The fantasy postseason is either underway or set to kick off this week in most season-long formats. Small changes in lineups can make the difference in a fantasy playoff run or early ouster. For those looking ahead to next season, the offensive trends late in the year can inform draft preparations for next summer.
Below is the Week 15 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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*For more details on expected points added (EPA), click here. The table at the bottom of this article is sorted by EPA/play.
NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency
Offenses Trending Up
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams recorded an impressive win against the Bills in Week 14. They scored 44 points on 457 total yards and are now tied for 11th in the NFL in EPA/play (0). Los Angeles will travel up the coast to face the 49ers on Thursday night.
The Rams have been effective in throwing the ball this season. They are a top-10 team in passing yardage per game (237.7) and 12th overall in EPA/pass (0.04). Matthew Stafford is having one of his more accurate campaigns, but the injuries to his receiving corps limited his fantasy production early in the year. He is the fantasy QB16 with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Ten of those scores came in the last four games, a stretch in which Stafford has thrown zero interceptions. Stafford and this offense are on fire in the red zone. After Week 10, they were 31st in red zone efficiency, they now rank 13th (57.1%). Stafford’s hot hand will have favorable matchups in the back end of the fantasy playoffs against the Jets and the Cardinals in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
As anticipated, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua lead the Rams’ pass-catchers in fantasy production. Kupp has scored more fantasy points but by a thin margin. Nacua has been incredibly efficient. He is ninth overall at receiver this season in receiving EPA (+44.1) and his catch rate (73.0%) has increased from his stellar rookie year. Nacua has a chance to catch Kupp in fantasy scoring before the season’s end.
If it weren’t for his injuries, he would be a top-five fantasy wide receiver this year. Demarcus Robinson is the Rams’ leader in touchdown catches (seven). He has scored six of them in the last seven games; DFS players could toss him into a lineup.
The Rams’ run game offers mid-level efficiency. Its EPA/run (-0.06) ranks 16th and it is only 25th in rushing yardage per game (103.0). Despite this, Kyren Williams has stayed inside the top 10 at running back all season. Williams has now scored at least 12 touchdowns on the ground in each season as a full-time starter. He is trustworthy enough to set the baseline at running back for managers ahead of 2025.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings find themselves in second place in the NFC North, with an 11-2 record. Minnesota has won six straight and hung 42 points on the Falcons last week. They were a perfect 4-for-4 in the red zone.
Sam Darnold is on a similar tear as Stafford. Ahead of Week 11, the Vikings were tied for 14th in EPA/pass. They are now seventh (0.06) overall. Darnold’s 28 touchdowns tie him for third in the category. He carries a top-10 completion rate (68.4%) to go with it. He has not thrown an interception since November 10th. His 11 touchdown throws since then have awarded him fantasy QB7 status.
2024 has been a coming-out party for Darnold. He is eviscerating his previous career highs in every notable statistical category. The offseason will be interesting for Minnesota’s quarterback room in 2024. If this offense is permanently turned over to Darnold, he’s likely to offer plus value against his preseason average draft position (ADP) in 2025.
Minnesota has one of the few rosters in the league that has a truly elite wide receiver. Justin Jefferson is the fantasy WR2 with 1,170 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. If it weren’t for Ja’Marr Chase‘s outlying fantasy season, Jefferson would be competing for his second overall WR1 finish in the last three years.
Jefferson has been arguably the most trustworthy pick in fantasy football since he was selected 22nd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Jordan Addison is having a respectable sophomore season. He is averaging 16.1 yards per catch with seven touchdowns of his own. Addison is the fantasy WR16. Darnold carries a passer rating of 130.9 on 63 targets to Addison this year.
Running the ball is not Minnesota’s strength. They rank 22nd in EPA/run (-0.09) and rushing yardage per game (113.2). Aaron Jones has offered fantasy managers value this year nonetheless. He is 12th in total attempts (197) with four rushing touchdowns and two scores through the air. The catch with Jones has been ball security. He has fumbled five times this season, losing three of them. He is a solid fantasy RB2, but at 30 years old, his fantasy future is up in the air.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have won three of their last four games, scoring over 30 points in two of them. Miami is now inside the top 10 in red-zone efficiency (58.5%) and continues to limit turnovers with only 13 on the season.
The Dolphins lead with their passing game, and rightfully so. Their EPA/pass (0.05) is 10th in the league. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completion rate (73.8%) in his nine games played. Tagovailoa’s passer rating (107.4) also ranks fifth among qualified quarterbacks. He has thrown 17 touchdowns to only four interceptions. His Week 2 concussion railroaded the Dolphins’ season, but Tagovailoa has maintained the production fantasy managers are accustomed to when available.
