Two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL are squaring off in the late-afternoon window, and that game is a no-brainer choice to stack. The second featured stack has a straightforward A-side to the contest, but the B-side has a pair of high-upside players and a punt choice as bring-backs. The core studs section has a player from each game featured in the game stacks and an underpriced bell-cow running back. The values/punts section has three one-off picks who weren’t part of the suggested game stacks. Finally, three overs were the most appealing player props at Sleeper and Underdog in Week 15.
NFL Week 15 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Lions vs. Bills
Spread/Total: DET -2.5/54.5 Points
I'm not going to analyze every player on the table. Instead, let's look at this projected shootout through a broader lens. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Bills have a 56% situation-neutral pass rate this season, and the Lions have a 52% situation-neutral pass rate. Buffalo has had a 54% situation-neutral pass rate in their past four games, and Detroit has had a 50% situation-neutral pass rate in their previous four contests. Meanwhile, the Bills have faced a 54% situation-neutral pass rate this year, and the Lions have faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate. In their previous four contests, Buffalo's defense has faced a 49% situation-neutral pass rate, and Detroit's has faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate.
So, the most straightforward way to stack this game is with Buffalo's passing-game options and Detroit's running backs. Still, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick are intriguing options, and Jared Goff might be overlooked in the same contest as Josh Allen despite the Lions being favored at home. While it's not sneaky to use Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery, they're both excellent selections in a mouthwatering matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bills have allowed the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs this season.
Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's No. 1 wide receiver, but looking under the hood at how teams have attacked the Lions through the air is intriguing for Amari Cooper's and Keon Coleman's outlooks this week. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 11, 55.2% of targets against the Lions have been wide, 25.7% to the slot, 11.4% inline and 6.7% to the running backs. Since Cooper joined the Bills, Coleman has had a 91.6% wide rate, Cooper's had an 87.0% wide rate and Shakir has aligned wide 23.1% of the time.
James Cook, like Goff, could be overlooked in this shootout. In last week's shootout, the game script got away from the Bills, and Cook had only eight opportunities (six rushes and two targets). He had at least 15 opportunities in the five previous games, and he's hit that threshold in eight of 12 games this year. Cook has averaged 77.25 scrimmage yards per game this year with 12 touchdowns. Thus, he has a significant ceiling, and any potentially undervalued player in this likely shootout is appealing in GPPs.
Game: Titans vs. Bengals
Spread/Total: CIN -5.0/47.0 Points
The Bengals have had an NFL-high 72% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10, and the Titans have faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate. Joe Burrow has gone nuclear this year in Cincinnati's pass-happy offense. Among qualified quarterbacks, Burrow is first in passing yards per game (285.1) and first in passing touchdowns (33). He's exceeded 300 passing yards in four straight games and should keep shredding against Tennessee's unimposing defense.
The following section will feature the club's No. 1 wide receiver. I didn't immediately want to include Tee Higgins, yet my reluctance was ultimately why I believe he's an enticing GPP pick. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Higgins is first on the Bengals in air yards share (35.9%). He has the potential to explode.
Andrei Iosivas is the most appealing cheap piece of Cincinnati's passing attack. Since Cincinnati's Week 12 bye, Iosivas has been third on the club in route participation rate (65.6%), air yards share (14.4%) and end zone targets (one). In those two games, the second-year wideout had seven receptions (3.5 per game), 76 receiving yards (38.0 per game) and one touchdown.
Chase Brown is a game-script-proof monster. He's not giving up any work to Khalil Herbert, and the only tiny blemish is coming off the field on some longer downs in favor of tight ends in the backfield to provide Burrow with pass protection. Nevertheless, Brown won't get points for stonewalling a blitzing linebacker, so not getting subjected to that physicality on a play he wouldn't be targeted on anyway is a potential benefit. Brown has had at least 20 touches in four of his last five games and tallied at least 15 in eight of his past 10.
Calvin Ridley is a target hog, albeit from an inconsistent and frequently inaccurate Will Levis. In seven games since the Titans traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs, Ridley has had a 45.5% air yards share, 28.3% target share, 0.27 targets per route run, a 36.6% first-read percentage, three end zone targets, 39 receptions (5.4 per game), 555 receiving yards (79.3 per game), 2.43 yards per route run, two touchdowns and 16.7 expected fantasy points per game.
