Heading into Week 16 we’re spoiled for choice with a whole range of ways to attack this slate. In particular, we want to be aware of a group of wide receivers in line for bounce-back games being ignored by the field.
Below you will find the best NFL DFS GPP picks you should consider for your tournament lineups, along with stacking and correlation advice.
Week 16 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 16.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) vs. Patriots | DraftKings: $8,700/FanDuel: $9,400
Where else to start but the presumptive MVP? Josh Allen‘s price is getting haughty and it’ll be a no-go for some people, but seriously, are we going to turn down a player who put up over 90 points in his last two games?
The Bills’ defense is what has brought this about with them ranking 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback since Week 9 and giving up 86 points in their last two games. Thanks to the defense being awful, Allen is having to go full Superman, and the results are glorious.
The Patriots are a little more lackluster than the Bills’ recent opponents but they’d love to spoil Buffalo’s recent run of form. At this point, not considering Allen feels criminal. The Bills are picking and choosing players for specific gameplans and this game feels more likely to involve the tight ends or Khalil Shakir than the outside receivers, who might have to deal with the excellent coverage skills of Christian Gonzalez.
Josh Allen let Khalil Shakir choose between a rushing or receiving touchdown before the play.
All-time teammate. ???? pic.twitter.com/b8UjpPLK2J
— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2024
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) vs. Rams | DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $7,300
Last week in this column we talked about Davante Adams and the idea of Aaron Rodgers double-stacks being in play. It’s fair to say they were successful. They can be again this week.
It might be tricky to pair Rodgers with both Garrett Wilson and Adams while gaining exposure to a Rams pass-catcher, but taking Rodgers and one of his receivers with Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua makes sense.
Neither team possesses a good pass defense with the Rams ranked 23rd in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and the Jets ranked 27th. The points total in this game is 46.5. With the way each offense is playing, combined with defensive ineptitude, this one could be fun.
Michael Penix Jr. (QB – ATL) vs. Giants | DraftKings: $4,500/FanDuel: $6,000
This might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but $4,500 is very cheap for a starting quarterback and Michael Penix’s opponents are awfully poor on defense. The Giants are allowing the fourth-highest yards per attempt since Week 10, giving up seven touchdowns and only gaining one interception in that period along with a solitary sack.
Penix has one of the breakout players of the 2024 season on his offense in Drake London. Peppering him with targets over the middle should take advantage of a defense missing safety Tyler Nubin, who was placed on injured reserve (IR) last week. Pairing Penix and London with Malik Nabers could lean into a narrative that both teams feed their top targets and they come good on that volume.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET) @ Bears | DraftKings: $7,500/FanDuel: $8,300
With no David Montgomery for the foreseeable future, we’ll get a chance to chase true ceiling outcomes for Jahmyr Gibbs. In three games Gibbs has played without Montgomery over the last two years, he’s averaged six more PPR points. He couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the Bears who have struggled against running backs all year. The Bears have allowed eight top-12 performances to opposing running backs, giving up the sixth-highest yards per carry, the seventh-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most total fantasy points to the position.
Stacking the Bears might be a stack too far but correlating Gibbs with a Bears pass-catcher makes sense if the idea is Gibbs is seeing plenty of touches and scoring and putting the Bears in a pass-heavy script. Since Week 8, Keenan Allen has had at least a 20% target share each week and leads the Bears in that period with 72 targets. Allen also leads the Bears in touchdowns during that spell with four, making him the obvious choice here.
Chase Brown (RB – CIN) vs. Browns | DraftKings: $7700/FanDuel: $8,200
Since Week 9, Chase Brown is the RB2. Only Saquon Barkley is averaging more than the 24 touches Brown sees per game. Brown has been a top-four back in four out of the six games he’s played without Zack Moss and has finished no worse than RB9 in that period.
With the Browns benching Jameis Winston, it makes taking a shot on any of their pass-catchers as a correlation piece very tricky, but the Bengals’ defense is poor and Jerry Jeudy has shown an ability to blow open games lately, if that proves too expensive, pivot to Elijah Moore as the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most slot yardage since Week 11.
Chase Brown since Zack Moss hit the IR pic.twitter.com/xHNPk6Qaoc
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 15, 2024
James Conner (RB – ARI) @ Panthers | DraftKings: $7,100/FanDuel: $8,400
Speaking of players in scintillating form, James Conner has truly rolled back the years in 2024. Don’t jinx him, but he is having his healthiest season ever, with career-highs in rush attempts all while getting better as the season progresses. Conner has had 63 touches over his last three games and peaked with RB7 and RB1 performances in his last two games.
Conner now gets a cupcake matchup against the Panthers, who are allowing the most running back fantasy points and rank 30th in run defense DVOA. The temptation might be to pair Conner with Adam Thielen, which is fine for DraftKings’ full PPR format, but shooting for upside with Jalen Coker might provide a higher ceiling.
Jerome Ford (RB – CLE) @ Bengals | DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $6,600
With no Nick Chubb for the rest of the season, it’s time for Jerome Ford truthers to unite. While he hasn’t helped you much in season-long contests, we’re getting Ford at a bargain DFS price this week. Ford averages 10.2 PPR points per game without Chubb and has a cupcake of a matchup against a Bengals defense that can’t stop anyone and ranks 27th in run defense DVOA.
