Fantasy Football Storylines: Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins (Week 16)

Week 16 is the first and only regular-season week with Saturday NFL contests this year. Coincidentally, two of the week’s more intriguing storylines are in Saturday’s games. The other eye-catching fantasy storyline for Week 16 is on the often-overlooked side of the ball.

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Fantasy Football Storylines

Can Lamar Jackson Figure Out a Frustrating Nemesis?

Lamar Jackson eviscerated the lowly Giants in Week 15. He’s having a fantastic season. However, one of his blemishes this year was a dud against the Steelers in Week 11. Jackson completed only 16 of 33 passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception and ran four times for 46 scoreless yards against Pittsburgh last month.

Jackson’s lousy showing against his AFC North foe wasn’t an outlier. He’s struggled mightily against the Steelers in his career. According to Pro Football Reference, in five career starts and two appearances as a rookie, Jackson has completed only 56.97% of his 165 pass attempts for 1,077 yards, five touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 57 rushes for 308 scoreless yards. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns just once against the Steelers, and his passing yardage outputs in five starts working backward from this year through 2019 were 207, 236, 253, 208 and 161. Yikes.

Gamers with Jackson likely don’t have a choice but to hope he has a better showing against the Steelers than he’s historically had, and T.J. Watt hurt his ankle on Sunday. So, the Steelers might be without their stud edge rusher. Gamers shouldn’t trust Jackson’s pass-catching weapons, though, which is the actionable info for Jackson’s track record against Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.

Can Joe Mixon and Nico Collins Continue to Overcome Their Offense’s Ineptitude?

Houston’s Week 14 bye didn’t fix the offense. Instead, the Texans had 12 first downs, 181 total yards, 3.6 yards per play and 20 points in 11 drives at home against the visiting Dolphins.

Joe Mixon ran 12 times for 23 scoreless yards but somewhat salvaged his day in half point per reception (half PPR) and PPR formats by totaling five receptions for 33 scoreless yards on six targets. Mixon was tied for the team lead in targets and paced the Texans in receptions and receiving yards in Week 15.

Obviously, Nico Collins didn’t have a huge receiving effort. He had six targets, four receptions and 17 receiving yards. Fortunately, Collins saved his day with two touchdown receptions.

Mixon has had fewer than 60 scrimmage yards in two of his previous three games, failing to score touchdowns in either effort. However, he sandwiched his duds around 101 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, four receptions, and 18 receiving yards against the Jaguars in Week 13. In 12-team leagues or larger, gamers probably need to hold their nose and hope Mixon’s volume is enough for him to help their team. In 10-team leagues or smaller, it’s not outrageous to consider benching Mixon. Entering Week 15, the Chiefs had allowed the fewest half PPR points per game (14.6) to running backs this year.

Collins is an easier pill to swallow. In nine games this year, Houston’s alpha No. 1 wide receiver has exceeded 115 receiving yards four times, cleared 75 seven times, bested 50 eight times and had two touchdowns in Week 15 on his season-low 17 receiving yards. Collins is out of this world, and it doesn’t matter how the rest of the offense is functioning.

Gamers shouldn’t get cute and start Tank Dell. His quarterback isn’t good enough to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass-catching options. C.J. Stroud is enduring a sophomore slump and stinks on the road and outdoors. According to Pro Football Reference, in 14 career games on the road, Stroud has had 217.1 passing yards per game, 7.08 adjusted yards per attempt, 13 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. In nine career starts outdoors, Stroud has completed only 57.97% of his passes for 202 passing yards per game, 6.78 adjusted yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.

Will the Three Double-Digit Home Favorites Deliver Fantasy-Friendly Defensive Performances?

According to Betting Pros, the Falcons are 10.0-point favorites against the visiting Giants, the Packers are 12.5-point favorites at Lambeau Field against the Saints and the Bills are 14.0-point favorites against the Patriots in Western New York in Week 16. Fantasy defenses can score points by keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. However, the impactful defensive performances in fantasy leagues have sacks and turnovers. The most straightforward path to piling up fantasy points on defense is putting the opposing offense in apparent passing situations and forcing the offensive line to protect in straight dropback scenarios. When defenses can pin their ears back against a one-dimensional offense, they can tee off. The Bills, Packers and Falcons are among the most desirable fantasy defenses in Week 16.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.