Tagovailoa is averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game, and doing so efficiently. He is third at the position in EPA/dropback (0.21) and has thrown only one interception since he was injured. He should not be held accountable for his fantasy QB21 standing ahead of the 2025 draft season.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have performed well below their preseason ADPs this year, while TE Jonnu Smith has produced well above his. For a stretch, these three had Tyler Huntley, Tim Boyle and Skylar Thompson calling signals.
Hill is an exceptional talent in the middle of his least productive campaign since 2016. All things considered, he leads Miami in targets (95), receptions (65) and receiving yardage (769). Hill has managed fantasy WR14 status, a testament to his impact on lineups at full strength. His last two outings yielded 198 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Waddle has logged the second-highest catch rate (75.0%) of his career this season but has found the end zone only twice. His yards after catch (YAC) total (233) is down noticeably as well and he will need to build on his Week 14 performance that included 12 targets and 99 receiving yards.
Smith is the fantasy TE4 with 692 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He is having a career season and seems to fit well in Miami. He will return to South Beach in 2025.
The Dolphins have had little success running the ball in 2024. They are a bottom-three team in EPA/rush (-0.25) and rushing yards per play (3.9). Luckily for managers who drafted De’Von Achane, he is the most effective receiving running back in the league. Achane leads his position in receiving touchdowns (six) and trails Alvin Kamara by only 11 yards for the lead in receiving yardage. Achane has a monster ceiling in 2025 if the Dolphins can stay healthy and run the ball better. He is the fantasy RB8 with a chance to break into the top five before the playoffs conclude.
Offenses Trending Down
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have lost four straight and officially surrendered their lead in the NFC South to the Buccaneers on Sunday. Atlanta has recorded seven turnovers over the last two weeks. They will play in Las Vegas against the Raiders in Week 15.
Atlanta’s losing streak has come in conjunction with poor efficiency through the air. They have fallen from seventh to 12th in the league in EPA/pass (0.02), primarily due to the performance of Kirk Cousins. In his last four games, the veteran signal-caller has zero touchdown throws and eight interceptions. The team’s quarterback pressure rate allowed (36%) has improved over those contests. No NFL offense is sustainable under those conditions and Cousins will need to get right for the Falcons to have a chance to save their season. His passer rating (89.0) is the worst of his career as a starter.
Drake London and Darnell Mooney were impacting fantasy lineups significantly earlier in the year, but their production is tied to Cousins. London leads the team in targets (109) and receiving touchdowns (six), while Mooney holds the lead in receiving yardage (873). The recent lack of touchdowns has dropped London out of the top five at receiver and Mooney to WR13. These two could spike at any moment but the length of this drought is concerning.
The Falcons are tied for 15th in EPA/run (-0.06) but that has not slowed Bijan Robinson down. The fantasy RB4 is a dual threat with 1,378 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns on the season. Luckily for Atlanta, Robinson has been productive in the last two games or else their losses may have been worse. He tallied 194 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in those matchups. The second-year star has not fumbled this season.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have failed to eclipse 20 points in both games they’ve played in December. Their EPA/play (-0.05) is 15th and they rank 21st in scoring (21.3).
Los Angeles has struggled with run-game efficiency all season. They are tied for 22nd in EPA/run (-0.09). J.K. Dobbins is the focal point of the backfield, but his lack of receiving production has landed him at RB21 through Week 14. He is currently on injured reserve (IR) with a knee injury. Gus Edwards has taken over in Dobbins’ absence and has compiled a total of 79 rushing yards with two touchdowns. This Chargers backfield is a fantasy wild card for the time being.
Justin Herbert had a productive streak from Weeks 8 to 11, but his last three games have lacked impact on fantasy lineups. The Chargers are tied for 14th in EPA/pass (0.01). Herbert has only one touchdown in the last three games. He has been sacked 12 times in that stretch and has averaged only 192.6 yards through the air. The Chargers’ four best point totals show a correlation with Herbert’s higher totals in attempts.
Ladd McConkey jumps out as the Chargers’ top fantasy asset among their pass-catchers. The rookie is the WR20 with 815 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He has not scored since Week 8 but has gone over 100 yards three times since then. He dwarfs his teammates in targets (80) but trails Quentin Johnston‘s seven touchdowns by three.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are 2-10, losers of nine consecutive games. They carry the second-worst point differential (-125) in the NFL. Their 28-13 loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday was their third straight game scoring in the teens.
Las Vegas is tied for dead last in EPA/play (-0.2) and is averaging only 18.2 points per game. The quarterback position has been an adventure in the desert this year. Again. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell collectively have a dead-even touchdown-to-interception ratio (13:13). This is not sustainable for winning games with such low volume on the scores. Minshew has gotten most of the work this season but has recorded six fumbles along with 10 interceptions. The Raiders are third in the league in total turnovers (25).
