We are in an exclusive club. People stuck in leagues that play in Week 18. This is sadly somewhat common, as some leagues have two-week-long playoff matchups in weeks 15-18. I implore you to beg your commissioner to hold a vote to change this for next year. In the meantime, we have leagues to win. Week 18 is problematic because teams are liable to sit their starters. At this point we have a good idea of which playoff teams might do that – the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles are incentivised to rest players, though the Eagles will probably try to get Saquon Barkley the 101 rushing yards he needs for the single-season record. Throughout the week we will probably hear news of players on non-playoff teams choosing not to play through minor injuries that they would have earlier in the season. If your defense decision is still up in the air later in the week, I recommend following me on Bluesky. The first games are on Saturday, so I will post updated projections on Friday with the most up-to-date start/sit news.

Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 18)

There are a couple teams rostered in under 1/3 of leagues in my top 10, and there are likely to be more defenses that become attractive after news of players sitting out later in the week. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Bluesky.

Matchups

1. BAL vs CLE: The Ravens are motivated to play this week – they play the first game on Saturday, and if they lose that opens the door for the Steelers to take over the AFC North and the 3-seed with a win over Cincinnati. The Browns are anything but motivated. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been awful in two starts since Jameis Winston was Benched, to the tune of 4 turnovers, 6 sacks and 9 team points across both games. An enormous spread resulting in a rock-bottom 12.5-point projection for the Browns indicates how lopsided this game is in terms of both motivation and talent.
2. TB vs NO: The Buccaneers need to win this week to guarantee a playoff spot (or see the Falcons lose to the Panthers), and could move into the 3-seed if the Rams also lose to the Seahawks. The Saints are one of many teams waiting for the bell this week. They have been downright awful without Derek Carr. In five and a half starts, Spencer Rattler has managed just 2 touchdowns to 8 turnovers (5 interceptions, 3 fumbles) and taken 20 sacks. Alvin Kamara missed last week with a groin injury and said he wants to play again this season, but we’ll see if that actually happens. Without Kamara, there really isn’t any firepower left on the Saints’ offense.
3. GB vs CHI: The Packers have secured a playoff spot, but are competing with the Commanders for the 6-seed in the NFC. This is a significant prize, because the 7-seed has to play the Eagles in the first round, rather than the Rams or Buccaneers for the 6-seed. Caleb Williams has been taking sacks at an incredible rate this season – he only needs 2 more to achieve the third-highest sacks taken total of all time. With a very realistic 5 sacks he would overtake Randall Cunningham (1986) for the #2 spot, and a less realistic 10 sacks would topple David Carr’s 2002 record of 76 sacks taken.
4. DEN vs KC: The Broncos have everything to play for – with a win they make the playoffs, with a loss they don’t. The Chiefs, on the other hand, will likely rest their key starters. They have secured the 1-seed in the AFC and have sat starters in the same situation in the past, including last year. The Chiefs won’t be total pushovers with Carson Wentz, but they are a good matchup for an excellent Broncos defense that will hopefully see a better game from cornerback Riley Moss in his second game back from injury.
5. BUF @ NE: The Bills have secured the 2-seed in the AFC and will likely sit key starters this week, but that doesn’t mean they can’t handle the Patriots. Drake Maye is the best thing about this Patriots team, but that is an extremely low bar – they need to improve both their offensive line and receiving core this offseason. Last week the Patriots got held to just 7 points by the Chargers, and it’s hard to imagine them doing very much better this week.
6. ATL vs CAR: The Falcons have a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs as the 3-seed if they win and the Buccaneers lose to the Saints, and those games happen at the same time on Sunday morning. Atlanta’s pass rush has been excellent since their Week 12 bye – since then they’ve had at least 3 sacks in each game for a total of 21 in 5 games, after having reached the 3-sack mark only once prior to the bye. Bryce Young has also turned over a new leaf as regards sacks – he has 6, 3 and 5 sacks in his last three games, after having not taken more than 2 in a game since Week 1. The Falcons DST has served fantasy managers well in good matchups in recent weeks, and should do so again in Week 18.
7. TEN vs HOU: The Texans are locked into the 4-seed in the AFC, but will still be playing their starters according to coach DeMeco Ryans. Still, I would not be surprised to see C.J. Stroud play less than the full game. Stroud has been one of the more sackable quarterbacks in the league lately, and the team has struggled overall in the game and a half since they lost wide receiver Tank Dell to a serious knee injury. Davis Mills is the backup and is pretty average as backups go.
8. LAC @ LV: The Chargers have secured a wild card spot, but can move from the 6- to the 5-seed if they win and the Steelers lose to the Bengals. A win should be easy to come by for the Chargers – they have one of the best defenses in football and face a Raiders team that’s been pretty bad under Aidan O’Connell, even if he doesn’t take a lot of sacks. Don’t read too much into the Raiders’ current 2-game in streak against a couple of awful teams.
9. PHI vs NYG: The Eagles have secured the NFC East and the 2-seed, but will likely put in enough effort to get Saquon Barkley the single-season rushing record. They also just can’t sit everyone so I expect their top-tier defense will still be pretty good. Last week Drew Lock had one of the best games by any quarterback ever, with 5 total touchdowns, no sacks or turnovers and a perfect passer rating, likely costing the Giants a top-2 pick and a chance at one of the only two quarterbacks that belong in the first round of next year’s draft. This was a huge anomaly – in Lock’s three prior starts this season, he had just 2 touchdowns, 11 sacks and 6 turnovers. Lock might be making the case for a starting job next year, but the rest of the team is checked out and likely frustrated about the draft pick, so I expect the Giants to fall back to earth.
10. MIA @ NYJ: Last week, Aaron Rodgers was supposed to throw career touchdown number 500 to Davante Adams and ride into the sunset. Instead, the Jets were shut out until they benched Rodgers, who overtook Tom Brady for the most career sacks taken of all time. The Jets will play their starters this week including Rodgers, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulled after getting that 500th touchdown. Honestly it’s probably better for the Dolphins if Rodgers stay in – Tyrod Taylor threw two touchdowns in relief last week.