NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways (2024)

Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games.

Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.

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Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions.

I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

Week 13 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool that is freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Brian Thomas‘ 210 air yards down to Justin Watson‘s 69. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 13. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 13 Air Yards Data

The Jaguars Air it Out

The Jacksonville Jaguars are often trailing in games (they are 2-10, after all), and their running game has been mostly inefficient all season (31st in the league over the last three weeks with 64.7 rush yards per game). That means the team is going to throw a lot. On the season, they are ninth in the league with a 59.6% passing play percentage. That has jumped up to 61.8% over the last three weeks as well. This should ultimately benefit players like Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington down the stretch, right? Well, maybe.

You see both Washington and Thomas in the top seven of total air yards in Week 13. Their 361 combined air yards are more than any other set of teammates (even beating Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore). That's the good news. The bad news is that neither were in the top eight in receiving yards this week, and Brian Thomas Jr. was down at number 18. You may be able to guess the reason why: Accuracy.

For the season, Trevor Lawrence is 22nd in accuracy rating and 33rd in true completion percentage. Mac Jones' true completion percentage is lower than Trevor Lawrence's. Unfortunately, no new quarterback is coming through the door for the end of the season, so this might be the roller coaster we get with these two receivers for the last four weeks of the fantasy season.

The Sad Case of Calvin Ridley

You may not realize it, but Calvin Ridley leads all NFL players in air yards this season. His 1,441 air yards are 60 more than anyone else on the year (Courtland Sutton is second), but he has only 671 receiving yards to show for it. That number puts him at WR23 on the year. It's quite a shocking difference, and it's compounded by the touchdown problem as well. Calvin Ridley has three touchdowns this season on 1,441 air yards and 87 targets. Of course, there is a big Nick Westbrook-Ikhine-sized spotlight shining on the problem as well.

It's become well-documented this week that Westbrook-Ikhine has eight touchdowns on just 20 receptions on the season. It's a crazy pace and the polar opposite of Ridley's problem. Ridley is getting a 50.7% air yards share (first in the NFL) and a 26.6% target share (sixth in the NFL), but none of the production. Why are Will Levis and Mason Rudolph so accurate with Westbrook-Ikhine but not with Ridley? I have no explanation. However, continue to trust the process and the data and things should even be out before the season ends.

Contextualizing Travis Kelce

It's hard to say that Travis Kelce has had a "bad" season as he plays at age 35. He is the TE7 in half-PPR fantasy points per game and has not missed a game this year (only a couple of top-10 tight ends can say that). But he hasn't had a typical "Travis Kelce" season that justified him being an early-round draft selection. Week 13 highlighted some of the issues Kelce is having, especially compared to his tight end peers who are proving to be much more reliable, athletic, and dynamic.

Sorted by the players on this list with the lowest average depth of target (aDOT), five of the bottom six are tight ends. That is to be expected. These guys can't run like Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill. Their passes are typically much closer to the line of scrimmage. That plays out here as Kelce, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, Brock Bowers and Hunter Henry all have aDOTs below 8.0 yards. The issue is, however, all these other guys are turning their opportunities into explosive plays or touchdowns. Kelce has not.

Njoku got several end zone targets on Monday night and caught two touchdowns. Jonnu Smith has become a master of yards after the catch and ended with 113 receiving yards and a score. Same for Brock Bowers (140 yards). Travis Kelce got 79 air yards on 13 targets and did not do much with them. Less than 10 yards a catch. No touchdowns. It's not bad, it's just not typical Travis Kelce.

Cardinals Make Good on Marvin Harrison Jr. Promise

Before their Week 13 game against Minnesota, the coaching staff for Arizona said they were going to make a purposeful effort for Marvin Harrison Jr. to "get him going." I would say they held true to their promise and gave him about as much usage as one player could expect in a game. Harrison finished with 12 targets, 178 air yards, a touchdown, a 28% target share and 58% air yards share. You might notice I left out receptions and receiving yards. He only had five and 60 of those in this game, but that just goes to show how much bigger this game could have been for Harrison.

Kyler Murray was under pressure the entire game from the Minnesota front line. He was scrambling and making throws on the run all day. That led to a lot of inaccuracy for Murray, and Harrison felt the impact. The silver lining, however, is that the Cardinals could potentially turn this level of usage into a regular thing. The Cardinals have some soft games coming up over the next five weeks, which means Harrison could finally emerge as the first-round wide receiver everyone drafted him to be, even as a rookie.