The run-game efficiency of the Raiders is in the cellar. Their EPA/run is -0.28. In other words, they lose over a quarter of an expected point every time they hand it off. Alexander Mattison is the best they have to offer to fantasy managers out of the backfield, but he is averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game. Fantasy managers must steer clear of this running game as the team has issues up front. They are also fourth in the league in sacks allowed (43).
The Raiders are more efficient through the air, but their EPA/pass (-0.16) only ranks 25th overall. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers is the bright spot on this offense. He is the fantasy TE1 by about six points over George Kittle. His 933 receiving yards lead all tight ends by a significant margin and he is the most targeted player at his position. This offense has a long way to go, but if it improves, Bowers is a scary fantasy prospect if unlocked.
Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-14)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | Sacks | QB Pressure % | Turnovers |
| Baltimore Ravens | 29.5 | 422.5 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 75.0% | 9.05 | 19 | 32.5% | 9 |
| Buffalo Bills | 30.5 | 355 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 68.5% | 7.84 | 13 | 30.7% | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 32.1 | 394.8 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 67.3% | 7.80 | 25 | 33.8% | 12 |
| Washington Commanders | 28.9 | 377.6 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 60.0% | 7.03 | 30 | 28.7% | 9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 26.3 | 371.1 | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.13 | 59.2% | 6.71 | 36 | 33.5% | 11 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23.7 | 338.2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 51.0% | 5.74 | 35 | 29.3% | 14 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27.9 | 379.3 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 68.6% | 6.63 | 32 | 25.5% | 18 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.7 | 378.5 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 52.9% | 7.37 | 26 | 38.0% | 20 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27.8 | 361.9 | 0.03 | 0.09 | -0.08 | 69.0% | 7.51 | 32 | 32.7% | 32 |
| Green Bay Packers | 26.8 | 376.3 | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 57.4% | 7.82 | 16 | 30.3% | 15 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 26.1 | 351.4 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.09 | 57.4% | 7.46 | 41 | 38.5% | 19 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 22.9 | 340.7 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 57.1% | 6.74 | 28 | 30.5% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 21.8 | 348 | 0 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 51.2% | 6.32 | 23 | 30.2% | 16 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 21.4 | 371 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.06 | 48.8% | 6.23 | 26 | 36.0% | 20 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 21.3 | 309.5 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.09 | 54.5% | 6.90 | 38 | 37.3% | 6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 24.8 | 338.1 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.1 | 45.7% | 6.91 | 35 | 38.0% | 11 |
| New Orleans Saints | 22.3 | 341.5 | -0.06 | -0.1 | -0.01 | 60.5% | 6.30 | 25 | 35.1% | 16 |
| Houston Texans | 23.7 | 335.2 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.11 | 53.3% | 5.69 | 42 | 39.4% | 14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 23.2 | 344.4 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.12 | 54.3% | 5.87 | 40 | 37.3% | 19 |
| Denver Broncos | 23.5 | 320.2 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.07 | 56.8% | 5.96 | 19 | 27.4% | 15 |
| Miami Dolphins | 20.3 | 331.8 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.25 | 58.5% | 6.39 | 32 | 24.8% | 13 |
| New York Jets | 19.3 | 299.8 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.15 | 52.4% | 5.69 | 31 | 25.6% | 13 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20.5 | 311.5 | -0.1 | -0.11 | -0.08 | 55.0% | 5.35 | 24 | 38.0% | 20 |
| Chicago Bears | 19.5 | 288.5 | -0.11 | -0.16 | -0.04 | 69.0% | 5.02 | 56 | 37.4% | 10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 18.3 | 297.2 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.1 | 55.0% | 5.32 | 25 | 27.9% | 19 |
| New England Patriots | 17 | 291.1 | -0.14 | -0.2 | -0.05 | 44.7% | 4.54 | 43 | 41.4% | 17 |
| New York Giants | 14.9 | 301.1 | -0.16 | -0.22 | -0.06 | 41.7% | 4.29 | 42 | 37.8% | 18 |
| Carolina Panthers | 17.9 | 293.1 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.05 | 56.8% | 4.70 | 22 | 31.5% | 18 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20.6 | 322.6 | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.28 | 44.4% | 5.21 | 33 | 29.2% | 33 |
| Cleveland Browns | 17.8 | 313 | -0.18 | -0.24 | -0.08 | 57.1% | 4.69 | 53 | 35.2% | 21 |
| Tennessee Titans | 17.5 | 295.4 | -0.2 | -0.26 | -0.12 | 47.1% | 4.74 | 45 | 41.5% | 23 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 18.2 | 303 | -0.2 | -0.16 | -0.28 | 45.7% | 4.92 | 43 | 39.3% | 25 |
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