With the regular season beginning to wind down, there are only so many more opportunities to chase the jackpots in DFS GPP contests, but this week feels primed for some upside.
There are two running backs with incredible matchups and most people won’t want to spend all their allocation on them, but there are ways and several cheap stacks we can use around them to make things work.
Week 14 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 14.
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell (QB – LV) @ Buccaneers | DraftKings: $4,800/FanDuel: $6,700
Let’s get weird from the get-go and talk about Aidan O’Connell in a matchup that has more potential than the 45-point total projects. The Buccaneers have been a fun team this year but their major weakness is their pass defense, which ranks 24th in FTN’s DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric. They’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and given up the second-most receptions.
For fantasy purposes, the Bucs’ defense has been one to target as they have allowed the second-most quarterback fantasy points, the ninth-most wide receiver fantasy points and the seventh-most tight end fantasy points. This all fits perfectly for the Raiders, who possess a good receiver in Jakobi Meyers and a future All-Pro tight end in Brock Bowers. The Bucs are good against the run, and the Raiders suck at running the ball, so it makes too much sense to target the passing game here, not to mention O’Connell is coming off scoring 19.6 points against the Chiefs.
Correlation Suggestions: The Raiders’ passing game is condensed nicely to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. We can add Mike Evans if you have the budget for it or play Sterling Shepard, who has a positive matchup against the Bucs’ weak slot receivers.
Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell is back at it after one of his best career games in a loss to the Chiefs.
Solid zip on these passes from AOC.
????: By @Sean_Zittel, Vegas Sports Today#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/2eaqx9Zoz4
— Vegas Sports Today (@VegasSportsTD) December 4, 2024
Will Levis (QB – TEN) vs. Jaguars | DraftKings: $5,000/FanDuel: $6,600
Perhaps I’m being overly optimistic but this game feels primed for upside. The Jaguars have allowed the most quarterback fantasy points this year with nine players finishing in the top 12 against them, including six top-six finishes and seven quarterbacks who have recorded 20+ rushing yards against this defense.
The reason quarterbacks tend to have good rushing outputs is that the Jaguars play the second-most man coverage in the league. When you’re playing man, nobody tends to account for the quarterback. Will Levis has scored over 15 points I n his last four matchups. At this price, we can live with that kind of floor, but don’t be surprised if he cracks 20 points for the first time this year.
Correlation Suggestions: It’s a Calvin Ridley revenge game week and he tops the list of stacking suggestions. Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t connect with Mac Jones deep like we’d like last week but he still stayed useful and has the kind of ceiling we want in DFS tournaments.
Jameis Winston (QB – TB) @ Steelers | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $6,900
The Jameis Winston experience can be a bumpy one but his ceiling is undeniable with three top-eight fantasy finishes in his last five games. Of course, the other two finishes involved him scoring fewer than 13.5 fantasy points in both games, but that’s why Winston is being written up for tournaments and not cash games.
The Steelers are a good defense, ranking eighth against the pass in DVOA and allowing the fewest quarterback fantasy points, but Winston just put up 497 passing yards and four touchdowns on the Broncos, who rank seventh in pass DVOA.
Correlation Suggestions: Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku are the most consistent weapons here with Cedric Tillman missing time, but don’t ignore Elijah Moore, who will help you save salary for the running backs we’re about to discuss.
I need you to watch the video Jameis Winston recorded for this QB comp on ESPN ???? pic.twitter.com/5UOJw32JxK
— CJ Fogler ???? (@cjzero) December 3, 2024
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) vs. Panthers | DraftKings: $9,000/FanDuel: $10,000
It feels incredibly likely that a vast majority of teams will involve one of Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara. They both have incredible matchups. This in itself opens up a conversation about leverage for tournaments that we’ll get to as we go, but for now, let’s look at why they’re hard to ignore.
