Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a bit of a wonky week given the Christmas slate but we are back to our regularly scheduled programming. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a seven-game or nine-game slate tonight depending on the site you use, but I’m going to focus more on the overlap between DraftKings and FanDuel. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,300
- FanDuel: $11,400
For the highest projected player on the slate tonight we have the point guard out of Oklahoma City. They’re five-point favorites with a 227 total. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sets up to smash here. He’s been scoring more, playing more and has a higher usage rate over the last month or so during his team’s eight-game winning streak.
Gilgeous-Alexander projects shy of 20% rostership. He has scored 59+ points in four of his last six games, which is right around where you need him to get to for some serious cash considerations. The Pacers offer a pace-up spot with a bottom-10 defense in the league. He’s a better play on DraftKings but is great for GPP or cash lineups tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $8,800
It’s not every day Alperen Sengun is one of my core plays but the situation calls for it here. He’s consistently playing 31 minutes a night and goes against the Pelicans, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers.
Yves Missi is still getting his feet underneath him on the other side of the ball and the Pelicans across the board are depleted with the third-worst defense in the league.
Sengun offers high-floor/high-ceiling appeal and projects north of 45 DraftKings points in this matchup. A ceiling output putting him over 60 is well within reason as I expect the usage to go towards the frontcourt more against New Orleans.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,600
I understand Ja Morant has been in and out of lineups this season with injuries but without an injury designation tonight he’s set to smash. This is the second-highest total on the slate and with a 34% usage rate over the last two weeks, I have to get a good amount of exposure to what Morant has to offer.
Memphis is the fastest-paced team in the NBA and we’ve yet to see that jaw-dropping ceiling output for Morant this season. I’m not a “feel it in my bones” type of guy but tonight I have goosebumps that something big is coming. Even if my spidey sense is off, the projections are nice, as he doesn’t project for particularly high rostership numbers, making him even more appealing.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $5,800
Yves Missi has been on the list of DFS plays a lot over the last two to three weeks. If his price stays below $6,000, he’s going to keep projecting well for this Pelicans team falling apart at the seams. He’s consistently playing 33 minutes per game, averaging over 30 DraftKings points in the last week, and projects even higher tonight.
Houston isn’t the friendliest of matchups but Missi will see the court for so much of the game his floor is risen in this matchup. His 25th percentile output is still 25 fantasy points, which isn’t great, but doesn’t burn you. With an equal likelihood he gets to his 75th percentile output over 40 fantasy points, he projects for high rostership and makes for a great cash option.
- DraftKings: $7,100
- FanDuel: $7,300
In one of the most DFS-friendly matchups that you will see the entire season, you could argue a lot of Hawks and Bulls players are solid cash options. My top choice is Zach LaVine. His dual guard-forward status on both sites makes it easy for lineup construction without breaking the bank.
LaVine is priced at one of the lowest spots he’s been all season but is still averaging 35 fantasy points a night, playing 32 minutes a game with a 24% usage rate. Against a Hawks team that will pace up the third-fastest-paced Bulls with a sub-par defense, I’m all in, even if the Bulls’ offense leaves more to be desired. I project LaVine for around 37 fantasy points. He shouldn’t score below 30, which lines him up as an easy click for cash lineups.
- DraftKings: $10,000
- FanDuel: $10,100
Charlotte sets up as a great team to roster going against the Washington Wizards tonight. The Wizards have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, are a big pace-up spot and LaMelo Ball has been dealing since returning from injury. He should do the same tonight.
Even in a floor game against Houston, he managed 45 DraftKings points. He scored 69 points in the game before that in Washington. I’m not expecting another ceiling output like that but it is certainly on the table. I project him just north of 50 points tonight. Given the high possession rate and his usage, he makes for an ideal option in any type of contest you choose to enter.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,200
This is one of my rare higher-owned GPP plays but the situation could not be better. The Hawks and Bulls are two of the top three-paced teams in the league with the game total a slate-high 243. Rostership projections range for Trae Young but my bet is the questionable tag by his name is going to scare some people off.
Of course, he does have to play for this to make sense. He’s likely to put up a ceiling game at home against Chicago and I want that boom potential. Atlanta is going to be a fun team to roster here, it’s just a matter of whether Young’s status opens up or not.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $8,000
RJ Barrett projects a lot better on FanDuel but as a pure leverage/GPP play he’s much better on DraftKings. The Duke product only projects for around two or three percent rostership on DraftKings. His dual eligibility status and a ceiling north of 60 fantasy points make him a great leverage play.
Toronto, in general across either slate, is going to see quite low rostership outside of Scottie Barnes. Memphis may have a top-five defense in the league but they are also the fastest-paced team. With the extra possessions and some shots falling their way here and there, Barrett can easily get there. His low rostership draws me to him like a magnet, especially in large-field GPPs.
Jabari Smith Jr. (PF, C – HOU)
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $6,000
Facing the walking-wounded New Orleans Pelicans, Houston is going to see a lot of rostership tonight. But Jabari Smith Jr. seems to be falling through the cracks. His optimal and ceiling output percentages are way higher — around a 20% chance for a “boom” game — than his projected rostership coming in sub-10%.
Smith is already projected for around 30 fantasy points, which is 5X value, but his 95th percentile output returns 50+ DraftKings points, which is well within reason considering the Pelicans have a bottom-three NBA defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,600
- FanDuel: $4,200
For the clear best value on the DraftKings slate we have Trevelin Queen. Hopefully, the 207 total will scare away some rostership because Queen seems to be the clear best early-look value on this slate before we get injury news. Queen is coming off his first start of the season with a 30-fantasy point outing.
He only saw a $300 price bump for what should be his second start tonight. It’s an uglier matchup with the low total but you don’t need much out of Queen for him to be optimal. He’s projected for around 30 points but showed he can put up numbers when he’s on the floor.
Expect Queen to be the highest-rostered player on DraftKings. He comes with some risk given the game state and his level of play but makes for a fine GPP or cash option. To keep it short and sweet, your other Orlando value option is Tristan da Silva given how banged up the Magic are.
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $5,200
For arguably one of the best games of the slate for DFS we have the Charlotte center as another punt option at the position. Mark Williams has been averaging over 27 DraftKings points per game and is still priced under $5,000 in an awesome matchup.
Washington is the second-worst defense with the fourth-highest pace of play in the league, a big uptick for Charlotte. Williams’ minutes are a bit concerning. When he’s on the floor, though, his usage rate is around 25%. The Wizards have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers. He’s more of a GPP slot for me but still projects for solid value on either slate. Your other solid center value option is Clint Capela, who also gets a great matchup in Chicago.
- DraftKings: $5,100
- FanDuel: $6,200
Again, look at injuries when lineup news comes out because I expect more value to open up closer to lock. Myles Turner, for example, is questionable tonight. If he is out, Thomas Bryant at the minimum price is going to be a smash value spot.
Right now, however, Santi Aldama is a great 5X-plus value for the Grizzlies. He may not gain the start but he’s been consistently averaging 26 minutes per game. With a near 240 total, there will be plenty to go around for Aldama to get to his projected 30 fantasy points.
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