Tony Pollard didn't practice on Wednesday because of an ankle injury. If Pollard's ankle injury sidelined him, Tyjae Spears would be a screaming value. However, it's early in the week, and Pollard's had a massive workload, so the Titans might have been erring on the side of caution and resting their featured back. Pollard has averaged 90.0 scrimmage yards per game this year and recorded 3.0 receptions per game and four touchdowns.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has a floor of zero points. He's not a massive target-earner, and Levis is wildly inconsistent. Nevertheless, Okonkwo's tallied 6.9 expected fantasy points per game without Nuk, and he has a favorable matchup. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings and the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends this year.
Core Studs
- Ja'Marr Chase is working on the wide receiver triple crown, leading the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319) and touchdown receptions (15). He's reached paydirt in four straight games, scoring multiple touchdowns in three of those contests. Chase has also had at least 75 scrimmage yards in four straight, erupting for 264 and 191 in that period. He's out of this world.
- Brian Robinson should be a workhorse without Austin Ekeler. In two games without Ekeler this year, Robinson had 37 of Washington's backfield's 64 rush attempts (57.8%) for 204 rushing yards (102.0 per game), 5.51 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, a backfield-high 37.8% route participation rate, four targets, four receptions (2.0 per game) and 18 receiving yards (9.0 per game). He likely would have handled a higher percentage of the backfield's workload if those games weren't blowout victories. Robinson should steamroll a defense that yielded 128.8 rushing yards per game, 4.95 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns in their previous four games.
- Allen is coming off back-to-back dynamic efforts, accounting for 148 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 18 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown on a lateral in the snow in Week 13, and exploding for 342 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 82 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns against the Rams last week. He'll likely need to put the cape on again this week opposite Detroit's high-powered offense, creating a slate-leading-scorer ceiling in a probable shootout.
Value Plays/Punts
- Bryce Young is performing at an NFL-caliber starter level, and Adam Thielen is thriving. In the veteran wideout's last two games, he's had an 11.6-yard average depth of target, 32.1% air yards share, 26.3% target share, 0.28 targets per route run, a 31.5% first-read percentage, 17 receptions (8.5 per game), 201 receiving yards (100.5 per game), 2.72 yards per route run, one touchdown and 18.6 expected fantasy points per game. Thielen is grossly underpriced at both DFS providers.
- Zach Ertz isn't a world-beater. Nonetheless, he's tallied 4.0 receptions per game, 38.5 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns in 13 games this season. The veteran tight end is Washington's No. 2 pass-catching weapon, and he could soak up a few extra opportunities without Noah Brown. Obviously, Ertz is nothing like Brown, but Washington's wideouts beyond Terry McLaurin are dreadful. The veteran tight end also has the potential to reach paydirt since the Commanders have a juicy implied total.
- Denver's running back rotation hasn't been consistent. Still, Jaleel McLaughlin had his best game of the season before Denver's Week 14 bye, and the diminutive jitterbug is the club's most efficient runner. In his last four games, McLaughlin has gashed defenses for 5.89 yards per carry, 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt, a 37.0% stuff percentage and an 11.1% explosive run percentage on a team-high 27 rush attempts. The second-year running back had 84 rushing yards on 14 attempts against the Browns in Week 13 and has a sweet matchup against the Colts this week. Indy has faced the most rush attempts per game (26.7) by running backs, allowing them 118.0 rushing yards per game, 0.85 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.69 receptions per game, 35.6 receiving yards per game and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game. The Colts have also coughed up 140.8 rushing yards per game at 4.90 yards per carry in their last four games. McLaughlin isn't a safe punt, but he's an alluring value option since he could lead Denver's backfield in rush attempts in a plus matchup.
Week 15 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Derrick Henry: 101.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.71x)
Derrick Henry: 102.5 Rushing Yards - Higher(Underdog)
The Ravens are 16.5-point favorites this week, and Derrick Henry should have fresh legs after Baltimore's Week 14 bye. King Henry has averaged 108.2 rushing yards per game this year, with a median of 92. However, Henry has eclipsed 102.5 rushing yards in six of Baltimore's eight wins. He should run wild against the Dexter Lawrence-less Giants.
Ja'Marr Chase: 86.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.70x)
Ja'Marr Chase: 86.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
The Titans are no longer an imposing matchup for wide receivers. In the previous four weeks, they've yielded 86 receiving yards to Brian Thomas, 73 to McLaurin, 92 to Nico Collins and 81 to Justin Jefferson. Cincinnati's alpha wideout shouldn't have difficulty barbecuing them and clearing 86.5 receiving yards.
Josh Allen: 35.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.72x)
Josh Allen: 35.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Allen's legs haven't been a huge part of his production every week this year. Yet, they've been a critical part of his success lately. In his last four games, Allen has rumbled for 82, 18, 55 and 50 rushing yards. In a likely back-and-forth shootout, Allen should frequently run again against Detroit's man-coverage-heavy defense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