The Panthers have allowed the most running back fantasy points and rank 31st in rush defense DVOA. They’re the only team to allow 2,000 rushing yards. According to Fantasy Points, they stuff runs at the lowest rate in the league (33%). Barkley has one game below 100 all-purpose yards in his last seven and has as high of a ceiling as any player on this slate.
Correlation Suggestions: Against this Eagles defense, it’s hard to have faith in any Panther having value. Instead, consider pairing Barkley with another Eagles player like A.J. Brown or Grant Calcaterra. With most people ignoring this game after Barkley, there should be enough points for more than one player to hit.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) @ Giants | DraftKings: $8,000/FanDuel: $9,200
Alvin Kamara at a cheaper price has arguably just as strong of a matchup with the Giants allowing a league-high 5.1 yards per carry (YPC), the highest explosive run rate (8.2%) and the fourth-most rushing yards per game (145.8). Kamara is set to get a big boost to the offensive line with the return of center Erik McCoy.
The Saints running back has averaged an 87% running back opportunity share over the last five games. The Giants have allowed top-six finishes to running backs in four of their last five games. Without Taysom Hill on the field, Kamara can go nuclear.
Correlation Suggestions: Normally, we wouldn’t want to pair two running backs from opposing teams together. However, I’d consider it in this game as Tyrone Tracy has such a strong matchup, but more on that later.
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. Jaguars | DraftKings: $6,400/FanDuel: $7,500
The Jaguars can’t defend anything. They can’t defend the pass, ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA, and while they’re stronger against the run, they give up more fantasy points to running backs than wide receivers because teams can dictate the game script against them. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs with nine different backs scoring 18+ points against them.
In total, the Jaguars are allowing an average of 1.23 touchdowns per game to running backs and the ninth-most rushing yards per game (133.2). Tony Pollard has only one top-12 finish in his last four games, but the Titans have had tough games against the Chargers and Vikings in that stretch. Against Washington in Week 13, the Commanders were up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter, taking the game away from the ground. With the Jaguars moving Trevor Lawrence to injured reserve (IR), this game is unlikely to get out of hand and Pollard can get back into the top 12.
Correlation Suggestions: If the Titans control this game through the ground game it will force the Jaguars into a pass-heavy script, which likely leads most people towards the ceiling of Brian Thomas Jr., but another intriguing option is Parker Washington, who saw a season-high 28% target share in Week 13.
Tony Pollard saw 12 opportunities and handled 73% percent of the snaps in week 13, totaling 68 scoreless yards.
Do you trust him in week 14 against the #Duuuval Jags?
Last 3 weeks:
Theyve allowed the MOST points to opposing rbs per game (3️⃣0️⃣.4️⃣)pic.twitter.com/d7nW3r1NqJ
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) December 5, 2024
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG) vs. Saints | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $6,600
The high-value running backs steal all the headlines this week but Tyrone Tracy has an equally good matchup with the Saints ranking 32nd in run defense and allowing the seventh-most running back fantasy points. The Saints have allowed eight top-12 finishes to opposing backs, including five top-five finishes, giving up the second-highest yards per carry mark (5.05) and the seventh-most rushing yards per game.
Tyrone Tracy has seen slightly fewer rushing opportunities in recent weeks after his fumbling issues but it’s been offset by an increased role in the receiving game with seven targets in his last two games. This is also an area the Saints struggle to defend, having allowed 28+ receiving yards to five different running backs, including two since Week 10.
Correlation Suggestions: The obvious play would be Alvin Kamara and both players are explosive enough to not need to worry about them eating into the playing time the other team may get, but the more off-the-wall pairing is taking Marquez Valdes-Scantling and hoping he steals the touchdowns from Kamara and provides leverage against the field because of it.
Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF) vs. Bears | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $5,200
If you’re looking to play one of the expensive running backs this week, you’ll need to save salary somewhere. Isaac Guerendo at this price tag seems like the easiest pairing with either Kamara or Barkley. The way to beat the Bears is on the ground, typically, as their pass defense is still a top-10 unit. Against the run, though, they rank 30th in DVOA and allow the fourth-highest yards per carry rate (4.88) along with the sixth-highest explosive run rate.
