Huge caveat for Week 16 winners this week: The FGW (Fantasy Games Won) numbers only map out your chance of winning any matchup this week, regardless of whether you’re in the playoffs or not. The consolation bracket junkies can rejoice as this article can theoretically apply to them.
Week 16 and Week 17 are the weeks of the season where, for nearly all league formats, your chances of moving on to the next round can’t be calculated by your player performance in a vacuum. If you want to know your chances of moving on, you need to first calculate the chances you were already in the playoffs. Only then can you measure how much a player helped your team. A player who was terrible all year shouldn’t get let off the hook with one good playoff round.
I’ll be showing the “Fantasy Championships Won” numbers next week. For this week, when you see a player like Jonathan Taylor show up on the list, just know many of his managers aren’t even aware their first-round pick is balling out. As they’re out of the playoffs, it’s more likely they’re checking on why their last-minute gifts got labeled as “mis-shipped” in the shop app.
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Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
Fantasy Games Won (FGW) is a statistic that converts fantasy points into fantasy wins. Players get positive FGW points for outscoring average fantasy starters and negative points for below-average scores.
A player can score up to +0.5 FGW for increasing your chances of winning from 50% to 100% or down to -0.5 for dropping your chances from 50% to 0%. Percent started matters; 0% started throttles your FGW down to zero.
For a longer explanation, check out the 2023 FGW launch on my blog. The stat hasn’t changed since its inception.
Who Won Week 16?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 39.8 | 86% | 0.38 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | WR | 31.4 | 99% | 0.36 |
| 3 | De’Von Achane | RB | 28.0 | 96% | 0.29 |
| 4 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 30.5 | 84% | 0.28 |
| 5 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 27.0 | 98% | 0.28 |
| 6 | Brandon Aubrey | K | 21.0 | 96% | 0.26 |
| 7 | James Cook | RB | 26.1 | 91% | 0.24 |
| 8 | James Conner | RB | 24.6 | 96% | 0.23 |
| 9 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 23.4 | 100% | 0.22 |
| 10 | Bijan Robinson | RB | 23.3 | 98% | 0.21 |
| 11 | Green Bay D/ST | DEF | 17.0 | 100% | 0.20 |
| 12 | Jayden Daniels | QB | 39.4 | 55% | 0.19 |
| 13 | Atlanta D/ST | DEF | 25.0 | 55% | 0.19 |
| 14 | Jason Sanders | K | 21.0 | 70% | 0.19 |
| 15 | Jake Elliott | K | 19.0 | 77% | 0.18 |
- Before Week 16, Jonathan Taylor amassed a total of -0.01 FGW for the season. When you adjust for his 10th overall draft slot, it’s effectively -0.40, or 0.4 wins below what you’d expect. Since even a .500 record doesn’t make the fantasy playoffs in most leagues, a 7-8 baseline expectation through 15 weeks is indeed a hurdle. Another good week like this and we can start calling him ‘Consolation’ Taylor.
- Justin Jefferson is making a particular subset of his managers happy: Dynasty managers. He’s now taken a big lead over Josh Allen for the most FGW since the start of 2021. He must have been getting nervous with his old college teammate Ja’Marr Chase catching up to him there.
- Believe it or not, this was De’Von Achane‘s best fantasy week of his career because he was started in 96% of leagues. It’s only the second time in his career that he’s been started in over 95% of leagues and also scored 20+ points.
- I always gloss past kickers these days, but I should mention Brandon Aubrey has the ninth-most FGW of all players this season. He has provided more fantasy victories than Josh Allen. Abolish the kicker in fantasy football. Put that one on the DOGE cut list.
