Well, friends, if you’re reading this, chances are you’ve cleared the first hurdle of the fantasy playoffs by winning your first-round game.
Or, better yet, you were enjoying a stress-free bye last week, kicking up your feet on the ottoman while your rivals sweated it out.
Either way, you’re now one step away from the championship game. If you need reinforcements for the final two weeks of the fantasy season, we have some recommendations.
We’ll get to that in just a moment.
All season long, we’ve been giving you not only pickup recommendations but also drop recommendations. With only two weeks left, you don’t need any more drop advice. The time for churning the bottom of your roster is over. We have reached the endgame.
This is a big week. Let’s get down to brass tacks.
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice: Week 16
Week 16 Waiver Grade: B+
(Rostership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues, Recommended FAAB bids are based on a $100 budget.)
RUNNING BACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Sincere McCormick (LV): 43% rostered
- Next Opponents: JAX, @NO, LAC
- True value: $15
- Desperate Need: $25
- Budget-minded: $8
Analysis: The Raiders aren’t going anywhere again this season. It was the same story in 2023, when unheralded rookie Zamir White was given an ungodly share of the running back snaps under then-interim head coach Antonio Pierce. White was fabulous in the fantasy football playoffs and Pierce was retained. Pierce has seen what Sincere McCormick can do with his opportunities. The UTSA grad has “earned the starting role,” an endorsement that rings like music to our ears with games against the Jaguars and Saints left on the schedule. McCormick was more affordable weeks ago when I first hypothesized this sequence of events, but he’s every bit the potential league winner this week as then.
Jerome Ford (CLE): 42% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CIN, MIA, @BAL
- True value: $13
- Desperate Need: $20
- Budget-minded: $8
Analysis: While Nick Chubb‘s return to action this year was a nice story, he hardly returned to vintage form. When Chubb broke his foot on Sunday, we saw just how explosive Ford is. Ford had 102 scrimmage yards on only nine touches and pulled away from the Chiefs’ defense for a 62-yard touchdown run. Ford has been a mainstay in this column as a versatile, underrated playmaker. Now that Chubb is done for the year, we will likely see a return to RB2 territory for Ford.
Kendre Miller (NO): 11% rostered
- Next Opponents: @GB, LV, @TB
- True value: $9
- Desperate Need: $15
- Budget-minded: $5
Analysis: The theory was that New Orleans would be overly cautious with Alvin Kamara in a lost season and give talented sophomore Kendre Miller more run down the stretch. That didn’t happen. Kamara was the alpha dog again in Week 15, but he succumbed to a groin injury in the third quarter. Miller carried the ball nine times thereafter and averaged more than five yards. With a potential Kamara shutdown imminent, it will be interesting to see if Miller finds more of a role as a pass catcher going forward. It isn’t his strong suit, but neither the Packers nor Raiders have been world beaters against the run.
Tyjae Spears (TEN): 44% rostered
- Next Opponents: @IND, @JAX, HOU
- True value: $6
- Desperate Need: $11
- Budget-minded: $3
Analysis: It was brave of Tony Pollard to gut out his nagging ankle injury and play against the Bengals. He was obviously on a pitch count and hobbled around a great deal until Cincinnati built an insurmountable lead. From there, it was the Tyjae Spears show. Spears has dealt with his own injuries this season, but he looked incredibly explosive en route to 27.2 fantasy points in Week 15. It would serve the Titans well to continue to manage Pollard’s workload and let Spears flourish as the healthier player against the terrible Colts and Jaguars run defenses. If that happens, Spears has low-end RB1 upside. If not, he’s still a flex play I can see plugging into a championship lineup.
