One of football’s most beloved traditions is the suite of games fans are treated to on Thanksgiving. This year’s festivities included several tightly-contested inter-divisional matchups, including the Bears-Lions, Cowboys-Giants and Chiefs-Raiders. The Chiefs and Lions continued their rampant push toward the NFL playoffs while the Giants and Bears struggled to snap their respective losing streaks. Alongside these games, a full slate of Sunday afternoon matchups made for an exhilarating weekend for fantasy football enthusiasts.
Simply put, managers can no longer afford to make mistakes at this juncture of the fantasy football season. Managers vying for the final remaining playoff spots will need to pay very close attention to player trends and outcomes. After all, fantasy football championships often hinge on last-minute fantasy start sit decisions.
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Several players’ performances particularly stood out from Week 13. For better or for worse, these players’ output deviated significantly from weekly projections, leaving managers perplexed about their future outlooks. In what follows, I’ll outline the players that will see a shift in perceived value in the coming weeks. In each case, I’ll assess whether these performances are mere outliers or indicators of things to come.
NFL Players Trending Up & Down
Fantasy Football Risers
Fantasy managers were well aware that the departure of superstar WR Davante Adams would result in an increase in production for the ancillary pieces in the Raiders’ offense. That being said, optimism surrounding Jakobi Meyers’ fantasy value remained tempered. With the persistent offensive struggles in Las Vegas, fantasy managers simply did not see a path for consistent production in this system. Regardless, Meyers has been the pillar of consistency ever since he inherited the No. 1 WR role. He’s produced a minimum of 12.7 half-PPR fantasy points in four of his last five games.
One can argue Meyers has continuously been an under-appreciated fantasy asset throughout his career. Despite playing in several underwhelming offenses with sub-par QB play, he’s managed to produce a minimum of 67 receptions and 800 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. He’s well on pace to surpass these thresholds once again in 2024. Pro Football Focus (PFF) efficiency metrics shed further light on how effective Meyers is as a consistent separator. He currently averages 1.73 yards per route run and has earned a 76.8 receiving grade for his efforts.
Aside from superstar TE Brock Bowers, Meyers’ competition for targets is very minimal. Second-year WR Tre Tucker, who currently boasts a PFF receiving grade of 59.3, has struggled to make the sophomore leap Raiders fans were hoping for. The likes of Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah and Michael Mayer do not pose realistic threats to Meyers’ volume either.
Meyers’ intriguing blend of efficiency and volume should garner plenty of attention from the fantasy football community. If he’s able to establish a solid rapport with Aidan O’Connell down the stretch, he may prove to be a very valuable fantasy asset. For the time being, he should be conservatively ranked as a WR3/Flex option.
Over the offseason, Bucky Irving was identified as an intriguing late-round handcuff who could provide excellent value in the event of a Rachaad White injury. Given White’s featured role in past iterations of the Tampa Bay offense, a rookie was unlikely to carve a significant role in this backfield. Despite these concerns, Irving has usurped White as the Buccaneers’ No. 1 RB and looks to be a bona fide playmaker in the NFL. In the team’s win against the Panthers, he earned 15 more touches than his running mate.
Irving’s promotion as the team’s workhorse back has been long overdue. Among running backs with at least 60 carries, he currently ranks first in elusive rating, second in yards after contact per attempt and fourth in yards per carry (PFF). He’s been a consistent source of explosive plays for a Buccaneers offense firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Bucky Irving big run!
????: #TBvsCAR on FOX
????: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/4VSdL1yzfO— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024
The rookie has now scored a minimum of 24.2 half-PPR fantasy points in consecutive contests and is showing no signs of slowing down. Tampa Bay will be carrying its offensive momentum into a slew of weaker defensive matchups, including the Raiders, Panthers and Cowboys. Irving’s undeniable talent, coupled with his stranglehold on the touches in this backfield, will make him an elite fantasy asset for the remainder of the season. He should be viewed as a lower-end RB1.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Breece Hall, selected by many in the early first round of fantasy drafts, has proven to be a calamitous disappointment. He’s now failed to surpass 9.5 half-PPR fantasy points on five different occasions this season. Whether it’s the knee injury, the persistent offensive struggles in New York or the emergence of rookie RB Braelon Allen, Breece Hall simply hasn’t lived up to expectations.
Hall’s efficiency metrics are quite concerning. Per PFF, he ranks 47th in rushing grade and 31st in elusive rating among backs with at least 60 carries. In years past, Hall’s breakaway speed made him a constant threat to produce explosive plays. This hasn’t translated to 2024.
Given the Jets’ woeful 3-9 record, the team has no incentive to put its best foot forward on offense. With Breece’s lingering knee issues, the team may opt to shut him down for the remainder of the season. At any rate, rookie Allen has performed admirably as Hall’s backup. He’s out-produced the starter in terms of PFF run grade. It’s very plausible the Jets will look to invest in their younger pieces down the stretch of what’s become a lost season.
Breece Hall –
Looks like he’s favoring his right knee.
He entered this game with “knee soreness” from their Wk11 game. Would be surprised if he continues to play if he’s limping like this into halftime.Note: his prior ACL was to his Left knee. pic.twitter.com/hV86mq56o0
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) December 1, 2024
It’s going from bad to worse in New York. For Breece Hall managers, this simply indicates that the return on investment won’t be nearly as valuable as we would have originally hoped for. Nevertheless, Breece should still be started as a weekly RB2. It’ll be important to monitor the reports about the knee ailment as we head towards the fantasy football playoffs.
A touchdown saved what would have been a disastrous outing for Aaron Jones in Week 13. Jones had a positive start to his tenure as a Minnesota Viking, performing as the half-PPR RB10 from Weeks 1-5. He’s nevertheless failed to carry this momentum into the second half of the season. He’s only managed to surpass 11.1 fantasy points once over his past six contests. With inefficiencies and ball security issues starting to become a recurring theme, might Aaron Jones be headed toward a decrease in volume?
Among rushers with at least 60 carries, Jones ranks 31st in run grade and 39th in elusive rating (PFF). He’s also lost a fumble in three consecutive contests. Head coach Kevin O’Connell grew impatient with Jones’ turnovers in Week 13 and subsequently benched the veteran back. As a result, backup RB Cam Akers saw an increase in volume. Akers has been a solid contributor for the Vikings thus far, averaging 2.64 yards after contact per attempt and forcing eight missed tackles, per PFF. Should Jones’ struggles persist, Akers will be primed for a more consistent role in this offense.
As a whole, the Vikings’ offense is out of sorts at the moment. The team has failed to score more than 23 points in five of their past six contests. This has also had a trickle-down effect on the likes of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison. Fantasy managers will hope this system can get back on track in the coming weeks. Given O’Connell’s pedigree of offensive acumen, I’d endorse a fair bit of patience with this unit.
Jones has certainly struggled as of late. That said, the veteran has been a consistent producer at the NFL level. He’ll bounce back from this underwhelming stretch of games in the coming weeks. He should be ranked as a mid-tier RB2 for the foreseeable future.
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