FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 16
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
The most substantial sample we have for Michael Penix Jr. in the NFL has been his 16 preseason dropbacks, where he had a 6.3% big-time throw rate, an 8.6 average depth of target (aDOT) and a 56.3% adjusted completion rate. Even that is too small to pull anything substantial from. During his final collegiate season, among 144 qualifying FBS passers, Penix Jr. was impressive, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, 10th in big-time throw rate, 27th in aDOT and 39th in adjusted completion rate.
The strong-armed rookie isn’t afraid of chucking it deep, as he led all FBS quarterbacks last year in deep passing attempts. This is a great matchup to ease Penix Jr. into the starting role. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating and the 12th-highest completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). Across their last five games, this secondary has continually been gutted by deep passing, allowing the third-highest passer rating and CPOE to deep passing.
Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff have torched the Bills in consecutive games. Both NFC quarterbacks had an embarrassment of riches in the passing attack, and rookie Drake Maye’s weapons would be afterthoughts for the Rams and Lions. Nevertheless, Maye’s rushing ability elevates his floor and ceiling despite his lackluster — putting it mildly — supporting cast.
Maye has made nine starts this year. However, he was knocked out of one start early with a concussion. In the other eight starts, Maye completed 69.4% of his pass attempts for 231.6 passing yards per game, 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Maye’s passing work wasn’t outstanding, but it was rock-solid. However, he also had 37.6 rushing yards per game, 8.14 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown.
In that eight-game sample, Maye scored 18.7 fantasy points per game. Maye will likely be stuck dropping back in a negative game script, but he’s an appealing fantasy start sit Superflex streamer since he’s demonstrated the ability to score fantasy points in similar compromised game scripts.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Matt LaFleur and the Packers love to run the football. They are second in run rate (51.2%) this season and tied for fourth in rushing yardage per game (144.4). Their efficiency on the ground is down due to a lower success rate (40.9%), but they still rank 11th in expected points added/run (-0.03). This has brought high volume usage for Josh Jacobs, the fantasy RB4.
Jacobs ranks third in rushing yardage (1,147) and he is tied for second in rushing touchdowns (12). He has been the most valuable fantasy running back over the last four weeks, a stretch that has included eight trips to the end zone. Jacobs will be the focal point of this offense as the season closes.
It has not panned out how the Falcons had hoped this year with them eventually having to take Kirk Cousins out to the woodshed and usher in Michael Penix in his place. One thing that has worked out though is Bijan Robinson, whose lack of usage under Arthur Smith was tantamount to war crimes against the fantasy football community and those who enjoy seeing good players get touches.
In 2023, Robinson had three games over 19 total touches and was frequently taken off the field in the red zone. This season, Robinson has seven games over 19 touches and averages almost three touches per game inside the red zone. Robinson has a single game below 100 total yards in his last nine and has been a top-10 back in all but two of those games. The Giants are dead and buried right now, allowing the second-highest yards per carry (4.94) and a league-high explosive run rate of 7.9%. Robinson could propel you to the championship round this weekend.
The Texans rank as the fourth-toughest opponent for fantasy running backs, giving up just 16.1 points per game. This wouldn’t be an issue if Pacheco were in his early-season workhorse role, but his usage since returning from injury has been far from ideal. Last week, his third week back, Pacheco saw essentially identical usage to Kareem Hunt.
The veteran and the third-year back saw the same number of snaps (28 or 37%), rush attempts (13) and targets (one). The only piece of usage where they diverged was routes, as Hunt ran eight to Pacheco’s seven… while Samaje Perine beat them both (11). In a bad matchup with lackluster usage, Pacheco is someone to bench if you have another option for Week 16.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
Jalen McMillan has finally clicked with Baker Mayfield in the last two weeks. He has three touchdowns and has become the true No. 2 WR receiver in this offense, at the expense of tight end Cade Otton.
This week, McMillan has been gifted a dream matchup versus Amani Oruwariye of the Dallas Cowboys. According to Fantasy Points, Oruwariye allows o.38 fantasy points per route run. This is the fourth-most of any cornerback in the NFL. He is also being targeted on a whopping 22.8% of routes run against him, which is the second-most of all corners in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin has had a career year with Jayden Daniels in Washington. He has a career-high 11 receiving touchdowns after totaling 25 over his first six seasons in the NFL. The former Ohio State star is the WR5 for the year, averaging 13.9 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, McLaurin has been on fire lately, averaging 82.7 receiving yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 21.6 fantasy points per game over his past three contests. The star receiver has had 11.4+ fantasy points in all but one game since Week 2.
Unfortunately, that lone exception came in Week 11 against the Eagles’ elite secondary. Philadelphia held McLaurin to only one reception on two targets for 10 receiving yards and 1.5 fantasy points in the win, as the superstar set season lows in every category. Furthermore, the NFC East division leaders have surrendered only 22.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the fewest in the NFL. They’ve given up 18.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past six weeks, allowing 13.7 or fewer in all but two outings.
It’s not often you see someone with 10+ receptions but with just 82 receiving yards. Especially not from a downfield threat like Malik Nabers. This isn’t Wan’Dale Robinson we are talking about here (who you could certainly see getting 80 yards on 10 catches). Nabers had 14 total targets for 86 air yards, but only 82 receiving yards. Only DeVonta Smith had a lower average depth of target (aDOT). His inability to get yards after the catch in Week 15 was something that held him back from a truly monstrous game for fantasy managers.
However, this lack of yards after the catch is not a new problem for Nabers this year. Consider this: Nabers has 140 targets (second in the NFL) and 90 receptions (fourth in the NFL). However, he has just 290 yards after the catch. Those 290 yards after the catch are the same number as Marvin Mims Jr. The issue is that Nabers has 140 targets on the season and Mims has just 34. Nabers has 90 catches. Mims has 23. This is partially a quarterback problem as a better passer could get him the ball with space more often. Next season, we will all be looking for Nabers to combine the usage and opportunity with more accurate targets.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Since Week 8, Jonnu Smith has been the TE4 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished lower than TE7 in weekly scoring since Week 11. Since Week 10, the 49ers have utilized single high at the third-highest rate (66.9%).
Since Week 8, against single high, Smith has had a 17.8% target share, 2.29 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 19.3% first-read share. Smith will get fed volume again this week, but this is a rough matchup for him. San Francisco has held tight ends to the fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game.
Strange as it may seem, second-year tight end Brenton Strange led all tight ends with a whopping 12 targets in Week 15. He caught 11 for 73 yards, turning in a very solid 12.8 half-PPR-point outing. Overall, Strange has now averaged 8.6 half-PPR points in five games without Evan Engram.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if that number trends upward to finish the season. Four of Strange’s games without Engram came early in the season, with both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis healthy. In those games, he averaged just a 13% target share on a 62% route participation rate. On Sunday, with Kirk and Davis out for the season, he posted a 26% target share on a 78% participation rate.
He won’t see 12 targets every week, but there’s a very real chance Strange simply finishes the season as a fringe TE1, especially with good matchups against the Raiders and Titans. After all, stranger things have happened (sorry).
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