Kimani Vidal (LAC): 12% rostered
- Next Opponents: DEN, @NE, @LV
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: All offseason, the best-ball bros and dynasty nerds were gnashing at the bit to roster Vidal. The rookie from Troy had a massive learning curve and was a healthy scratch to begin the campaign. Through attrition, Vidal has suited up behind Gus Edwards of late. His first career touch was a beautiful touchdown catch on a wheel route, but it has been crickets ever since. His five touches in Week 15 reminded us that the trusty Gus Bus is still chugging down the line. I still have a candle lit for Vidal to give Jim Harbaugh a reason to run him out there more often. He is a fun player with a skill set coveted by other “boring” offenses. Grab him just in case.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Written by Derek Brown
Jalen McMillan (TB): 8% rostered
- Next Opponents: @DAL, CAR, NO
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Well, I guess we need to be back in on McMillan after two standout performances. We’ve been waiting for the talented rookie to emerge since Chris Godwin was lost for the year, and it looks like he is doing it. Over the last two weeks, McMillan has had a 23.2% target share while averaging 4.5 receptions and 67 receiving yards. He has scored three times in the last two weeks. None of his final three matchups for the season should strike fear in anyone’s heart. Dallas and New Orleans have allowed the 10th-most and ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Romeo Doubs (GB): 38% rostered
- Next Opponents: NO, @MIN, CHI
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Doubs returned from the concussion protocol in Week 15 and made his presence known. He had an 18.5% target share with 40 receiving yards and two scores. He is poised to continue the scoring barrage over the next three weeks with nice matchups against the Saints, Vikings and Bears. Since Week 9, the Saints, Vikings and Bears have respectively allowed the fifth-most, 14th-most and seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Jalen Coker (CAR): 2% rostered
- Next Opponents: ARI, @TB, @ATL
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Coker returned to the lineup after missing three games with a quad injury and made his presence known. He finished with a 21.4% target share, a team-leading 110 receiving yards and a touchdown Sunday against the Cowboys. Yes, most of that production came on an immaculate 83-yard score, but Coker returned to a full-time role. He split the slot snaps with Adam Thielen as they rotated. Xavier Legette also left the game early (groin). If he’s unable to go next week, it’ll be Coker and Thielen duking it out for the team lead in targets. Arizona’s secondary has been improved in recent weeks, but Coker should torch the Bucs and Falcons to close the NFL regular season. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have allowed the fifth-most and most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Rashod Bateman (BAL): 25% rostered
- Next Opponents: PIT, @HOU, CLE
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Bateman had another wonderful spike week against the Giants. He had a 20% target share while scoring two touchdowns and finishing with a team-leading 80 receiving yards. Bateman could close the NFL regular season with a flurry of production courtesy of awesome matchups in two of the next three games. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh and Cleveland have respectively allowed the fourth-most and 10th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Cedric Tillman (CLE): 32% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CIN, MIA, @BAL
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Hopefully, Tillman will return next week from the concussion protocol after returning to practice last week. In Weeks 7-11, Tillman had a 21% target share, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 25.5% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, he had five red zone targets and three WR1 weekly finishes (WR10, WR3, WR12). I don’t know who will be starting at quarterback for Cleveland in Week 16, but Tillman at least has a glorious matchup. Since Week 9, Cincy has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Keon Coleman (BUF): 41% rostered
- Next Opponents: NE, NYJ, @NE
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Coleman returned from a wrist injury in Week 15 and led the Bills’ wide receivers in snaps. It didn’t translate to a ton of usage, with Coleman only seeing two targets, but he did make his one reception count with a massive 64-yard chunk play. Coleman could build upon his Week 15 return with juicy matchups against the Pats in two of his next three games. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL): 21% rostered
- Next Opponents: NYG, @WSH, CAR
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: McCloud enters his matchup against the Raiders on fire over the last two weeks. In his last two games, he has averaged 14.7 PPR points, six receptions and 96.5 receiving yards. McCloud could continue the hot streak to close the season with nice matchups against the Giants and Commanders. These two secondaries have allowed the 15th-most and fourth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
QUARTERBACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ): 35% rostered
- Next Opponents: LAR, @BUF, MIA
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Aaron Rodgers loves attention. He is fueled by it. He promised an immediate retirement if the Jets lost to the Jaguars, but he and Davante Adams spared themselves the looming embarrassment with a massive second-half performance. Rodgers could very well stick around as a streaming option in our semifinal matchups, but that’s where we run out of tracks. The Rams are considerably better on defense than Jacksonville, so nobody would cast blame for cashing in the chips and heading home.
Russell Wilson (PIT): 49% rostered
- Next Opponents: @BAL, KC, CIN
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Steelers got crushed in Philly on Sunday, but that might work in our favor for fantasy purposes. The Eagles have a stellar defense, especially against opposing quarterbacks. The same cannot be said for the Ravens and Chiefs this season, so Russell Wilson is primed for a nice little streaming stretch through the fantasy championship on the cheap. Many will look at his poor performance in Week 15 as a reason to leave him on the wire, but it’s an opportunity to spend less FAAB on a good quarterback with a safe floor and QB1 upside. This is especially true if George Pickens is able to return to play from his hamstring injury.