Guerendo hasn’t had extensive work this year but with Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey on IR, 15+ touches seem likely. With Guerendo averaging 5.2 yards per carry on 42 attempts, there’s no reason not to trust him.
Correlation Suggestions: This might not be a game to attack heavily but there is some value in taking speculative shots at a Bears receiver with them all seeing an uptick in production since the change at offensive coordinator.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) vs. Panthers | DraftKings: $8,100/FanDuel: $9,300
If we zoom out for a moment, it’s possible there isn’t a single bigger leverage play this weekend than A.J. Brown. Everyone is aware of what Saquon Barkley is doing right now and everyone is aware of how bad the Panthers are at defending the run, but they’re also just a bad defense all round and rank 29th against the pass.
Brown hasn’t put up great fantasy numbers of late but he’s still averaging 87.3 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks. An eruption spot feels inevitable at some point. If Brown were to find his way to 100 yards and two touchdowns there are very few paths to Barkely also paying off his haughty cost and Brown lineups would instantly have leverage on those teams.
Correlation Suggestions: Pairing Brown with Alvin Kamara would elevate the leverage even further. Stacking Brown with Jalen Hurts is another avenue we can consider.
That slant to AJ Brown should be used 5-7 times per game.
— Mike Gill (@MikeGillShow) December 1, 2024
Mike Evans (WR – TB) vs. Raiders | DraftKings: $7,200/FanDuel: $8,400
The Bucs have talked about how important it is for them to see Mike Evans continue his 1,000-yard streak for the 11th straight year. To get there, he’ll need to average 95 yards per game for the rest of the season. The Bucs have nobody else to lean on in the passing game in the way they do with Evans, with him seeing a 35% target share in Week 13, which likely continues as they chase the record.
The Raiders’ pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA and likely won’t be able to stop Evans from recording 100 yards.
Correlation Suggestions: Baker Mayfield is a fine stacking addition to Evans and we can run things back with either Jakobi Meyers or Brock Bowers, but my preferred way to play this is the opposite way with Evans added to Aidan O’Connell stacks.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) @ Cardinals | DraftKings: $6,300/FanDuel: $8,000
Last week was disappointing for Jaxon Smith-Njigba with his 13.8% target share being the lowest he’s seen since Week 3, but he’s only had one single-digit PPR finish in that span and can bounce back here against an up-and-down Cardinals defense.
When the teams met in Week 12, Smith-Njigba scored 19.7 points and finished as the WR13 on the week. Over the last five games, Smith-Njigba has had 69+ yards in all of them.
Correlation Suggestions: Trey McBride is a man on a mission lately and the pairing of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and McBride will likely be underplayed as people try to save salary and pay up for the running backs.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) vs. Bears | DraftKings: $5,900/FanDuel: $7,100
It hasn’t been pretty for Deebo Samuel this year. He hasn’t surpassed 21 total yards in each of his last three games, despite being a weapon in the return game. With no Christian McCaffrey or Jordan Mason, though, perhaps Samuel is used more extensively to get the short game going once again, as well as the potential to be used in the ground game.
The Bears rank 10th against the pass in DVOA but 30th against the run. It’s a thin play, but there are worse ones to be had in tournaments. When Samuel hits, he usually hits in a big way.
Correlation Suggestions: I would see this as leverage away from the chalkier Isaac Guerendo than anything else.
DEEBO SAMUEL: "It's just been a rocky mountain for real. To be honest with you. With the injuries and all the other things that we've been having to go through this season… Our record don't show how really good we are as a team. Still believing in this locker room." pic.twitter.com/i7PPtxfc4N
— KNBR (@KNBR) December 4, 2024
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) @ Rams | DraftKings: $5,900/FanDuel: $6,500
In Week 13, Khalil Shakir saw a season-high target share of 38.9%. He hasn’t been below 26% in any of the last three games. The Bills’ wide receiver room hasn’t been productive outside of Shakir this year, with Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper dealing with injuries and Curtis Samuel just disappointing all around.
