Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games.
Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions.
I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.
Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games.
Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions.
I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.
Week 14 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool that is freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Amari Cooper‘s 254 air yards down to George Kittle‘s 48. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 14. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.
Top Takeaways From Week 14 Air Yards Data
Amari Cooper Part of the Plans
Week 14 will be remembered as the time when the Buffalo Bills finally unleashed Amari Cooper as part of their offensive game plan. After weeks of two, five, three and three targets, Cooper saw a massive 14 looks in the shootout with the Rams, leading to 254 air yards and 95 receiving yards. With eight targets not caught there was room for much more, but the most encouraging thing to see was how involved he was in a game where Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel all also played.
However, perhaps the most impressive thing about Cooper's 12 targets was that he did it while playing on only 53% of the snaps. That is his high-water mark while with the Bills, but also shows he hasn't reached his ceiling there yet. It will remain to be seen how the Bills incorporate Cooper when Keon Coleman returns. For now, it looks like Cooper is going to continue to be a major part of the offense.
Xavier Legette Levels Up
Xavier Legette's Week 14 will likely be remembered as the week when he dropped the potential game-winning touchdown, but from a macro perspective, this was a very big step for the rookie. He saw eight targets (second-most this season), 128 air yards and a 35% air yards share. Only a stingy Eagles defense prevented him from making more catches and having a massive day.
Since Week 10, Legette has had a 20% target share and a 28.4% air yards share. His role has been increasing since Diontae Johnson left town. As Bryce Young has started to improve, so has the quality of targets thrown Legette's way. Looking at even more recent data, Legette's air yards share since Week 12 is 29%. He is a player on the rise and it will be fun to see how he and Bryce Young grow together.
Welcome (Back) to Miami
It was just like old times again in Miami with both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle finishing in the top 20 in air yards, both getting over 10 targets, both with more than 100 air yards and both scoring a touchdown. Lately, it has been the Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane show in Miami, but the Dolphins went back to the plan of the past two years and fed their two stars against the New York Jets.
For Hill, it was his first 100-yard game since Week 1, which almost seems unfathomable. Waddle just missed 100 yards for the second time in three games. Smith and Achane were still able to combine for 89 yards and two touchdowns. Over the past three weeks, Miami is first in the NFL with a 71% pass-play percentage and Tua Tagovailoa is the number one quarterback in fantasy. They finally realize their run game is broken and the passing training wheels are officially off. Buckle up for the fantasy playoffs.
Lamb Chopped Again With Low Air Yards
After about the first quarter and a half of Monday Night Football, it looked like CeeDee Lamb was headed for one of his best games ever. He had over 70 yards and a touchdown and was targeted by Cooper Rush on just about every dropback. Then, unfortunately, it just stopped. Lamb would finish the game with just seven targets, 48 air yards and a pathetic 6.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT). That number was the fourth-lowest among all players in the list above.
Lamb did most of the work himself to get his 93 yards on just 48 air yards. He was able to escape some tackles even when Rush would hit him near the line of scrimmage with defenders draped all over him. It continues what has been a largely disappointing set of performances since Dak Prescott was injured. Since Week 9, Lamb has a combined 6.2-yard aDOT — seventh among Dallas Cowboys wide receivers and 134th among all wide receivers in the league. At least he is still getting the targets and can make up for it in volume.
