The game stacks in Week 14 aren’t as straightforward and alluring as in previous weeks. The two games chosen for stacking have some intriguing skinny stacks that fit well around the two featured studs. Since the core studs have large salaries, I’ve opted to drop a third stud and include four values/punts instead. Finally, there are some eye-catching player props at Sleeper and Underdog.
NFL Week 14 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: 49ers vs. Bears
Spread/Total: SF -4.0/44.0 Points
The 49ers are banged up but favored at home against the traveling Bears. George Kittle is having an elite season and has an adequate matchup. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 65 tight ends with at least 75 routes this year, Kittle is fifth in air-yard share (21.2%), fifth in target share (20.3%), sixth in first-read percentage (22.4%), tied for first in end zone targets (eight), eighth in receptions (50), third in receiving yards per game (64.9), first in yards per route run (2.53), first in touchdowns (eight) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (12.6).
Isaac Guerendo is the next person up after the 49ers placed Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on the Injured Reserve (IR). The rookie running back was an efficient committee running back in college, but he has incredible athleticism.
Kyle Shanahan has plugged in speedsters with little fanfare, such as Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Elijah Mitchell, and has produced rushing success. Guerendo hasn't had many opportunities as San Francisco's third-string running back. Still, among 121 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this season, Guerendo is tied for seventh in yards per carry (5.86) and 10th in explosive run rate (9.5%). Even if Guerendo shares work with the recently claimed Israel Abanikanda or one of Patrick Taylor or Ke'Shawn Vaughn promoted from the practice squad, Guerendo can gash a leaky run defense.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Bears have allowed 116.4 rushing yards per game, 4.99 yards per carry, 10 rushing touchdowns, 4.33 receptions per game and 31.3 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. In addition, Chicago has coughed up 142.0 rushing yards per game, 4.73 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns since Week 10.
In three games since the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and promoted Thomas Brown to the position, Caleb Williams's production has taken off. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 11, Williams has had 827 passing yards (275.7), 7.1 yards per attempt, a 64.1% completion rate, 71.4% adjusted completion rate, five touchdown passes, zero interceptions, eight big-time throws, four turnover-worthy plays, 19 rush attempts, 142 rushing yards, two missed tackles forced and six runs of 10-plus yards. Ideally, Brown's promotion to the interim head coach this week won't derail the offense's momentum.
Williams has peppered his wideouts since Brown started calling plays. The following table has the receiving data for DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze since Week 11 via the data suite at Fantasy Points.
Moore, Allen and Odunze have defined roles, evidenced by their respective average depth of target (aDOT). Brown has prioritized getting the ball in Moore's hands to let him gain yards after the catch. Allen is the intermediate threat, and Odunze is the vertical weapon. Interestingly, Odunze's two end zone targets were the most among the trio in those three games, but he's the only one of them to fail to score a touchdown. Odunze is due for positive regression. Moore is the most appealing of Williams's pass-catching weapons, and Allen is a rock-solid choice.
Game: Rams vs. Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -4.5/49.0 Points
Stacking this contest is expensive, and there are more appealing high-salaried studs as one-offs. However, there's massive DFS upside if Los Angeles's offensive line can provide Matthew Stafford with time to pass and Kyren Williams with room to run. As a result, this is an appealing game to stack in GPPs.
Josh Allen is the most appealing player in this contest, with appeal in cash games, too. Allen could have all his weapons this weekend since Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are trending in the right direction. The Bills haven't played many games with their full complement of weapons since they traded for Amari Cooper, creating some mystery about how opportunities will shake out.
Still, Joe Brady has dialed up the passing attack since the team acquired Cooper. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Bills are tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate (58%) since Week 7. Meanwhile, since Week 10, the Rams have faced a 56% situation-neutral pass rate. Allen has slate-leading-scorer upside because of his arm and legs if the Rams' offense can keep pace and turn this into a shootout.
Correctly picking which of Allen's pass-catching weapons are the apple of his eye could be the skeleton key needed to win GPPs this week if this game shoots out. Khalil Shakir is Allen's favorite pass-catching option. Since Week 7, he's led the team in route participation (74.3%), target share (24.9%), first-read percentage (32.5%), receptions (40) and receiving yards (380).
However, Cooper or Coleman could have bigger efforts against the Rams. This season, 38.4% of targets have been thrown to wide-aligned receivers versus 30.0% to the slot against Los Angeles. Yet, since Week 10, 34.8% were to the slot, and 27.7% were wide. Shakir is Buffalo's primary slot wide receiver, and Cooper and Coleman largely align wide.
James Cook is an exciting piece of exposure to Buffalo's offense as a one-off pick, bring-back from Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp or even Williams. Cook can be stacked with Allen, too. Since Week 10, 18.8% of targets against the Rams have gone to running backs. In Cook's last six games, he's had 0.22 targets per route run, 15 receptions (2.5 per game) and 12.0 receiving yards per game.
Cook can also feast on the ground. The Rams are tied for the fourth-most rushing yards per game (116.4) allowed to running backs this season. They've also permitted nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games to the position.
Williams is the stud from the Rams most likely to succeed against the Bills if it's a close contest. The Bills invite the run to limit explosive passing plays. As a result, Buffalo has allowed 101.5 rushing yards per game, six rushing touchdowns, 6.0 receptions per game, 47.4 receiving yards per game and five receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.