The Rams’ defense is one to target as they allow the 12th-most fantasy points and the fifth-highest yards per reception (11.9).
Correlation Suggestions: Kyren Williams has the best matchup on the Rams’ side of the ball. A small correlation stack of him and Shakir looks intriguing.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) @ Titans | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $6,900
So far this season we’ve typically seen Brian Thomas at his best when being targeted deep down the field, but that’s not something Mac Jones is particularly capable of. In Week, 13 Thomas got sick of the deep targets missing him, came closer to the line of scrimmage in the third quarter and turned a short pass to the middle of the field into 56 yards after the catch.
We know how dynamic Thomas is and he has the ceiling to win tournaments. No risk it, no biscuit.
Correlation Suggestions: The bold will stack Will Levis with Calvin Ridley and use Brian Thomas as their bring-back. Good luck.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV) @ Buccaneers | DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $6,700
Davante Adams hasn’t played for the Raiders since Week 3. Since then, Jakobi Meyers has averaged a 29% target share and 15.1 points per game, staying fantasy-relevant despite the turmoil at quarterback.
The Bucs allow the ninth-most wide receiver fantasy points, giving up 90+ yards to eight different receivers, including in both Weeks 10 and 13.
Correlation Suggestions: Stack. This. Game. Up.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) vs. Jets | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $5,900
The Week 12 blow-up game for Jaylen Waddle was followed by a more pedestrian 4/53 line and 11.3 total PPR points, but there’s reason to go back to the well on Waddle. In five career games against the Jets, Waddle averages 6.4 catches and 77.6 yards per game, with over 100 yards in each of the last two games they’ve played.
This Jets defense is also a far worse iteration than last year’s team as they rank 16th in pass defense DVOA with underperforming corners across their secondary. This is as risky of a play as they come this week with Waddle having had very little floor this season, but the price is alluring enough to make it worthwhile in large field contests.
Correlation Suggestions: This one screams individual play only.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – NO) @ Giants | DraftKings: $4,600/FanDuel: $5,800
Speaking of points chasing… Marquez Valdes-Scantling is running as pure as anyone in the league right now with seven catches for 232 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games. The Giants might struggle to defend the run but they also struggle against the pass, ranking 28th in DVOA.
With no other NFL-caliber wide receivers on the roster, the Saints should continue to keep Valdes-Scantling involved.
Correlation Suggestions: Pairing Marquez Valdes-Scantling with Tyrone Tracy is a cost-effective way to get access to points in this game.
MVS Drake memeing all his HOF quarterbacks in favor of Derek Carr
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) December 1, 2024
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) @ Buccaneers | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $8,000
Brock Bowers might be rising in price but it’s undeniable that he’s still a value compared to wide receivers at similar prices. Bowers, in his rookie season, leads all tight ends in targets (113), receptions (84) deep targets (eight) and targets per route run (0.28), not to mention he is also the PPR TE1 with 35 more points than George Kittle, who has twice as many touchdowns as Bowers’ four.
Bowers has been a top-five tight end in six of his last eight games, and eight times overall this year. The Bucs aren’t a good defense, ranking 24th against the pass in DVOA. They have allowed six top-six finishes to tight ends this year with four since the start of Week 7. The only players with more receiving yards than Bowers are Terry McLaurin (896), Justin Jefferson (1,038) and Ja’Marr Chase (1,142). We can keep playing Bowers even when he’s costing us significantly more than this.
Correlation Suggestions: Stack. This. Game. Up.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI) @ 49ers | DraftKings: $3,700/FanDuel: $5,200
Everyone is focused on the Bears involving the wide receivers more over the last three games but we’re only one game away from Cole Kmet seeing 10 targets and finishing with 13.4 PPR points.
The 49ers have been a solid defense against tight ends this year but haven’t faced too many good ones. Kmet can be adequate enough to pay off his cost here.
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