Bye weeks are a headache we don’t have to worry about in DFS. This week, in particular, there are a bunch of matchups we can lean into for DFS cash games. In these contests, we’re only battling half of the field, typically, so floor and ceiling get prioritized slightly differently.
There are two smash starts at running back and it might be tough to fit both in, so we’ll talk about some value plays to hopefully open up things and give you a choice. These are the best cash game picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 14.
Week 14 DFS Cash Game Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (QB – MIN) vs. Falcons | DraftKings: $6,100/FanDuel: $7,600
It’s fair to say Sam Darnold isn’t the most inspiring figure for fantasy football matchups and his future is unlikely to feature a supporting cast as good as this one, but right now, he does have that supporting cast and we can lean into it.
Darnold has been a top-12 quarterback in four of the last five games and has scored over 18 points in eight out of 12 games this year. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 23rd in FTN’s DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt. Darnold is a safe bet here as the Vikings start to look towards the playoffs.
QBs with a Passer Rating of ????+ in double-digit games this season:
– Lamar Jackson (10)
– Sam Darnold (10)End of list. pic.twitter.com/zRnTGAQd17
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 5, 2024
Will Levis (QB – TEN) vs. Jaguars | DraftKings: $5,000/FanDuel: $6,600
Maybe this is a trap game, but it feels difficult to be worried about Will Levis in a matchup against the worst pass defense in the league. The Jaguars have allowed the most quarterback fantasy points this season with nine players finishing in the top 12 against them, including six top-six finishes. Seven quarterbacks have rushed for 20+ yards against this defense.
The reason quarterbacks tend to have good rushing outputs is because the Jaguars play the second-most man coverage in the league. When you’re playing man, nobody tends to account for the quarterback. Levis has scored over 15 points in his last four matchups. At this price, we can live with that kind of floor. However, don’t be surprised if Levis cracks 20 points for the first time this year.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) vs. Panthers | DraftKings: $9,000/FanDuel: $10,000
It seems impossible we can approach cash games this week without one of Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara, who both have incredible matchups. The Panthers have allowed the most running back fantasy points and rank 31st in rush defense DVOA. They’re the only team to allow 2,000 rushing yards this season. According to Fantasy Point, they stuff runs at the lowest rate in the league (33%). Barkley has one game below 100 all-purpose yards in his last seven. He’s as safe as they come.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) @ Giants | DraftKings: $8,000/FanDuel: $9,200
Alvin Kamara at a cheaper price has arguably just as strong of a matchup with the Giants allowing a league-high 5.1 yards per carry (YPC), the highest explosive run rate (8.2%) and the fourth-most rushing yards per game (145.8).
Kamara is set to get a big boost to the offensive line with the return of center Erik McCoy. Kamara has averaged an 87% running back opportunity share over the last five games. The Giants have allowed top-six running back finishes in four of their last five games. Without Taysom Hill on the field, Kamara can go ham.
Alvin Kamara is 106 yards short of having his first 1,000-yard rushing season.
Really good shot he gets there on Sunday.
Erik McCoy and Lucas Patrick are trending to play.
Giants have been destroyed on the ground and just lost Dexter Lawrence for the rest of the season.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 3, 2024
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) vs. Raiders | DraftKings: $6,600/FanDuel: $7,700
For the last three weeks, Bucky Irving has been a top-seven PPR back. In each of the last two weeks, he’s gone over 27 points and now averages 5.3 YPC this season. The Raiders rank 22nd against the run and allow the 10th-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Irving ranks third in yards after contact generated per attempt among running backs with 50+ attempts. Irving had a season-high 25 carries in Week 13 and it looks like he’s taken over the No. 1 RB role since the bye. He is a safe bet here in a fun matchup.
Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF) vs. Bears | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $5,200
At this price, it’s hard to build a strong argument against any running back who could see a large volume of touches, and it gets even harder in a prime matchup. The way to beat the Bears is on the ground, typically, as their pass defense is still a top-10 unit, but against the run, they rank 30th in DVOA and allow the fourth-highest yards per carry (4.88) along with the sixth-highest explosive run rate.
Isaac Guerendo hasn’t had extensive work this year but with Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve (IR), 15+ touches seem likely. With Guerendo averaging 5.2 YPC on 42 attempts, there’s no reason not to trust him.
Drake London (WR – ATL) @ Vikings | DraftKings: $6,400/FanDuel: $7,900
Last week, Drake London saw a season-high 42% target share. He is well on track for career highs in almost everything that matters for fantasy football. The Vikings are a good defense, ranking top-two in many metrics, but because they put teams in pass-heavy scripts, they give up a decent amount of fantasy production, including the most fantasy points to wide receivers.
In Week 12, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore both finished as top-five receivers against this defense. Seven different wideouts have put up 100 yards against the Vikings. Even Marvin Harrison found the end zone against them in Week 13. London is in a smash spot here.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN) vs. Jaguars | DraftKings: $5,700/FanDuel: $6,300
Getting a Week 14 revenge game for Calvin Ridley feels fun. Especially when we consider the Jaguars rank 32nd in pass defense and give up the third-most fantasy points to the position, along with being down Tyson Campbell, who is their best cornerback.