Nacua and Kupp could help DFS teams on volume in a neutral, positive or negative game script. They're target hogs, leaving scraps for LA's ancillary pass-catching options. Nacua and Kupp have a challenging matchup but have the talent to overcome it if Stafford is clicking on all cylinders.
Core Studs
- Saquon Barkley will be extremely chalky this weekend in the dreamiest matchup imaginable. The Panthers have allowed the most rushing yards per game (137.7), the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.25), the most DraftKings points per game and the most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year. Meanwhile, Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (124.9) and has 11 rushing touchdowns, 2.4 receptions per game, 22.3 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns in 12 games this season. The lineup optimizer projects Barkley to have the most DraftKings and FanDuel points this week, irrespective of position.
- Justin Jefferson is projected as the WR1 on the main slates at both DFS outlets. Yet, the overall WR1 projection doesn't fully capture his slate-breaking upside. Jefferson hasn't had one of his patented monstrous performances yet this year. Nevertheless, he has a 38.0% air-yard share, 27.4% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 33.2% first-read percentage and 10 end zone targets. Jefferson's underlying data is excellent, and a matchup against the Falcons is what he needs to explode.
Value Plays/Punts
- Instead of cluttering this section, I discussed Guerendo's case for DFS usage above. The speedy rookie running back has the RB5 value score at DraftKings and the RB1 value score at FanDuel on this week's main slate.
- Brock Bowers has understandably garnered most of the headlines for the Raiders. Yet, Jakobi Meyers is in excellent form and a target hog in his own right. In Meyers's last four games, he's had a 40.9% air-yard share, 23.8% target share, 0.24 targets per route run, 33.0% first-read percentage, 28 receptions (7.0 per game), 87.8 receiving yards per game and 2.13 yards per route run. Sadly, Meyers didn't find the end zone in that stretch. Otherwise, he's played like a stud and has a mouthwatering matchup on the docket. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings and the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season. As a result, Meyers has the WR1 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 value score at FanDuel this week.
- Jerry Jeudy's salary would undoubtedly be higher if DraftKings and FanDuel released their main slates after his eruption on Monday Night Football in Week 13. Instead, it's a value, especially at FanDuel, relative to his production with Jameis Winston starting for the Browns. Since Week 8, Jeudy has had a 32.0% air-yard share, 21.9% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 24.1% first-read percentage, two end zone targets, 33 receptions (6.6 per game), 122.8 receiving yards per game, two touchdowns and 16.4 expected fantasy points per game.
- Juwan Johnson has done OK since Derek Carr returned from an injury in Week 9. In Johnson's last four games, he's had a 62.8% route participation rate, 14.1% air-yard share, 11.4% target share, 0.17 targets per route run, 15.6% first-read percentage, one end zone target, 12 receptions (3.0 per game), 32.3 receiving yards per game and one touchdown. Johnson should see an uptick in route participation since Taysom Hill was placed on the IR with a torn ACL. Even a slight uptick in opportunities should allow him to provide DFS gamers with value at his punt salary on both DFS outlets.
Week 14 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Justin Jefferson: 83.5 Receiving Yards Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.76x)
Justin Jefferson: 84.5 Receiving Yards - Higher(Underdog)
Jefferson's career-low 86.5 receiving yards per game this season are still above his yardage lines at Sleeper and Underdog. Moreover, he has a drool-inducing matchup this week. The Falcons have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game (151.6) to wide receivers this year. Perhaps more importantly, they can't pressure the sometimes frazzled Sam Darnold. Per Pro Football Reference, Atlanta has the sixth-lowest pressure rate (18.9%) this year. Darnold shouldn't be forced off his spot and should have opportunities to pepper his No. 1 wideout with targets. We project Jefferson to have 85.4 receiving yards against the Falcons.
James Cook: 66.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.75x)
James Cook: 65.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Cook has exceeded 66.5 rushing yards in six of 11 contests this season. In addition to LA's season-long struggles with running backs, they've faceplanted against the run lately. Since Week 10, the Rams have coughed up 162.3 rushing yards per game. Philadelphia's powerful offensive line and Barkley memorably steamrolled the Rams in Week 12, and Buffalo's offensive line is filled with road-grading blockers. Cook won't be confused with Barkley, but Buffalo's lead running back has the juice to take advantage of the rushing lanes his offensive line can create against LA's undersized defensive line. We project Cook to have 68.8 rushing yards in Week 14.
Chase Brown: 72.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.77x)
Chase Brown: 71.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
The Cowboys are woefully inept against the run. According to Sumer Sports, Dallas has coughed up the most Expected Points Added (EPA) per run this year. The Cowboys have also ceded 101.9 rushing yards per game to running backs this season.
Chase Brown has emerged as Cincinnati's workhorse running back and should run roughshod over the Cowboys. Since Week 9, Brown has handled 74 of Cincinnati's backfield's 75 rush attempts, rumbling for 79.5 rushing yards per game. Brown should have a positive game script since the Bengals are 5.5-point favorites. Thus, we project him to have 75.4 rushing yards against Dallas on Monday Night Football.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.