Many games on this week’s slate have vast spreads, leaving the pickings for entire game stacks somewhat slim. Still, one game is an exciting stacking option. A second game has GPP appeal and some intriguing value options for mini stacks. Two other studs join a superstar from one of the game stacks in the core studs sections. In addition, a value pick from the second featured game has company in the values/punts from a pair of nifty one-off selections. Finally, three props were the most appealing in Week 16 at Sleeper and Underdog.
NFL Week 16 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Jets vs. Rams
Spread/Total: LAR -3.0/46.5 Points
Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are slinging it, albeit with a bigger sample of success this season for the former. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in eight games since Week 8, Stafford has completed 66.0% of his passes for 258.9 passing yards per game, 7.73 adjusted net yards per attempt, 16 passing touchdowns, three interceptions and took only 11 sacks.
Meanwhile, Rodgers had flashes earlier this year that didn't last, but he's put together back-to-back stellar showings. In the veteran quarterback's last two games, he's completed 62.3% of his passes for 314.0 passing yards per game, 9.23 adjusted net yards per attempt, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and taken four sacks. Neither quarterback has an imposing matchup. Thus, they could have a back-and-forth shootout.
Both veteran quarterbacks are also armed with a pair of supremely talented wide receivers. Stafford has Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and Rodgers has Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. Among 99 wide receivers with at least 200 routes this year, Wilson is third in expected fantasy points per game (18.4), Nacua is sixth (17.8), Adams is eighth (17.1) and Kupp is 10th (16.8).
The most straightforward and my favorite way to stack this game is with one of the quarterbacks, both of their stud wide receivers and one bring-back wideout from the opposing team. Stafford and the Rams are favored, and Los Angeles is my favorite side of this stack. Nevertheless, Rodgers and a double stack with Adams and Wilson and a bring-back of Nacua or Kupp has massive upside if Rodgers can stay hot and the Rams get off to a sluggish start after traveling across the country to play in the 1:00 p.m. ET window.
Game: Raiders vs. Jaguars
Spread/Total: LV -1.0/40.0 Points
Will this be an ugly or DFS-friendly slopfest? The Jaguars were in an ugly, low-scoring game against the fellow non-contending Titans in Week 14 but had a DFS-friendly shootout with the equally out-of-contention Jets in Week 15. This game could tilt in either direction since the offenses are lackluster, but the defenses are arguably worse.
Fortunately, Aidan O'Connell fully participated in practice on Wednesday. Barring a setback, he'll be back to inject life into the offense. The second-year signal-caller has been up and down in his sophomore campaign but showcased his DFS utility when he lit up the Chiefs for 340 yards and two touchdowns on Black Friday.
Las Vegas's passing attack is funneled through Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. In games without Adams this year, Bowers has had a 24.1% target share, 27.5% air yards share and 15.8 expected fantasy points per game, and Meyers has tallied a 25.4% target share, 38.3 air yards share and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game.
Ameer Abdullah is a viable punt from Las Vegas's pass-heavy attack after Sincere McCormick joined Zamir White on the Injured Reserve (IR). Abdullah will likely share the backfield with inefficient Alexander Mattison. In five games since Las Vegas's bye, Abdullah has had 23 rush attempts (4.6 per game), 77 rushing yards (15.4 per game), 20 targets (4.0 per game), 18 receptions (3.6 per game), 122 receiving yards (24.4 per game), three touchdowns and 10.7 expected fantasy points per game. Even a slight uptick in volume against Jacksonville's RB-friendly defense would make him a sweet punt.
Mac Jones has played at least 73% of Jacksonville's snaps in the previous five games and hasn't derailed the fantasy value of Brian Thomas. In those five games, BTJ had an 89.4% route participation rate, 37.8% air yards share, 26.5% target share, 0.27 targets per route run, 32.8% first-read percentage, 29 receptions (5.8 per game), 361 receiving yards (72.2 per game), 2.15 yards per route run, three touchdowns, four end zone targets and 16.8 expected fantasy points per game.
Core Studs
- Since Nacua has returned from the IR, he's had a 33.9% air yards share, 29.5% target share, 0.37 targets per route run, 37.4% first-read percentage, 57 receptions (7.1 per game), 770 receiving yards (96.3 per game), three touchdowns and 19.2 expected points per game.
