As the fantasy regular season comes to a close, the playoffs loom large for managers everywhere. Offensive trends are guidelines when setting fantasy playoff lineups. Managers must balance consistency and volatility with their players to advance.

Below is the Week 13 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.

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*For more details on expected points added (EPA), click here. The table at the bottom of this article is sorted by EPA/play.

NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency

Offenses Trending Up

Green Bay Packers

The Packers improved to 8-3 on Sunday, beating the Dolphins 30-17. Green Bay has the third-ranked offense in yardage per game (382.8) and is tied for eighth overall in EPA/play (0.02) through 11 games.

The strength of the Green Bay offense is its passing game. The Packers’ EPA/pass (0.07) is sixth overall this season. Since Week 11, Jordan Love‘s completion percentage is just shy of 70% with five touchdowns and only one interception. He has not thrown a pick over the last two weeks after throwing one in each of his first eight games this season. If Love takes care of the football, his production could spike to close the year. The Packers are an elite team in quarterback protection ranking 25th in quarterback pressure rate (29.9%) and second in sacks allowed (15). Green Bay faces the Lions on Thursday night in one of the NFL’s highest totals (51.5, ESPN Bet) this week.

The Packers are less efficient running than passing, but they are still 11th overall in EPA/run (-0.02). The running game includes Green Bay’s best fantasy asset in 2024 — Josh Jacobs. As the fantasy RB7, Jacobs has 987 rushing yards with eight touchdowns on the ground. He has added over 250 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air to go with it. With the Packers ranking fourth in run rate (50.7%), Jacobs will have an opportunity to finish in the top five at his position. Saquon Barkley is the only running back to outscore him over the last four weeks.

When it comes to pass-catchers in Green Bay, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft have separated themselves in fantasy value on a crowded offense. Reed leads the team in targets (58) and has scored three touchdowns over the last three weeks. He is the fantasy WR8 with a higher catch rate (75.9%) than all of the receivers in front of him. Kraft is the TE8 and third at the position in touchdown catches (six). His catch rate (81.8%) is even better than Reed’s and Jordan Love carries a passer rating of 132.8 when targeting Kraft this season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills earned their seventh straight win last week beating the 49ers on Sunday night. Buffalo is second in the NFL in scoring (29.6) and 31st in turnovers (seven). They have clinched the AFC East.

Through the lens of efficiency, Buffalo is one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL. They lead with Josh Allen‘s arm, throwing on just over half of their plays (52.0%). Their EPA/pass (0.14) ranks third overall and they are fifth in passing yards per play (7.1). Their protection has been excellent, allowing the fewest amount of sacks (13) in the league this season.

Allen is the fantasy QB5 and has 20 throwing touchdowns, 334 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per attempt and six rushing scores. With his passer rating (100.3) well above his career average, Allen has a chance for yet another top-three fantasy finish at the position in 2024. The Bills will be pushing the Chiefs as hard as possible for the AFC’s top seed over the next month, a stretch in which they will play the Jets and the Patriots twice.

Buffalo is imposing its run game on opponents. The Bills are third overall in both EPA/run (0.10) and rushing touchdowns (21), but see a stacked box at the third-highest rate in the NFL (27.0%). James Cook leads the team in attempts (151) and has accumulated over 700 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns and zero fumbles on the ground. With lower receiving totals than his peers, Cook is the fantasy RB11. He has, however, scored multiple times in two of the last five weeks. His yards after contact (3.20) have improved noticeably this season and Cook will continue to be a huge piece of the Buffalo offense in 2025.

The majority of targets in Buffalo have found Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid this season. Shakir continues to hold a high catch rate (82.2%), but his lack of touchdowns has reduced his fantasy value to WR35. To emerge as this team’s No. 1 WR, Shakir will need to find the paint inside the 20. Teammate Mack Hollins leads the team in this category, doing so four times in 2024. Kincaid’s season has been disappointing, he is the TE11 with only 356 receiving yards in 10 games. Most of the value for fantasy managers from the Bills comes with Allen and Cook.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders scored 42 points in their win over the Titans last week. Washington heads to its bye tied for third overall in EPA/play (0.12). They will travel to New Orleans to play the Saints in Week 15.

Washington’s running game is as efficient as it gets. They rank first in EPA/run (0.13), first in rushing success rate (48.7%) and second in rushing touchdowns (23). Brian Robinson leads the team in attempts (138), but this running game’s effectiveness must be attributed to Jayden Daniels as well. Among all qualified rushers, Daniels is sixth overall in yards per attempt (5.5) with six touchdowns on the ground. Daniels only trails Lamar Jackson in rushing yardage at quarterback, which has solidified his fantasy QB2 status. Robinson carries a respectable 4.6 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and zero fumbles. He is a reliable RB2 or Flex for fantasy lineups.

