Welcome to the fantasy football semi-finals. Attention switches to the NFL Draft, the college football bowl games and what you’re eating on Christmas Day this time of year. However, for those of you still on the quest for hardware, these next two weeks will be a dogfight for survival and winning at all costs.
Every edge shrinks significantly in the playoffs. Therefore, any little edge you can find could be the difference between being a finalist, potential champion or playing for third place.
Therefore, without further ado, let me break down the top fantasy football WR/CB matchups for Week 16.
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Fantasy Football WR/CB Matchups: Week 16
Advantageous Wide Receiver Matchups
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA) vs. Fabian Moreau (CB – MIN)
DK Metcalf comes into Week 16 on the back of terrible form. In the past eight weeks, Metcalf has only put up more than 10 fantasy points once. He also missed two weeks with injury and had a bye in that time as well. However, in the past four weeks, Metcalf has posted scores of 7.9, 8.6, 6.9 and 4.3 half-PPR points. For a player going in the second or third round in drafts this summer, he is currently the WR35 and holding back fantasy teams.
However, he arguably has the best WR/CB matchup of any wide receiver this week. Metcalf is up against Fabian Moreau, who, according to Fantasy Points Data, is allowing 0.40 fantasy points per route run. This is the second-most allowed of any corner currently active in the NFL. He is also being targeted on almost 18% of routes run against him, close to double the elite corners.
Moreau is a weak spot on this Minnesota Vikings defense. Vegas Insider currently has the Minnesota Vikings as 3-point favorites heading into the weekend. That means the Seahawks will need to make big plays from behind if they want to win this one and take a step further to an NFC West division title.
However, there is some risk to consider with fantasy start sit decisions if selecting Metcalf this week. Not only is Metcalf’s current form a concern but Geno Smith got injured last week and is questionable for Sunday. Fantasy managers should start Metcalf if projected to be significantly behind in their matchups or if they are in a deep league. He has the potential to be a top-12 wide receiver this week. However, it is more of a hope than an expectation at this point.
Jalen McMillan (WR – TB) vs. Amani Oruwariye (CB – DAL)
Jalen McMillan has finally clicked with Baker Mayfield in the last two weeks. He has three touchdowns and has become the true No. 2 WR receiver in this offense, at the expense of tight end Cade Otton.
This week, McMillan has been gifted a dream matchup versus Amani Oruwariye of the Dallas Cowboys. According to Fantasy Points, Oruwariye allows o.38 fantasy points per route run. This is the fourth-most of any cornerback in the NFL. He is also being targeted on a whopping 22.8% of routes run against him, which is the second-most of all corners in the NFL.
The trust is there for McMillan now. His touchdown last week against the Los Angeles Chargers was a carbon copy of the play he dropped in Week 1. There are plays for McMillan in this playbook and they have been there all season. However, it is only now we are starting to see them as he is finally earning the trust of Mayfield and Liam Coen. Fantasy managers should expect McMillan to be a WR3 this week. Although, he will carry WR2 upside and should be a nice supplemental piece off the waiver wire this week.
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) vs. Marcus Jones (CB – NE)
Khalil Shakir comes into Week 16 as the WR26 and has drastically outperformed his average draft position (ADP) in 2024. However, availability has been his greatest strength. He currently ranks as the WR35 with 10.6 half-PPR points per game (PPG).
Nevertheless, he still holds tremendous fantasy value for a Buffalo Bills team trying to chase down the Kansas City Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Shakir is in a good spot to get a decent number of targets against New England this week. According to Vegas Insider, the Bills are 14-point favorites against the Patriots, so they should be able to maintain drives and control a matchup they are heavy favorites.
Another reason to expect a reasonable performance from Shakir this week is his matchup against Marcus Jones. According to Fantasy Points, Jones is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per route run. He is also seeing a sizeable 19% of targets per route run against him. That 19% target rate is tied for the fifth-most in the NFL by a cornerback.
Shakir is a decent volume-based WR3 option this week. He is likely to bring a stable floor option for fantasy managers. However, without finding the end zone, he will only remain a floor play.
Other Notable Advantageous Matchups
- Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) vs. Dee Alford (CB – ATL)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) vs. Decamerion Richardson (CB – LV)
- Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) vs. Kristian Fulton (CB – LAC)
- Davante Adams (WR – NYJ) vs. Quentin Lake (CB – LAR)
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR – KC) vs. Kamari Lassiter (CB – HOU)
Challenging Wide Receiver Matchups
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC) vs. Pat Surtain (CB – DEN)
Quentin Johnston burst back into fantasy relevance with a strong showing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15. However, this week he should be a fade for all fantasy managers looking to secure a playoff win.
Johnston squares up against Pat Surtain in a matchup no one wants when looking at trying to get a significant upside. Surtain, according to Fantasy Points, is allowing just 0.12 fantasy points per route run. This is the third-fewest allowed by any active cornerback in the NFL. He also is only defending targets on 9.5% of routes run against him — fourth-lowest mark of any starting cornerback.
While fantasy managers will want to chase upside this week, this is one matchup to avoid. Johnston should be sat in all formats.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB) vs. Ugo Amadi (CB – NO)
Jayden Reed is another player, like DK Metcalf, whose form is of question of late. Reed is currently the WR28 on the season. However, he is being propped up by a strong fantasy start. Since Week 7, Reed has only posted 10+ fantasy points twice and has yet to hit a 20-point game in that span. In that span, Reed is the WR46.
When you factor in his current form with his matchup this week, it is hard to justify a spot in the lineup for Reed. Reed is up against Ugo Amadi, who has taken over the shutdown corner role since Marshon Lattimore left in a trade to Washington. Amadi has been exceptional, allowing fewer than 5% of targets per route run against him, which leads all cornerbacks. While his sample size is much smaller than Surtain’s, he has delivered equally as well for the Saints.
Fantasy managers should really try and avoid Reed at all costs this week.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) vs. Joshua Williams (CB – KC)
That famous fantasy saying ‘start your studs’ has never meant more than looking at Nico Collins this week in a tough matchup against Kansas City’s Joshua Williams.
Collins has been a machine for fantasy managers and is currently the WR2 in PPG this season. Therefore, fantasy managers must start him no matter what.
However, it is worth highlighting this tough matchup against Williams. According to Fantasy Points, Williams is only allowing 0.14 fantasy points per route run. In addition, he is only defending targets on 12.6% of routes run against him. Therefore, Collins is expected to have his upside clipped slightly this week.
However, if anyone can overcome a tough matchup this week, it’s Collins. Fantasy managers should start Collins no matter what. Just be wary of the matchup.
Other Notable Challenging Matchups
- Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) vs. Quinyon Mitchell (CB – PHI)
- Tank Dell (WR – HOU) vs. Nazeeh Johnson (CB – KC)
- Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) vs. Isaiah Oliver (CB – NYJ)
- Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) vs. Jalen Ramsey (CB – MIA)
- Drake London (WR – ATL) vs. Adoree’ Jackson (CB – NYG)
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @5yardrush.