NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (12/30)

Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season so far as we celebrate the holiday season. It’s almost the New Year but there are some general strategy items to keep in mind for DFS that stay the same.

If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a nice seven-game slate tonight, so it’s the perfect combination to get creative but find some easy chalk.

In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)

DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $12,400

I’m not sure if there is much I can say here that you haven’t heard before. But in case you live under a rock, Nikola Jokic has the highest ceiling of any DFS player on today’s slate and probably any slate that he is on. His price has steadily risen the entire season, even starting at $11,000 because he can post 70+ fantasy point efforts without much difficulty as he has done 11 different times this season.

Jokic has gone over 90 points twice, which means he is the most necessary player to have in your lineup if he reaches his ceiling. And I haven’t even mentioned the matchup. The Jazz have the worst defense in the league and have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Jokic sets up to smash today and I expect him to be rostered as such for a solid slate for centers.

Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK)

DraftKings: $8,400
FanDuel: $8,600

After coming off a 72-fantasy point outing on Saturday against Washington, I’m going to go out on a limb and say tonight is another solid smash spot for Jalen Brunson, who sees the same matchup. He might not get to 70+ again but going past 50 is well within reason.

The Wizards are the fourth-fastest-paced team with the second-most fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. It’s a solid matchup and Brunson has done well against Washington this year. Considering he’s relatively lower priced for the ceiling he offers and will be highly rostered but with the additional possessions the Knicks will see, Brunson is a smash option.

Miles Bridges (PF – CHA)

DraftKings: $7,300
FanDuel: $6,900

It’s weird seeing Miles Bridges as the go-to guy in Charlotte but that’s what the lineup looks like tonight. Not only has Bridges seen more usage and minutes over the last two weeks but he faces the Chicago Bulls, one of the friendliest matchups on the slate tonight.

The Bulls are the third-fastest-paced team in the league with a bottom-five-ranked defense. They allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards and are a little banged up. There will be a lot of value from the Hornets but Bridges is one of the highest ceiling players. Don’t be afraid to roster him across different contests.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Trey Murphy (SG, SG – NOP)

DraftKings: $6,900
FanDuel: $7,000

I can’t say I expected Trey Murphy to be my go-to guy for cash games when the season started but here we are. Over the last five games, Murphy has averaged 40 fantasy points a night. Given the Pelicans’ current roster construction, he sets up well tonight.

Given his dual forward-guard status it makes it easier to slot him into your DFS lineups, so expect some rostership. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged over a 25% usage rate and is scoring at a much higher clip with 26 a night. Considering he’s posted 40+ fantasy points in three of the last four games, he’s a great cash game value tonight.

James Harden (PG – LAC)

DraftKings: $9,100
FanDuel: $8,700

With over a 30% usage rate while seeing the floor for 35+ minutes against a bottom-five defensive unit, there’s not much more I need to say about James Harden as a cash option.

It feels like 40 fantasy points is Harden’s floor in a pace-up spot. He projects close to 48 points tonight. He will be much more highly rostered on FanDuel and is an excellent play there but is a solid cash option on either site.

Andrew Wiggins (SF, PF – GSW)

DraftKings: $5,400
FanDuel: $6,100

Given his price tag, Andrew Wiggins is going to be a highly rostered player tonight, projecting for around 20% across lineups. For cash contests, I’ll gladly take that. Wiggins has been solid, settling into his role with over 30 minutes a night with double-digit scoring.

Cleveland may not be the best matchup but I do buy into narratives more with the NBA, so going against your former team should give a little steam for the Kansas product. Wiggins projects for just under 30 DraftKings points, which makes him an excellent value option at a more dry position group.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Collin Sexton (PG, SG – UTA)

DraftKings: $6,100
FanDuel: $6,200

With a total of 240, the masses will roster Denver at a high clip tonight, but Collin Sexton is a great leverage pivot and/or bring-back option for all your Denver rostership. He’s just above $6,000 on both sites and has been averaging 40 DraftKings points a night in his last five games with a capacity for over 50

Even projecting him for around 30 points gives us roughly 5X value, but he has an even higher ceiling. Keyonte George is questionable. If he’s out, Sexton projects even better. Aaron Gordon is missing for a middle-of-the-pack Denver defense, so I’m not too scared of the other side of the ball. Sexton projects for sub-10% rostership tonight and is dependent on scoring, so keep him to GPP-only lineups.

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – NYK)

DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $9,600

Karl-Anthony Towns may not have the highest ceiling among centers on the slate but he’s in the argument for second. With the rostership expected to go to Jokic, Towns’ rostership is projected closer to 10% on DraftKings and 12% on FanDuel.

Towns is an excellent option to get to in a matchup where he should slice and dice. Washington has allowed the most points to opposing centers and the Knicks are 12-point favorites in a game where the starting five should all eat. The one with the highest ceiling/lowest rostership combo is clearly Towns.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Vasilije Micic (PG – CHA)

DraftKings: $4,600
FanDuel: $4,100

Charlotte might be the highest-rostered team on the slate tonight with the number of price-down and high-value options in the starting lineup. Vasilije Micic is one of them. In his last start on Saturday, he tallied 26 DraftKings points — solid but a lot more impressive considering it came against Oklahoma City.

Playing at home against Chicago is a much different story. Flip the head on defensive rankings with the Bulls allowing the third-most fantasy points a game to opposing point guards. Micic is an awesome play on DraftKings but is set to absolutely smash on FanDuel tonight. I expect him to be one of the higher-rostered lower-priced options. If you’re hesitant, throw a dart on any other Hornets player.

Julian Strawther (SG, SF – DEN)

DraftKings: $3,400
FanDuel: $3,900

As the sub-$4,000 option with a bit more risk coming off the bench, we have Julian Strawther. He’s been playing 20+ minutes a night with decent usage while on the court. Denver is a 7-point favorite, which isn’t the biggest spread, but helps the blowout chances and provides the opportunity for Strawther to see additional minutes.

Strawther projects for just over 20 fantasy points, which would be great given his punt price tag.

Patrick Williams (PF – CHI)

DraftKings: $4,200
FanDuel: $4,500

Your bring-back option for all your Charlotte rostership, if you go that route, Patrick Williams. This Hornets team has been a bottom-seven unit defensively over their last 10 games and should allow Williams to put up double-digit points.

The Bulls forward will boost his steal totals with the number of Hornets turnovers and will grab some boards and dish out some assists thanks to a 226-point total. Williams is not the chalkiest of plays, so I like him in GPP or cash contests.