NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 16 (2024 Fantasy Football)

The last three weeks of the NFL regular season are here. Playoff contending fantasy managers are in survive and advance mode. Eliminated teams are hopeful for 2025. Either way, there are edges to be found taking a close look at how NFL offenses are closing the season.

Below is the week 16 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.

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*For more details on EPA, click here. The table is sorted by EPA/play.

NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency

Offenses Trending Up

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are fighting off elimination from the NFL postseason after winning consecutive games. Cincinnati carries a top five point total (399) and red zone conversion rate (68.1%). They will face the Browns in a divisional matchup in week 16.

The story of the Bengals’ offense is Joe Burrow and the passing attack. Cincinnati is third overall in pass rate (64.4%) and leads the NFL in passing yardage per game (271.4). Burrow’s 36 touchdown throws and 3,977 passing yards are tops at his position. They make him the fantasy QB4 behind three players who have combined for 28 rushing touchdowns. Burrow has only 35 rushing attempts all season. The most impressive piece of the star QB’s campaign is his accuracy. Burrow is only 29th among qualified passers in average target separation (3.3), but holds the second-highest completion rate (68.5%) of his career. He is on pace for a new career high in touchdown throws and is arguably the best pocket passer in the league. Burrow will be in the height of his prime ahead of the 2025 season.

Ja’Marr Chase is having a sensational year amidst contract negotiations. The fantasy WR1 has been solid gold for his managers, leading amon-Ra St Brown (WR2) by nearly 70 fantasy points. Chase has already set a new career high in touchdown catches (15) and his catch rate (75.6%) is up significantly from his first three seasons. Cincinnati is fourth overall in EPA/pass (0.2), built from the league-leading 102 receptions on 135 targets from Chase. Joe Burrow’s passer rating is 127.2 when targeting him this season, a citable metric with this type of volume. With a massive contract extension on the way, Chase is more than trustworthy at the top of the first round in fantasy drafts next summer. He has 1,413 receiving yards through 14 games this season.

The Bengals have been far less productive on the ground. Cincinnati is tied for 12th in EPA/run (-0.06) and ranks only 30th in rushing yardage per game (91.1). Chase Brown has taken over as the featured RB and provided fantasy value with 832 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He has added 47 receptions in the passing game. Brown’s catch total ranks fifth at RB this year pulling him to fantasy RB10 status. He looks to be a valuable pick out of the RB pool for fantasy managers in upcoming seasons.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 10-4 and jousting for playoff seeding in the NFC North. Green Bay holds the fourth-best point differential in the NFL (+92) and ranks 31st in sacks allowed (16).

Matt LaFleur and the Packers love to run the football. They are second in run rate (51.2%) this season and tied for fourth in rushing yardage per game (144.4). Their efficiency on the ground is down due to a lower success rate (40.9%), but they still rank 11th in EPA/run(-0.03). This has brought high volume usage for Josh Jacobs, the fantasy RB4. Jacobs is third at RB in rushing yardage (1147) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (12). He has been the most valuable fantasy RB over the last four weeks, a stretch that has included eight trips to the end zone. Jacobs will be the focal point of this offense as the season closes.

Green Bay is tied for sixth in the NFL in EPA/pass (0.09). Jordan Love has not been as prolific as he was in 2023, but the low volume is boosting his team’s efficiency through the air. The Packers are 31st in passing plays run (410) with Love ranking 23rd among qualified passers in completion rate (63.7%). He is the fantasy QB17 after missing two games early on. Love has 23 touchdown throws against 11 interceptions and is coming on strong in the second half of the year. Since week 9, he has eight touchdown throws to only two picks and has gone over 200 yards in five of those six games. He is 10th at QB in fantasy points per game (17.1) and will face a friendly secondary from the Saints in week 16.

The distribution from Love to his pass catchers remains balanced for the Packers. Jayden Reed has been the most productive for fantasy managers with 727 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Tucker Kraft is the fantasy TE7 and leads the team in touchdown catches (7). Kraft’s red zone usage is notable, he is third at TE in touchdowns and yardage (103) inside the 20 this year. This is ideal usage for a low cost TE in fantasy drafts.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have scored at least 30 points in every game they’ve played since October 14th. Buffalo ranks second in scoring (31.8) and EPA/play (0.17) after hanging 48 points on the Lions last Sunday.

Josh Allen is the most physical dual-threat QB the NFL has seen. Buffalo ranks first in EPA/run (0.14) and third in EPA/pass (0.2) due to Allen’s ability to do both. The fantasy QB2 is approaching 3,400 yards through the air with 25 touchdown throws. He has added nearly 500 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground along with the league’s highest rushing success rate (62.6%). There are no gaps in Allen’s fantasy impact and he is playing more efficiently than ever. He has a career-low five interceptions, an improvement that has driven this offense to the lowest turnover total (7) in the NFL. Josh Allen is feasibly the best fantasy QB over the last three seasons and that will not change with his performance in 2024.

The flex production from the Bills is concentrated with James Cook on the ground and Khalil Shakir through the air. Cook is the fantasy RB11, but is tied with Derrick Henry for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (13). Cook’s yardage total (828) is suppressed by what Allen can do with his legs, but he is a solid RB2 with his nose for the end zone.

Shakir is the fantasy WR26, but ranks second among qualified WRs in catch rate (80.7%). He is particularly valuable in PPR formats, ranking 12th in receptions at his position. Shakir’s low touchdown total (4) is keeping him out of the top 15 fantasy WRs. He is an interesting watch for fantasy managers in the future and will set career highs in nearly every receiving category this season.