Ridley has finished WR20 or worse in each of the last three games, but hasn’t been below a 19% target share since Week 4. He should be a fine play here.
Calvin Ridley sees the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, who are arguably (or rather unarguably) the worst pass defense in the league. They are 32nd in EPA/DB, and allowing the most most YPA in the league (8.4).
Furthermore, despite being a 2-High heavy unit for most of the year,…
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) December 6, 2024
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV) @ Buccaneers | DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $6,700
The total for this game is 45 points, but it feels like there is some sneaky potential for points with Tampa having a poor defense much like the Raiders. Davante Adams hasn’t played for the Raiders since Week 3. Since then, Jakobi Meyers has averaged a 29% target share and 15.1 points per game, staying fantasy-relevant despite the turmoil at quarterback.
The Bucs allow the ninth-most wide receiver fantasy points, giving up 90+ yards to eight different receivers, including in both Weeks 10 and 13.
Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) vs. Bears | DraftKings: $5,200/FanDuel: $6,400
The Niners are beaten up pretty badly right now, with All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams unlikely to take the field anytime soon due to bereavement, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve and Deebo Samuel looking out of gas.
The brightest development for the Niners this year has been the emergence of Jauan Jennings, who looks capable of being a true No. 2 WR in the league. The Bears are a better pass defense than run defense, but at this price, it shouldn’t be a concern with Jennings having scored over 16 PPR points in two of his last four games. With no McCaffrey, don’t be surprised if the passing game has to step things up a notch.
Elijah Moore (WR – CLE) @ Steelers | DraftKings: $4,800/FanDuel: $5,600
The Browns’ evolution has swept everyone involved in the passing game along with it, with Elijah Moore scoring well enough to be a top-28 wide receiver in four of the last six games and finishing with over 18 points in two of the last three.
From Weeks 1-6, Moore averaged 15.8 yards per game. Since then, he has averaged 58.8. In full PPR formats, he has become particularly viable. The Steelers are a solid pass defense but we know Jameis Winston will bring plenty of volume. That can positively negate the matchup for Moore, particularly if Cedric Tillman is out again.
Sterling Shepard (WR – TB) vs. Raiders | DraftKings: $4,000/FanDuel: $5,400
As usual, people have wanted to play the shiny new thing in Jalen McMillan but it’s Sterling Shepard who has been the better value. Over the last two weeks, Shepard has seen target shares of 23% and 20% while McMillan hasn’t topped 8% in either.
Shepard hasn’t been overly productive but he’s involved in the red zone and has averaged 7.1 points per game, which is almost enough to make this punt play worthwhile with the expensive running backs on the slate.
The Raiders have surrendered the third-most touchdowns to the slot as well as the third-highest yards per target and the fourth-highest yards per reception. Shepard has averaged 62% of his snaps from the slot over the last four weeks. If he pays off, this is likely how.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) @ Buccaneers | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $8,000
Sticking with the same matchup, Brock Bowers might be rising in price but it’s undeniable he’s still a value compared to wide receivers at similar prices. Bowers, in his rookie season, leads all tight ends in targets (113), receptions (84), deep targets (eight) and targets per route run (0.28), not to mention he is also the PPR TE1 with 35 more points than George Kittle, who has twice as many touchdowns as Bowers’ four.
Bowers has been a top-five tight end in six of his last eight games, and eight times overall this year. The Bucs aren’t a good defense, ranking 24th against the pass in DVOA. They have allowed six top-six finishes to tight ends this year with four since the start of Week 7. The only players with more receiving yards than Bowers are Terry McLaurin (896), Justin Jefferson (1,038) and Ja’Marr Chase (1,142). We can keep playing Bowers even when he’s costing us significantly more than this.
Brock Bowers offensive rookie of the year and it’s not particularly close
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 4, 2024
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) vs. Falcons | DraftKings: $4,300/FanDuel: $6,300
The Vikings’ offense has awoken after a mid-season slump and the continuing fumbles from Aaron Jones are forcing the passing game to take things up a notch. T.J. Hockenson’s form has been patchy with three performances as the TE26 or worse, but he’s also put up two TE5 finishes and went over 70 yards in both of those games.
That kind of yardage and the targets that go along with it are hard to find at the tight end position and are worth chasing. At this price, Hockenson is simply too cheap.
Grant Calcaterra (WR – PHI) vs. Panthers | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $4,300
It sounds increasingly likely Dallas Goedert could be heading for his second IR stint of the year after picking up a knee injury in the win over the Ravens in Week 13. Grant Calcaterra acquitted himself well in the games Goedert missed earlier this year with eight or more points in three of the four games.
The Panthers allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Calcaterra could easily rack up double-digit points here.
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