- James Conner is in an eruption spot. The Panthers can't stop the run. Since Week 12, Carolina has coughed up the most rushing yards per game (205.3), 6.04 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns. They've allowed 43.5 more rushing yards than the second-worst run defense in that period. Conner is built to steamroll them. Among 61 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Conner is 13th in rushing yards per game (69.5), 23rd in yards per carry (4.48), tied for 17th in yards after contact per attempt (2.62), tied for ninth in explosive run percentage (6.5%) and second in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29). The veteran running back has also added 2.9 receptions per game, 25.8 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown.
- Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's most consistent pass-catching weapon, and being attached to Josh Allen in a prominent role during his heater is outstanding for Buffalo's slot wideout's Week 16 outlook. Shakir has had at least seven targets in eight straight games. During that stretch, he had a 23.9% target share, 0.30 targets per route run, 29.7% first-read percentage, 51 receptions (6.4 per game), 525 receiving yards (65.6 per game), 2.40 yards per route run, two receiving touchdowns and 14.7 expected fantasy points per game. Shakir also had a 74.4% slot rate in that period, and the Patriots have faced the ninth-highest percentage of targets to the slot (33.7%) since Week 8. Shakir should largely avoid Christian Gonzalez in the slot, and New England's other cornerbacks are favorable matchups.
Value Plays/Punts
- Brenton Strange has played in five games without Evan Engram this season, and Engram is on the IR. In those five games, the second-year tight end had a 66.3% route participation rate, 15.4% air yards share, 16.4% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 19.0% first-read percentage, 23 receptions (4.6 per game), 193 receiving yards (38.6 per game), four end zone targets, two touchdowns (both on end zone targets) and 11.7 expected fantasy points per game. Strange is an excellent punt after setting career highs for targets (12), receptions (11) and receiving yards (73) last week.
- Jalen Coker was excellent in his return from a multi-game absence with injuries. In Week 15, Coker had 72 air yards, a 21.4% target share, 0.20 targets per route run, 22.2% first-read percentage, 50.0% slot rate, 50.0% wide rate, four receptions, 110 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Coker had the best game of his rookie season last week. Still, in his last four games, he's had a 35.5% air yards share, 19.7% target share, 0.23 targets per route run, 24.4% first-read percentage, three end zone targets, 13 receptions (3.25 per game), 265 receiving yards (66.3 per game), 2.68 yards per route run, two touchdowns and 12.9 expected fantasy points per game. Thus, he's more than a one-hit wonder.
- Michael Penix was announced as Atlanta's starting quarterback after DraftKings and FanDuel released their main slate. As a result, he has the minimum salary at both providers. The Falcons have an implied total of 25.25 points, and the Giants are playing out the string. Penix wasn't overwhelmed in limited playing time in the preseason and played a ton of college football, perhaps allowing him to hit the ground running. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in Penix's final 28 games over his last two seasons of college football, he had 9,547 passing yards (340.96 per game), 67 passing touchdowns, 19 interceptions, 70 big-time throws and 20 turnover-worthy plays on 1,153 dropbacks.
Week 16 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Jahmyr Gibbs: 89.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.72x)
Jahmyr Gibbs: 87.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Jahmyr Gibbs has played in 13 career games when David Montgomery has had fewer than 40% of Detroit's snaps. The explosive second-year running back had 31, 43, 54, 63, 66, 68, 69, 77, 80, 84, 90, 116 and 152 rushing yards in those games. His median was 69 rushing yards, and his average was 76.4. Still, Montgomery was involved in some of those games, and he'll be out this week.
Gibbs should exceed his median and average from that sample in a cushy matchup this week. The Lions are 6.5-point favorites, and the Bears can't contain running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, Chicago has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (115.6) to running backs this season.
James Conner: 81.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.72x)
James Conner: 80.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Conner has surpassed 81.5 rushing yards in seven of 14 games this season, including the previous two weeks. He should steamroll a defense permitting an NFL-high 141.5 rushing yards per game to running backs this year.
De'Von Achane: 35.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.75x)
De'Von Achane: 34.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
De'Von Achane has cooked with gas as a receiver in Tua Tagovailoa's starts. In those 10 games, Achane had a 17.2% target share, 0.28 targets per route run, 13.7% first-read percentage, 61 receptions (6.1 per game), 460 receiving yards (46.0 per game) and 2.01 yards per route run. The second-year speedster has had over 35.5 receiving yards in six of Tua's 10 starts.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