Offenses Trending Down

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were kicked out of their playoff spot on Sunday night after losing to the Packers 30-13. Seattle is tied for third in sacks allowed (47) and carries a top 10 turnover total (21). They will face the 12-2 Vikings on Sunday.

Seattle has run one of the most pass-happy offenses all season. They are fifth in pass rate (63.2%) but are only 20th in EPA/pass (-0.08). Geno Smith has seen plenty of pressure. He is 10th at his position in QB pressure rate faced (36.9%) and has thrown only 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Only Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins have thrown more picks and both have higher touchdown totals. All things considered, Smith’s completion rate (69.9%) is excellent. He is fifth overall at QB in the category. The throwing volume his team needs is dragging down his efficiency due to unreliable execution in the run game. Smith is the fantasy QB16, but has been a different player on Seattle’s trips to the red zone. He is averaging only 2.7 fantasy points per game with a league-leading five interceptions inside the 20. Smith will be nursing a knee injury in preparation for week 16.

The run game in Seattle is inefficient. The Seahawks are tied for 24th in EPA/run (-0.11) and are 28th in rushing yardage per game (94.3). They have finished more of their drives on the ground with the fifth most rushing touchdowns (17), but neither Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet are inside the top 20 for fantasy managers at RB. The Seahawks are 29th in total running plays (319) and the low volume is a serious headwind for both of these players. Seattle also lacks explosive plays out of the backfield. They are stuffed at the second highest rate in the NFL (22.3%) and rank 22nd in runs over 10 yards.

Jaxon-Smith Njigba is breaking out in his second season. He is the fantasy WR7 with 994 receiving yards and five touchdowns. His volume separates him from DK Metcalf on this team. JSN rankls fifth in receptions (85) at WR this season and ninth in catch rate (74.6%). Due to Seattle’s inefficiency throwing, the fantasy production is isolated with Smith-Nijigba. Metcalf is undoubtedly having his least productive season with only three touchdowns on 57 total receptions. As the fantasy WR35, Metcalf is multiple rounds behind his preseason ADP and his role has shrunk under a new coaching staff.

Chicago Bears

The Bears are losers of eight straight and have scored a total of 25 points over their last two games. Things will not get any easier on Sunday as they face the Lions. Chicago is tied for first in the NFL in sacks allowed (58) and ranks 24th in EPA/play (-0.12).

Caleb Williams‘ rookie season has been inefficient. The top overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft ranks 29th among qualified passers in completion rate (61.9%) and 31st in total pass EPA (-65.2). Chicago’s 4.8 passing yards per play has made for inconsistent fantasy production from Williams, the fantasy QB14. The Bears must find a way to limit their sacks. Williams has limited his interception total (5) while ranking seventh overall in attempts (465) this year. He is not throwing the ball away, but the pressure is killing his accuracy and moving this unit backwards consistently. Williams is sixth at QB in pressure rate faced (37.9%).

As odd as it may seem, the Bears have produced three top 50 fantasy WRs in 2024. DJ Moore is the fantasy WR19 with 76 receptions, 758 yards and five touchdowns. The Bears are struggling to work the ball down the field. Moore is pacing for his lowest yards per reception average of his career (10.0). Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze come in at WR38 and WR45, respectively. All of these players will be capped until Williams has the time to deliver the ball accurately further down the field.

Chicago has been better on the ground. They are tied for 13th in EPA/run (-0.06), which is partly attributed to a low run rate (41.0%). D’Andre Swift is the fantasy RB19 and averaging only 3.9 yards per attempt. This offense must be rebuilt from the inside out to allow its skill players to flourish.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns did not escape single digits in their 21-7 loss last week to the Chiefs. Cleveland holds the fifth-worst point differential in the league (-117) and will turn to third string QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Bengals this week.

The Browns are bottom-dwellers in EPA/play (-0.21) and scoring (17.1). They are also tied for first in sacks allowed (58) and are third in total turnovers (27). The passing game has been atrocious, Cleveland is 32nd in EPA/pass (-0.27) and averaging only 5 yards per attempt on the season. Dehsaun Watson was potentially the most inefficient QB league-wide in his time on the field this year. Jameis Winston barely threw more touchdowns (13) than interceptions (12) and Thompson-Robinson is 15-for-34 throwing this season. Cleveland has not been great in pass protection, but 11 teams allow QB pressure at a higher rate than they do. There is a serious vacancy in the Dawg Pound for the sport’s most important position.

There are a few bright spots with respect to flex production in Cleveland this year. Jerry Jeudy is having his best season as a pro. The fantasy WR10 is over the 1,000 yard mark with four touchdowns. Jeudy is a top 10 WR in total receiving EPA (+42.4) and 14th at his position in yards per reception (15.0). Whatever this scheme is planning for Jeudy is working and his ceiling would improve with better QB play. David Njoku is the TE12, hauling in five touchdowns. He ranks fourth at TE in fantasy points per game (10.6). This will be his second consecutive season finishing in the top 10 in that category.

Between injuries and inefficiency, Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford have faded from the fantasy football landscape. The Browns are tied for 19th in EPA/run (-0.08) and rank 27th in runs over 10 yards. With no big plays and limited volume, neither of these Browns RBs are inside the top 25 at the position this season for fantasy managers.

Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-15)