Cooper Rush (DAL): 8% rostered
- Next Opponents: TB, @PHI, WAS
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Save for a dud against the Giants on Thanksgiving, Rush has been more than adequate as a quarterback streamer during this rainbow-sprinkled cupcake stretch of Dallas’ schedule. Week 16 is another one with promise, as the Cowboys host the exploitable Buccaneers. Rush has eyes for CeeDee Lamb, which always bodes well for Mike McCarthy’s offense. Rico Dowdle‘s rushing performance has also afforded Rush opportunities to use play-action to take chunks out of the defense. Like Rodgers, his championship week matchup is nightmarish. We only need him for this week to reach that last game.
Mac Jones (JAX): 3% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LV, TEN, @IND
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Jones has a singular path to fantasy relevance: Throw it to Brian Thomas Jr. all the time. Jacksonville’s weaponry has gradually fallen to injuries throughout this disappointing season. BTJ is a superstar in the making and elevates the former Alabama quarterback to startable territory with a favorable remaining schedule. Jones needed 46 attempts Sunday against the Jets and still failed to surpass 300 passing yards. Both of his touchdowns were to the rookie from LSU, and Jones threw two interceptions. Make sure your expectations are realistic if you roll the dice on Mac.
TIGHT ENDS
Written by Derek Brown
Brenton Strange (JAX): 2% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LV, TEN, @IND
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Strange was a PPR machine in Week 15. He soaked up a 26% target share, turning it into 11 receptions and 73 receiving yards. While I don’t think Strange and Mac Jones should be expected to do this weekly, Strange could keep up this torrid pace for at least one more game. The Raiders have allowed the third-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN): 5% rostered
- Next Opponents: @IND, @JAX, HOU
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Okonkwo should close the season strong with his upcoming matchups. He already started the end-of-the-season push in Week 15 with a 26.3% target share, eight receptions and 59 receiving yards. He should be knocking on the door of fringe TE1 status over the next two weeks. Indy and Jacksonville have respectively allowed the fifth-most and seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Stone Smartt (LAC): 6% rostered
- Next Opponents: DEN, @NE, @LV
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Smartt had a solid Week 15 with a 17.6% target share, five receptions, and 50 scoreless receiving yards. If he had spiked a touchdown, we would all be patting ourselves on the back for streaming him against the Bucs. It’s tough in the tight-end streaming streets in Week 16, which also helps Smartt stand out. In this consolidated passing attack, he should post a similar market share in Week 16, and if he gets into the end zone, he’ll be flirting with TE1 production.
Noah Gray (KC): 19% rostered
- Next Opponents: HOU, @PIT, @DEN
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Gray continues to get it done. Against the Browns, he had a 13.1% target share, turning his two receptions into 21 receiving yards and a score. Gray has at least 58 receiving yards or two scores in three of his last four games. He has scored five touchdowns in his last five games. If Gray continues his hot streak in Week 16, you’ll be glad that you streamed him.
DEFENSES
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Green Bay Packers: 49% rostered
- Next Opponents: NO, @MIN, CHI
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: It’s a good week to stream a defense, with an array of palatable options. The Packers are rostered in 49% of Yahoo leagues, so they might not be available in yours. But if they are, it’s worth spending a little extra on them, assuming you have some FAAB money left to spend. Green Bay ranks inside the top 10 in defensive fantasy scoring and gets a gorgeous home matchup against the Saints, who figure to be starting fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler at quarterback. In three starts this season plus Sunday’s relief appearance in place of the ineffective Jake Haener, Rattler has fumbled three times, thrown two interceptions, and taken 14 sacks. The Saints could be without ace RB Alvin Kamara, who sustained a groin injury on Sunday. Plus, a team from the Deep South that plays its home games indoors might not be entirely comfortable playing a Monday-night game in Green Bay in late December. The Packers’ defense could feast.
Indianapolis Colts: 21% rostered
- Next Opponents: TEN, @NYG, JAX
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: The Packers are probably a better play for Week 16, but the Colts are the co-headliners among the streamable defenses this week because of their mouth-watering schedule the next two weeks. Indy draws a home matchup against divisional rival Tennessee this week. It’s not clear whether we’ll see Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at quarterback for the Titans. Levis was benched on Sunday after throwing three interceptions in just 12 pass attempts. Rudolph acquitted himself well Sunday in his relief appearance against the Bengals, but a Rudolph-led Titans offense would still have to be considered a favorable matchup for the Indy D. In Week 17, the Colts get the Giants, who started Tommy DeVito at quarterback on Sunday and had to turn to journeyman Tim Boyle after DeVito sustained a concussion. The Colts went into Week 15 tied for 17th in defensive fantasy scoring.
