The two most appealing games to stack on Week 17’s main slate have an identical game total of 48.5 points, and both are rematches of shootouts earlier this season. Two suggested studs and a recommended value/punt are from those two contests. Yet, three one-off picks are also appealing. Finally, three player props from Sleeper and Underdog were the most appealing from their pick ’em lobbies.
NFL Week 17 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Vikings vs. Packers
Spread/Total: MIN -1.0/48.5 Points
The Vikings and Packers combined for 60 points in Week 4 in Minnesota's 31-29 victory. According to Pro Football Reference, Green Bay tallied 465 yards on offense, and Minnesota had 374. Sam Darnold and Jordan Love both went off, with the former passing for 275 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and losing a fumble with 15 rushing yards compared to 389, four, three, zero fumbles and six rushing yards for the latter. Both quarterbacks are intriguing DFS selections, but Darnold gets the edge over Love because of the play-calling tendencies of the offenses. According to RotoViz's pace app, since Week 13, the Vikings have had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate, tied for the third-highest mark. Meanwhile, the Packers have had a 53% situation-neutral rush rate, tied for the fourth-highest mark.
Thus, Love is a GPP pick, and Darnold is an excellent selection in all game types. Darnold's top wideouts are the most appealing stacking options with him. Justin Jefferson will be among the core studs, and Jordan Addison is also a high-upside pick. Gamers can use one of Green Bay's pass-catchers, namely Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft or Dontayvion Wicks -- if Christian Watson is out -- as a bring-back from a Darnold double-stack. Skinny stacking the pass-catching players from this contest is also viable.
However, gamers shouldn't be dissuaded from using Josh Jacobs or Aaron Jones, either. Minnesota's run defense has slipped up lately. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Vikings have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game (121.0) at 4.52 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns since Week 13. Jacobs has excelled as a bell-cow running back for the Packers and can continue Minnesota's woes.
Conversely, while the Vikings have a pass-leaning offense, Jones doesn't share much of the backfield's work. He had 22 of the backfield's 25 rush attempts in Week 4 for 93 yards and five targets, four receptions and 46 receiving yards. In Minnesota's last four games, Jones has had 54 of the team's backfield's 77 rush attempts, parlaying his featured role into 62.0 rushing yards per game, 4.59 yards per carry, a 42.6% stuff percentage and two rushing touchdowns. Jones also had a 47.7% route participation rate in those games, considerably ahead of 14.2% for Cam Akers and 1.3% for Ty Chandler. Jones had 2.5 receptions per game, 15.8 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. His well-rounded contributions give him a high ceiling and make him a desirable pivot in GPPs from Minnesota's likely chalkier wideouts.
Game: Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Spread/Total: TB -8.0/48.5 Points
The Vikings and Packers weren't the only ones to have a shootout earlier this year. In Week 13, the Buccaneers beat the Panthers 26-23 in overtime. Tampa Bay had 445 yards of offense, and Carolina had 367.
Tampa Bay's electrifying rookie running back and their No. 1 wide receiver. The former will be included among the core studs. Mike Evans converted a dozen targets into eight receptions, 118 receiving yards and a touchdown. Baker Mayfield, Evans and rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan are an appealing GPP stack for gamers who choose to pivot from attacking Carolina's Charmin-soft run defense to rooting for touchdown variance smiling on Tampa Bay's passing attack. Gamers can also use the forthcoming running back with Evans or McMillan since the Buccaneers have a massive implied total and plenty of points to go around.
The path to moving the ball against the Bucs is straightforward and through the air. Their run defense has been stout lately, but the same isn't true of their pass defense. Since Week 13, the Buccaneers have yielded the 11th-most passing yards per game (248.5) and four passing touchdowns with only two interceptions despite facing a lackluster collection of quarterbacks. Bryce Young lit them up for 298 passing yards and one passing touchdown, with zero interceptions, taking one sack and adding 17 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.
Adam Thielen is Carolina's safest DFS pick. The savvy veteran had 10 targets, eight receptions, 99 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bucs. Thielen has had at least five receptions in four consecutive games, besting 50 receiving yards in three of those contests and scoring a touchdown in two of them. Xavier Legette's and Jalen Coker's playing time and development should be prioritized over David Moore's playing, but the veteran wide receiver could cut into the rookie duo's routes and playing time, rendering Legette and Coker better fits in GPPs than cash-game lineups.