The Commanders are fourth overall in EPA/pass (0.11) but rank only 27th in pass rate (50.3%). Daniels has thrown the ball well for a rookie, posting the fourth-best completion rate (69.6%) in the NFL. He has added 15 throwing touchdowns and 2,819 passing yards to his fantasy line behind solid protection up front. The Commanders allow quarterback pressure at the seventh-lowest rate (28.7%) across the league and have turned the ball over only nine times this season. This offensive line anchors a team that can move the ball either way.

The key pass-catchers in Washington are Terry McLaurin (WR3) and Zach Ertz (TE7). McLaurin is having the best season of his career. His reception rate (74.4%) is up nearly 10% from his career average and his nine receiving touchdowns are a new career high. McLaurin is the top qualified wide receiver in total receiving EPA (+63.2) and has three touchdowns in his last two games. Ertz is doing damage near the goal line this season. He is the top scoring tight end inside the 5-yard line with all three of his receptions going for touchdowns. The core of this Commanders offense is set and can be considered reliable for managers to close 2024 and into next season.

Offenses Trending Down

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville lost its fifth straight game to division rival Houston last week. The Jaguars are now 2-10 and have been officially eliminated from the postseason. Franchise signal-caller Trevor Lawrence is headed to injured reserve (IR).

The Jaguars have execution issues. They have a high pass rate (59.6%) and have succeeded in preventing sacks this season, yet they rank 25th in EPA/pass (-0.12). Before his injury, Lawrence was on pace for his lowest completion percentage (60.6%) since his rookie season and had thrown only 11 touchdowns.

This team has a lack of offensive opportunities. It ranks 31st in third-down efficiency (32.1%) and 32nd in total plays run (671). Doug Pederson and the coaching staff must address this or Jacksonville will continue to provide little fantasy value to managers.

The Jaguars’ running game is more efficient than its passing game. Jacksonville is tied for 24th in EPA/run (-0.09) and ranks 29th in total running plays (271). Tank Bigsby has been the brightest spot, he is seventh among all qualified rushers in yards per attempt (5.4) but has received only seven more carries than Travis Etienne. Bigsby looks to be developing in his second year and could yield value based on average draft position (ADP) in drafts ahead of the 2025 season.

Brian Thomas Jr. is having a great rookie year and is the fantasy focal point of this receiving group as the WR12. He has 46 catches for 765 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Thomas deserves a much higher target share than the 19.4% he is seeing now, which is 51st overall at receiver. If it is granted next season, his production will ascend rapidly.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have seen their EPA/play (0.01) shrink over their last two games. This team ranks 27th in red-zone efficiency (48.9%) this season and sent both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to IR after its loss in Buffalo last week.

The passing game of the 49ers has struggled since Week 11. At that time, they ranked fifth in EPA/pass. They now rank 11th (0.01). Across both games, Brock Purdy has thrown for 253 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Purdy’s completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating are all down from last season. San Francisco must improve throwing to salvage a playoff birth in 2024.

San Francisco ranks 10th in EPA/run (0) but must remake its backfield down the stretch of this season. Isaac Guerendo will step in as the lead back, who has shown promise in his play this year. Guerendo is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt with two rushing touchdowns. He will have little to no competition. Deebo Samuel is the next closest player in rushing attempts (27) and will be needed on the exterior. If Guerendo has not been claimed off waivers, he is a must-add for fantasy managers.

The 49ers will need excellent play from their receiving unit moving forward. George Kittle has been the most fantasy-productive player in the Bay Area this year. He is the TE2 with 649 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns. His workload is likely to increase with the injuries at running back.

Jauan Jennings and Samuel are also due for more targets. Samuel has underperformed his preseason ADP by a wide margin all year and Jennings has only one touchdown since Week 3. Samuel is the ultimate dark horse in DFS slates.

New York Jets

The Jets have won only one of their last nine games. New York is 31st in total yardage per game (291.3) and will face the Dolphins in Week 14.

The running game continues to be an issue for the Jets. They are a bottom-five team in EPA/run (-0.15) and have scored on the ground only six times in 12 games. Breece Hall was a high first-round pick over the summer, but is the fantasy RB12 and leads the position in total fumbles (six).

Hall has posted just under 1,100 yards from scrimmage, but 401 of them have come through the air. The Jets are 29th in rushing yardage per game (87.3). This, along with the lack of scoring power on the ground, has faded Hall’s value all year. He is not a fantasy RB1 and should be accompanied in lineups appropriately.

Perhaps the bigger surprise from the Jets this year has been their passing game. With the return of Aaron Rodgers, the Jets had the potential for a lethal passing attack. Unfortunately, they are a bottom-half team in EPA/pass (-0.09) and passing yardage per game (204.0).

They are in the top 10 in touchdown throws (20), but Rodgers is the fantasy QB18 with his worst completion rate since 2018 (62.5) and his lowest passer rating (87.5) since he became a starter in 2008.

Garrett Wilson is the most valuable pass catcher on the Jets for fantasy managers. He is the WR11 with 763 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He has been freezing of late with 100 total receiving yards and zero scores over his past three games. Davante Adams is now on the roster, but has played in only six games this season and is yet to break 100 yards in a game with the Jets.

Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-13)