Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice (2024)

Welcome to Week 16, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit Grades

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

The most substantial sample we have for Penix Jr. in the NFL has been his 16 preseason dropbacks, where he had a 6.3% big-time throw rate, an 8.6 aDOT, and a 56.3% adjusted completion rate. Even that is too small to really pull anything substantial from. During his final collegiate season, among 144 qualifying FBS passers, Penix Jr. was impressive, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, tenth in big-time throw rate, 27th in aDOT, and 39th in adjusted completion rate. The strong-armed rookie isn’t afraid of chucking it deep, as he led all FBS quarterbacks last year in deep passing attempts. This is a great matchup to ease Penix Jr. into the starting role. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE. Across their last five games, this secondary has continually been gutted by deep passing, allowing the third-highest passer rating and CPOE to deep passing.

Drake Maye (QB)

Maye has been a QB1 in each of his last two starts (QB10, QB11). Since Week 9, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 19th in passing yards per game, 11th in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Maye could make it three consecutive QB1 weeks as he faces off with a Bills pass defense that isn’t scary at all anymore. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, the third-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.

Caleb Williams (QB)

The last time Williams faced the Lions, he finished as the QB5 for the week with 256 passing yards, three passing scores, and 39 rushing yards. The Lions’ defense has been gutted since that game by injuries. We’ll see if Williams can bounce back after back-to-back horrible outings. Since Week 11, Williams has been the QB14 in fantasy points per game while ranking 26th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks, 30 qualifying quarterbacks). Since Week 13, Detroit has ranked 11th-best in pressure rate, but they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the most yards per attempt, and the fourth-highest passer rating.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray is the QB14 in fantasy points per game, and he only has two QB1 finishes across his last six games. Murray’s biggest issue is that he has seen a ton of two-high coverage while his rushing floor has also bottomed out. Since Week 6, Arizona has faced the tenth-most two high coverage in the NFL (50%). Since Week 8, Murray has surpassed 22 rushing yards in a game only once. I don’t know if the rushing will return this week, but Murray finally gets a single high matchup that he can take advantage of. Since Week 12, Carolina has featured single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.7%). Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, against single high, Murray ranks 15th in passer rating, seventh in hero throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest CPOE, and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback.

Bryce Young (QB)

Since Week 12, Young has been the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 27th in passer rating, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Young should post mid-range QB2 numbers again this week against an Arizona secondary that has regressed in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the 11th-highest passer rating, the seventh-highest CPOE, and ranked 15th in yards per attempt.

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Week 16 Wide Receiver Start/Sit Grades

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison Jr. has been on a cold streak with all of the recent two high matchups. Since Week 8, he has had three weeks as a WR21 or higher in weekly scoring (WR4, WR14, WR21). The bad thing is in his four other games, he hasn’t finished higher than WR41 in any week. Harrison Jr. has seen solid red zone usage recently with four targets inside the 20-yard line in his last five games. Since Week 12, Carolina has featured single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.7%). Against single high, Harrison Jr. has had a 22.9% target share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 28.2% first-read share. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Thielen’s hot streak came to an end last week despite still leading the team with a 25% target share and 38.9% first-read share. Last week, Thielen played a little more out wide (28.1%) while he still was mostly in the slot (71.9%). Since Week 13, he has had a 25.9% target share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Thielen has three red zone targets in this last three games played. Thielen is a solid flex play again in Week 16. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

In the five games Pittman has played with Josh Downs in the lineup and Anthony Richardson under center, he has handled a 22.2% target share and 26.4% first-read share while producing 1.60 YPRR and 43.8 receiving yards per game. In those five games, he has surpassed 60 receiving yards twice and had two red zone targets (zero touchdowns). Pittman could turn in a nice showing this week if his health complies as the Tennessee secondary has been giving to outside receivers in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

In Rudolph’s three stars this season, Ridley has seen two red zone targets while finishing as the WR47, WR5, and WR30 in weekly scoring. In that sample, he had a 28.8% target share, 86 receiving yards per game (2.41 YPRR), and a 37.2% first-read share. Ridley volume-based fantasy option weekly. By now, we know the quarterback play in Tennessee isn’t great, no matter who is under center. Lower your expectations for Ridley some this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Davante Adams (WR)

Since Week 7, Adams has been the WR7 in fantasy points per game. He has 11 red zone targets across his last eight games as a Jet. Since Week 10, the Rams have utilized two high with 52.3% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 7, against two high, Adams has had a 30.7% target share, 2.33 YPRR, and a 38.5% first-read share. He should lead the way again this week for New York through the air. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

Wilson could get the squeaky wheel treatment this week, but it easily could be another massive Davante Adams game incoming. Since Week 7, Wilson has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing seven red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Rams have utilized two high with 52.3% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 7, against two high, Wilson has taken a backseat to Adams with a 19.7% target share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. The matchup is still conducive to both players posting nice stat lines in Week 16. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is the WR14 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in receiving yards and second in total touchdowns. I really wanted to put him as a must-start this week, but I know people would ask (queue up the voice of public opinion), “But what about Week 11 when he had only one catch and ten receiving yards?” I don’t think Daniels was anywhere close to healthy in that game, which affected everything Washington did in that game. McLaurin has five 100-yard receiving days and three games with multiple touchdowns. I think he has earned the benefit of the doubt by now. McLaurin has a 21.7% target share, 2.42 YPRR (69.2 receiving yards per game), and a 27.1% first-read share. He ranks 11th in deep targets among wideouts and has five red zone targets in his last six games. The matchup is rough. There’s no doubt about that, but it’s tough to sit a player like McLaurin. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Week 16 Running Back Start/Sit Grades