Core Studs
- Jefferson's recent heater has pulled his full-season numbers into elite territory. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 105 wide receivers with at least 200 routes this year, Jefferson is ninth in air yards share (40.1%), third in target share (28.4%), tied for fifth in first-read percentage (33.9%), sixth in receptions (92), second in receiving yards per game (92.5), fourth in yards per route run (2.80), tied for fifth in end zone targets (13), fourth in receiving touchdowns (10) and third in expected fantasy points per game (18.3).
- Saquon Barkley is having a monstrous campaign. Among 64 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts, Barkley is first in rushing yards per game (122.5), second in yards per carry (5.85), first in yards before contact per attempt (3.59), sixth in explosive run percentage (7.0%) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (13). Barkley also has 2.1 receptions per game, 18.4 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns this year. Philadelphia's dynamic running back didn't make the most of a soft matchup against the Cowboys earlier this year since the Eagles trounced them. Still, Barkley can make the most of the rematch.
- Bucky Irving cut through Carolina's soft run defense like a hot knife through butter in Week 13, rumbling for 152 yards and a touchdown and securing three receptions for 33 receiving yards. The Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 215.5 rushing yards per game, 6.20 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns since Week 13. Meanwhile, save for an early exit in Week 14, Irving has been on a roll. Irving had 92 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in Week 16, 117 rushing yards and two receptions for negative four receiving yards in Week 15, 152 scrimmage yards and one touchdown in Week 10 and 87 and one in Week 9. Irving should smash his NFC South foe again this week.
Value Plays/Punts
- The Titans pulled the plug on Will Levis in Week 15, and after Mason Rudolph attempted 26 passes in relief, he attempted 34 more in a start in Week 16. Chigoziem Okonkwo has thrived in the previous two weeks. Since Week 15, Okonkwo has had a 22.8% air yards share, 26.4% target share, 0.38 targets per route run, 35.7% first-read percentage, 17 receptions (8.5 per game), 140 receiving yards (70.0 per game) and 2.80 yards per route run. He'll be justifiably chalky at both DFS outlets this week.
- In Week 16, the Saints were the first team to get shutout this year. They've been ravaged by injuries, and Derek Carr hasn't returned to practice. Even if Carr returns, New Orleans has a dreadful offense, especially if Alvin Kamara is still out. Moreover, if Spencer Rattler starts, Las Vegas's defense should pile up fantasy points. They're a cheap defense that can open up cap space.
- Young is a matchup-based value at quarterback, as I highlighted above. The second-year quarterback has used his legs lately to elevate his floor and ceiling. Young has rushed for at least 20 yards, a touchdown or both in six straight games. Young has also thrown a touchdown in eight consecutive games.
Week 17 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Bucky Irving: 79.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.70x)
Bucky Irving: 78.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
The Panthers haven't just been a train wreck against the run lately. According to Pro Football Reference, Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards per game (141.4) to running backs this season. Irving previously clowned the Panthers, and he's surpassed 79.5 rushing yards in three of his past five games. One of the outliers was a loss, and the other he left early because of an injury. The rookie running back should trounce them again in a positive game script for the favored Buccaneers.
Bryce Young: 17.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.74x)
Bryce Young: 18.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
In Young's last six games, he's rushed for 176 yards (29.3 per game) at 7.65 yards per carry. The second-year pro has exceeded 18.5 rushing yards in four games during that period, with a median of 24.5. He had just 17 against the Buccaneers. Still, Tampa Bay has ceded 22.3 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this year. The Bucs are much easier to pass on than run on, and every dropback by Young is also an opportunity to scramble. Therefore, Young can scoot for over 18.5 this week.
Justin Jefferson: 84.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.72x)
Justin Jefferson: 84.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Jefferson has averaged 92.5 receiving yards per game this year, with a median of 85. Minnesota's No. 1 wide receiver has also done his best work in his domed home environment. In eight games at home this year, Jefferson has averaged 103.5 receiving yards per game, with a median of 95.5. He's had over 84.5 receiving yards in five of eight home games this year, and he had 85 against the Packers in Green Bay in Week 4. We project him to have 93.1 receiving yards this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.