The fantasy football season seems to fly by faster with every passing year. It feels like just yesterday we were hotly debating team backfield dynamics, target distributions, late-round sleepers, etc. A mere few months later, we find ourselves in the final week of the fantasy football playoffs. With a painfully long offseason ahead, managers should savor every remaining moment of the game we all love.
From a strategic standpoint, managers who have successfully made their way to the Week 17 finals have done an excellent job in assessing player trends and making sound decisions based on these assessments. They’ve acknowledged when a player was due for positive/negative regression or when it was time to cut their losses with a given asset.
n the most important matchup of the season, it remains important to keep a close eye on how each player has fared over the past month or so. Many of these tightly contested playoff matchups come down to one fantasy start sit decision. In what follows, I’ll help contextualize some of these important decisions by outlining players who have seen a performance-based shift in value. In each case, I’ll provide my assessment of whether this asset can be trusted in this week’s championship showdown.
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Fantasy Football Risers
After Chris Godwin suffered a devastating ankle injury in Week 7, many wondered who would inherit the veteran receiver’s massive target share. Speculative waiver wire bids were placed on the likes of Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer and rookie Jalen McMillan. None of the aforementioned wide receivers were able to make an immediate impact in Godwin’s absence. However, McMillan has recently emerged as a reliable target in the Buccaneers’ offense. The rookie has had an impressive stretch lately, compiling a minimum of 14.2 half-PPR fantasy points in three consecutive contests.
What’s most encouraging about McMillan’s recent performances is the fact he’s seen consistent volume. He’s earned a minimum of six targets in three consecutive games and appears to have usurped tight end Cade Otton in the Bucs’ pass-catching depth chart. Otton has seen a drastic decline in his involvement as of late, averaging an uninspiring 4.25 targets per game since Week 12. Liam Coen’s system has made a concerted effort to employ McMillan as the secondary pass-catcher behind future Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans.
While his rookie season certainly got off to a slow start, McMillan is an undeniably talented player. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he averaged an impressive 2.30 yards per route run during his final season with the Washington Huskies in college. Tampa Bay invested third-round draft capital on the highly-touted wide receiver in the hopes he’d eventually replace Godwin and/or Evans. He’s already shown to be more than capable of stepping into a bigger role.
McMillan has been thrust into a featured role in one of the league’s more exciting offenses. His volume and touchdown upside remains quite high, making him a viable WR3/Flex fantasy start sit option.
In retrospect, the fantasy football community should have perhaps expected Davante Adams to re-emerge as a fantasy football superstar once he reunited with longtime teammate Aaron Rodgers. The two have perennially had an excellent rapport with one another. Despite being at the tail end of their respective careers, they continue to exhibit chemistry weekly. The veteran wideout has scored a minimum of 15.1 half-PPR fantasy points in four consecutive contests.
The worry surrounding Adams’ fantasy value was the decrease in efficiency he had been showing over the past couple of years. Many questioned whether the superstar was still effective enough to remain in the upper echelons of fantasy football wide receivers. However, PFF metrics suggest he’s still an excellent pass-catcher. Since his midseason move to the Jets, he’s averaged 2.19 yards per route run and 6.5 yards after catch per reception. These tallies are both above his career averages.
Much to the dismay of Garrett Wilson’s fantasy managers, Adams’ elite target share suggests he’s earned the No. 1 WR role in the Jets’ offense. He’s averaged an absurd 11.5 targets per game since Week 13. The Jets’ running game, spearheaded by the likes of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, has struggled mightily for the entire 2024 season. The team will remain inclined to pass the ball at a relatively high rate, which bodes well for Adams’ target volume.
All told, Adams has proven he’s still one of the league’s best sure-handed route-runners. He’ll continue to earn targets at an astounding rate with Rodgers under center. He should be seen as a rock-solid WR1 for the fantasy football finals.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Over the years, Najee Harris’ fantasy managers have had to deal with the constant threat of Jaylen Warren taking over the Steelers’ running back room. Warren has consistently been the more explosive playmaker in this backfield. These concerns seemed to materialize in the Steelers’ Week 16 loss to the Ravens, during which Warren earned more carries, receptions and scrimmage yards than his running mate. This was yet another disappointing performance from Harris, who has now failed to surpass 11.3 half-PPR fantasy points in six of the past seven contests.
Harris has failed to improve upon the inefficiencies that have plagued him over the years. Per PFF, Warren has outperformed the latter in terms of yards after contact per carry and yards per carry. From a receiving standpoint, Warren has also been far more impressive. His receiving grade, yards per route run and catch rate are all greater than Harris’ respective tallies. These efficiency metrics suggest Warren’s increase in volume has been long overdue.
The Steelers face the Kansas City Chiefs in their penultimate game of the NFL season. The Chiefs, who are the absolute worst matchup for opposing running backs, will likely be able to neutralize Harris’ between-the-tackles running. In what will likely be a pass-heavy game script for the Steelers, I’d expect yet another volume distribution that skews heavily in Warren’s favor. We’ve seen Harris’ susceptibility to poor game scripts in recent matchups against the Eagles and the Ravens.
The veteran running back has scored 2.6 and 4.2 fantasy points in these games, respectively. This week’s contest with the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs is likely to play out in a very similar vein. Managers should avoid starting Najee Harris at all costs.
Tony Pollard spent the majority of the 2024 season as the Titans’ unquestioned workhorse back. With a slew of injuries for Tyjae Spears and an overall lack of playmakers in this offense, Pollard quickly became a focal point in Tennessee’s system. Despite this, Pollard hasn’t quite been able to make the absolute most of this opportunity. He’s currently on pace for a pedestrian RB19 finish in half-PPR formats. What’s more, Spears has started to carve into Pollard’s workload, putting the veteran’s fantasy viability in question.
From an efficiency standpoint, Pollard has been underwhelming in 2024. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, he currently ranks 29th in elusive rating and 18th in missed tackles forced, per PFF. What’s more, his receiving metrics have been considerably worse. According to PFF, he’s earned a receiving grade of 52.7 and has averaged 0.84 yards per route run. Considering Spears profiles as an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield, it’s safe to assume Pollard won’t be seeing much work through the air from here on out.
Spears’ involvement has skyrocketed recently. He’s recorded a minimum of 10 touches and 20.1 half-PPR fantasy points in two consecutive contests. Given how well Spears has fared with this increase in opportunity, it would appear as though he’s earned a consistent role in this offense.
While Pollard is by no means an unstartable fantasy asset, managers should certainly temper expectations as he continues to see a decrease in volume. He should be seen as a high-end RB3 against the Jaguars this week.
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