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and seventh in red zone touches. Since Week 12, he has averaged 17 touches and 86.8 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Jones ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. This is a sneaky good matchup for Jones. Since Week 10, Seattle has ranked 15th in missed tackle rate, allowing the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt, the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the tenth-highest success rate to gap runs. Jones has a 42.8% gap run rate this season, but I won’t be shocked if Minnesota increases his gap run rate this week. Jones has five games this season where at least 50% of his rushing attempts have come via gap runs.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

It’s a one-game sample, but last week, Etienne took over again as the team’s workhorse, handling a 73% snap share with 18 touches and 85 total yards. Etienne also had a 75% snap share once the team was in the red zone. Over the last two weeks, Etienne has still looked like a hampered version of himself, with zero explosive runs and only a 6% missed tackle rate. Since Week 10, the Raiders have ranked 15th in explosive run rate and 18th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Etienne is a volume-fueled RB2/3 this week.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Last week, Bigsby saw his role decline, with only a 26% snap share overall and a 25% snap share in the red zone. He finished with 11 carries and 42 rushing yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Bigsby is still crushing it in per-touch efficiency, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackle rate, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby is a worrisome flex play this week after seeing his role cut last week, but if the Jags stomp the Raiders this week, he could get some more work late salting the clock away. Since Week 10, the Raiders have ranked 15th in explosive run rate and 18th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Rachaad White (RB)

Last week, White played 51% of the snaps, handling 17 touches and producing 81 total yards (one score) as the RB19 for the week. Since Week 8, White has averaged 13.5 touches and 69.5 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. During this stretch, among 36 qualifying backs, White has ranked 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. White should return RB2 value this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-highest success rate to gap runs (since Week 10, White 51.5% gap).

Bucky Irving (RB)

Well, I was wrong about Irving’s workload last week. I thought he would be more limited than he was. Irving played 44% of the snaps and rattled off 17 touches and 113 total yards. It was his second 100-yard rushing day of the season. Since Week 8, Irving has averaged 15.7 touches and 96.2 total yards as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. During those seven games, among 36 qualifying backs, Irving has ranked 12th in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Irving is in the RB1/2 mix again in Week 16. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-highest success rate to gap runs (since Week 10, Irving 58.8% gap).

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Since Week 12, Dowdle has been the RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22.8 touches and 127.8 total yards. Since Week 12, among 41 qualifying backs, he has ranked 13th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle runs into a buzzsaw this week, which might break his hot streak of three consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest stuff rate.

Kendre Miller (RB)

With Alvin Kamara out, Miller should be the team’s workhorse this week. Last week, in the fourth quarter, with Kamara out, Miller played 88% of the snaps while seeing all the team’s red zone snaps. Jamaal Williams should work in some, but overall, this should be Miller’s backfield this week. Miller only has 28 carries this season, but he has been impressive with his touches, logging a 7.1% explosive run rate, a 36% missed tackle rate, and 2.96 yards after contact per attempt. Mille faces what has been an improved Packer’s run defense. He should see enough volume this week to put him in the RB2 conversation, but with the bad matchup and concerning quarterback play and offensive environment, Miller could be an RB3 this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Week 16 Tight End Start/Sit Grades

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Pitts has become an afterthought in this offense. He has played less than 42% of the snaps in two of his last three games. Since Week 9, he has seen five red zone targets and hasn’t scored while sadly only surpassing 30 receiving yards in a game once. The Giants haven’t been tested by tight ends much this season, facing the fewest targets per game to the position while ranking 15th in yards per reception to the position. The coverage shell matchup is in Pitts’ favor this week. Since Week 7, New York has had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against single-high, Pitts has had only a 12.4% target share and 9.9% first-read share, but he has posted 2.30 YPRR. I’m not telling people to all of a sudden have faith in Pitts, but if he flashed a pulse this week and posted fringe TE1 numbers, I wouldn’t be shocked.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Last week, Kincaid returned to the lineup and had a 54.1% route share with a 20.6% target share (seven targets), 2.65 YPRR (53 receiving yards), and a 25% first-read share. Kincaid hasn’t finished as a TE1 since Week 6. He has five red zone targets across his last five games played. Kincaid is a fringe TE1 this week, facing a pass defense that has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Since Week 9, Henry has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 finishes. Across his last six games, he has eight red zone targets. Since Week 9, Henry has had a 19.9% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 22.5% first-read share. Last week, Henry’s route share dipped to 60.7%, while Austin Hooper had a 57.1% route share. This is concerning, as well as the matchup this week. If you have other streaming options available and can sit Henry, I’d do it. Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Grant Calcaterra (TE)

In Calcaterra’s five starts, he has had an 11.6% target share, 1.10 YPRR (26.2 receiving yards per game), and an 8.8% first-read share. During those five games, he has only one end-zone target and two red-zone targets. Calcaterra is best left on the bench this week. Washington has allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends, but they have also given up the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game. Calcaterra is a touchdown-or-bust option this week that doesn’t have a huge red zone role in the offense.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Since Week 9, Hockenson has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game while logging three TE1 weeks (TE5, TE5, TE10). He has five red zone targets in his last three games and zero scores. Hockenson is due to get into the end zone. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the fifth-highest two high rate in the NFL (58.9%). Since Week 9, against two high, Hockenson has had a 14.3% target share, 1.27 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share. Hockenson remains a TE1. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most yards per reception to tight ends.

Week 16 Defense / Special Teams Start/Sit Grades

Week 16 Kicker Start/Sit Grades