second-most touchdowns among tight ends this season.
The analysis on this one will be short. Kraft has the second-most touchdowns and the eighth-most receiving yards among tight ends. The Seahawks allow 8.1 targets and 58.7 receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
Kraft is in a good spot to outperform his salary. He is usable in both contest formats.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