D’Onta Foreman will likely be active and could potentially see some goal-line work, reducing Ford’s floor but in a high-octane game for the Bengals, Ford could see plenty of passing work and still find a way to give us a ton of points.
Alexander Mattison (RB – LV) vs. Jaguars | DraftKings: $5,100/FanDuel: $5,600
Sometimes we’ve got to get ugly to win DFS slates and few things could be uglier than looking into the backfield of one of the worst rushing teams in the league, but hear me out… Against the Falcons, the Raiders were in negative game script throughout and chasing a deficit, which meant things favored Ameer Abdullah (DraftKings: $4,600; FanDuel: $5,100) who is a more natural pass-catcher.
Things could shake out differently against the Jaguars. The Jags have allowed the third-most running back fantasy points this year, ranking 21st in run defense DVOA and haven’t had a single offensive snap leading by seven points since Week 7. If the game stays close, Mattison is likely to stay more involved and potentially capitalize against this poor team.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. Browns | DraftKings: $8,500/FanDuel: $9,500
In the last five games, Ja’Marr Chase has scored an utterly insane 166 PPR points, which is even more on DFS sites that reward yardage totals with bonuses. If you need any other reason to pay up for the leader in receptions (102), yards (1,413) and touchdowns (15) then consider that the Browns rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, allow the sixth-most wide receiver fantasy points and allow a league-high 11.92 yards per target on third downs.
I’d prefer to lean into the Bengals side of this game than try and add too many bring-backs, but Elijah Moore has an OK matchup if you have faith in Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) vs. 49ers | DraftKings: $6,900/FanDuel: $7,700
The Dolphins look set to be without Jaylen Waddle for a Week 16 matchup between two teams who had much loftier expectations than their current situations. While it might not be as spectacular as it could have been, there’s still value to be had.
Tyreek Hill averages 21.8 points in games without Waddle and increases his yardage average from 90.8 to 105.0, along with seeing his touchdowns jump from 0.52 to 0.67 per game. The Niners have given up three 20-point games to wide receivers since Week 11. Hill has scored 19+ points in three of his last five games. Nobody wants to play Hill but this price is too intriguing.
Jaylen Waddle (knee) non-participant Thursday https://t.co/rvcRcp8nJh via @leo_sells #FinsUp
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) December 20, 2024
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) @ Jets | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $8,300
Another wide receiver nobody wants to play is Cooper Kupp, who badly stung people in Week 15 with his first catchless game since 2019.
In DFS, it doesn’t pay to get too attached to anomalies like that catchless game and Kupp can bounce back quickly against a Jets defense ranked 27th against the pass and allows the second-most screen yardage per game – an area the Rams could utilize Kupp if they want to make sure he gets going again quickly.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA) vs. Vikings | DraftKings: $5,500/FanDuel: $7,500
This pick might not be for everyone, but how often do we get DK Metcalf at such a discount? Metcalf has averaged 61.8 yards per game over his last six games but hasn’t found the end zone, which has hampered his fantasy production somewhat.
Thankfully, for Metcalf, he finds himself in a matchup against a Vikings team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the fifth-most receiving yards on deep targets of 20 yards.
If Geno Smith is healthy enough to play, Metcalf is a potential salary-saving bargain on DraftKings, but less appealing on FanDuel. Aaron Jones might be the best correlation here, building on an idea of the Vikings controlling the game.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) @ Panthers | DraftKings: $6,200/FanDuel: $7,500
It seems impossible not to consider one of the two top young tight ends for lineups this week as they continue to sustain strong volume and wave in the next generation. Trey McBride might not have a receiving touchdown this year but he does have the ninth-most targets of any player and that volume is worth chasing.
Carolina allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends and has surrendered 10 touchdowns to the position this year, including three since Week 12. Maybe this is the week it all comes together? Kyler Murray stacks with McBride are interesting with people frustrated with Murray’s recent performances. You can also consider small correlations with Jalen Coker or Chuba Hubbard.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. Jaguars | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,700
The Desmond Ridder experience is thankfully over as Aidan O’Connell should return to the starting lineup for the Raiders in Week 16. Ridder provided Bowers with 35 receiving yards, which was his lowest total since Week 4, but Bowers can bounce back against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed five different tight ends to score over 15 points.
Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr. correlations allow you to lean into a pass-heavy script with the two most explosive rookies in the league.
“Sometimes the ball comes to me and I just catch it and run” is the most Brock Bowers thing ever.
Humble. Hard-working. Raider. Dawg. ????#GoDawgs | #DawgsInTheNFLpic.twitter.com/tPSgNDFAwz
— Aaron Leicht (@aaronleicht) December 19, 2024
Brenton Strange (TE – JAX) @ Raiders | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $5,200
You might have been forgiven for thinking the Jaguars weren’t missing their top tight end when Brenton Strange ran a route on 82% of dropbacks and had a 27% target share in Week 15. Strange caught 11 of his 12 targets for 73 yards and finished as the TE2 for the week.
Mac Jones has consistently targeted tight ends this year and the Raiders allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Double tight-end builds with Strange and Brock Bowers is probably something that won’t get too much consideration for many people but there’s no reason to shy away from it.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
