NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways (2024)

Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games.

Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions.

I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

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Week 15 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool that is freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Terry McLaurin‘s 179 air yards down to Adonai Mitchell‘s 66. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 15. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 15 Air Yards Data

Terry McLaurin Almost Broke Week 15

In Week 15, Terry McLaurin finished the game against the Saints with seven catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns. It was one of the best performances of the week, without a doubt. However, he was inches from having one of the biggest days in wide receiver history. His three targets from Jayden Daniels he didn't catch all bounced off his fingertips. All were 30+ yard bombs. All were at the end zone.

Not that anyone is complaining about 26.3 PPR fantasy points in the playoffs, but these near misses just show how much the Commanders are featuring McLaurin in the passing game. McLaurin now has a 23% target share, but more importantly, a 43% air yards share. That number ranks fourth in the NFL behind just Calvin Ridley, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. Just in the past three weeks, McLaurin's target share is over 29%. Washington is going to try and ride his talent to an NFC Wild Card berth.

Malik Nabers Needs Some YAC

It's not often you see someone with 10+ receptions but with just 82 receiving yards. Especially not from a downfield threat like Malik Nabers. This isn't Wan'Dale Robinson we are talking about here (who you could certainly see getting 80 yards on 10 catches). Nabers had 14 total targets for 86 air yards, but only 82 receiving yards. Only DeVonta Smith had a lower average depth of target (aDOT). His inability to get yards after the catch in Week 15 was something that held him back from a truly monstrous game for fantasy managers.

However, this lack of yards after the catch is not a new problem for Nabers this year. Consider this: Nabers has 140 targets (second in the NFL) and 90 receptions (fourth in the NFL). However, he has just 290 yards after the catch. Those 290 yards after the catch are the same number as Marvin Mims Jr. The issue is that Nabers has 140 targets on the season and Mims has just 34. Nabers has 90 catches. Mims has 23. This is partially a quarterback problem as a better passer could get him the ball with space more often. Next season, we will all be looking for Nabers to combine the usage and opportunity with more accurate targets.

Courtland Sutton Bounceback Incoming

If ever there was a case to be made for air yards to call for a bounceback game for a player, it would be Courtland Sutton. His 133 air yards were seventh among all players in Week 15. His nine targets were in the top 20. But among the 27 players with at least eight targets, Sutton's three receptions were 26th. Jauan Jennings caught just two balls during whatever that was that happened in that horrific Thursday Night Football game last week.

Sutton is now second among all players in air yards share (46.1%), ninth in targets (113) and seventh in target share (26.7%). He faces a tough test against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16. The Broncos are fighting for a playoff spot and will need to ride Sutton as hard as they can since their running game has fallen off a cliff. Sutton has averaged 10 targets per game over his last seven contests and Bo Nix is unlikely to throw three interceptions or have just 3.9 yards per pass attempt in the games ahead.

Colts' Race to the Bottom

If you scroll to the bottom of this week's air yards list, you will see three Indianapolis Colts wide receivers in the bottom six for air yards. The Colts like to run the ball first and foremost, so these receivers low down the list are not a complete surprise. But the fact these receivers saw 21 targets between them shows how shallow and inefficient Anthony Richardson has been as a passer. When Michael Pittman is seeing nine targets for 67 air yards with a low 7.4-yard aDOT, but only ending up with 58 passing yards, that's a quarterback problem and not a receiver problem.

For the rest of the season, it's going to be hard to rely on Colts receivers if Richardson remains inaccurate (47% completion percentage on the season). For those of us who thought Josh Downs and Michael Pittman would take a leap alongside Richardson, it's been mostly a bust this year. Now that Richardson is mostly throwing short, but still not connecting? This passing attack looks like an abject disaster and untrustworthy in the last two rounds of the fantasy playoffs.