Atlanta Falcons: 36% rostered
- Next Opponents: NYG, @WSH, CAR
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Giants are a great offense to target with a streaming defense, and the Falcons win the matchup lottery by drawing NYG this week. It’s not clear whether we’ll see Tommy DeVito, Tim Boyle, or perhaps Drew Lock at quarterback for the Giants. Lock missed Week 15 with a heel injury. DeVito started Sunday against the Ravens and left with a concussion, leaving Boyle to mop up in a 35-14 loss. Lock threw an NFL-high 15 interceptions when he started 13 games for the Broncos in 2020. DeVito has been a sack magnet, with 43 sacks in 12 career games. Boyle has a career interception rate of 5.6%. This is a great spot for Atlanta, whose pass rush has been less anemic of late. Going into Monday night’s game against the Raiders, the Falcons had recorded nine sacks in their previous two games.
Arizona Cardinals: 39% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CAR, @LAR, SF
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Arizona’s defense has been surprisingly fantasy-viable this season. After a solid performance against the Patriots in Week 15, the Cardinals get a Week 16 matchup against a Panthers offense that struggled against an injury-depleted Cowboys defense in Week 15. Panthers QB Bryce Young threw two interceptions, lost two fumbles, and was sacked six times on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals: 39% rostered
- Next Opponents: CLE, DEN, @PIT
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Bengals rank near the bottom of the league in both defensive DVOA and defensive fantasy scoring, but Cincinnati is a viable fantasy option in the right matchup. We mentioned the Bengals in this space a week ago based on an attractive Week 15 matchup against the Titans, and Cincinnati wound up forcing six turnovers against Tennessee. Now, the Bengals get a Week 16 date with the Browns, whose QB situation is up in the air. Jameis Winston was benched Sunday after failing to get the Cleveland offense moving in a loss to Kansas City, giving way to the inexperienced Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns have given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.
KICKERS
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Chase McLaughlin (TB): 49% rostered
- Next Opponents: @DAL, CAR, NO
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: McLaughlin was dialed in Sunday in the Buccaneers’ 40-17 demolition of the Chargers, going 4-for-4 on field goals and 4-for-4 on extra points. He’s been money all season for the Bucs, converting 92.6% of his FG attempts and 95.5% of his PATs. McLaughlin is averaging 9.4 fantasy points a game and gets terrific matchups the next two weeks. Going into Week 15, the Cowboys had allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to kickers, and the Panthers had allowed the second-most.
Will Lutz (DEN): 18% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LAC, @CIN, KC
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Lutz has been a prolific and reliable fantasy kicker this season. He entered Week 15 tied for fifth in fantasy points per game among kickers with 9.7, then made his only field goal attempt and all four of his PATs in Denver’s 31-13 win over Indianapolis. For the season, Lutz is 27-of-30 on field goals and a perfect 35-of-35 on extra points. He’ll have excellent kicking conditions in Los Angeles this week, where he’ll face a Chargers squad that just yielded four field goals and four extra points to the Buccaneers’ Chase McLaughlin.
Cade York (CIN): 5% rostered
- Next Opponents: CLE, DEN @PIT
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Filling in for the injured Evan McPherson, York is 3-of-3 on field goals and 7-of-8 on extra points in two games with the Bengals. York’s career success rate on field goals is a mediocre 73% on 37 attempts. But the appeal is that York is attached to the high-powered and red-hot Cincinnati offense, which has averaged 34 points over its last six games.
Brandon McManus (GB): 20% rostered
- Next Opponents: NO, @MIN, CHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: McManus is 11-of-12 on field goals and a perfect 20-of-20 on extra points since joining the Packers. He’s tied to a potent offense, and McManus gets an attractive Week 16 matchup against the Saints, who’ll be heavy underdogs in that game. There are two potential pitfalls with McManus, however. First, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is extremely aggressive on fourth downs, often passing up FG opportunities to go for it. Second, the weather in Green Bay in late December is often inclement, sometimes making for suboptimal kicking conditions.
Will Reichard (MIN): 9% rostered
- Next Opponents: @SEA, GB, @DET
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Dare we recommend a kicker who has missed his last three attempts? Well, going into his Monday-night game against the Bears, Reichard was averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game and had kicked multiple field goals in 5-of-8 games this season. Reichard is tethered to a strong offense, and Vikings kickers have combined for 128 fantasy points, fifth-most in the league. We believe he’s streamable despite the recent slump.
FOOL’S GOLD
Ty Johnson was a surprise star in the Bills’ impressive Week 15 road win over the Lions, catching five passes for 114 yards. Johnson is a useful contributor to the Buffalo backfield, but he’s sharing backup work with rookie Ray Davis and hasn’t had more than 55 yards from scrimmage in any other game this season.
