The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This week offers a 10-game slate (11 on FanDuel) with some unique roster construction options, especially with so many key players on bye.
NFL Week 14 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Will Levis (QB – TEN) vs. Jaguars | $5,000 (DraftKings)
To be fair, this is a floor play with upside at Walmart movie-bin pricing. Just stick with me for a few sentences. Will Levis has been okay for fantasy purposes since returning to the lineup in Week 10. Since then, he has finished as the QB10, QB20, QB13 and QB20. During that stretch, he is averaging 17.2 fantasy points per contest, good enough for a QB21 ranking. Those games were mostly against tougher defenses, like the L.A. Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders. This week, Levis is gifted the best matchup he has faced all season in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars allow the most fantasy production to quarterbacks. They allow the most passing yards (284.2) and are tied for the most passing touchdowns (2.0) on a per-game basis.
Levis has been a QB2 over his last four games but against much tougher defenses. This is an opportunity for him to have the kind of game that far exceeds his cost and allows for a more robust roster construction for the skill position players. He should only be rostered in GPP contests due to the volatility he represents.
Aidan O’Connell (QB – LV) @ Buccaneers | $6,700 (FanDuel)
Yes, it is admittable that the quarterback plays this week are the longshots of the group for this slate. However, as previously mentioned, it opens the budget for skill position players to take the floor in positive matchups at cost.
Aidan O’Connell lit it up last week against the Kansas City Chiefs to the tune of 340 passing yards and two touchdowns. He finished as the QB13 overall in that matchup.
Outside of Jacksonville, Tampa Bay is the most favorable matchup for quarterbacks. They allow the second-most fantasy points to the position.
We have seen enough of Aidan O’Connell to know consistency is not a close friend. This makes him more of a GPP play as opposed to a cash game option. However, it is a respectable 46-point over/under on a game that could go back and forth.
Running Backs
Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF) vs. Bears | $5,400 (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey‘s return to football was shortlived and Jordan Mason exited the same game with what would end up being a move to injured reserve (IR) as well. The next man up in the typically productive running back role is rookie Isaac Guerendo. Though limited in work, he has been productive with his touches this season, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. With the mantle newly anointed, Guerendo’s salary skyrocketed $1,400 but is still within the realm of being a value play and $500 less than what Mason’s would have been.
With a small sample size to analyze, the next thing to look at is the matchup. While the Bears’ secondary is a force to be reckoned with, their front seven can be beaten on the ground. They are currently allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is typically valuable for fantasy purposes. Guerendo is expected to handle the bulk of the touches from the running back position, making him a value at cost this week. He will be a popular DFS option this week, suiting him more to cash games, but he is usable in both contest formats.
Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA) @ Cardinals | $5,300 (FanDuel)
Between bye weeks and injuries, the pool of startable running backs for fantasy purposes has taken some twists and turns. At the time of this writing, Ken Walker is truly questionable to suit up and play.
Let’s take a look at the splits without Walker in the lineup:
| Per Game Stats | In Split | Out of Split |
| Rushing Attempts | 4.9 | 16.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 20.5 | 59 |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Targets | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| Receptions | 2 | 3.3 |
| Receiving yards | 12.5 | 24.3 |
| Receiving Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Half-PPR points | 5.1 | 15.9 |
If Walker does not suit up or is limited enough to see a reduction in snaps, Zach Charbonnet becomes a viable starter for fantasy purposes.
The Cardinals are middle of the road against the position. Charbonnet has some intrigue due to his usage in the receiving game as well.
With a mediocre matchup and an expected higher volume against the salary, Charbonnet is in play cash contests. He is also expected to have a higher roster percentage based on those factors, favoring cash over GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL) @ Vikings | $5,500 (DraftKings)
Darnell Mooney has cemented himself as the No. 2 WR in the Falcons’ offense. He is quietly the WR34 in fantasy points per game. He is currently the WR7 in deep targets this season. He has put together back-to-back games that were disappointing from a production standpoint. In all fairness, those matchups came against the Denver Broncos (12th-most difficult) and the L.A. Chargers (fifth-most difficult) pass defenses. Despite the difficulty of the matchups, Mooney drew a combined 10 targets over those two games.
This week, Mooney draws a far more favorable coverage against the Vikings. They are allowing the second-most fantasy points, 182.6 receiving yards and 1.2 touchdowns to wide receivers on a per-game basis. This game features a 45.5 over/under and a potential bounce-back for Kirk Cousins, who did his best Nathan Peterman impression last week against the Chargers.
Mooney has a sub-5% percent expected roster percentage for this slate, making him viable in both cash and GPP contests, but better in GPPs.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN) vs. Falcons | $6,000 (FanDuel)
Staying in that same game, Jordan Addison is also a good value play this week. Over his last five games, Addison is averaging 6.6 targets, 68.8 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game. He is currently the WR36 in points per game. While defenses try to slow down Justin Jefferson, Addison is the beneficiary of less defensive attention.
The Falcons allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game. They are surrendering an average of 151.6 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns per contest. With the decent over/under and both teams expected to put up points, pieces of both offenses should be in play for this slate.
Addison is better suited to GPP contests but offers enough of a floor to be usable in cash games.
Tight Ends
Grant Calcaterra (TE – PHI) vs. Panthers | $3,500 (DraftKings)
With Dallas Goedert headed to IR, Grant Calcaterra is not just in the tight end streaming conversation, he represents that one-off play that could be the difference maker in larger field GPP contests. During a stretch without Goedert, Calcaterra had an 82% route participation and one TE1 finish.
The Panthers allow the most fantasy points to tight ends. They also allow an average of 63 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position.
Calcaterra does not possess the weekly floor to safely roster him in cash lineups. He is better suited in GPP contests that allow multiple lineups.
Cade Otton (TE – TB) vs. Raiders | $5,600 (FanDuel)
Cade Otton is quietly having himself a season. Granted, some of his volume has come due to Chris Godwin being sidelined. That being said, Otton has made the most of it. He is the TE7 in fantasy points per game and third in red-zone targets among tight ends. Part of his salary suppression has been his lack of production over the last three games. He finished as the TE18, TE23 and TE33 respectively over those contests.
Otton and the Bucs draw a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allow the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. They are surrendering the second-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Otton is not entirely risk-averse but maintains enough of a target share to be usable in cash contests. He is better suited for GPP contests for this slate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