- Bijan Robinson has been quietly awesome this year. He never hit 0.30 FGW in a single week but is still performing like a first-round pick. He’s the RB4 at 1.23 FGW, trailing only Saquon Barkley and the Alabama duo of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Who Lost Week 16?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Amari Cooper | WR | 1.5 | 39% | -0.09 |
| 14 | Marvin Harrison | WR | 5.9 | 65% | -0.09 |
| 13 | San Francisco D/ST | DEF | -1.0 | 50% | -0.09 |
| 12 | Najee Harris | RB | 4.2 | 53% | -0.10 |
| 11 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 3.0 | 54% | -0.11 |
| 10 | Joe Mixon | RB | 7.6 | 86% | -0.11 |
| 9 | Rico Dowdle | RB | 6.6 | 77% | -0.11 |
| 8 | Trey McBride | TE | 3.5 | 94% | -0.11 |
| 7 | Jordan Love | QB | 12.5 | 61% | -0.11 |
| 6 | Khalil Shakir | WR | 3.2 | 62% | -0.12 |
| 5 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 3.0 | 58% | -0.13 |
| 4 | Brian Robinson | RB | 1.1 | 51% | -0.13 |
| 3 | Cooper Kupp | WR | 3.9 | 85% | -0.15 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | QB | 12.2 | 100% | -0.19 |
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 4.5 | 95% | -0.31 |
- I wonder if a three-point outing is going to hurt Jerry Jeudy‘s Madden rating.
- That was a bad week for Jordan Love… unless you were matched up with Jalen Hurts, then it was a great week. No, I’m not just passively aggressively writing a message to my opponent in a league. If you are reading this and you manage “Age of Kadarius” in a CBS league, I repeat, I am not talking about you.
- I’m chalking up the disappointing return of Isiah Pacheco to the fact he’s from New Jersey and his friends back home have been texting him drone pics all week. It’s distracting.
- Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are going to have interesting math on the “Did they help your team win playoff games?” calculation. Hurts, especially — that’s a 19% chance of winning for Hurts managers in Week 16.
Week 16 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 21.5 | 0% | 0.21 |
| 2 | Bryce Young | QB | 29.1 | 1% | 0.17 |
| 3 | Jayden Daniels | QB | 39.4 | 55% | 0.16 |
| 4 | Jameson Williams | WR | 23.5 | 36% | 0.16 |
| 5 | Tank Dell | WR | 18.8 | 0% | 0.15 |
| 6 | Keenan Allen | WR | 24.6 | 43% | 0.15 |
| 7 | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 18.0 | 0% | 0.13 |
| 8 | Tyjae Spears | RB | 20.1 | 15% | 0.13 |
| 9 | Gus Edwards | RB | 19.6 | 11% | 0.13 |
| 10 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 14.6 | 3% | 0.12 |
| 11 | Deebo Samuel | WR | 21.6 | 42% | 0.12 |
| 12 | Jerome Ford | RB | 21.6 | 43% | 0.10 |
| 13 | Brian Thomas | WR | 23.7 | 62% | 0.09 |
| 14 | Xavier Worthy | WR | 17.0 | 24% | 0.09 |
| 15 | Jared Goff | QB | 28.3 | 49% | 0.08 |
- Olamide Zaccheaus is back. Despite scoring 196.2 fantasy points since the start of 2021, he has rarely been started in fantasy lineups. He has had a percentage started above 0% only once, way back in Week 5 of 2021. He has -0.1 FGW for the decade.
- I would hate to be one of the 45% of Jayden Daniels managers who benched him. Hoping it was just coincidentally the 45% of Daniels managers that missed the playoffs. (Nervous grin emoji.)
- Two double-digit scoring fantasy games in a season matches the career high for Chig Okonkwo. I was hoping he had two double-digit games in 2023 because then I could have called it the bi-annual double-digit Okonkwo game. Would have been a clever quip.
- Jared Goff is the king of the junior varsity slate. Since the start of 2021, he’s amassed 2.31 bFGW. The next most for any player is Taysom Hill at 2.03, which makes sense because that’s Taysom Hill. The next most for a quarterback is Kirk Cousing at 1.78. Goff has been prominent on fantasy benches for so long that our junior varsity cheerleaders developed a cheer called the Goff-L-Copter.
‘Twas the Week Before Championships, and Amongst All the Teams…
Managers were basking in championship dreams. Defenses facing Drew Lock were started with care and with the hope some Indy pick-sixes were there. Mamma in her kerchief, and I in my jacket, stacked Patrick and Travis, as if just by habit.
For those that have Barkley, Jackson, or Chase, most certainly their teams have been winning the race. But if you gave C-Mac or Tyreek a bite, Merry Christmas to all, and to your team a good night.
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